HFQ Snippet 27[?]

isaac_newton wrote:

McGuiness wrote:We may be overestimating the impact of the thaw on BGV's mobility. Remember, his troops are following a high road, and those are kept in good condition and are generally paved or coated with packed gravel, which drains quite well and doesn't turn into mud when it gets wet.

Sure his troops will get muddy when they move off the road to pitch their tents for the night, and they'll lose the advantage of their arctic training, but there's no reason they can't keep moving at 20+ miles per day along the high road toward Guarnak. They may even move more quickly than they did in the snow.

Unfortunately, Fairkyn lies almost 50 miles south of the high road, so once BGV blows the place to smithereens, he needs to sprint back to the road before the thaw hits - if his plan is to continue to move on Guarnak during the thaw.

Very good point!

I would have thought that there would be a reasonable lesser road joining Fairkyn to the high way. After all we saw that in South March, where those smaller roads were only revealed in the detailed maps in LAMA.

Quite true, and for all we know there may be a high road that connects to Fairkyn, and RFC simply hadn't needed it yet!

If not, a lesser road leading to the high road from Fairkyn undoubtedly exists, since it would be practically unheard of for a town to lack roads connecting it to other towns, especially when a high road is only a few miles away.

There is however a vital distinction between lesser roads (which may be no more than wagon tracks) and high roads once the thaw hits. Those lesser roads will turn into muddy quagmires. Remember the fun Ahlverez is having now that his army is off the high road?

So unless there's a leg of high road that connects to Fairkyn, BGV may need to capture the place and sprint back to the high road as quickly as possible to avoid the thaw, or he might enjoy the same sort of slog that Ahlverez is battling.

I think that whatever happens next up in Northland is not primarily determined by speeds of strategic movement (and onset of thaw), but rather by Clyntahn's reaction to the strategic threat to the Army of the Sylmahn.
Now, from what I gather from the ruminations of Duchairn and his doubts, the Go4 is aware of the danger, i.e. the whole AoS being entrapped. Nonetheless, Clyntahn seems to have decided to hold on to the ground. Which puts Bahrnabai into an interesting spot. He should be intelligent enough to understand the peril he'll be in starting late spring.
The question is whether he has to courage to retreat. I doubt it and thus expect the effective destruction of the Northland/Montaincross detachment of the AoG. And if that entrapment by BGV works out, the collapse of the Army of the Sylmahn will happen rather quickly. Then with the fall of Guarnak in late spring/early summer, the major stoppers for BGV advancing up the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal will be gone.
Strategically, the next issue will be if Kaitswyrth can retreat fast enough to prevent getting cut off himself - if he actually saves his command from the EoC/RoS spring offensive up the Daivyn. And, of course, if the MHoG will be able to reach a position where it could stop the allied advance.
As to the discussion of new AoG weaponry in the other snippet, this makes me a bit curious. It shouldn't be relevant in the current campaign in Siddarmark since it should be over in this campaign season. So, why is RFC giving us that information, I wonder...

anwi wrote:I think that whatever happens next up in Northland is not primarily determined by speeds of strategic movement (and onset of thaw), but rather by Clyntahn's reaction to the strategic threat to the Army of the Sylmahn.
Now, from what I gather from the ruminations of Duchairn and his doubts, the Go4 is aware of the danger, i.e. the whole AoS being entrapped. Nonetheless, Clyntahn seems to have decided to hold on to the ground. Which puts Bahrnabai into an interesting spot. He should be intelligent enough to understand the peril he'll be in starting late spring.
The question is whether he has to courage to retreat. I doubt it and thus expect the effective destruction of the Northland/Montaincross detachment of the AoG. And if that entrapment by BGV works out, the collapse of the Army of the Sylmahn will happen rather quickly. Then with the fall of Guarnak in late spring/early summer, the major stoppers for BGV advancing up the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal will be gone.
Strategically, the next issue will be if Kaitswyrth can retreat fast enough to prevent getting cut off himself - if he actually saves his command from the EoC/RoS spring offensive up the Daivyn. And, of course, if the MHoG will be able to reach a position where it could stop the allied advance.
As to the discussion of new AoG weaponry in the other snippet, this makes me a bit curious. It shouldn't be relevant in the current campaign in Siddarmark since it should be over in this campaign season. So, why is RFC giving us that information, I wonder...

As I hear the rextev, Wyrshym still thinks that if only he can get a sufficient supply of the Temple's new toys along with those reinforcements he's been promised, he can still roll over the allies in the Sylvyn Gap and break into Old Province. However after the fall of Esthyr's Abby, I suspect that his thinking might be changing.

Don

Hi Don,

Indeed, realizing BGV moved ~240 miles through the worst of the late winter from Allyntyn to Esthyr's abbey, may frighten or at least convince Bahrnabai Wyrshym into pulling Nybar back, which might make BGV's job much easier when he catches up to him.

If Wyrshym is ordered to hold, Magwair and Duchairn may realize they will lose the whole northern AoG 2-3 month's before the MHoG can replace them, will this trigger Rhobair's plot against Clyntahn?

Will Nybar retreat up the New Northland canal, since RFC may not let him die or captured so easily?

I've pointed out before that the Guarnak-Syhlman canal is still working and the blocking force at the lake could escape from the rest of BGV's army if its stuck in the mud while they move 40 miles per day on the barges back to Guarnak, so Wyrshym may well escape to Five Forks in force.

Even if the rockets were perfected tomorrow it would take ~100 days to get them to the front, ie June-July at the earliest, yet if development and production take only 100 days, then its well into October before we'll see them in action.

All the best wishes

L


[quote="n7axw"][quote="anwi"]I think that whatever happens next up in Northland is not primarily determined by speeds of strategic movement (and onset of thaw), but rather by Clyntahn's reaction to the strategic threat to the Army of the Sylmahn.
Now, from what I gather from the ruminations of Duchairn and his doubts, the Go4 is aware of the danger, i.e. the whole AoS being entrapped. Nonetheless, Clyntahn seems to have decided to hold on to the ground. Which puts Bahrnabai into an interesting spot. He should be intelligent enough to understand the peril he'll be in starting late spring.
The question is whether he has to courage to retreat. I doubt it and thus expect the effective destruction of the Northland/Montaincross detachment of the AoG. And if that entrapment by BGV works out, the collapse of the Army of the Sylmahn will happen rather quickly. Then with the fall of Guarnak in late spring/early summer, the major stoppers for BGV advancing up the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal will be gone.
Strategically, the next issue will be if Kaitswyrth can retreat fast enough to prevent getting cut off himself - if he actually saves his command from the EoC/RoS spring offensive up the Daivyn. And, of course, if the MHoG will be able to reach a position where it could stop the allied advance.
As to the discussion of new AoG weaponry in the other snippet, this makes me a bit curious. It shouldn't be relevant in the current campaign in Siddarmark since it should be over in this campaign season. So, why is RFC giving us that information, I wonder...[/quote]

As I hear the rextev, Wyrshym still thinks that if only he can get a sufficient supply of the Temple's new toys along with those reinforcements he's been promised, he can still roll over the allies in the Sylvyn Gap and break into Old Province. However after the fall of Esthyr's Abby, I suspect that his thinking might be changing.

Don[/quote]

lyonheart wrote:
Even if the rockets were perfected tomorrow it would take ~100 days to get them to the front, ie June-July at the earliest, yet if development and production take only 100 days, then its well into October before we'll see them in action.

All the best wishes

L

Those rockets are about the only thing that really concerns me. The rest of the stuff they've come up with are either inferior answers to what the ICA is already doing or like the St. Klymans an answer to the Mandrayans when the ICA is already moving on to the M96s.

But the rockets have the potential to do some real damage if the can figure out how to aim the things reliably. And it's really the first thing the Temple has come up with that is original instead of being an answer to something the COGA has done first.

I agree that most of this stuff hasn't been in the pipe line long enough for it to play a significant role in the coming summer's campaign.

Don

lyonheart wrote:

Indeed, realizing BGV moved ~240 miles through the worst of the late winter from Allyntyn to Esthyr's abbey, may frighten or at least convince Bahrnabai Wyrshym into pulling Nybar back, which might make BGV's job much easier when he catches up to him.


Given the description of the poorly equipped Temple soldiers we just read, I wonder if any significant adjustments can be made in current troop locations. Recall that when this group was sent north- they were to have the best equipment the AoG could give them. And that turns out to be pretty sorry. Just the footgear these troops are described as having shows that they were doing well to survive--- in a camp. A camp using straw as a primary way of keeping it's soldiers from freezing. I doubt that they could have moved 50 miles before the elements killed most of them.

It could be that all of the Temple troops are pretty much stuck where they are - awaiting spring-- or BGV's arrival to scoop them up.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

Indeed, realizing BGV moved ~240 miles through the worst of the late winter from Allyntyn to Esthyr's abbey, may frighten or at least convince Bahrnabai Wyrshym into pulling Nybar back, which might make BGV's job much easier when he catches up to him.

If Wyrshym is ordered to hold, Magwair and Duchairn may realize they will lose the whole northern AoG 2-3 month's before the MHoG can replace them, will this trigger Rhobair's plot against Clyntahn?

Will Nybar retreat up the New Northland canal, since RFC may not let him die or captured so easily?

I've pointed out before that the Guarnak-Syhlman canal is still working and the blocking force at the lake could escape from the rest of BGV's army if its stuck in the mud while they move 40 miles per day on the barges back to Guarnak, so Wyrshym may well escape to Five Forks in force.

Even if the rockets were perfected tomorrow it would take ~100 days to get them to the front, ie June-July at the earliest, yet if development and production take only 100 days, then its well into October before we'll see them in action.

All the best wishes

L

Hi Lyon

Are you sure about the Guarnak Sylmahn Canal still working? I seem to remember Bishop Wrysham looking rather grumpily at an almost drained canal bed. Or did you mean the section beyond Guarnak to Sylmahn?

So you are thinking they could quickly get retreat to G, blowing up the locks as they leave.

Having said that, the AofS would have to leave a substantial rear guard[s] to hold up the Charisians/Silmarkians. Who in turn could race up the main highway which is almost beside the canal.

Moroever would the AofS have enough barges/dragons to do the lift in one batch?


Interesting thought about Nybar retreating up the New Northland canal. Did you mean up the main road from Ohlarhn to Hyrdman? I would have though he would be more likely to retreat towards the main body of the AofS.

I agree about the rocket delivery situation though. BTW there is an interesting bit in Wikipedia about the Katyusha - which I guess is similar. Although it does have this mass blanketing effect, in a v short time, it does suffer from the drawback of a really long reload time compared to regular artilary, so the final total payload over several hours would be in the favour of the latter. One more advantage of the Katyusha, seemed to be that it did not require such precise heavy engineering [if I read aright], which of course would be of great interest to COGA!

Hi Isaac Newton,

Since the Guarnak-Sylmahn Canal wasn't damaged by the Great Canal Raid, all the locks east of Guarnak should have still functioned until winter.

The high road should provide a 40 mile rate of advance, unless its been damaged and there's some textev that even high roads require some maintenance in the spring before they're fully functional.

Nybar might decide to get out of BGV's way by heading west via the New Northland especially if Wyrshym ordered it, though recombining with Wyrshym because Nybar has the best part of the army is the other option.

Reloading has always been the downside of your MRL's, figuring 150 -200 days minimum before they reach the field give the allies plenty of time to unleash theirs before the Go4.

We have yet to have meeting engagements, road and convoy ambushes, and prepared defense battles by the Go4 armies, which we will probably see in HFQ.

L


[quote="isaac_newton"][quote="lyonheart"]Hi Don,

Indeed, realizing BGV moved ~240 miles through the worst of the late winter from Allyntyn to Esthyr's abbey, may frighten or at least convince Bahrnabai Wyrshym into pulling Nybar back, which might make BGV's job much easier when he catches up to him.

If Wyrshym is ordered to hold, Magwair and Duchairn may realize they will lose the whole northern AoG 2-3 month's before the MHoG can replace them, will this trigger Rhobair's plot against Clyntahn?

Will Nybar retreat up the New Northland canal, since RFC may not let him die or captured so easily?

I've pointed out before that the Guarnak-Syhlman canal is still working and the blocking force at the lake could escape from the rest of BGV's army if its stuck in the mud while they move 40 miles per day on the barges back to Guarnak, so Wyrshym may well escape to Five Forks in force.

Even if the rockets were perfected tomorrow it would take ~100 days to get them to the front, ie June-July at the earliest, yet if development and production take only 100 days, then its well into October before we'll see them in action.

All the best wishes

L


[/quote]

Hi Lyon

Are you sure about the Guarnak Sylmahn Canal still working? I seem to remember Bishop Wrysham looking rather grumpily at an almost drained canal bed. Or did you mean the section beyond Guarnak to Sylmahn?

So you are thinking they could quickly get retreat to G, blowing up the locks as they leave.

Having said that, the AofS would have to leave a substantial rear guard[s] to hold up the Charisians/Silmarkians. Who in turn could race up the main highway which is almost beside the canal.

Moroever would the AofS have enough barges/dragons to do the lift in one batch?


Interesting thought about Nybar retreating up the New Northland canal. Did you mean up the main road from Ohlarhn to Hyrdman? I would have though he would be more likely to retreat towards the main body of the AofS.

I agree about the rocket delivery situation though. BTW there is an interesting bit in Wikipedia about the Katyusha - which I guess is similar. Although it does have this mass blanketing effect, in a v short time, it does suffer from the drawback of a really long reload time compared to regular artilary, so the final total payload over several hours would be in the favour of the latter. One more advantage of the Katyusha, seemed to be that it did not require such precise heavy engineering [if I read aright], which of course would be of great interest to COGA![/quote]

wingfield wrote:

Charybdis wrote:Ah, Derbyshire! God's County.
So, how is winter down there in Australia this year?

It is miserable. I'd rather be back in Derbyshire!

My grandparents lived in Whaley Bridge, Derbyshire. I have many happy memories of Derbyshire.

jeremyr wrote:
My grandparents lived in Whaley Bridge, Derbyshire. I have many happy memories of Derbyshire.

Wonderful! Likewise.

My aunts still live in Swanwick. No prizes for guessing the source of my nickname here!