HFQ Snippet 27[?] a

AClone wrote:

Technis wrote:

How did the Church find out about it then?

This means that the element of surprise is gone. Casualties for the attacker will go up significantly.

I'm going to take it that they had "secondhand" reports then--perhaps such as inference from communication being cut off, or a drover from a supply lizard train who blundered into an ICA patrol--and was allowed/managed to escape.

Hi AClone,

Given the care that BGV took to surround Esthyr’s Abbey, I engaged in the fantasy that BGV could make a surprise attack Fairkyn. I should have given it some thought.

Here is what RFC let us know: Wyrshym can’t reinforce Esthyr’s Abbey until “winter released its grip”.

Esthyr’s Abbey was twice as far from Guarnak, and even though he was down to only forty-five hundred men, little more than seventy-five percent of his paper strength, keeping them fed over a thousand-mile long winter supply line was still a nightmare.

The ragged state of his logistics prevented him from sustaining a bigger force at Esthyr’s Abbey, but he’d begun building up supplies at Fairkyn to support Nybar and the heavier forces he’d earmarked to support him if Green Valley got past Esthyr’s Abbey. As soon as winter released its grip and further improvements in his supply line allowed Vicar Rhobair to move up the promised reinforcements, he intended to massively reinforce Nybar.

Given that Wyrshym couldn’t reinforce Esthyr’s Abbey, and Allyntyn is a lot closer to Esthyr’s Abbey than any force that Wyrshym commands, Wyrshym must expect BGV to overrun Esthyr’s Abbey before Wyrshym can get there with his promised reinforcements. So, Esthyr’s Abbey had effective become a forward sentry that Wyrshym expects to lose. Given those facts, what Wyrshym would want most is notification that BGV is advancing, and if at all possible intelligence on BGV’s forces. With that in mind Wyrshym take steps to protect Nybar from any backlash when Esthyr’s Abbey falls.

Preskyt was instructed to keep Nybar fully informed of his situation but reported directly to Wyrshym at Guarnak. It was an awkward arrangement, yet Green Valley understood why it had been adopted, and he had to respect Wyrshym’s reasoning. The bishop militant had arranged to keep Nybar out of the chain of command between himself and Preskyt in order to protect Nybar from the Grand Inquisitor if things went poorly at Esthyr’s Abbey. Nybar would be fully informed about what was happening to Preskyt’s command but free of any direct responsibility for it . . . and free to make his own decisions without looking over his shoulder at his own inquisitors and intendants.

Esthry’s Abbey’s fall was known as soon as the schedule of semaphore reports failed, and the fact that no one escaped was known when forward semaphores didn’t report any escapees. Indeed it is probable that Wyrshym can now locate BGV’s 1st Corp by the semaphores that are no longer reporting to him.

Notice, RFC still hasn’t given us any indication of how fast BGV is advancing. His 1st Corp is comprised of the 4th Mountain Division on snowshoes, 2 battalions of scout snipers on cross country skis, and the 3rd Mounted Brigade. Of these three groups, the mountain division is the slowest with the snowshoes. However, if the 4th is rotating the troops at the head of the column, the troops should be spending most of their time moving over packed snow. I will be surprised if BGV is traveling any slower than 25 miles per day. That would have meant roughly 10 days to Esthyr’s Abbey, and another 20 days to Fairkyn.

The question for Wyrshym, is whether he can reinforce Fairkyn with his existing forces before BGV gets there, and if he can’t, will he have Nybar begin a retreat.

James

JRM wrote: SNIP
Esthry’s Abbey’s fall was known as soon as the schedule of semaphore reports failed, and the fact that no one escaped was known when forward semaphores didn’t report any escapees. Indeed it is probable that Wyrshym can now locate BGV’s 1st Corp by the semaphores that are no longer reporting to him.

Notice, RFC still hasn’t given us any indication of how fast BGV is advancing. His 1st Corp is comprised of the 4th Mountain Division on snowshoes, 2 battalions of scout snipers on cross country skis, and the 3rd Mounted Brigade. Of these three groups, the mountain division is the slowest with the snowshoes. However, if the 4th is rotating the troops at the head of the column, the troops should be spending most of their time moving over packed snow. I will be surprised if BGV is traveling any slower than 25 miles per day. That would have meant roughly 10 days to Esthyr’s Abbey, and another 20 days to Fairkyn.

The question for Wyrshym, is whether he can reinforce Fairkyn with his existing forces before BGV gets there, and if he can’t, will he have Nybar begin a retreat.

James

We know that Nybar has about 11000 men in 5 infantry divisons + 8 cavalry regiments. [snippet 26]

That compares to the Abbey, where Preskyt had just over 4,000 men in 2 infantry divisions.

I guess that Wrysham will be v concerned aboyt Nybar given how quickly the Abbey fell. So he might be tempted to order a retreat. On the other hand, Nybar has a lot more men, is warned, and will be well dug in at Fairkyn, whereas trying to retreat on foot thru the winter would:
1) decimate the Army of the Fairkyn, which is not in a good state anyway, and not equiped for such a task.
2) expose it to much easier defeat in the open if BGV can catch up.

I think he will reluctantly order him to hold.

I suspect that The answer to Wyrhsym is or at least should be not to reinforce. Looking at a map, the distances look similar, but several factors need to be considered. First, BGV is already on the move and Wyrshym would have to get organized which means that BGV has a small but meaningful head start. Secondly, Wyrshym's people are not equiped for winter travel and the attrition will be high if he tries to reinforce. Finally, to reinforce is to make it easier for BGV to defeat him in detail. His forces in Guernak and the gap are already at bare bones with no margin for safety.

Nybar should be ordered to retreat toward Guernak. There will still be the attritional losses, but a majority will make it, and this allows Wyrshym to consolodate and get his numbers back up.

Don

n7axw wrote:I suspect that The answer to Wyrhsym is or at least should be not to reinforce. Looking at a map, the distances look similar, but several factors need to be considered. First, BGV is already on the move and Wyrshym would have to get organized which means that BGV has a small but meaningful head start. Secondly, Wyrshym's people are not equiped for winter travel and the attrition will be high if he tries to reinforce. Finally, to reinforce is to make it easier for BGV to defeat him in detail. His forces in Guernak and the gap are already at bare bones with no margin for safety.

Nybar should be ordered to retreat toward Guernak. There will still be the attritional losses, but a majority will make it, and this allows Wyrshym to consolodate and get his numbers back up.

Don

Good point about BGV already being on the move.

How far is the retreat to Guarnak, in comparison to Napolean's retreat from Moscow, say to the Polish-Russian border. The attritional losses could be pretty significant!

isaac_newton wrote:

n7axw wrote:Nybar should be ordered to retreat toward Guernak. There will still be the attritional losses, but a majority will make it, and this allows Wyrshym to consolodate and get his numbers back up.

Don

Good point about BGV already being on the move.

How far is the retreat to Guarnak, in comparison to Napolean's retreat from Moscow, say to the Polish-Russian border. The attritional losses could be pretty significant!

BGV is likely to be able to hit Nybar's forces along that retreat, right? With the Temple troops poorly clothed, poorly fed, without entrenchments.... It doesn't sound, in that case, that they are improving their odds of survival. Not that they can.

If Nybar started retreating promptly, he would still have several hundred miles of head start on BGV. He would undoubtedly have severe losses to the weather, but he'd probably get away. I doubt that he would be confronting partisan groups like Napoleon did. In fact, the closer he gets to Guernak, the better his supply situation looks because he is moving toward the supply head.

Don

isaac_newton wrote:

We know that Nybar has about 11000 men in 5 infantry divisons + 8 cavalry regiments. [snippet 26]

That compares to the Abbey, where Preskyt had just over 4,000 men in 2 infantry divisions.

I guess that Wrysham will be v concerned aboyt Nybar given how quickly the Abbey fell. So he might be tempted to order a retreat. On the other hand, Nybar has a lot more men, is warned, and will be well dug in at Fairkyn, whereas trying to retreat on foot thru the winter would:
1) decimate the Army of the Fairkyn, which is not in a good state anyway, and not equiped for such a task.
2) expose it to much easier defeat in the open if BGV can catch up.

I think he will reluctantly order him to hold.

That was a good reminder about relative sizes.

The distance from Ste. Esthyr's Abby to Fairkyn is about the same as the distance from Guarnak to Ohlarhn (about 450 mi. vs 400 mi.). There's about 200 miles of distance from Ohlarhn to Fairkyn if Wyrshym travels by high road to the Ice-Ash, then South. Green Valley can travel by high road most of the way, but he will have to spend some time passifying Ste. Zhana.

On the other hand, Wyrshym can't reinforce because his army can't travel in these conditions.

Once Green Valley conquers Ste. Zhana, Wyrshym will know how fast Green Valley is travelling, so he'll know about when Green Valley will arive at Fairkyn. He can't do anything about it. The other half of Green Valley's winter combat troops may be sealing off the available exits from Fairkyn.

I think it's after that point at which travel becomes available to Wyrshym. If so, then Fairkyn is lost to Wyrshym, and he knows it. I think the Guarnak-Ice Ash canal is empty based on the altitude of the surrounding terrain (Safeholdin?), so Wyrshym's choice will be to send a force up the high road toward Ohlarhn, or to retreat. With limited supplies, poor conditions, and inferior weaponry he knows his only viable choice is to retreat. The question now becomes how much of his force in the gap can he save?

It's 250 miles from the Sylmahn Gap to Guarnak, and if Wyrshym is fast, he can just get his forces to Guarnak before Green Valley arrives. Oops, the canal to Guarnak is working, so Wyrshym can travel quickly. On the other hand, there are ironclads operating in the canal. Wryshym may be faced with the choice of draining the canal and abandoning his barges, or watching them get blown up. So, dry canal bed...his forces flee the Sylmahn Gap in early, early Spring, being chased all the way by Siddarmarkians. Attrition is ferocious. A remnant arrives in Guarnak, where they join with the rest of Wyrshym's forces. They barely have time to flee Guarnak.

Siddarmarkians are on the outskirts of Guarnak. Green Valley is 200 miles North. A couple of five-days later Green Valley joins up in Guarnak. Charis begins repairing the Guarnak-Sylmahn locks for their communications. Zion begins repairing the Hildermoss locks for theirs.

After a short delay Green Valley begins driving toward Five Forks while lock repairs continue along the Guarnak-Ice Ash and down the Hildermoss.

Green Valley needn't worry about Kaitsworth because of Eastshare's threat on the Daivyn. In fact, it's possible no one needs to worry about Kaitsworth because of the Charisian Navy's threat on Dairnyth.

So, we have boucoups Harchongians joining up with Wyrshym near Lake Maysn. Eastshare eliminating Kaitsworth and Dohlar, possibly up the Dairnyth-Alyksberg Canal.

What about the threat up or down the New Northland Canal? Charis will take enough of it to control vital locks. Zion will keep enough of it to control their end--at least until Green Valley captures the New Northland Canal-Hildermoss junction. Lake Isyk is going to be interesting this year.

What holes do you see in this scenario?

~Tonto

Tonto Silerheels wrote:isaac_newton wrote:

We know that Nybar has about 11000 men in 5 infantry divisons + 8 cavalry regiments. [snippet 26]

That compares to the Abbey, where Preskyt had just over 4,000 men in 2 infantry divisions.

I guess that Wrysham will be v concerned aboyt Nybar given how quickly the Abbey fell. So he might be tempted to order a retreat. On the other hand, Nybar has a lot more men, is warned, and will be well dug in at Fairkyn, whereas trying to retreat on foot thru the winter would:
1) decimate the Army of the Fairkyn, which is not in a good state anyway, and not equiped for such a task.
2) expose it to much easier defeat in the open if BGV can catch up.

I think he will reluctantly order him to hold.

That was a good reminder about relative sizes.

The distance from Ste. Esthyr's Abby to Fairkyn is about the same as the distance from Guarnak to Ohlarhn (about 450 mi. vs 400 mi.). There's about 200 miles of distance from Ohlarhn to Fairkyn if Wyrshym travels by high road to the Ice-Ash, then South. Green Valley can travel by high road most of the way, but he will have to spend some time passifying Ste. Zhana.

On the other hand, Wyrshym can't reinforce because his army can't travel in these conditions.

Once Green Valley conquers Ste. Zhana, Wyrshym will know how fast Green Valley is travelling, so he'll know about when Green Valley will arive at Fairkyn. He can't do anything about it. The other half of Green Valley's winter combat troops may be sealing off the available exits from Fairkyn.

I think it's after that point at which travel becomes available to Wyrshym. If so, then Fairkyn is lost to Wyrshym, and he knows it. I think the Guarnak-Ice Ash canal is empty based on the altitude of the surrounding terrain (Safeholdin?), so Wyrshym's choice will be to send a force up the high road toward Ohlarhn, or to retreat. With limited supplies, poor conditions, and inferior weaponry he knows his only viable choice is to retreat. The question now becomes how much of his force in the gap can he save?

It's 250 miles from the Sylmahn Gap to Guarnak, and if Wyrshym is fast, he can just get his forces to Guarnak before Green Valley arrives. Oops, the canal to Guarnak is working, so Wyrshym can travel quickly. On the other hand, there are ironclads operating in the canal. Wryshym may be faced with the choice of draining the canal and abandoning his barges, or watching them get blown up. So, dry canal bed...his forces flee the Sylmahn Gap in early, early Spring, being chased all the way by Siddarmarkians. Attrition is ferocious. A remnant arrives in Guarnak, where they join with the rest of Wyrshym's forces. They barely have time to flee Guarnak.

Siddarmarkians are on the outskirts of Guarnak. Green Valley is 200 miles North. A couple of five-days later Green Valley joins up in Guarnak. Charis begins repairing the Guarnak-Sylmahn locks for their communications. Zion begins repairing the Hildermoss locks for theirs.

After a short delay Green Valley begins driving toward Five Forks while lock repairs continue along the Guarnak-Ice Ash and down the Hildermoss.

Green Valley needn't worry about Kaitsworth because of Eastshare's threat on the Daivyn. In fact, it's possible no one needs to worry about Kaitsworth because of the Charisian Navy's threat on Dairnyth.

So, we have boucoups Harchongians joining up with Wyrshym near Lake Maysn. Eastshare eliminating Kaitsworth and Dohlar, possibly up the Dairnyth-Alyksberg Canal.

What about the threat up or down the New Northland Canal? Charis will take enough of it to control vital locks. Zion will keep enough of it to control their end--at least until Green Valley captures the New Northland Canal-Hildermoss junction. Lake Isyk is going to be interesting this year.

What holes do you see in this scenario?

~Tonto

Just a couple of thoughts here. First, if Nybar is going to retreat, he pretty well has to do it right away, keeping as much of that 250 miles between him and BGV as possible. Otherwise he'd just as well stay forted up and hunker down. I doubt that this would be a winner for him any more than than it was for that bunch of Temple Loyalists at Ft. Tairys. Nybar would take attritional losses moving toward Guernak given the winter marching conditions. but the Temple's supply situation seens to be improving at least somewhat so Nybar could benefit by the shortening of his supply lines. He might not lose as many people as we think.

My other thought here is that Kaitswryth is not a factor in this scenario. Right now he's holed up along the Daivyn in Cliff Peak. So different theater. IIRC, he is facing Symkyms who has more than enough people to deal with him when the moment is right when you consider the allies superior artillery.

As for DE, we're really not sure where he is at or what he is doing. We do have some textev of a movement out of Roymark toward Cheryk of a significant allied force. That sounds like reinforcements for Hanth who was a bit undermanned for confronting a Rychtar reinforced from Dohlar. Or maybe DE or EHM is focusing on running Ahlverez's survivors to ground. We don't know. We need a bit more text for rounding out that picture.

Don

Tonto Silerheels wrote:isaac_newton wrote:

We know that Nybar has about 11000 men in 5 infantry divisons + 8 cavalry regiments. [snippet 26]

That compares to the Abbey, where Preskyt had just over 4,000 men in 2 infantry divisions.

I guess that Wrysham will be v concerned aboyt Nybar given how quickly the Abbey fell. So he might be tempted to order a retreat. On the other hand, Nybar has a lot more men, is warned, and will be well dug in at Fairkyn, whereas trying to retreat on foot thru the winter would:
1) decimate the Army of the Fairkyn, which is not in a good state anyway, and not equiped for such a task.
2) expose it to much easier defeat in the open if BGV can catch up.

I think he will reluctantly order him to hold.

That was a good reminder about relative sizes.

The distance from Ste. Esthyr's Abby to Fairkyn is about the same as the distance from Guarnak to Ohlarhn (about 450 mi. vs 400 mi.). There's about 200 miles of distance from Ohlarhn to Fairkyn if Wyrshym travels by high road to the Ice-Ash, then South. Green Valley can travel by high road most of the way, but he will have to spend some time passifying Ste. Zhana.

On the other hand, Wyrshym can't reinforce because his army can't travel in these conditions.

Once Green Valley conquers Ste. Zhana, Wyrshym will know how fast Green Valley is travelling, so he'll know about when Green Valley will arive at Fairkyn. He can't do anything about it. The other half of Green Valley's winter combat troops may be sealing off the available exits from Fairkyn.

I think it's after that point at which travel becomes available to Wyrshym. If so, then Fairkyn is lost to Wyrshym, and he knows it. I think the Guarnak-Ice Ash canal is empty based on the altitude of the surrounding terrain (Safeholdin?), so Wyrshym's choice will be to send a force up the high road toward Ohlarhn, or to retreat. With limited supplies, poor conditions, and inferior weaponry he knows his only viable choice is to retreat. The question now becomes how much of his force in the gap can he save?

It's 250 miles from the Sylmahn Gap to Guarnak, and if Wyrshym is fast, he can just get his forces to Guarnak before Green Valley arrives. Oops, the canal to Guarnak is working, so Wyrshym can travel quickly. On the other hand, there are ironclads operating in the canal. Wryshym may be faced with the choice of draining the canal and abandoning his barges, or watching them get blown up. So, dry canal bed...his forces flee the Sylmahn Gap in early, early Spring, being chased all the way by Siddarmarkians. Attrition is ferocious. A remnant arrives in Guarnak, where they join with the rest of Wyrshym's forces. They barely have time to flee Guarnak.

Siddarmarkians are on the outskirts of Guarnak. Green Valley is 200 miles North. A couple of five-days later Green Valley joins up in Guarnak. Charis begins repairing the Guarnak-Sylmahn locks for their communications. Zion begins repairing the Hildermoss locks for theirs.

After a short delay Green Valley begins driving toward Five Forks while lock repairs continue along the Guarnak-Ice Ash and down the Hildermoss.

Green Valley needn't worry about Kaitsworth because of Eastshare's threat on the Daivyn. In fact, it's possible no one needs to worry about Kaitsworth because of the Charisian Navy's threat on Dairnyth.

So, we have boucoups Harchongians joining up with Wyrshym near Lake Maysn. Eastshare eliminating Kaitsworth and Dohlar, possibly up the Dairnyth-Alyksberg Canal.

What about the threat up or down the New Northland Canal? Charis will take enough of it to control vital locks. Zion will keep enough of it to control their end--at least until Green Valley captures the New Northland Canal-Hildermoss junction. Lake Isyk is going to be interesting this year.

What holes do you see in this scenario?

~Tonto

No holes, but one or two considerations...

One definite factor that Wrysham will have to consider is Clyntahn and his minions. That will make him far less keen to withdraw without a fight.

I'd also suspect that Sympkyn will be the one to deal with Kaitsworth. If EoC time that attack right, it will present extra dilemmas for Temple/Harchongese as to which branch of the COG army to concentrate on supporting.

n7axw wrote:Just a couple of thoughts here. First, if Nybar is going to retreat, he pretty well has to do it right away, keeping as much of that 250 miles between him and BGV as possible. Otherwise he'd just as well stay forted up and hunker down. I doubt that this would be a winner for him any more than than it was for that bunch of Temple Loyalists at Ft. Tairys. Nybar would take attritional losses moving toward Guernak given the winter marching conditions. but the Temple's supply situation seens to be improving at least somewhat so Nybar could benefit by the shortening of his supply lines. He might not lose as many people as we think.

Except the biggest thing that would kill his troops on the move right now isn't lack of supplies. It's the weather. Remember that the AoG lacks winter clothing.

If Nybar moves out right now, the only people of his that reach their destination are going to be the few with adequate winter clothing. EVERYONE ELSE is going to be dead of frostbite and/or hypothermia.

And the Charisian won't have needed to fire a single shot to wipe out that entire army.