HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)

Hi JRM, or James as you prefer;

Many kudos for keeping track of all that.

Since a ICA infantry battalion has some 1071 troops when full, the 26 battalions total almost 28,000 men before adding their artillery and support.

Figuring 3 attached FA battalions for the 3 brigades plus a FA regiment or equivalent for the division plus more for the corps means something at least around 4000 men if not nearer to 5000 for the artillery, plus the quartermasters with the supply trains [not a few] and transport units with all the snow lizard wranglers etc, and its no small force.

Nybar has less than 11,000 me at Fairkyn, with essentially nothing but 24 12 pounders in his artillery park, while BGV ought to have at least 10 times that many tubes, many firing much heavier shells, before adding all his mortars.

From what I'm reading Nybar has no chance at all.

Even if the expected reinforcements began marching now, in March, it's too late for Wyrshym, but it will be interesting as to when he gets the word Fairkyn etc has fallen.

Trying to get past BGV with all his firepower, NTM the SNARC's etc, with most of his remaining army [less 11+4.5K is ~45K] about 200 miles away at the old front moving at maybe 10-20 miles per day in April when BGV is doing twice that means if BGV leaves Fairkyn a 5day ahead of Wyrshym getting the news, BGV could still trap most of Wyrshym's army, and since Wyrshym knows he can't retreat without his army BGV might bag them all, or more than enough to eliminate the AoG's AoS from the Go4's OoB.

Will that be in the snippets or will we have until October to read the book?

L


[quote="JRM"][quote="Louis R"]Unfortunately for those - and I freely admit to being one of them - optimistic about the humanity of man to man, not only has Kynt been whistling The Pikes of Kolstyr, the last time we saw him at the end of chIV, he closed it off with the following rumination:

"If he’d ever entertained any doubts on that subject, the SNARC imagery of the Army of God’s outposts would have put them to rest. Very few of those half-frozen men, shivering in inadequate clothing as they crouched around fires in whatever structures they’d found or whatever huts they’d been able to piece together, had any interest in going anywhere else. Nor would they survive if their shelters were destroyed, Green Valley reflected, his expression bleak under the two layers of snow mask — what would have been called balaclavas back on Old Earth — and the ski goggles he and every other man in the column wore. Freezing to death was a very unpleasant way to die, and the baron took no pleasure in the thought of inflicting that particular death even on his enemies.

Which wouldn’t stop him from doing it for a moment."


[quote="n7axw"]

IIRC, playing "The Pikes of Kolstyr" is a Siddarmarkan tradition rather than a EOC one even if BGV was humming the tune.

I don't think that the feeding and care of prisoners is BGV's concern. I believe that provision for dealing with that has been made even if it was done off stage. Green Valley and his advanced corp will be on their way to Fairkyn not long after the battle at Esthyr's Abbey and whatever provision that has been made for handling prisoners will be taken care of.

After all everyone involved in setting up and supporting the op would have understood that there would be prisoners if BGV is successful and factored that into the overall planning.

Don[/quote][/quote]

Hi Louis,

I have started putting the maps up on my PC monitors when I read a Weber book, and sometimes I even list the forces so that I can keep track of who is doing what. Here is the list for the first corp.

Army of Midhold...General Kynt Clareyk, Baron of Green Valley
.1st Corp.........General Ahntaln Makrohry
..4th Mtn Div.....General Eystavyo Gardynyr
...7th Brigade....Brigadier Ahdryn Krystyphyr
....13th Regiment
......1st Battalion......................................Sit it out
......2nd Battalion......................................Sit it out
......3rd Battalion......................................Sit it out
......4th Battalion......................................Sit it out
....14th Regiment
......1st Battalion......................................Sit it out
......2nd Battalion......................................Sit it out
......3rd Battalion......................................Sit it out
......4th Battalion......................................Sit it out
...8th Brigade Brigadier Sutyls
....15th Regiment...Colonel Symohr Hyndryks
......1st Battalion..............................................South guard
......2nd Battalion.............................................South RESERVE
......3rd Battalion.............................................South RESERVE
......4th Battalion..............................................South guard
....16th Regiment...Colonel Ahlfryd Maiyrz
......1st Battalion...Major Tohmys Mahkylhin.....East Primary Assault
......2nd Battalion..Major Brygham Tahlyvyr......East Primary Assault
......3rd Battalion...Major Rahnyld Gahdarhd.....East RESERVE
......4th Battalion...Major Samyl Hylmyn............East Primary Assault

.3rd Mounted Brigade of the 2nd Division
..3rd Brigade
....5th Regiment..Colonel Gairwyl
......1st Battalion.....................................North guard
......2nd Battalion.....................................North guard
......3rd Battalion.....................................North guard
......4th Battalion.....................................North guard
....6th Regiment..Colonel Uhlstyn Yarith
......1st Battalion.....................................West guard
......2nd Battalion.....................................West guard
......3rd Battalion.....................................West guard
......4th Battalion.....................................West guard

.2 Battalions of 1st Scout Sniper Regiment
....1st Regiment
......? Battalion......................................West guard
......? Battalion......................................West guard

Notice that BGV has 26 battalions, he has assigned 3 battalions primary assault, and one battalion as reserve to the primary assault. He assigns 4 battalions to the Southern approaches, but two battalions are reserve. He assigns 4 mounted battalions to the North, and we don't know whether any are reserve. He assigns 6 battalions to the West, and again we don't know whether any are reserve. That is over 18,000 troops to take care of 5,000 enemy. If BGV wasn't trying to make sure that there was no communication going back to Wyrshym, do you think he would use so many troops to surround Esthyr's Abbey. BGV has plenty of troops available to guard POWs.

Either BGV achieves surprise at Fairken, or he doesn’t. Surprise would mean a more devastating victory over Bishop Nybar, but Nybar’s army won’t survive a retreat to Guarnak as an effective unit. BGV won’t have to waste as many troops to surround Fairken. Wyrshym’s only hope is that he is reinforced before BGV gets to Guarnak.

James[/quote]

lyonheart wrote:Hi JRM, or James as you prefer;

Many kudos for keeping track of all that.

Since a ICA infantry battalion has some 1071 troops when full, the 26 battalions total almost 28,000 men before adding their artillery and support.

Figuring 3 attached FA battalions for the 3 brigades plus a FA regiment or equivalent for the division plus more for the corps means something at least around 4000 men if not nearer to 5000 for the artillery, plus the quartermasters with the supply trains [not a few] and transport units with all the snow lizard wranglers etc, and its no small force.

Nybar has less than 11,000 me at Fairkyn, with essentially nothing but 24 12 pounders in his artillery park, while BGV ought to have at least 10 times that many tubes, many firing much heavier shells, before adding all his mortars.

From what I'm reading Nybar has no chance at all.

Even if the expected reinforcements began marching now, in March, it's too late for Wyrshym, but it will be interesting as to when he gets the word Fairkyn etc has fallen.

Trying to get past BGV with all his firepower, NTM the SNARC's etc, with most of his remaining army [less 11+4.5K is ~45K] about 200 miles away at the old front moving at maybe 10-20 miles per day in April when BGV is doing twice that means if BGV leaves Fairkyn a 5day ahead of Wyrshym getting the news, BGV could still trap most of Wyrshym's army, and since Wyrshym knows he can't retreat without his army BGV might bag them all, or more than enough to eliminate the AoG's AoS from the Go4's OoB.

Will that be in the snippets or will we have until October to read the book?

L

Yes. James did good work in gathering this info together and I, for one, am appreciative.

A couple of things I am wondering about...

We have pretty good specifics on Wyrshym's dispositions at Esthyr's Abbey and Fairkyn.

But what about the rest of his army? We know that a certain percentage is at Lake Wyvern minding the store to keep the allies on their own side of the lake. We also know that another portion is at Geurnak where Wyrshym has headquartered.

It appears to me that the portion at Lake Wyvern is trapped. If they were to start to retreat, they would uncork the Sylvyn Gap and would not only BGV to worry about, but also the allies in the gap who would be nipping at their heels.

I think that the troops at Guernak will be able to get away if they are alert enough to start marching west before BGV gets too close. Also, will the canal be available to Wyrshym before he has to move? If he has transport, he can certainly move along that canal quicker than if he has to string out his army along the high road.

Also, if Wyrshym's reinforcements are really going to arrive, they have to start out a lot quicker than they would if they wait until the locks are repaired if they are to arrive in time to prevent BGV from destroying Wyrshym. Wyrshym's smartest move might be to retreat toward his reinforcements.

The other question is will there be reinforcements. We know that Wyrahym has been promised reinforcements, but we also know that priority has been given to arming the MHOG and that every rifle Duchairn can lay hands on has been devoted to that purpose.

So where is Duchairn going to come up with weapons for those 100000 men Wyrshym is expecting?

Just musing...

Don

Before I get rambling, Thank you.to James for pulling the data on the AOM.

I'm intrigued by the possibility on a breakout in Sylmahn Gap about the time BGV takes out Gen Nybar. He's got good communications to set it up and it would put a lot more pressure on poor Wyrshym. Of course an attack through the Sylmahn Gap might ruin everything by forcing Wyrshym out of Guenak before BGV can get there.
If Clyntahn stays true to form with "hold to the last man" orders Wyrshym's gonna have to come up with some creative maneuvers if he's gonna save anything. Maybe a giant flanking attack that has to get well to the west so they can swing up around hit the blasphemous heretics from the north.

Come to think of it, the push against Kaitswyrth could be timed to go at the same time as the AOM's attacks. Neither of the other assaults have to go off with precision timing and they all have semaphore lines. Come to think of it, I'd be surprised if DE hasn't got semaphore links up and running by now.

Also wondering if Hanth might get himself in the the same situation as the hound dog who's cornered a slash lizard.

Sunday's only seven hours away and we know what can happen on alternate Saturday nights.

[quote="EdThomas"]

I'm intrigued by the possibility on a breakout in Sylmahn Gap about the time BGV takes out Gen Nybar. He's got good communications to set it up and it would put a lot more pressure on poor Wyrshym. Of course an attack through the Sylmahn Gap might ruin everything by forcing Wyrshym out of Guenak before BGV can get there.


Been wondering that myself. The question is: How much of his depleted army is in the Gap- and how much in Guarnak? I think we decided that those two places were too far apart to reinforce one another in winter.
And he has the same problem with Fairkyn.

I think you're correct about an attack in the Gap. And timing will be important- Do they make a demonstration assault sooner so that some of the Guarnak troops move south? That would make them less available to hold Guarnak when BGV shows up. (and more exhausted)
Perhaps that's why this present group is surrounded-so that no word of their demise reaches the good Bishop.

tootall wrote:

EdThomas wrote:
I'm intrigued by the possibility on a breakout in Sylmahn Gap about the time BGV takes out Gen Nybar. He's got good communications to set it up and it would put a lot more pressure on poor Wyrshym. Of course an attack through the Sylmahn Gap might ruin everything by forcing Wyrshym out of Guenak before BGV can get there.


Been wondering that myself. The question is: How much of his depleted army is in the Gap- and how much in Guarnak? I think we decided that those two places were too far apart to reinforce one another in winter.
And he has the same problem with Fairkyn.

I think you're correct about an attack in the Gap. And timing will be important- Do they make a demonstration assault sooner so that some of the Guarnak troops move south? That would make them less available to hold Guarnak when BGV shows up. (and more exhausted)
Perhaps that's why this present group is surrounded-so that no word of their demise reaches the good Bishop.

I think you guys have a good point on this one. Wyrshym has about 65,000 men including the people in Fairkyn and Esthyrs Abbey. Presumably that means 50,000 between Guernak and the Gap. My notion of when to stage the assault in the Gap is when Wyrshym starts to react to BGV so that he couldn't shift reinforcements that direction.

Don

n7axw wrote:

My notion of when to stage the assault in the Gap is when Wyrshym starts to react to BGV so that he couldn't shift reinforcements that direction.

I wish I could have quickly found my copies of the various novels, but I was too impatient, so I'm posting without checking first. Be warned that I'm going to be more prone to error than usual.

If memory serves, the canals will only be open to a small, relatively unknown city slightly South of Cat-Lizard Lake at the beginning of the Spring warring season. According to some posts by some very knowledgeable folks on this web site, Baron Green Valley ought to be crossing the Kalgaran River at that time.

As far as Saint Esther's Abby, the absolute fastest Wyrshym can learn about the loss will be two hours, which will be by semaphore. The slowest will be however fast the empty supply sleds return to Fairkyn. Either way, Wyrshym cannot make an effective response because he can't get his men out of winter quarters, and he can't ship sufficient matériel either up the Guarnak-Ice Ash nor down the Guarnak-Sylmahn. Or up the Guarnak-Sylmahn, for that matter. So, I'm predicting that Wyrsham's present dispositions are going to be his dispositions at the start of the season.

Suppose Wyrsham can start moving a reinforcing force up the Guarnak-Ice Ash the same day Green Valley crosses the Kalgaran. I predict that Green Valley will conquer Fairkyn before the reinforcements can arrive, and Wyrshym will learn about that quickly. Wyrshym will be smart and start withdrawing up the Guarnak-Sylmahn. He'll issue recall orders to the reinforcements and to the forces in the Sylmahn Gap. Green Valley will be able to communicate quickly with the Siddarmarkian forces in the gap, and will instruct them that they need to start attacking now. Wyrshym's forces in the gap will take heavy losses, Nybar will be defeated, and Wyrshym will destroy the supplies in Guarnak if he's smart.

At that point my crystal ball gets a little murkier. With the canal broken, Green Valley et. al. won't be able to attack up the Guarnak-Sylmahn any faster than Wyrshym can retreat up it. Charis can start attacking up the New Northland canal, but the CoGA is smart and will destroy the locks before Charis can get to them. Charis can also try to retake Salyk and attack up the Hildermoss, but there're locks on that river, too.

~Tonto

Tonto Silerheels wrote:n7axw wrote:

My notion of when to stage the assault in the Gap is when Wyrshym starts to react to BGV so that he couldn't shift reinforcements that direction.

I wish I could have quickly found my copies of the various novels, but I was too impatient, so I'm posting without checking first. Be warned that I'm going to be more prone to error than usual.

If memory serves, the canals will only be open to a small, relatively unknown city slightly South of Cat-Lizard Lake at the beginning of the Spring warring season. According to some posts by some very knowledgeable folks on this web site, Baron Green Valley ought to be crossing the Kalgaran River at that time.

As far as Saint Esther's Abby, the absolute fastest Wyrshym can learn about the loss will be two hours, which will be by semaphore. The slowest will be however fast the empty supply sleds return to Fairkyn. Either way, Wyrshym cannot make an effective response because he can't get his men out of winter quarters, and he can't ship sufficient matériel either up the Guarnak-Ice Ash nor down the Guarnak-Sylmahn. Or up the Guarnak-Sylmahn, for that matter. So, I'm predicting that Wyrsham's present dispositions are going to be his dispositions at the start of the season.

Suppose Wyrsham can start moving a reinforcing force up the Guarnak-Ice Ash the same day Green Valley crosses the Kalgaran. I predict that Green Valley will conquer Fairkyn before the reinforcements can arrive, and Wyrshym will learn about that quickly. Wyrshym will be smart and start withdrawing up the Guarnak-Sylmahn. He'll issue recall orders to the reinforcements and to the forces in the Sylmahn Gap. Green Valley will be able to communicate quickly with the Siddarmarkian forces in the gap, and will instruct them that they need to start attacking now. Wyrshym's forces in the gap will take heavy losses, Nybar will be defeated, and Wyrshym will destroy the supplies in Guarnak if he's smart.

At that point my crystal ball gets a little murkier. With the canal broken, Green Valley et. al. won't be able to attack up the Guarnak-Sylmahn any faster than Wyrshym can retreat up it. Charis can start attacking up the New Northland canal, but the CoGA is smart and will destroy the locks before Charis can get to them. Charis can also try to retake Salyk and attack up the Hildermoss, but there're locks on that river, too.

~Tonto

Hi Tonto,

There is no way that Wyrshym can move forces north to relieve Fairkyn for two reasons. First, as you pointed out, there isn't any time for him to do so. The second reason is that Wyrshym no longer has the numbers to do so without exposing himself to attack by alliance forces he is facing in the Gap.

In my previous comment, I was thinking about forces at Guernak reinforcing the Gap if need be. I don't think he can afford to reduce what he has in the Gap.

Don

One thing to keep in mind is that the Church probably still isn't getting an accurate count of ICA forces, and may not be doing much better keeping track of the rebuilding RSA. Wyrshym might assume, when he first learns about the movement in the north, that it's quite a small force, since he _knows_ you can't move multiple divisions in Northland in the winter, and the heretics don't have that many to move anyway. Unless stragglers make it back to Fairkyn he may not even know that the St Esthyr garrison is gone, not just cut off; he will probably expect that Nybar will be able to fall back on Ohlarhn before any major force can come up to pin him down. Depending on exactly how he reads the situation and how pessimistic he chooses to be he may at least start out thinking that the AoM is _preparing_ to flank him, not that it is in the process of doing so. That gives him a couple of options: make preparations to get out of the pocket, or make preparations to hold it until he's relieved - and I don't think any of us will be in much doubt about his choice.

Also recall that the force at Guarnak is there because he can't use it effectively in the Sylmahn Gap, not as a ready reserve for the Gap. It's much to far back for that.

Given that, it's not a matter of whether but how much he'll move north, and when. How many that is, there's no way to say: it's going to depend on whether he thinks he can move them better now, with [as far as he knows] no real time pressure but not terribly good living conditions, or later, in more of a hurry, when it's actually harder to move at all but there's less risk of dying of exposure. My own feeling is that anyone he has who can make it to Ohlarhn in fighting condition now will be sent immediately. They'll take forever to get there, moving as slowing as they will, but would still be in place sooner than expected, as in the beginning of May rather than the end, with that much more time to dig in before the Charisians get there. The rest, up to probably 2/3 of the forces still at Guarnak, will be told to get their butts up there as soon as it warms up enough, but he'll know that they won't actually move any faster because of the lousy conditions during the thaw. He faces something of a catch-22 in that respect. Whether he'll order Nybar to hold Fairkyn until he has to fall back under pressure, or pull him back now probably depends on how well Nybar's people would fare on the road [probably rather better than most people are assuming, by now] and how big a force he can move up behind him, how quickly.

If he does realise that he's actually looking at a good half of the AoM, and that it is in fact almost certain to beat him to Ohlarhn... I don't know. The map suggests that there aren't any decent blocking positions south of Ohlarhn, but that may not be the case. If there is, he'll probably do whatever it takes to get forces into it. If there isn't, OTOH, he may still think he has a good chance in an open field engagement, assuming that Green Valley's troops are going to be in rough shape after that insane march, especially if he can delay it until his reinforcements are starting to come up. Otherwise, I think he's more likely to move everything he can _into_ the Sylmahn Gap, with the intention of holding that until relieved.

How many of those decisions the Allies intend to give him the leisure to make, of course, is another matter. There should be at least one more Mountain Division wandering around somewhere...

n7axw wrote:

Tonto Silerheels wrote:n7axw wrote:

My notion of when to stage the assault in the Gap is when Wyrshym starts to react to BGV so that he couldn't shift reinforcements that direction.

I wish I could have quickly found my copies of the various novels, but I was too impatient, so I'm posting without checking first. Be warned that I'm going to be more prone to error than usual.

If memory serves, the canals will only be open to a small, relatively unknown city slightly South of Cat-Lizard Lake at the beginning of the Spring warring season. According to some posts by some very knowledgeable folks on this web site, Baron Green Valley ought to be crossing the Kalgaran River at that time.

As far as Saint Esther's Abby, the absolute fastest Wyrshym can learn about the loss will be two hours, which will be by semaphore. The slowest will be however fast the empty supply sleds return to Fairkyn. Either way, Wyrshym cannot make an effective response because he can't get his men out of winter quarters, and he can't ship sufficient matériel either up the Guarnak-Ice Ash nor down the Guarnak-Sylmahn. Or up the Guarnak-Sylmahn, for that matter. So, I'm predicting that Wyrsham's present dispositions are going to be his dispositions at the start of the season.

Suppose Wyrsham can start moving a reinforcing force up the Guarnak-Ice Ash the same day Green Valley crosses the Kalgaran. I predict that Green Valley will conquer Fairkyn before the reinforcements can arrive, and Wyrshym will learn about that quickly. Wyrshym will be smart and start withdrawing up the Guarnak-Sylmahn. He'll issue recall orders to the reinforcements and to the forces in the Sylmahn Gap. Green Valley will be able to communicate quickly with the Siddarmarkian forces in the gap, and will instruct them that they need to start attacking now. Wyrshym's forces in the gap will take heavy losses, Nybar will be defeated, and Wyrshym will destroy the supplies in Guarnak if he's smart.

At that point my crystal ball gets a little murkier. With the canal broken, Green Valley et. al. won't be able to attack up the Guarnak-Sylmahn any faster than Wyrshym can retreat up it. Charis can start attacking up the New Northland canal, but the CoGA is smart and will destroy the locks before Charis can get to them. Charis can also try to retake Salyk and attack up the Hildermoss, but there're locks on that river, too.

~Tonto

Hi Tonto,

There is no way that Wyrshym can move forces north to relieve Fairkyn for two reasons. First, as you pointed out, there isn't any time for him to do so. The second reason is that Wyrshym no longer has the numbers to do so without exposing himself to attack by alliance forces he is facing in the Gap.

In my previous comment, I was thinking about forces at Guernak reinforcing the Gap if need be. I don't think he can afford to reduce what he has in the Gap.

Don

Priority isn't exclusivity

The diversion was from new production. The weapons for Wyrshym's own withdrawn troops were probably already en route when that call was made, and it's quite possible that they've even been swapped for better ones by now. By the same token, there are probably other AoG formations already being raised and equipped, and I rather doubt that their equipment was taken away from them. They may not be fully equipped, since pikes were more than likely part of the original TOE, but the troops that do have firearms could easily be moved up separately.

Finally, what makes you think that those 100,000 weren't drawn from the forward elements of the MHOGATA? If Clyntahn isn't insisting on treating them as his own personal steamroller, Magwair is certainly smart enough to deploy them as they come forward, and put them into existing formations under commanders who are at least aware that there is an elephant, rather than waiting forever for them to be concentrated again. And if Clyntahn _does_ buy into that deployment, you can be sure that their Indendants will give pretty short shrift to any notions the Harchongians will be entertaining about who is superior to whom, and the alacrity with which orders are to be obeyed.

n7axw wrote:< snip >

The other question is will there be reinforcements. We know that Wyrahym has been promised reinforcements, but we also know that priority has been given to arming the MHOG and that every rifle Duchairn can lay hands on has been devoted to that purpose.

So where is Duchairn going to come up with weapons for those 100000 men Wyrshym is expecting?

Just musing...

Don

Hi Louis R,

Kudos for the excellent points.

From the snippet, the odds of any stragglers surviving let alone traveling some 500 miles to Fairkyn ahead of BGV are extremely slim if not none.

If there were one, I suspect BGV would have far fewer qualms about having OWL kill him with a SNARC than Merlin.

Ohlarhn is some 147 miles from Fairkyn, as best as I can figure it, and its 3 times that from the canal junction which is some 40 miles west of Guarnak; so its unlikely that Nybar will consider falling back so far in winter at 55+ degrees north on a planet rather colder than earth, especially in the forlorn hope of being rescued by Wyrshym.

Given Nybar's artillery disparity, NTM the other firepower and mobility advantages BGV will exploit, trying to retreat anywhere could quite quickly become a rout, allowing BGV to pursue and eliminate if not capture all those attempting to flee, assuming they could in the winter or thaw.

Even if Wyrshym were to be somehow warned, which won't be until its too late IMO, there's no way he could travel over 480 miles to rescue Nybar at Ohlarhn assuming Nybar made it, when BGV would have less than a third the distance to move to Ohlarhn, which he would also do much faster, assuming he permitted Nybar to escape from Fairkyn in the first place.

Since Wyrshym has only around 50-51,000 troops combined at Guarnak and the Sylmahn Gap, I'd agree ~2/3 were still at the gap, that is around 200 miles further south of Guarnak, much to far to join him in time to counter BGV, even if he were so inclined to wait [the delay would doom them all], and while he could very well think he might outnumber BGV's "small force" according to Clyntahn's spies with ~17,000 men, 1st Corps would easily swamp him, and I suspect he'd know that he'd be doomed before actually experiencing it all.

I don't know how BGV will handle the semaphore stations beyond Fairkyn or Ohlarhn, I can only assume he does have some plan, possibly involving OWL/SNARC sabotage ie easily explained "accidents" that delays any warning until it's too late; we'll see.

I also wonder if OWL and Nahrmahn might or could use the evident holographic projector capabilities to send false semaphore messages of assurance etc.

Regarding the thaw, or 'General Mud' as he is often known, which may be and has often been worse than 'General Winter' in stopping mobile operations completely on occasion, could BGV and the ICA have also come up with ways to travel faster in the thaw as well?

With OWL's help, I suspect BGV would keep prodding new thinking to increase the ICA's mobility advantage, although beyond 'duck-foot' boots etc, I don't know what they might be at this point, though bikes or trikes on the high roads, if they've been brought along, also come to mind, but as an unlikely possibility from Allyntyn for the whole corps.

But not for just one brigade, if brought by Ice boats or yachts on the Ice Ash river from Ranshair!

We have overlooked [again] another place that RFC has, may or will demonstrate he's much smarter or better informed than his fans.

Personally I expect that BGV, being some 5 degrees further north than Wyrshym, will experience the thaw rather later than the rest of the AoG/AoS, enabling him to move faster for a while longer on the ice and snow even if the ICA doesn't have techniques or equipment to move faster through the mud etc.

I expect the thaw will trap the remaining 2/3 [or ~34,000 men] of the AoS still at the gap, even if they tried to retreat; particularly if the allied force exploits the superior mobility of the lake using barges and its artillery advantage to trap the AoS's rather thinly held lines at the lake's edge before they can move out of range of the likely many artillery barges.

If not BGV will easily stop them, even if Wyrshym immediately flees west rather than fight, his force being only 13% of what he brought last summer [a tremendous allied victory], assuming he isn't brought to battle around Five Forks etc.

Personally I expect Wyrshym's AoS to effectively destroyed as an army, giving the claimed ~100,000 reinforcements reasons to pause and reflect before advancing into another such potential debacle.

Certainly interesting times at least.

L

Louis R wrote:One thing to keep in mind is that the Church probably still isn't getting an accurate count of ICA forces, and may not be doing much better keeping track of the rebuilding RSA. Wyrshym might assume, when he first learns about the movement in the north, that it's quite a small force, since he _knows_ you can't move multiple divisions in Northland in the winter, and the heretics don't have that many to move anyway. Unless stragglers make it back to Fairkyn he may not even know that the St Esthyr garrison is gone, not just cut off; he will probably expect that Nybar will be able to fall back on Ohlarhn before any major force can come up to pin him down. Depending on exactly how he reads the situation and how pessimistic he chooses to be he may at least start out thinking that the AoM is _preparing_ to flank him, not that it is in the process of doing so. That gives him a couple of options: make preparations to get out of the pocket, or make preparations to hold it until he's relieved - and I don't think any of us will be in much doubt about his choice.

Also recall that the force at Guarnak is there because he can't use it effectively in the Sylmahn Gap, not as a ready reserve for the Gap. It's much to far back for that.

Given that, it's not a matter of whether but how much he'll move north, and when. How many that is, there's no way to say: it's going to depend on whether he thinks he can move them better now, with [as far as he knows] no real time pressure but not terribly good living conditions, or later, in more of a hurry, when it's actually harder to move at all but there's less risk of dying of exposure. My own feeling is that anyone he has who can make it to Ohlarhn in fighting condition now will be sent immediately. They'll take forever to get there, moving as slowing as they will, but would still be in place sooner than expected, as in the beginning of May rather than the end, with that much more time to dig in before the Charisians get there. The rest, up to probably 2/3 of the forces still at Guarnak, will be told to get their butts up there as soon as it warms up enough, but he'll know that they won't actually move any faster because of the lousy conditions during the thaw. He faces something of a catch-22 in that respect. Whether he'll order Nybar to hold Fairkyn until he has to fall back under pressure, or pull him back now probably depends on how well Nybar's people would fare on the road [probably rather better than most people are assuming, by now] and how big a force he can move up behind him, how quickly.

If he does realise that he's actually looking at a good half of the AoM, and that it is in fact almost certain to beat him to Ohlarhn... I don't know. The map suggests that there aren't any decent blocking positions south of Ohlarhn, but that may not be the case. If there is, he'll probably do whatever it takes to get forces into it. If there isn't, OTOH, he may still think he has a good chance in an open field engagement, assuming that Green Valley's troops are going to be in rough shape after that insane march, especially if he can delay it until his reinforcements are starting to come up. Otherwise, I think he's more likely to move everything he can _into_ the Sylmahn Gap, with the intention of holding that until relieved.

How many of those decisions the Allies intend to give him the leisure to make, of course, is another matter. There should be at least one more Mountain Division wandering around somewhere...

*quote="n7axw"*[quote="Tonto Silerheels"]n7axw wrote:

My notion of when to stage the assault in the Gap is when Wyrshym starts to react to BGV so that he couldn't shift reinforcements that direction.

I wish I could have quickly found my copies of the various novels, but I was too impatient, so I'm posting without checking first. Be warned that I'm going to be more prone to error than usual.

If memory serves, the canals will only be open to a small, relatively unknown city slightly South of Cat-Lizard Lake at the beginning of the Spring warring season. According to some posts by some very knowledgeable folks on this web site, Baron Green Valley ought to be crossing the Kalgaran River at that time.

As far as Saint Esther's Abby, the absolute fastest Wyrshym can learn about the loss will be two hours, which will be by semaphore. The slowest will be however fast the empty supply sleds return to Fairkyn. Either way, Wyrshym cannot make an effective response because he can't get his men out of winter quarters, and he can't ship sufficient matériel either up the Guarnak-Ice Ash nor down the Guarnak-Sylmahn. Or up the Guarnak-Sylmahn, for that matter. So, I'm predicting that Wyrsham's present dispositions are going to be his dispositions at the start of the season.

Suppose Wyrsham can start moving a reinforcing force up the Guarnak-Ice Ash the same day Green Valley crosses the Kalgaran. I predict that Green Valley will conquer Fairkyn before the reinforcements can arrive, and Wyrshym will learn about that quickly. Wyrshym will be smart and start withdrawing up the Guarnak-Sylmahn. He'll issue recall orders to the reinforcements and to the forces in the Sylmahn Gap. Green Valley will be able to communicate quickly with the Siddarmarkian forces in the gap, and will instruct them that they need to start attacking now. Wyrshym's forces in the gap will take heavy losses, Nybar will be defeated, and Wyrshym will destroy the supplies in Guarnak if he's smart.

At that point my crystal ball gets a little murkier. With the canal broken, Green Valley et. al. won't be able to attack up the Guarnak-Sylmahn any faster than Wyrshym can retreat up it. Charis can start attacking up the New Northland canal, but the CoGA is smart and will destroy the locks before Charis can get to them. Charis can also try to retake Salyk and attack up the Hildermoss, but there're locks on that river, too.

~Tonto

Hi Tonto,

There is no way that Wyrshym can move forces north to relieve Fairkyn for two reasons. First, as you pointed out, there isn't any time for him to do so. The second reason is that Wyrshym no longer has the numbers to do so without exposing himself to attack by alliance forces he is facing in the Gap.

In my previous comment, I was thinking about forces at Guernak reinforcing the Gap if need be. I don't think he can afford to reduce what he has in the Gap.

Don*quote**quote*