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Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay

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Re: Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay
Post by SWM   » Fri Oct 22, 2010 4:21 pm

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bafoote wrote:DW stated that Manticore "owns" the verge shipping. Now maybe the cargo is taken out of their holds and then put into SL ships for the rest of the journey to the SL.

DW also has stated that Kalakainos and a couple other shipping lines have bigger shipping fleets than Manticore does. So, if the SL gets most of its revenue from shipping and say Manticore only "owns" 25% of the hulls, how can that add up to DW's stated 60% number?

I don't recall anywhere that says that she SL gets most of its revenue from "shipping". As I understand it, it gets most of its revenue from "products that it ships". Since a majority of its shipping goes through the Manticore Wormhole Junction, and Manticore is pretty centrally located to a large set of good shipping routes, Manticore ships have an advantage in getting shipping orders over most other non-SL nations. The fact that the SL doesn't own more shipping implies that it is relying on its own production, not its own shipping capacity, and is letting other nations handle much of the shipping. Something that it will probably regret. >:)

Your other points about Solarian shipping routes are good. Since there are plenty of hints that there are other important junctions, I do agree that other junctions probably tie into the Manticore shipping network. If Solarian-owned shipping is as weak as implied above, Manticore will have gain a tremendous advantage with every junction they manage to close off.
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Re: Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay
Post by bafoote   » Fri Oct 22, 2010 5:45 pm

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We got a very recent snerk from an OOTD(Out of the Dark) session. Where my 12x number comes from along with SL gets its money from. The SL getting its money from was put forth by Duckk about 2 months ago along with the OOTD session. That being said:

SL owns lots of shipping. IIRC in Shadow of Saganami when Kalakainos was talking to head of Monica??? It was ruminated in one of their heads that Kalakainos shipping along with several other transtellers like Jessyk, individually own far more shipping than Manticore does, but most of it seems to go through the MWHJ. I think it was in Storm From the Shadows where it was also stated that the Wormhole Junction of Manticores completely throws out of proportion the number of Manticoran hulls. Somewhere where they were talking about Lynx terminus, or maybe it was War of Honor when they first found it. Even though they don't dominate SL trade routes with hulls, as they don't have enough hulls, they do dominate the verge and because of said WHJ, they do also dominate the bottom lines of SL shipping as it saves them so much time.

With the above 2 caveats, and a perusal of the crude map we have, therefore there must be several Wormholes that tie into closely with the MWHJ to provide the 12X savings on average for sollie shipping by using said junction.

A bit clearer?

Probably just stirred the muddied water to a deeper brown...

=)

B

SWM wrote:
bafoote wrote:DW stated that Manticore "owns" the verge shipping. Now maybe the cargo is taken out of their holds and then put into SL ships for the rest of the journey to the SL.

DW also has stated that Kalakainos and a couple other shipping lines have bigger shipping fleets than Manticore does. So, if the SL gets most of its revenue from shipping and say Manticore only "owns" 25% of the hulls, how can that add up to DW's stated 60% number?

I don't recall anywhere that says that she SL gets most of its revenue from "shipping". As I understand it, it gets most of its revenue from "products that it ships". Since a majority of its shipping goes through the Manticore Wormhole Junction, and Manticore is pretty centrally located to a large set of good shipping routes, Manticore ships have an advantage in getting shipping orders over most other non-SL nations. The fact that the SL doesn't own more shipping implies that it is relying on its own production, not its own shipping capacity, and is letting other nations handle much of the shipping. Something that it will probably regret. >:)

Your other points about Solarian shipping routes are good. Since there are plenty of hints that there are other important junctions, I do agree that other junctions probably tie into the Manticore shipping network. If Solarian-owned shipping is as weak as implied above, Manticore will have gain a tremendous advantage with every junction they manage to close off.
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Re: Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay
Post by Thirdbase   » Fri Oct 22, 2010 8:53 pm

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namelessfly wrote:Valid Point.

Weber has certainly failed to inform his readers where the mothballed ships are stored. This grants him considerable literary license.

The idea of strategic dispersion makes enormous sense to me. However; not all Generals seem to grasp this concept. I recall a certain US General who decreed that all aircraft at a certain, critical airbase should be parked in nice, neat, compact rows so that it would be easier to guard them from saboteurs. This made it extremely convenient for Japanese pilots to destroy them in straffing runs during the Pearl Harbor attack. Weber would have us believe that the RMN was so averse to the concept of strategic dispersal that the only missiles to survive the OB attack were those deployed on warships or on ammunition support ships. It seems that the RMN didn't have any missiles stockpiled at stations such as Lynx or Trevers Star or Basilisks or Hancock or Silesia...

Ok; I'm being a bit unfair. It is entirely plausible that the only APOLLO pods to survive OB are either deployed on ships or ammunitions ships. However; I find it difficult to beleive that the RMN was insane enough to store all of the Mk-23 pods and Mk 16s and all of the Buttercup era, capacitor fed MDMs plus all of the SKMs for light combatants and LACs stockpiled at only three locations.


In some ways you are being unfair. LACs are being deployed as they are built and crewed to both Silesia and Talbot. As for the Apollo missiles, without knowing the production rates, they have only been in use for less than two years, and probably only in full production for months. They might not have sufficient numbers to have stockpiled them anywhere.

Now the question is where are the older missiles? Ignoring just the dispersal aspects, who in their right mind would store munitions somewhere where there are a large mixture of civilians and military personnel. It would be like having a nuclear missile depot in Newport News, VA.
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runsforcelery wrote:
Thirdbase wrote:I think that was the next novel.



Allow me to demonstrate my concision, brevity, and economy of phrase:

"Smart alec!" ;p
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Re: Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay
Post by Ensign Re-read   » Fri Oct 22, 2010 9:02 pm

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Thirdbase wrote:...Ignoring just the dispersal aspects, who in their right mind would store munitions somewhere where there are a large mixture of civilians and military personnel. It would be like having a nuclear missile depot in Newport News, VA.


Damm that WikiLeaks!!!
Is _THAT_ how you found out!?!?!?
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The Celestia "addon" for the Planet Safehold as well as the Kau-zhi and Manticore A-B star systems, are at URL:
http://www.lepp.cornell.edu/~seb/celestia/weber/.
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/68506297@N ... 740128635/
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Re: Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay
Post by namelessfly   » Sat Oct 23, 2010 4:58 am

namelessfly

The RMN would already be coping wtih the safety and security issues at the three stations because of the ships being there.

I certainly agree that the inventory of APOLLO pods would be restricted to what is on warships or ammo ships. I can see why everyone would fixate on the supply of APOLLO while ignoring other missle types. I view the Mk-16 inventory as critical because the new types all use it.

SKMs for LACs should be in dispersed storage at every SEM system.

I'd expect a huge cache of Buttercup era MDMs to be stored in remote stations, particularly Trever's Star.


Thirdbase wrote:
namelessfly wrote:Valid Point.

Weber has certainly failed to inform his readers where the mothballed ships are stored. This grants him considerable literary license.

The idea of strategic dispersion makes enormous sense to me. However; not all Generals seem to grasp this concept. I recall a certain US General who decreed that all aircraft at a certain, critical airbase should be parked in nice, neat, compact rows so that it would be easier to guard them from saboteurs. This made it extremely convenient for Japanese pilots to destroy them in straffing runs during the Pearl Harbor attack. Weber would have us believe that the RMN was so averse to the concept of strategic dispersal that the only missiles to survive the OB attack were those deployed on warships or on ammunition support ships. It seems that the RMN didn't have any missiles stockpiled at stations such as Lynx or Trevers Star or Basilisks or Hancock or Silesia...

Ok; I'm being a bit unfair. It is entirely plausible that the only APOLLO pods to survive OB are either deployed on ships or ammunitions ships. However; I find it difficult to beleive that the RMN was insane enough to store all of the Mk-23 pods and Mk 16s and all of the Buttercup era, capacitor fed MDMs plus all of the SKMs for light combatants and LACs stockpiled at only three locations.


In some ways you are being unfair. LACs are being deployed as they are built and crewed to both Silesia and Talbot. As for the Apollo missiles, without knowing the production rates, they have only been in use for less than two years, and probably only in full production for months. They might not have sufficient numbers to have stockpiled them anywhere.

Now the question is where are the older missiles? Ignoring just the dispersal aspects, who in their right mind would store munitions somewhere where there are a large mixture of civilians and military personnel. It would be like having a nuclear missile depot in Newport News, VA.
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Re: Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay
Post by Cap'n Roderick   » Sat Oct 23, 2010 5:04 am

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Thirdbase wrote:Now the question is where are the older missiles?


That's a very good point... There should be huge numbers of pre-apollo MDM's stored at every manty base between haven and the verge. Places like hancock and trevor's star for starters.

I think also the whole pearl harbor situation described earlier summed it up beautifully... SKM has apollo, and the initially limited apollo-production facilities were protected by ships with apollo. So there was nothing to worry about, right? No conventional attack could have got through, they just weren't prepared for an OB-style attack.

And certainly, had I been in the SKM's position of only just getting apollo off the ground, I'd have kept my production facilities concentrated and well-guarded, and every pod I'd produced I'd have sent straight to active service until I had enough of them on the front line to then start expanding production facilities elsewhere and start stockpiling.
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Re: Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay
Post by Thirdbase   » Sat Oct 23, 2010 6:16 am

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namelessfly wrote:The RMN would already be coping wtih the safety and security issues at the three stations because of the ships being there.


Yes, but as an example, while I was in the army as an artilleryman in Germany our ammo was stored elsewhere, and our nuke rounds were stored in a third place.

Safety and security are fine, but accidents happen, and the number of civilians on the stations would make it just a bit more than dangerous than, at least I, would accept.

Plus with civilians around, security is compromised. A solely military, or at least government station, would be more secure because civilian craft wouldn't be allowed near the station.
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runsforcelery wrote:
Thirdbase wrote:I think that was the next novel.



Allow me to demonstrate my concision, brevity, and economy of phrase:

"Smart alec!" ;p
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Re: Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay
Post by namelessfly   » Sat Oct 23, 2010 3:31 pm

namelessfly

I actually wasn't trying to be unfair to Weber. I simply made the point that by failing to specify where all of the ammo was stored he allowed himself a certain amount of flexibility.

I definately agree that everyone SHOULD be fixated on the supply of APOLLO SKMs because they have such a profound stratetigic significance. Of lessor but related importance is the inventory of Mk-23 pods. A lot of them got expended and or destroyed during the Battle of Manticore, but I'd expect quite a few to be stored at various bases. Ditto for the Buttercup era, capacitor fed MDM. After the introduction of the Mk-23 then APOLLO, people would tend to forget about them. A good analogy is how we don't think much about all of the obsolete, .308 caliber M-14 rifles and .306 M-1 Garand rifles and the ammo for them that is kept stockpiled all over. The same consideration is true for ammo to be used by LACs.

Another analogy to think about is the damage that the US sufferred at Pearl Harbor. The first assessment was that our fleet was destroyed. Of course all of the newer Batleship classes which were of far more significance weren't affected. Even more shocking is that because the water was shallow we managed to raise and repair most of the BBs that were sunk at Pearl Harbor. More Japanese civilians were killed by gun strikes from these ships then both the atomic boms combined. Talk about pay back.

One other analogy to consider is 9-11. THe early casualty estimates based on probable occupancy of the buildings combined with missing persons reports were that 30,000 to 50,000 people died. It turned out that this was a severe overstatement.

I think it is perfectly appropriate for Weber to depict his characters changing their assessment of the damage. After the shock wears out, they will start thinking about missile types other than APOLLO. They'll also have time to consider as their work crews have time to recover fragments (some as big as a quarter million tons) from the stations, inspect them, inventory them, and assess the servicability of their contents.


Thirdbase wrote:
namelessfly wrote:The RMN would already be coping wtih the safety and security issues at the three stations because of the ships being there.


Yes, but as an example, while I was in the army as an artilleryman in Germany our ammo was stored elsewhere, and our nuke rounds were stored in a third place.

Safety and security are fine, but accidents happen, and the number of civilians on the stations would make it just a bit more than dangerous than, at least I, would accept.

Plus with civilians around, security is compromised. A solely military, or at least government station, would be more secure because civilian craft wouldn't be allowed near the station.
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Re: Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay
Post by jthoma8318   » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:25 pm

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Did I misread? I thought they were only talking about the termi of their worm hole. If it is every known termini, then no I do not think they have the ships at this time to do it. Even with RH ships to bolster Manticore's defense, the spider ships are quite capable of making hit and run raids all over the place. Most likely that will be what MAN will start doing. That is really their only use. They are was too slow for really engaging another conventionally powered fleet. No matter how much armor is on them, without the wedge they are extremely vulnerable to missile attack. Eventually someone will be able to detect them. No advantage in war lasts.

Thirdbase wrote:Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that Manticore by implementing Lacoon II will be effectively declaring war upon the star nation that controls the Worm Hole. Effectively this would be like England seizing control of the Suez and Panama Canals.

Yes I realize that none of these star nations would be a threat to Manticore, but it is what they are doing.
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Re: Implenting Case Lacoon I & II after Oyster Bay
Post by jthoma8318   » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:35 pm

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You just mine the junctions. Easiest and still cheapest way of area denial. It is why we will not sign the accord banning landmines.


zuluwiz wrote:tasos74 said:
These stations would be complimentary to the Civilian stations at each side. They would provide more powerful detectors to tell when ships are inbound, and are relatively low visibility for poltical sensibilities. After the two suicide runs by the SLN many systems may want to have even some old manty station as a flag in thier system saying who backs up the local government.
Trade and travel follow military/law enforcement provided law and order (i.e. infrastructure). This leads to more SEM protectorates and all the resources and manpower they provide. All that is left afterwards is a system for admitting protectorates to parliment and possibily sector governence if the area warrants it (Silesia, Talbot, etc). Allowing early citizenship to veterans cements bonds of affinity, friendship, communication, and solidarity; not to mention providing the crown a method to create merit based peerages.[/quote]

I don't think that's the purpose of Laocoon. While the Manties MIGHT be interested in admitting systems on the far side of the wormholes of the MANTICORAN Junction, I seriously doubt they're going to have any thought of bringing in any system NOT at the end of one of those wormholes. They might very well want to set up friendly regimes in such systems, but Laocoon is a wartime measure and I have to wonder how long it can be run even then. After the war, they are going to relinquish their positions in those systems.[/quote]
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