Yow wrote:My last post was rhetorical. We already know what the US military did. What they didn't do was was cut and run. What they didn't do was mutiny by the droves. They rolled up their sleeves and got down to business. It's human nature.
The analogy still does not work. The U.S. got a bit pasted at Pearl Harbor and early in the Pacific war, but they were never facing weapons against which they could do nothing but hurl ships to die. And - by the 1940's, certainly - there was a national identity and pride to defend.
The business of the SLN has been looking pretty and dangerous while feathering one's own nest. If they roll up their sleeves, that's still most of what they're prepared to do. Battle Fleet, at least. Frontier Fleet is ready to be privateers and to support the Gendarmerie with KEW's.
I'm sure Frontier Fleet units are decently prepared to blow away or capture undefended merchant ships and raid undefended planets. For that matter, they could teach BF how to do that if BF would listen. They've never fought a peer opponent, but I'll even grant that the SLN has competent officers, capable crews, and working ships that could make some decent showing in that case. But that's not what they are facing.
Furthermore, there aren't people willing to die for the League. Damien Harahap and Thandi Palane are typical examples of League officers. The League forces were a way to get ahead: Harahap cut out when he found a better way to make money and play the game; Palane did when she found an object of genuine, heartfelt loyalty - and that was a seventeen year-old pre-monarch and a single planet full of slaves yet to be liberated.
This is not asking the SLN to roll up their sleeves and get to work as the U.S. after Pearl Harbor. This is more like asking Japan to roll up their sleeves and get to work after Nagasaki - only instead of Japan as a national identity, make it the International Monetary Fund.
I don't believe the League will win against Manticore and Haven but I do believe it will hurt them in the long run. I even believe the League will still be there when the dust settles, trimmed down and humbled
to be sure but still there. Hell, I'll even venture to say that they'll even join the GA against the Alignment. The mutinies mentioned I believe aren't because of the harshness and horrors of battles faced and fought against ones enemies but of the harshness and horrors impinged by the government upon the governed and serving. The League and SLN ( both Battle Fleet and Frontier Fleet) have in my opinion not gotten to that point yet. Even when the League loses to the GA they won't reach that point.
Mutinies can happen for a lot of reasons. The Roman emperors did not treat the barbarian auxiliaries too badly consistently, but when the empire was in trouble, those auxiliaries opted to become raiders instead of defenders. The Kiel mutiny was in part due to sheer fear of the enemy and a sense that this attack was being ordered for bad and pointless reasons. The SLN fleets will find themselves in precisely that situation.
And the initiative doesn't always have to come from within the military. Barregos in the Maya Sector is about to break off and create an independent polity larger than the SEM, Republic of Haven, or Andermani Empire. That's going to depend on the military assessing their chances against the GA versus the rest of the SLN - and their respective willingness to fight, when the SLN would be fighting for... graft, really, and the Maya Detachment for a new, free nation organized for the benefit of its citizens.