HFQ Snippet 27[?]

isaac_newton wrote:
I dont really see how BGV can sneak up now - after all even Duchairn in Zion knows about the Abbey and the EOC winter mobility, so the GOGA troops along the Northland/Olaharne gaps axis will keeping a very wary watch for the Charisians.

I'm not saying that BGV won't advance, but it's going to be a lot more contested.

Contested with what? Any troops deployed to take on BGV will have to maneuver out in the bitter cold. what troops there are guarding Ohlarhn are outnumbered and about to be pounded. Between the Ohlarhn Gap and Guarnak is pretty much bupkis.

Supersnippet! Battles! Duchairn! New Shadow book! Yay! Wow! Thank you!

...

No, seriously, it's like Christmas came early this year.

isaac_newton wrote:I dont really see how BGV can sneak up now - after all even Duchairn in Zion knows about the Abbey and the EOC winter mobility, so the GOGA troops along the Northland/Olaharne gaps axis will keeping a very wary watch for the Charisians.

I'm not saying that BGV won't advance, but it's going to be a lot more contested.

I expect at a minimum BGV will advance and take Fairkyn, which IIRC was the first set of locks that the ironclads seized and then destroyed. There's a town along the high road between the Northland Gap and Fairkyn named St. Zhana, but since RFC doesn't mention it at all in BGV's tactical plans or Wyrshym's defenses, it doesn't appear that it will play a part in the war. (Which is strange since it sits on a crossroads of the high road that leads north to Ranshair.)

There are no locks on the Ice Ash river until Fairkyn, so BGV's logistics train would be shortened dramatically as soon as the thaw hits and the Ice Ash river is clear enough for navigation. An ICN supply fleet landing in Ranshair with a few of the numerous new ironclads that are currently under construction could send supplies to Fairkyn, and even further once the locks there are repaired. (Ironically we'd end up with the CoGA madly repairing locks from the west while the EoC is repairing them from the east.

However, the New Northland canal was not damaged in the Great Canal Raid, and it provides an unimpeded course from Ranshair to Hyrdmyn, where the closest of the concentration camps to BGV is located. Should the ICA elect to send an ironclad with a force large enough to liberate the camp, it could also provide sufficient food and medicine for the camp's survivors, and provide the first evidence of the Inquisition's mass atrocities in Siddarmark. (Unless the ones in Cliff Peak are liberated first, which is a distinct possibility.)

The New Northland canal connects as far west as Five Forks, which if it could be used without the CoGA blowing the locks and leaving any invading EoC ironclads and barges sitting on a dry canal bed, the entire invasion of northern Siddarmark could be cut off by a couple of ironclads running wild in Lake Isyk. All troop and supply movement through the northern route could be cut off if those ironclads were able to move just north into Lake Maysn. That would cut off all resupply of Wyrshym, and force his reinforcements to walk to the front. What it would do to the supply train for the MHoG causes me to wince for the wives and daughters of the TLs in their path as the foraging barbarian horde would be forced to walk to Guarnak - which may well have fallen by then. In fact, Wyrshym might have his headquarters in Five Forks at that point, which would pretty much cut off any attack using the New Northland canal. Too bad, it looked like a nice backdoor into the enemy rear.

Kaitswyrth is likely to be eliminated or forced to flee northward within the next couple of months, and he's about to lose his southern supply route - permanently.

The new weapons that Duchairn's wizards are designing could make a drastic difference if they were in the hands of the CoGA troops when the summer campaign starts, which is unlikely. Whether the MHoG will be split or sent as one cohesive (and predatory) force is yet to be seen, but since even the CoGA seems to have written off Kaitswyrth, I don't see where else they're likely to be sent, unless a bunch of them are sent to reinforce Dohlar, which I'm sure will make the Dohlarans dance with joy!

I don't think BGV will manage to capture Guarnak before the thaw, and Wyrshym is smart enough to retreat if it looks like he's going to be mousetrapped between BGV's norther force and any assault coming through the Sylmahn Gap. He's got 100,000 reinforcements with modern weapons waiting for the thaw to advance, and they are apparently not part of the MHoG, so if he can manage to avoid being destroyed, he'll have an army that can stand against the combined forces under BGV's command - eventually. He'll have an even more powerful force if he holds out until the arrival of the MHoG. So for now it's a race against the thaw while winter is doing much of the ICA's job for it.

Better move fast BGV, since it's 400 miles to Fairkyn, which you need to capture before the thaw...

Rolling over a wildly outclassed enemy is starting to look alot like clubbing baby seals...

pbreed wrote:Rolling over a wildly outclassed enemy is starting to look alot like clubbing baby seals...

Unfortunately there's gonna be a whole lot more of those "baby seals" after the thaw - and they're gonna grow fangs!

isaac_newton wrote:

PeterZ wrote: SNIP

I recalled that other BGV passage too. How to reconcile the two? My thoughts are that if he can sneak all the way to Guarnak, BGV will happily do so. Since he doubts he will get closer than Ohlarhn Gap without Wyrshym realizing he is there, he will settle for forcing Wyrshym to march in winter or give Guarnak to BGV unopposed.

So, if Wyrshym pulls back some of his force, what remains will be easier to punch through. All the ICA need to is punch through that Gap of Wyrshym's on his right. Even if the remainder of the AoG holds, the ICA can send their arctic trained troops after the force Wyrshym has redeployed to Guarnak.

I don't see the benefit of doing nothing before the thaw makes any sort of maneuver nearly impossible. By then the GH will begin moving towards Siddermark.

I dont really see how BGV can sneak up now - after all even Duchairn in Zion knows about the Abbey and the EOC winter mobility, so the GOGA troops along the Northland/Olaharne gaps axis will keeping a very wary watch for the Charisians.

I'm not saying that BGV won't advance, but it's going to be a lot more contested.

I imagine that they will try to contest BGV's advance. But it appears that he not only has better equipment and better trained people, but the numbers at point of contact will be with him this time. So I don't anticipate that the Temple will be very successful.

And even so, I don't see the element of surprise being completely lost. They may have figured out that he is coming. But they still don't know how fast he can move.

Don

McGuinness wrote:

I expect at a minimum BGV will advance and take Fairkyn, which IIRC was the first set of locks that the ironclads seized and then destroyed. There's a town along the high road between the Northland Gap and Fairkyn named St. Zhana, but since RFC doesn't mention it at all in BGV's tactical plans or Wyrshym's defenses, it doesn't appear that it will play a part in the war.

He did mention it.

Brigadier Sutyls and Baron Green Valley both looked up quickly from the map and their quiet discussion of the terrain between Esthyr’s Abbey and St. Zhana, 1st Corps’ next objective.

~Tonto

Ummm... the Baron and the Brigadier are shown discussing the terrain between Esthyr's Abbey and St Zhana when they get the word that the last force is in position to start the attach.

IIRC, there are 2 sets of locks on the Ice Ash itself before the junction with the canal. Since Northland held for the Protector, they were in friendly territory and left intact during the Raid. Wyrshym may or may not have ignored them since. If he did, they're probably still intact, but if not, they will probably be blown and abandoned as soon as he can get the orders up there.


The locks at the end of the NN canal were destroyed during the Raid, so it isn't intact. The fact that the leg between the Isyk and Hildermoss exists at all suggests rather strongly that the Isyk isn't navigable and it isn't remotely easy to make it so. Just how that affects the canal east of the Isyk isn't evident, but I suspect that it may not be usable as far west as you might think from the map. OTOH, I don't see any reason it shouldn't be intact as far as Hyrdmyn - for the moment, at least.

Capturing Guarnak before the thaw was never a reasonable idea. OTOH, I still think that Wyrshym may choose to - or be ordered to - let himself be cut off in order to hold the Gap. Maybe he's about to be joined by General fyn Paylous of the MHOGATA?

McGuiness wrote:

isaac_newton wrote:I dont really see how BGV can sneak up now - after all even Duchairn in Zion knows about the Abbey and the EOC winter mobility, so the GOGA troops along the Northland/Olaharne gaps axis will keeping a very wary watch for the Charisians.

I'm not saying that BGV won't advance, but it's going to be a lot more contested.

I expect at a minimum BGV will advance and take Fairkyn, which IIRC was the first set of locks that the ironclads seized and then destroyed. There's a town along the high road between the Northland Gap and Fairkyn named St. Zhana, but since RFC doesn't mention it at all in BGV's tactical plans or Wyrshym's defenses, it doesn't appear that it will play a part in the war. (Which is strange since it sits on a crossroads of the high road that leads north to Ranshair.)

There are no locks on the Ice Ash river until Fairkyn, so BGV's logistics train would be shortened dramatically as soon as the thaw hits and the Ice Ash river is clear enough for navigation. An ICN supply fleet landing in Ranshair with a few of the numerous new ironclads that are currently under construction could send supplies to Fairkyn, and even further once the locks there are repaired. (Ironically we'd end up with the CoGA madly repairing locks from the west while the EoC is repairing them from the east.

However, the New Northland canal was not damaged in the Great Canal Raid, and it provides an unimpeded course from Ranshair to Hyrdmyn, where the closest of the concentration camps to BGV is located. Should the ICA elect to send an ironclad with a force large enough to liberate the camp, it could also provide sufficient food and medicine for the camp's survivors, and provide the first evidence of the Inquisition's mass atrocities in Siddarmark. (Unless the ones in Cliff Peak are liberated first, which is a distinct possibility.)

The New Northland canal connects as far west as Five Forks, which if it could be used without the CoGA blowing the locks and leaving any invading EoC ironclads and barges sitting on a dry canal bed, the entire invasion of northern Siddarmark could be cut off by a couple of ironclads running wild in Lake Isyk. All troop and supply movement through the northern route could be cut off if those ironclads were able to move just north into Lake Maysn. That would cut off all resupply of Wyrshym, and force his reinforcements to walk to the front. What it would do to the supply train for the MHoG causes me to wince for the wives and daughters of the TLs in their path as the foraging barbarian horde would be forced to walk to Guarnak - which may well have fallen by then. In fact, Wyrshym might have his headquarters in Five Forks at that point, which would pretty much cut off any attack using the New Northland canal. Too bad, it looked like a nice backdoor into the enemy rear.

Kaitswyrth is likely to be eliminated or forced to flee northward within the next couple of months, and he's about to lose his southern supply route - permanently.

The new weapons that Duchairn's wizards are designing could make a drastic difference if they were in the hands of the CoGA troops when the summer campaign starts, which is unlikely. Whether the MHoG will be split or sent as one cohesive (and predatory) force is yet to be seen, but since even the CoGA seems to have written off Kaitswyrth, I don't see where else they're likely to be sent, unless a bunch of them are sent to reinforce Dohlar, which I'm sure will make the Dohlarans dance with joy!

I don't think BGV will manage to capture Guarnak before the thaw, and Wyrshym is smart enough to retreat if it looks like he's going to be mousetrapped between BGV's norther force and any assault coming through the Sylmahn Gap. He's got 100,000 reinforcements with modern weapons waiting for the thaw to advance, and they are apparently not part of the MHoG, so if he can manage to avoid being destroyed, he'll have an army that can stand against the combined forces under BGV's command - eventually. He'll have an even more powerful force if he holds out until the arrival of the MHoG. So for now it's a race against the thaw while winter is doing much of the ICA's job for it.

Better move fast BGV, since it's 400 miles to Fairkyn, which you need to capture before the thaw...

I think that gap is more apparent than real. If you look closely, you can see that the Church shield is semitransparent. It looks like the rough ground to the south-east extends at least a little way up behind it, and that the Ice Ash comes through the mountains and runs right into the 'gap'. If that is correct, the ground in the area must be much, much higher than it looks even if it's a plateau. Since going through that area would have cut a major distance off the high road and probably the canal as well, it is a good bet that it isn't particularly passable.

My own guess is that those arctic troops are going to explode into Wyrshyms's face across the frozen lake in the Gap. In fact, they might already have done so, and Duchairn just hasn't heard about it.

Tonto Silerheels wrote:PeterZ wrote:

As I recall BGV mentally mused that he wanted Wyrshym to know he was coming at one point. I suspect that if Wyrshym weakens his position at the Gap trying to re-inforce Guarnak, he opens himself for winter combat both at the Gap and with the force moving back to Guarnak. I believe I have mentioned that it appears BGV only has half of the artic combat trained troops with him.

Yes. At another point Baron Green Valley muses that he wants Wyrshym as deeply into the Sylmahn Gap and as heavily as possible. That's not to say that Wyrshym won't weaken the gap to defend Ohlarhn, but that's what Green Valley wants.

I want to suggest that the other arctic trained troops will threaten the rear of the Sylmahn Gap by moving through the apparent gap between the Ice Ash Mountains and the Kalgaran Mountains, but the time until the thaw doesn't appear right.

~Tonto

PeterZ wrote:

isaac_newton wrote:
I dont really see how BGV can sneak up now - after all even Duchairn in Zion knows about the Abbey and the EOC winter mobility, so the GOGA troops along the Northland/Olaharne gaps axis will keeping a very wary watch for the Charisians.

I'm not saying that BGV won't advance, but it's going to be a lot more contested.

Contested with what? Any troops deployed to take on BGV will have to maneuver out in the bitter cold. what troops there are guarding Ohlarhn are outnumbered and about to be pounded. Between the Ohlarhn Gap and Guarnak is pretty much bupkis.

The attack on the abbey came as a complete total sunrise and even so we saw COGA resistance, rather than a complete collapse.

We also saw that the trench defences had been neglected. I'm pretty sure that the surviving COGA outposts would be frantically rectifying that, so their defence would be more effective.

I'm not saying that they will halt BGV, but that they will be much more difficult to winkle out. The Abbey fell in a few hours at most. I really don't see that at the larger towns further down the trail.

Furthermore long before the thaw comes?