HFQ Snippet 27[?]

LouisR wrote:

Since going through that area would have cut a major distance off the high road and probably the canal as well, it is a good bet that it isn't particularly passable.

You make some excellent points.

My own guess is that those arctic troops are going to explode into Wyrshyms's face across the frozen lake in the Gap. In fact, they might already have done so, and Duchairn just hasn't heard about it.

I've been running hot-and-cold about that. Does Baron Green Valley want to attack in the Sylmahn Gap and tie Wyrshym's forces down there, before Wyrshym becomes aware of the threat down the Guarnak-Ice Ash Canal? That way Wyrshym will take heavy losses trying to extricate himself from battle.

Or would he rather let Wyrshym weaken his forces in the gap trying to reinforce Ohlarhn and then experience his weakened forces overwhelmed by Siddarmarkians in the gap?

I think it's going to depend on the timing of the spring thaw, and, based on information from some really knowledgeable sources who have posted in this forum, I think the spring thaw is going to happen about the time Green Valley arrives just outside Fairkyn. If that's true then winter-capable combat forces in the gap are going to be moot. Wyrshym can't know the size of the threat he faces from the Northeast until Green Valley takes Fairkyn. Saint Esthyr's Abbey and Saint Zhana won't really tell him what he needs to know, but a major defeat at Fairkyn will.

~Tonto

Tonto Silerheels wrote:I think it's going to depend on the timing of the spring thaw, and, based on information from some really knowledgeable sources who have posted in this forum, I think the spring thaw is going to happen about the time Green Valley arrives just outside Fairkyn. If that's true then winter-capable combat forces in the gap are going to be moot. Wyrshym can't know the size of the threat he faces from the Northeast until Green Valley takes Fairkyn. Saint Esthyr's Abbey and Saint Zhana won't really tell him what he needs to know, but a major defeat at Fairkyn will.

~Tonto

Is there such a thing as mud training for soldiers? Mud equipment? Kittens help us, mud tactics?

Tonto Silerheels wrote:LouisR wrote:

Since going through that area would have cut a major distance off the high road and probably the canal as well, it is a good bet that it isn't particularly passable.

You make some excellent points.

My own guess is that those arctic troops are going to explode into Wyrshyms's face across the frozen lake in the Gap. In fact, they might already have done so, and Duchairn just hasn't heard about it.

I've been running hot-and-cold about that. Does Baron Green Valley want to attack in the Sylmahn Gap and tie Wyrshym's forces down there, before Wyrshym becomes aware of the threat down the Guarnak-Ice Ash Canal? That way Wyrshym will take heavy losses trying to extricate himself from battle.

Or would he rather let Wyrshym weaken his forces in the gap trying to reinforce Ohlarhn and then experience his weakened forces overwhelmed by Siddarmarkians in the gap?

I think it's going to depend on the timing of the spring thaw, and, based on information from some really knowledgeable sources who have posted in this forum, I think the spring thaw is going to happen about the time Green Valley arrives just outside Fairkyn. If that's true then winter-capable combat forces in the gap are going to be moot. Wyrshym can't know the size of the threat he faces from the Northeast until Green Valley takes Fairkyn. Saint Esthyr's Abbey and Saint Zhana won't really tell him what he needs to know, but a major defeat at Fairkyn will.

~Tonto

The key issue might be the different latitudes. That difference is enough to thaw out at the Sylmahn Gap but keep it cold up north. If they don't need those artic trained troops, then where are they?

Charybdis wrote:

wingfield wrote:Ah, Derbyshire! God's County.

So, how is winter down there in Australia this year?

It is miserable. I'd rather be back in Derbyshire!

isaac_newton wrote:

The attack on the abbey came as a complete total sunrise and even so we saw COGA resistance, rather than a complete collapse.

We also saw that the trench defences had been neglected. I'm pretty sure that the surviving COGA outposts would be frantically rectifying that, so their defence would be more effective.

I'm not saying that they will halt BGV, but that they will be much more difficult to winkle out. The Abbey fell in a few hours at most. I really don't see that at the larger towns further down the trail.

Furthermore long before the thaw comes?

It will vary depending on how far north and the vissitudes of the weather,

But...

Six to eight weeks.

Don

My thought exactly. Either those troops are someplace that makes their specialist training irrelevant [not impossible, if it simply wasn't practical to employ anything larger than the force moving west now, but somehow that seems... unlikely] or they're somewhere that will put it to good use. Attacking in the Sylmahn Gap while the ice is still safe would be one such use.

Or, perhaps, they're somewhere where it's advisable rather than essential. On the Daivyn, for example, which is where the second half of the snippet leaves off. It's not that much further south than Green Cove, and further into the heart of Haven, although it isn't up in the mountains, either. I think that it's far enough south that troops with the equivalent of Basic Winter Warfare training could operate successfully, but being fully equipped and trained isn't going to hurt anything.

PeterZ wrote:

Tonto Silerheels wrote:LouisR wrote:

Since going through that area would have cut a major distance off the high road and probably the canal as well, it is a good bet that it isn't particularly passable.

You make some excellent points.

My own guess is that those arctic troops are going to explode into Wyrshyms's face across the frozen lake in the Gap. In fact, they might already have done so, and Duchairn just hasn't heard about it.

I've been running hot-and-cold about that. Does Baron Green Valley want to attack in the Sylmahn Gap and tie Wyrshym's forces down there, before Wyrshym becomes aware of the threat down the Guarnak-Ice Ash Canal? That way Wyrshym will take heavy losses trying to extricate himself from battle.

Or would he rather let Wyrshym weaken his forces in the gap trying to reinforce Ohlarhn and then experience his weakened forces overwhelmed by Siddarmarkians in the gap?

I think it's going to depend on the timing of the spring thaw, and, based on information from some really knowledgeable sources who have posted in this forum, I think the spring thaw is going to happen about the time Green Valley arrives just outside Fairkyn. If that's true then winter-capable combat forces in the gap are going to be moot. Wyrshym can't know the size of the threat he faces from the Northeast until Green Valley takes Fairkyn. Saint Esthyr's Abbey and Saint Zhana won't really tell him what he needs to know, but a major defeat at Fairkyn will.

~Tonto

The key issue might be the different latitudes. That difference is enough to thaw out at the Sylmahn Gap but keep it cold up north. If they don't need those artic trained troops, then where are they?

Tonto Silerheels wrote:n7axw wrote:

I find myself wondering how the Temple found out about what happened at Esthyr's Abby so fast... Nobody escaped to report and yet Duchairin is aware of it what seems like about two weeks later.

I imagine that Esthyr's Abby was making daily reports via semaphore. Things like how many shoes were needed, how many gloves, how many apricots... Then, suddenly the reports stopped. And, too, the nearest semaphore station may have seen the smoke from the fires.

~Tonto

1 apricot please

I was just thinking about the semaphore chain. Some towers will be near settlements, but others will be right out in the wilds. For these not very large crews, it must be quite terrifying, getting no return signals from the more eastward towers, and then seeing that 'signal free' zone extending in their direction as the heretics get rapidly closer.

I imagine that there would be a strong temptation to leg it, maybe burning the tower to prevent it falling into the Charisian's hand. Of course that very smoke might well spook the next tower crew along sufficiently to run as well - a sort of chain reaction, like a line of dominoes

Tonto Silerheels wrote:LouisR wrote:

Since going through that area would have cut a major distance off the high road and probably the canal as well, it is a good bet that it isn't particularly passable.

You make some excellent points.

My own guess is that those arctic troops are going to explode into Wyrshyms's face across the frozen lake in the Gap. In fact, they might already have done so, and Duchairn just hasn't heard about it.

I've been running hot-and-cold about that. Does Baron Green Valley want to attack in the Sylmahn Gap and tie Wyrshym's forces down there, before Wyrshym becomes aware of the threat down the Guarnak-Ice Ash Canal? That way Wyrshym will take heavy losses trying to extricate himself from battle.

Or would he rather let Wyrshym weaken his forces in the gap trying to reinforce Ohlarhn and then experience his weakened forces overwhelmed by Siddarmarkians in the gap?

I think it's going to depend on the timing of the spring thaw, and, based on information from some really knowledgeable sources who have posted in this forum, I think the spring thaw is going to happen about the time Green Valley arrives just outside Fairkyn. If that's true then winter-capable combat forces in the gap are going to be moot. Wyrshym can't know the size of the threat he faces from the Northeast until Green Valley takes Fairkyn. Saint Esthyr's Abbey and Saint Zhana won't really tell him what he needs to know, but a major defeat at Fairkyn will.

~Tonto

I'm highly inclined toward the second option. I think BGV is aiming to pull Wrysham up along axis toward Fairkyn, to leave a thin crust of troops behind, and then crash thru up the Sylmahn valley using those barges mounted with artillery. Of course, using those barges would need to be after the thaw, but that itself may give Wrysham a false sense of security, since he [W] 'knows' that the lake will be harder to pass when it's wet, rather then ice.

We may be overestimating the impact of the thaw on BGV's mobility. Remember, his troops are following a high road, and those are kept in good condition and are generally paved or coated with packed gravel, which drains quite well and doesn't turn into mud when it gets wet.

Sure his troops will get muddy when they move off the road to pitch their tents for the night, and they'll lose the advantage of their arctic training, but there's no reason they can't keep moving at 20+ miles per day along the high road toward Guarnak. They may even move more quickly than they did in the snow.

Unfortunately, Fairkyn lies almost 50 miles south of the high road, so once BGV blows the place to smithereens, he needs to sprint back to the road before the thaw hits - if his plan is to continue to move on Guarnak during the thaw.

McGuiness wrote:We may be overestimating the impact of the thaw on BGV's mobility. Remember, his troops are following a high road, and those are kept in good condition and are generally paved or coated with packed gravel, which drains quite well and doesn't turn into mud when it gets wet.

Sure his troops will get muddy when they move off the road to pitch their tents for the night, and they'll lose the advantage of their arctic training, but there's no reason they can't keep moving at 20+ miles per day along the high road toward Guarnak. They may even move more quickly than they did in the snow.

Unfortunately, Fairkyn lies almost 50 miles south of the high road, so once BGV blows the place to smithereens, he needs to sprint back to the road before the thaw hits - if his plan is to continue to move on Guarnak during the thaw.

Very good point!

I would have thought that there would be a reasonable lesser road joining Fairkyn to the high way. After all we saw that in South March, where those smaller roads were only revealed in the detailed maps in LAMA.