The Maya Crisis...

... looks like it may be about due with Lacoon Two and Solarian shipping being denied the use of most wormholes.

Maya is far, far out from the Core. OFS wouldn't have been due out there for centuries if not for wormhole links heading out that way. The known ones that may account for that are:
1 - Beowulf-Manticore-Hennesy-(short h-space transit)-Terra Haute-Erewhon-(short h-space transit)
2 - (OFS bases on the outer edge of the Shell?)-Joshua-Erewhon-(short h-space transit)
3 - Roulette-Limbo-(medium-long h-space transit)

(1) and (3) are definitely blocked, and (3) is not even that good. (If another wormhole bridge from around Limbo to around Maya makes it better, you know that's blocked too.) (2) is probably blocked, and the source isn't great for a major operation anyway. (Same proviso for a near-Earth to near-Joshua bridge.)

I doubt Erewhon wants to make clear trouble with the League, but it can probably work out an arrangement with Manticore such that Manticore gets the blame for shutting down their terminus to Joshua to at least SLN traffic, while Erewhon gets either still the merchant traffic and income, or a whole lot of favor credit from the Grand Alliance for "submitting to high-handed Manticoran threats" *wink wink*

This doesn't address unknown wormholes, of course, but I take it that it is highly unlikely that there are any that Manticore has to leave alone that do connect central SLN nodes to Maya.

So, Maya is now practically on its own: precisely what Barregos and Roszak have been waiting for. It's on its own, and "threatened" by Manticore and Haven as a detached lobe of the League. That gives it the pretext for militarization, for more Maya-national institutions, and for responding to the Grand Alliance as it "has" to. It even has a basis for closer ties with Erewhon and other systems in the area, as other polities likewise "threatened" by Manticore and Haven. If you squint, that even looks like standard OFS practice.

They can make what amounts to a break from the League while operating entirely as though they are simply responding as loyal members having to make due under dire circumstances. The fiction may even fly in public and in many private quarters, and if it doesn't, there's precious little the League can do or can get the justification for doing. But between it and Beowulf, it will send the message that secession is possible in case of being a safe effective distance from the Core, or having Manticoran friends. (Or even cooperative Manticoran enemies!)

Just my thinking here, but I'm of the opinion that the Maya Crisis will start from the League side deciding that FF needs to go boot stomp on that uppity (revenue positive) sector as a demonstration to the rest of the League that 'business as usual' means kowtowing to whatever the Mandarins and Transtellars decide it means, aka "freedom and independence as we know it, are dead".

Probably about the time they try to boot stomp Beowulf with Battle Fleet. Meanwhile, the tri-systems of Erewhon, Torch, and Maya will keep building up militarily with that tacit agreement (from Cauldron of Ghosts/Yuri Radamacher as plenipotentiary ambassador) that Haven and therefore the GA has their backs as well. Be fun to see Tourville in action against the SL with the Maya forces, ya think?

That way no one can realistically position Barregos and Rozak as treasonous, if they are put in the position of defending their own systems from the illegal orders issued to the SLN, the same as Beowulf will be doing.

Thoughts?

SharkHunter wrote:Just my thinking here, but I'm of the opinion that the Maya Crisis will start from the League side deciding that FF needs to go boot stomp on that uppity (revenue positive) sector as a demonstration to the rest of the League that 'business as usual' means kowtowing to whatever the Mandarins and Transtellars decide it means, aka "freedom and independence as we know it, are dead".

Probably about the time they try to boot stomp Beowulf with Battle Fleet. Meanwhile, the tri-systems of Erewhon, Torch, and Maya will keep building up militarily with that tacit agreement (from Cauldron of Ghosts/Yuri Radamacher as plenipotentiary ambassador) that Haven and therefore the GA has their backs as well. Be fun to see Tourville in action against the SL with the Maya forces, ya think?

That way no one can realistically position Barregos and Rozak as treasonous, if they are put in the position of defending their own systems from the illegal orders issued to the SLN, the same as Beowulf will be doing.

Thoughts?

The Harington doctrine. The first domino?

SharkHunter wrote:Just my thinking here, but I'm of the opinion that the Maya Crisis will start from the League side deciding that FF needs to go boot stomp on that uppity (revenue positive) sector ...

Wouldn't the FF force ordered to "stomp on that uppity ... sector" be the one commanded by Adm Rozhak? (sp)

I think that the Maya sector's preparations for "the Sepoy Option," especially the military build-up, are going to be largely unnecessary because the Solarian League won't have the military assets to make more than ineffective diplomatic noises.

I think that the will activate it but not actually say anything. Just stop reporting to the league or sending them money.

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Annachie wrote:I think that the will activate it but not actually say anything. Just stop reporting to the league or sending them money.

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I concur. They'll stay under the covers as long as possible, carefully shaping their reports as to avoid extra forces being transferred in or current forces being recalled to deal with some crisis elsewhere in the League.

We readers know the Mandarins are prepared to go after any secessionists other than the Beowulfans with full force. Right now, the Maya Sector Detachment probably doesn't have enough firepower to stop something like the 600 SDs at Tasmania.

Therefore Governor Barregos should be waiting until he(and Erewhon) has at least 60 podlayers in commission and Battle Fleet has been whittled down below a thousand active wallers. And he will be if he doesn't want to end up owing the GA more favours than he has to(e.g. if he needs 100 or 200 GA SD(P)s to show up and save Maya from a SLN fleet).

Indeed, Barregos strikes me as being the sort of person who prefers being owed favours. Maya can collect a few of those by contributing to Manticoran rebuilding and offering a flag for "neutral" merchants to trade under(as well as 100% valid citizenship papers) and possibly as an intermediary between the GA and other potential breakaway sectors.

In return? Well, a discount on MWJ transit fees for several centuries would do nicely.

munroburton wrote:

Annachie wrote:I think that the will activate it but not actually say anything. Just stop reporting to the league or sending them money.

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I concur. They'll stay under the covers as long as possible, carefully shaping their reports as to avoid extra forces being transferred in or current forces being recalled to deal with some crisis elsewhere in the League.

We readers know the Mandarins are prepared to go after any secessionists other than the Beowulfans with full force. Right now, the Maya Sector Detachment probably doesn't have enough firepower to stop something like the 600 SDs at Tasmania.

Therefore Governor Barregos should be waiting until he(and Erewhon) has at least 60 podlayers in commission and Battle Fleet has been whittled down below a thousand active wallers. And he will be if he doesn't want to end up owing the GA more favours than he has to(e.g. if he needs 100 or 200 GA SD(P)s to show up and save Maya from a SLN fleet).

Indeed, Barregos strikes me as being the sort of person who prefers being owed favours. Maya can collect a few of those by contributing to Manticoran rebuilding and offering a flag for "neutral" merchants to trade under(as well as 100% valid citizenship papers) and possibly as an intermediary between the GA and other potential breakaway sectors.

In return? Well, a discount on MWJ transit fees for several centuries would do nicely.

With the crisis of financing for the League government, protectorate service fees may be cranked up - to the extent the Mandarins can remain hopeful that they can do so without the Verge going up in flames on them. (Being confident it won't may be a higher standard of caution than they can afford.)

They - MacArtney specifically - probably know they can't turn the screws on Maya effectively: Barregos may care too much about his popularity to do so; Maya is a bit restive; it's far too exposed to Manticore to be counted on to remain in the League even if Barregos was the most fanatical League nationalist ever; and most importantly, they can't count on any more OFS fist out there than Roszak's units. They don't have any reason to suppose Roszak is just aching to give the League the finger, but the Maya Sector is sufficiently populous, industrialized, technically savvy, and possessed of a common identity that the size boot they'd need to bring it to heel in a pinch is larger than Roszak is wearing (as far as they know!) and they cannot get him a larger one.

So Maya has to be still treated with kid gloves. On the other hand - Barregos can still up "service fees" if he can show the Sector they are being spent locally, for locally approved purposes. If those purposes also match Mandarin interests - e.g., holding Maya for the League and its transtellars, R&D toward equalizing the military tech situation - everyone is happy, and Barregos has the cover to keep growing the Detachment somewhat openly until it can face off against what the League can afford to throw at it.

It may be hard on the first domino to fall, just because, in isolation, the League can throw so much at it. If the domino can get a little warning and get RMN help through the wormhole network, it's going to encourage the other dominos. And if they all start falling (the domino metaphor starts breaking down), then they're all safer from being picked out individually for stomping. Barregos and Roszak may well have contacts far and away for when other sectors are ready to break off - under similarly-minded OFS governors, under revolutionary movements, under Grand Alliance liberators - and be ready to time it so that they will break openly only just before many others are due to.

The Grand Alliance needs people like Barregos to break off. I figure if he needs some military help to make that stick initially, the balance of favors may still be on his side, or at least neutral: particularly when he may not need much help, or help for long, or help that has to travel far off the wormhole network and remain unavailable in a hurry elsewhere.

Heck, if an SLN counter-strike were gathering in a particular place - like that hypothetical base near Joshua - Barregos would collect favors by creating a situation where the GA could whack a lot of light SLN units in concentration.

I expect that the first few OFS breakaways will be directly spurred on by MAlign agents.
Maya will likely go in the second wave of breakaways.

By the time the League could get a reasonably sized force to hit Maya, Rozsak will have at least a couple of squadrons worth of BC(P)s, which means the "reasonably sized" League response is going to be woefully inadequate to engage his fleet.

Kytheros wrote:I expect that the first few OFS breakaways will be directly spurred on by MAlign agents.
Maya will likely go in the second wave of breakaways.

By the time the League could get a reasonably sized force to hit Maya, Rozsak will have at least a couple of squadrons worth of BC(P)s, which means the "reasonably sized" League response is going to be woefully inadequate to engage his fleet.

I've wondered how much the Alignment may have done to pave the way for Barregos and Maya to be the totally respectable, principled, look-up-to-them breakaway state - much like the Renaissance Factor, but out on the Verge and even more above suspicion since it really IS the real deal. I'm sure a lot of his success in not having been nipped in the bud by OFS is due to his own political savvy and care taken, but if the Alignment could, it would do their plans well to have protected him along the way.

JeffEngel wrote:

Kytheros wrote:I expect that the first few OFS breakaways will be directly spurred on by MAlign agents.
Maya will likely go in the second wave of breakaways.

By the time the League could get a reasonably sized force to hit Maya, Rozsak will have at least a couple of squadrons worth of BC(P)s, which means the "reasonably sized" League response is going to be woefully inadequate to engage his fleet.

I've wondered how much the Alignment may have done to pave the way for Barregos and Maya to be the totally respectable, principled, look-up-to-them breakaway state - much like the Renaissance Factor, but out on the Verge and even more above suspicion since it really IS the real deal. I'm sure a lot of his success in not having been nipped in the bud by OFS is due to his own political savvy and care taken, but if the Alignment could, it would do their plans well to have protected him along the way.

I think that he's going to get helped out by their efforts to arrange things for the breakaways that they are responsible for.
They are, after all, not going to rely solely on the actions of those they can't control. They're going to try to have some of their stooges pull the breakaway triggers at the right (for the MAlign) time, and the MAlign will try to screw with the SLN's response as best they can so as to ensure that the breakaways don't go smoothly, and the response causes trouble for the League. Just how successful they'll be, however, is another question.

On the other hand, he is (presumably) completely legit, and the MAlign might want to use him (if he pulls the trigger too early) to demonstrate why the League needs to die - plus, he's probably their best option to get even the Manty-lite that Erewhon has.