HFQ Snippet 27[?] a

evilauthor wrote:

n7axw wrote:Just a couple of thoughts here. First, if Nybar is going to retreat, he pretty well has to do it right away, keeping as much of that 250 miles between him and BGV as possible. Otherwise he'd just as well stay forted up and hunker down. I doubt that this would be a winner for him any more than than it was for that bunch of Temple Loyalists at Ft. Tairys. Nybar would take attritional losses moving toward Guernak given the winter marching conditions. but the Temple's supply situation seens to be improving at least somewhat so Nybar could benefit by the shortening of his supply lines. He might not lose as many people as we think.

Except the biggest thing that would kill his troops on the move right now isn't lack of supplies. It's the weather. Remember that the AoG lacks winter clothing.

If Nybar moves out right now, the only people of his that reach their destination are going to be the few with adequate winter clothing. EVERYONE ELSE is going to be dead of frostbite and/or hypothermia.

And the Charisian won't have needed to fire a single shot to wipe out that entire army.

Supplies include food to provide energy for the body to combat hypthermia and hopfully some winter clothing to go along with it.

I'm not saying that Nybar will get off without attritional losses, only that this is his best option for retaining at least part of his command in the service of the Temple.

The alternative virtually guarantees the complete loss of his army

Don

n7axw wrote:

The alternative virtually guarantees the complete loss of his army.

I think Nybar held a party, and Weber showed up and wrote, "Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin" on the wall.

~Tonto

n7axw wrote:Supplies include food to provide energy for the body to combat hypthermia and hopfully some winter clothing to go along with it.

Given the winter conditions described, I don't think a steady supply of food is going to make a difference. Not for a march that could well take several five-days to get to the nearest available shelter (which could well be occupied by other troops).

Those troops certainly can't stay awake the entire trip and don't want to go to sleep without adequate insulation. Too much chance many of them won't wake up again.

evilauthor wrote:

n7axw wrote:Supplies include food to provide energy for the body to combat hypthermia and hopfully some winter clothing to go along with it.

Given the winter conditions described, I don't think a steady supply of food is going to make a difference. Not for a march that could well take several five-days to get to the nearest available shelter (which could well be occupied by other troops).

Those troops certainly can't stay awake the entire trip and don't want to go to sleep without adequate insulation. Too much chance many of them won't wake up again.

I suppose that would depend upon wether Fairkyn is isolated OR wether there is a chain of towns/villages down the line to Guarnak - I can't think of any textev either way.

Don't forget that Nybar is significantly better equipped than Preskyt was. IIRC, he was given all the available winter kit before being sent forward to Fairkyn in the fall, and his people will [permitted to or not] have short-stopped a portion of everything that has come forward since. He's also a pretty sharp cookie, and may succeed in improvising well enough to be able to get a significant number of men out in reasonable condition. A steady supply of food matters a lot, too: given enough calories to burn you can survive with surprisingly light clothing. The critical things are not to get exhausted - and food helps with that - and protecting the extremities. It's the hands and feet that are the real vulnerabilities.

"better equipped" is a long way from "well equipped", of course, but it's not a given he'll be looking like the Grande Armee westbound at the Polish border when he gets back within reach of Guarnak.

However, he's also bloody-minded enough to know that a force like his is, at worst, going to do a better job of fighting to the last man than the Marines and RSA pikemen did on the Daivyn - giving the commanders behind him a similarly good chance to build positions that can be held. And he will also know that, unlike those 'heretics', he can surrender when he thinks that that has been accomplished and the slaughter will _stop_. Staying right where he is is a much stronger option than some may think.

isaac_newton wrote:

evilauthor wrote:
Given the winter conditions described, I don't think a steady supply of food is going to make a difference. Not for a march that could well take several five-days to get to the nearest available shelter (which could well be occupied by other troops).

Those troops certainly can't stay awake the entire trip and don't want to go to sleep without adequate insulation. Too much chance many of them won't wake up again.

I suppose that would depend upon wether Fairkyn is isolated OR wether there is a chain of towns/villages down the line to Guarnak - I can't think of any textev either way.

Given the winter and its effects on the AoG, is it even necessary to take out Fairkyn and Nybar until after Guarnak has been secured? If Nybar can't move, leave his 11000 in Fairkyn and go for what remains of Wyrsham in Guarnak. Taking Guarnak would cut off anything heading to Fairkyn and leave them for some of BGVs follow up troops to take at leisure. Without those 11000 and all their training riflemen, Wyrsham could not stand against BGVs advancced forces, especially if the the forces at the lake go active in the same time frame.

ksandgren wrote:Given the winter and its effects on the AoG, is it even necessary to take out Fairkyn and Nybar until after Guarnak has been secured? If Nybar can't move, leave his 11000 in Fairkyn and go for what remains of Wyrsham in Guarnak. Taking Guarnak would cut off anything heading to Fairkyn and leave them for some of BGVs follow up troops to take at leisure. Without those 11000 and all their training riflemen, Wyrsham could not stand against BGVs advancced forces, especially if the the forces at the lake go active in the same time frame.

Certainly a thought, an interesting idea, even. Nybar probably wouldn't go after BGV once he was bypassed, at least.

Don

n7axw wrote:

ksandgren wrote:Given the winter and its effects on the AoG, is it even necessary to take out Fairkyn and Nybar until after Guarnak has been secured? If Nybar can't move, leave his 11000 in Fairkyn and go for what remains of Wyrsham in Guarnak. Taking Guarnak would cut off anything heading to Fairkyn and leave them for some of BGVs follow up troops to take at leisure. Without those 11000 and all their training riflemen, Wyrsham could not stand against BGVs advancced forces, especially if the the forces at the lake go active in the same time frame.

Certainly a thought, an interesting idea, even. Nybar probably wouldn't go after BGV once he was bypassed, at least.

Don

I don't think he would bypass without leaving a strong screening force in place.

ksandgren wrote:Given the winter and its effects on the AoG, is it even necessary to take out Fairkyn and Nybar until after Guarnak has been secured? If Nybar can't move, leave his 11000 in Fairkyn and go for what remains of Wyrsham in Guarnak. Taking Guarnak would cut off anything heading to Fairkyn and leave them for some of BGVs follow up troops to take at leisure. Without those 11000 and all their training riflemen, Wyrsham could not stand against BGVs advancced forces, especially if the the forces at the lake go active in the same time frame.

Guarnak is too far away. it will be Spring mud-season before BGV could get there. Fairkyn is a canal nexus that BGV needs to secure resupply from the north and to threaten the New Northland province as well as Guarnak.

Taking Fairkyn and Ohlaren (sp) puts enough flanking pressure on Wyrsham that he can't defend in two directions against BGV and the blocking force in the Sylmahn Gap. Those two cities (and St Zahns (sp) are reachable with a winter advantage, while Guarnak isn't, even if BGV were to strike overland due Southeast through a possible pass through the Ice Ash Mtns (under the AOG shield on the map) which would leave him stranded between Guarnak and Fairkyn without easy resupply and reinforcement.

It's not a good idea to leave a live enemy behind you.

Weird Harold wrote: SNIP

Guarnak is too far away. it will be Spring mud-season before BGV could get there. Fairkyn is a canal nexus that BGV needs to secure resupply from the north and to threaten the New Northland province as well as Guarnak.

Taking Fairkyn and Ohlaren (sp) puts enough flanking pressure on Wyrsham that he can't defend in two directions against BGV and the blocking force in the Sylmahn Gap. Those two cities (and St Zahns (sp) are reachable with a winter advantage, while Guarnak isn't, even if BGV were to strike overland due Southeast through a possible pass through the Ice Ash Mtns (under the AOG shield on the map) which would leave him stranded between Guarnak and Fairkyn without easy resupply and reinforcement.

It's not a good idea to leave a live enemy behind you.

I think that we felt that the 'pass' was non existant, otherwise Wrysham would have driven a froce right down it and taken Serabor from the rear in the days of his ascendency.