Monica attacking Lynx Terminus - Would you take the offer?

The current post concerning the Lynx system defenses got me thinking about the planned Monican seizure of the Lynx Terminus. And the more I think about it - it was always going to be a roll of the die.

So Technodyne was giving Monica 14 ex-SLN Indefatigable BCs and refiting them (change their emission signatures), along with several freighters full of EDM pods. In return, the Monican navy was putting their entire current OOB in storage and manning the 14 BCs to seize the Lynx Terminus. After an indeterminate period of time, the SLN Frontier Fleet would show up and "Intervene".

So what should Monica know to make their decision to accept the offer?

1)Everybody knows the Manticorians have 1st class hardware - that seems to be legendary, even in locals no where near Manticore. The only group who snubs them is the SLN (for no appearant reason). So the Monicans should assume that the RMN hardware is just as good as the SLN hardware.

2)When the EDM missile pods were discussed, the fact that the RMN had what was assumed to be even longer ranged missiles was also discussed.

3) Manticore was moving their ships in the TQ openly - A mildly accurate shipcount should be possible, especially concerning the Hercules which never moved from Spindle. When Kulamo asked how many ships Terekhv had in his squadron, he was told between 9 and 12-13, depending on timing. Assuming 13 was the upper size of the Southern Patrol, and assuming the Northern Patrol was evenly sized, There were at least 30 RMN warships on this side of the lynx terminus, including the 3 Cl/DDs at the Terminus.

Assuming the Morthern Patrol was of a similiar compostion to the Southern Patrol, it should have ~3 CAs, mostly from the Legacy fleet, so most likely Star Knights or (maybe) Sag-As.

So (on paper) the RMN forces in Quadrant are at least 1 SD, ~6 CAs, and ~23 CL/DDs permanently on station in the Quadrant. This, of course does not include the navies of any TQ parties who wish to join in, nor any last minute RMN fleet movements.

4)Monica had to strip it's navy to achieve the proper manning levels of the BCs- So a couple of the RMN DDs or CLs which were stranded on this side of the wormhole could devestate the Monican system in reprisal, without Monica being able to effectively respond.

5)1 SD is usually considered the equal of it's weight in BCs or more, so if the RMN TC forces regrouped and came calling with all their forces in 3 weeks, 8 of the 14 BCs would be countered by the single SD, leaving 6 to take on the ~6 CAs and 20+ Cl/DDs. Should just 1 other old SD be in the region, just the SDs would be able to achieve parity with the Monican forces.

The RMN also has pods of long rang missiles (longer ranged than the Technodyne missiles provided), so the trump card of Technodyne's pods are at least partially countered by RMN pods, With the RMN ranges being countered by Technodyne's number.

6) Unknown is the SLN reaction timing, which turned out to be multiple months in the making, but Monica could not know that - but the SLN never promised any specific timing anyway.

7) Finally, the RMN's main force is on the other side of the wormhole - 300 SDs, 50 CLACS, 200 BCs, etc, etc, and you don't know what is positioned to respond, or what fleet movements were made into the quadrant in the last few days before your strike.

Knowing this, and forgetting how many SD(p)s can dance on the head of a pin or what a single CLAC wing could do to a squadron of BCs, Whould you, as a Monican Admiral, accept this offer and attack the Lynx terminus?

I would think that knowledge of manty capabilities would still be fairly hazy. about all that was known about manticore that far out (if it was known at all) was that it had a big wormhole junction giving a lot of economic power. that it had a navy that kicked the butt of a much bigger one but that the war had resumed and badly for the manties.

the ships patrolling the cluster had no reason to visit monica and monica was a OFS merc state essentially, so a lot of info was probably viewed through OFS filters. i.e. they were uppity and had no business being in the cluster and like any other neobarb nation manticore no doubt thoinks their fleet is brilliant but would no doubt start begging for momma as soon as frontier fleet showed up

I'd like to think I would tell my superiors it was a bad idea but when approached by what we believe to be unofficial OFS envoys and promised lots of goodies and spoils for kicking sand in someone's face I'd probably tell them to go for it.

Theemile wrote:Knowing this, and forgetting how many SD(p)s can dance on the head of a pin or what a single CLAC wing could do to a squadron of BCs, Whould you, as a Monican Admiral, accept this offer and attack the Lynx terminus?

Monica was already under the thumb of Frontier Security and Mesa, so they may not have had much freedom to say no.

That said - maybe. Certainly it could go very badly, and having to defend both the distant terminus and Monica itself would be worrisome. I think Monica figured that, if they made a good-faith effort, or scouted out serious problems on this side of the terminus, they could remain in good odor with OFS and Mesa and keep the shiny BC's, minus whatever losses and damage they sustain before they can back out.

Timing and surprise would be important. They could certainly wipe away the terminus picket in a rush and hold the terminus against forces coming through it with BC's initially and pods shortly thereafter. Given the conditions of a wormhole assault against a prepared defender, I doubt Manticore would try it. So there goes the terminus picket and the immediate threat from Manticore through the Junction is neutralized. OFS now has the pretext to start moving to intervene.

The RMN shipping through the Quadrant is scattered all over a huge volume of space. It's going to be awhile before they able to try to retake the terminus in strength, and they may not have reports about the missile pods before they do. So Monica can send some of the BC's back to Monica for its defense, and maybe arrange to leave some of the pods there too. In fact, if they can get away with it, I imagine they'd send all the BC's they could get away with back to Monica. It's going to be hard on the terminus once the RMN concentrates to take it, but the BC's back at Monica are much safer and more likely to last until OFS rides to the rescue than ones on the terminus.

Ultimately, they're relying on OFS to come in and make things good for them and Manticore not to take on the whole League in a shooting war once they arrive, and on themselves and the new gear to keep Monica from being too messed up before that rescue. Even losing control of the planet for a bit would be worth it even if they lose all the ships, if OFS restores the Monican government and lets them have the terminus after intervention, and that's not even counting relying on them as an intermediary in the effective conquest of the Quadrant afterward. (Granted, consider who is likeliest to be dying under that scenario, it's more appealing to the government than to the admirals, much less the crews.)

So I'd say that their realistic plans, given what they knew, weren't going to be as rosy as it was painted for them, but if they could trigger OFS intervention (which was supposed to be primed and ready), they could stand to suffer a whole lot of damage and loss and still come out of it far ahead.

Theemile wrote:Knowing this, and forgetting how many SD(p)s can dance on the head of a pin or what a single CLAC wing could do to a squadron of BCs, Whould you, as a Monican Admiral, accept this offer and attack the Lynx terminus?

Last time I checked, most admirals followed their orders. The go order would have been given by President Tyler and he was effectively committed to attacking the Lynx Terminus once he took delivery of the BCs - although I wonder what might have happened had he simply used his new Navy to tell OFS and Mesa to go bugger themselves.

I think Commodore Horster, regarded as the Monicans' best flag officer, had serious misgivings about the overall plan. By this point in time, it should be common knowledge that Manticore won the first war with a decisive techological edge.

I'd probably oppose the plan on the grounds that Hercules was already on the Lynx side of the wormhole and that any flag officer(or captain) in the RMN would consider any single vessel expendable in the face of a threat to one of Manticore's termini and I don't think 14 BCs are going to stop a SD on a death ride.

And even if Hercules didn't attack, the RMN was still capable of sending 25 or 30 Gryphons SDs through the wormhole in an attempt to retake it.

munroburton wrote:I'd probably oppose the plan on the grounds that Hercules was already on the Lynx side of the wormhole and that any flag officer(or captain) in the RMN would consider any single vessel expendable in the face of a threat to one of Manticore's termini and I don't think 14 BCs are going to stop a SD on a death ride.

David has stated that a BC squadron can take a single SD. There will be less BCs at the end than there was at the beginning, but properly handled they can take it.

munroburton wrote:

Theemile wrote:Knowing this, and forgetting how many SD(p)s can dance on the head of a pin or what a single CLAC wing could do to a squadron of BCs, Whould you, as a Monican Admiral, accept this offer and attack the Lynx terminus?

Last time I checked, most admirals followed their orders. The go order would have been given by President Tyler and he was effectively committed to attacking the Lynx Terminus once he took delivery of the BCs - although I wonder what might have happened had he simply used his new Navy to tell OFS and Mesa to go bugger themselves.

<snip>

I was thinking Specifically Adm Bourmont, Tyler's Uncle/Cousin/whatever who headed the Navy. Tyler might have been initially convinced, but Bourmont should have had is people do an appreciation, check the intel on the Manties and figure the odds. Even if they initially said yes, they had at least 9 months to do an in depth analysis and do a good intel sweep of the Manty OOB prior to the Battle of Monica - enough time to realize the odds were much longer than they expected. And the Hercules would be the clincher - since it alone could destroy over 1/2 the new navy if they engaged (or could destroy it all if it caught them piecemeal.) It and the possibility of another single SD or BC squadron visiting, would be enough to rethink the plans.

One item which would haunt me is the timing at the terminus - how long will it take to secure it? what is the Manty reaction time? If a single BC can get through from Manticore inside the minimal window it takes to secure the terminus, everything may be blown - it's possible they can cause enough confusion amongst the siege units to permit a 2nd BC through, etc, etc, and accept any damage necessary to protect the terminus.

Theemile wrote:...

Knowing this, and forgetting how many SD(p)s can dance on the head of a pin or what a single CLAC wing could do to a squadron of BCs, Would you, as a Monican Admiral, accept this offer and attack the Lynx terminus?

I think you're confusing what the reader knows and what characters inside the Honorverse know. Monica and their SLN advisers wouldn't know anything about LACs or CLACs; the MAlign might have a clue, but they weren't sharing even with their agents on-scene.

Anismovna and Bardesano(sp) were running a con game and only presenting the positives and minimizing or hiding completely the negatives. They were also waving a "big stick" in the guise of apparently official "support" of the Solarian League, who would be "displeased" with Monica for refusing.

When the bully on the block makes "an offer you can't refuse" you probably shouldn't refuse it.

Weird Harold wrote:

Theemile wrote:...

Knowing this, and forgetting how many SD(p)s can dance on the head of a pin or what a single CLAC wing could do to a squadron of BCs, Would you, as a Monican Admiral, accept this offer and attack the Lynx terminus?

I think you're confusing what the reader knows and what characters inside the Honorverse know. Monica and their SLN advisers wouldn't know anything about LACs or CLACs; the MAlign might have a clue, but they weren't sharing even with their agents on-scene.

Anismovna and Bardesano(sp) were running a con game and only presenting the positives and minimizing or hiding completely the negatives. They were also waving a "big stick" in the guise of apparently official "support" of the Solarian League, who would be "displeased" with Monica for refusing.

When the bully on the block makes "an offer you can't refuse" you probably shouldn't refuse it.

That's why I never mentioned LACS and CLACS above in the want Monica Knows list and told people to Forget about them in their thoughts on the matter - I only mentioned things Monica Could - or Should - know or be able to find out.

Any Navy who had the time to do an appreciation study and doesn't before an opp, deserves what they get. And you can't tell me that Tylor didn't have spies through the TQ to know what was going on, they are his neighbors and he isn't the overly friendly sort.

Without having gone back to read the rational presented to Monica, they were going to get all these former SLN BCs with upgrades (done at their own yards with Techodyne yard people) plus a LOT of pods/mines as a way to sercure the wormhole against the RMN trying to reinforce through the wormhole. They were also getting the new Technodyne missiles.

If the RMN already in the Talbot Cluster are going to be scattered around and patroling, then even when the individual ships learn about the Republic of Monica Navy having taken the Talbot side of the Lynx terminus, they are going to be still scattered and need to gather somewhere if they intend to retake the terminus from this side. That said, there is nothing to stop the Monica Navy from sending one or two BCs out to intercept some of the RMN ships of Talbot Station on their rounds. One BC "should" be able to take a RMN DD or CA, particularly if they don't know that the BC is going to ambush them when they meet in some system. What Monica doesn't actually know is that the Saganami Class ships are capable of and what the most modern RMN ships can do.
Monica is being led to presume that even with ONE RMN SD (an elderly one being used as a headquarters for Baroness Medusa and NOT a modern and fully updated/refitted and being parked there for "show") and they have enough 1st line SEM weaponry with most current SLN tech advantage to take the SD should it attempt to take back the Terminus.

The promise to Monica is that Frontier Fleet will- shortly after Monica takes the terminus- show up and either reinforce them or take over as a "neutral party" pending the resolution of the dispute of the terminus to keep RMN from sending some force around the long way by way of Beowulf Terminus and then a long way through Hyperspace to get at the ship- which they will then find are FF/SLN holding the terminus with the full power of the SLN behind them IF the Manties then still think they are going to try to take back the Lynx side from Monica.

Any way you slice it, Monica is going to get the credit (very dubious) for doing this and probably a sizable chunk of FF (at least) is going to get killed along with a bunch of damage to RMN in doing so while pulling those same RNM ships away from the fight against Haven and going the long way via Beowulf to get at Lynx.

For the Alignment it is a win-win. They think.

Theemile wrote:The current post concerning the Lynx system defenses got me thinking about the planned Monican seizure of the Lynx Terminus. And the more I think about it - it was always going to be a roll of the die.

So Technodyne was giving Monica 14 ex-SLN Indefatigable BCs and refiting them (change their emission signatures), along with several freighters full of EDM pods. In return, the Monican navy was putting their entire current OOB in storage and manning the 14 BCs to seize the Lynx Terminus. After an indeterminate period of time, the SLN Frontier Fleet would show up and "Intervene".

So what should Monica know to make their decision to accept the offer?

[snip]
6) Unknown is the SLN reaction timing, which turned out to be multiple months in the making, but Monica could not know that - but the SLN never promised any specific timing anyway.

[snip] Whould you, as a Monican Admiral, accept this offer and attack the Lynx terminus?

One thing that struck me is that the upside of the deal is rather small. Once the FF/OFS has control of the terminus, they're not going to let it go. Monica is going to get a pat on the head, and help getting what's left of their BCs back home.