Monica attacking Lynx Terminus - Would you take the offer?

Brigade XO wrote:For the Alignment it is a win-win. They think.

It would have been. Too bad, it would have created a much more interesting story line.

I think this may be one of those many points in time and space where we need to understand that it is just very good space opera science fiction.

Or ... one of many good reasons why we enjoy this Fine Forum. It is fun and entertaining to discuss much about nothing. HB of CJ (old coot)

I think I'd probably note that there's no evidence of anyone ever coming out better of it by picking a fight with Manticore (well, except possibly Haven, and given that the government of Haven was violently overthrown twice and they lost both wars with Manticore, I don't think that's a good model to hope for) and pass.

I think that from Tyler's perspective, he knew that he couldn't take on the RMN. What the scheme was banking on was that Manticore would be unwilling to take on the SLN, especially with their situation with Haven unresolved. After all, when all's said, Manticore is small and the League huge.

He was wrong, of course. Even if Tyler had succeeded in taking the Lynx terminus, there is no way that Manticore would have allowed the situation to stand no matter what Tyler or OFS did. But given his relative isolation, it is perhaps at least understandable that he didn't realize that. After all, with the League lurking in the background, he thought that his situation was pretty much bullet proof.

Don

JeffEngel wrote:Timing and surprise would be important. They could certainly wipe away the terminus picket in a rush and hold the terminus against forces coming through it with BC's initially and pods shortly thereafter. Given the conditions of a wormhole assault against a prepared defender, I doubt Manticore would try it. So there goes the terminus picket and the immediate threat from Manticore through the Junction is neutralized. OFS now has the pretext to start moving to intervene.

The RMN shipping through the Quadrant is scattered all over a huge volume of space. It's going to be awhile before they able to try to retake the terminus in strength, and they may not have reports about the missile pods before they do. So Monica can send some of the BC's back to Monica for its defense, and maybe arrange to leave some of the pods there too. In fact, if they can get away with it, I imagine they'd send all the BC's they could get away with back to Monica. It's going to be hard on the terminus once the RMN concentrates to take it, but the BC's back at Monica are much safer and more likely to last until OFS rides to the rescue than ones on the terminus.

And thinking about the timing, a couple month response from OFS might not seem like a deal-breaker for them.

As you say Manticore is extremely unlikely to attempt an assault through the wormhole. And given the distance ("approximately six hundred and twelve light-years from Manticore") even the fastest / most risky hyper transit time is basically 90 days. So they'd assume they had time for the SLN units to arrive before any detachments from Manticore could intervene.


I think they likely underestimated the firepower of the forces already within the Cluster - those alone could have taken the BC's blockading the wormhole. But even then those forces aren't concentrated. It's going to take weeks, at least, to get word out and forces recalled and concentrated. So Monica may well assume that even a slow SLN reaction could come before the forces in Cluster were ready to mount a serious attack. (They're probably wrong about that, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was their thinking)

Jonathan_S wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:Timing and surprise would be important. They could certainly wipe away the terminus picket in a rush and hold the terminus against forces coming through it with BC's initially and pods shortly thereafter. Given the conditions of a wormhole assault against a prepared defender, I doubt Manticore would try it. So there goes the terminus picket and the immediate threat from Manticore through the Junction is neutralized. OFS now has the pretext to start moving to intervene.

The RMN shipping through the Quadrant is scattered all over a huge volume of space. It's going to be awhile before they able to try to retake the terminus in strength, and they may not have reports about the missile pods before they do. So Monica can send some of the BC's back to Monica for its defense, and maybe arrange to leave some of the pods there too. In fact, if they can get away with it, I imagine they'd send all the BC's they could get away with back to Monica. It's going to be hard on the terminus once the RMN concentrates to take it, but the BC's back at Monica are much safer and more likely to last until OFS rides to the rescue than ones on the terminus.

And thinking about the timing, a couple month response from OFS might not seem like a deal-breaker for them.

As you say Manticore is extremely unlikely to attempt an assault through the wormhole. And given the distance ("approximately six hundred and twelve light-years from Manticore") even the fastest / most risky hyper transit time is basically 90 days. So they'd assume they had time for the SLN units to arrive before any detachments from Manticore could intervene.

Well - it would be a bit shorter if they went Manticore-Gregor by wormhole; Gregor-Durandel in h-space; Durandel-Asgard by wormhole; then Asgard into the Quadrant, possibly collecting units along the way. (That route is very little longer to get to Celebrant, for instance, than using the Lynx terminus.) Or Manticore-Beowulf by wormhole, h-space from there to the terminus or Monica. If they are really, really ballsy, there's Manticore-Beowulf by wormhole; Beowulf-Visigoth in h-space; Visigoth-Mesa (!) by wormhole; Mesa-Lynx by h-space.

Still it's going to be more than a few weeks.

I think they likely underestimated the firepower of the forces already within the Cluster - those alone could have taken the BC's blockading the wormhole. But even then those forces aren't concentrated. It's going to take weeks, at least, to get word out and forces recalled and concentrated. So Monica may well assume that even a slow SLN reaction could come before the forces in Cluster were ready to mount a serious attack. (They're probably wrong about that, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was their thinking)

And has been noted, a BC or two could start nailing those (as far as Monican admirals would guess) before they concentrate.

The SLN reaction time isn't critically to the Lynx Terminus, either. It's to defend Monica from wrathful Manties - or relieve it afterward. Assuming the League will make Manticore back down, and that it will rule in a way that's favorable to Monica with regard to the terminus at least, Monica can lose a whole lot and come out ahead.

Monica need not even count on getting much of the Terminus revenues or loot from a conquered Talbott Cluster. If OFS lets it keep even a modest percentage of the take, to keep its puppet happy, Monica is still doing well out of it.

Keeping in mind the MAlign purpose, their sales pitch had to have all of the right conditions for their own plans a) capture Manticoran tech, b) be able to get Crandall in position to get reamed, and c) then get Filerata reamed as well, We also know the same from QEIII's strength of character that once Monican and Mesan interference was discovered, the outcome would have not changed a bit, just the calendaring.

That said, picture the pitch from Tyler's windows: You've got the Gendamarie in uniform representing the SL, big transtellars offering enough firepower to make you the dominant power and the advanced weaponry to go into the economic empire business. The promise is "get us what we want, we'll back your play with the almighty SLN, and we'll let you have the terminus fees..." Your government and well being have also been locked in their pocket for many years; you might get disappeared or made to suffer a permanent familial economic ruin nearly instantly.

At which point Tyler's between the greed and avarice rock and the facing economic ruin hard place. Bad time to be Mesa's friend, methinks.

SharkHunter wrote:At which point Tyler's between the greed and avarice rock and the facing economic ruin hard place. Bad time to be Mesa's friend, methinks.

And Anisimovna threw in bare legs too! He probably was not thinking with any organ that was willing to say no.

One point wasn't appreciated at all, but it has to be keep in mind, nonetheless. That point I refer to is that Manticore was building forts on the Lynx-Side of the Terminus. If even only 1 of the 10(?) forts was ready at the time the Monicans came calling (ready at least regarding point defense and with at least some pods (so around a hundred or so) available for offensive actions, all bets would be off and we would've seen another "oops"-moment in the series

The MA is always willing to let someone else find out how the monster works.

"Very dangerous, you go first."