HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)

lyonheart wrote:Hi Isaac Newton,

Thanks for the data and link.

Taking out Nybar means eliminating the best of Wyrshym's army without the rest having a clue how it was done, demoralizing those who know; 'because if those guys didn't have a chance, we're toast' will spread no matter what the command [and inquisition] orders kept quiet.

The garrison at Esthyr's Abbey of 4500 men requires some 33.75 tons of food per 5day, or 5 dragon wagon loads every 20 days, plus at least the same if not double or triple that number of dragons for coal or fuel wood [from the description they were running out of local trees quickly], plus cooking oil, fodder [up to ~20 wagon loads for the 3 remaining cavalry regiments], ammunition and clothing etc for roughly up around 44 dragon wagon loads every 4 5days, and BGV may have scheduled his attack just after the last arrival and departure; or possibly before departure, depending on your judgement of when is best.

L

isaac_newton wrote:SNIP

lyonheart wrote:Hi Peter2,

Given its around 500 miles from Fairkyn to just the Ice Ash and Guarnak-Sylmahn canal junction, two days or just over 53 hours [assuming the moon cooperates] means an average speed of less than 10 mph, wall impacts or collisions at that speed usually aren't too serious or fatal, and I'm more than willing to accept 3-4 days or 5-6 mph for the transit and still secure strategic surprise on Wyrshym.

The canal is 50 yards wide so the ice boats have more maneuver room than you may have considered, and I expect the second wave of scouts might hang navigation lanterns a few feet down on the canal walls every few hundred yards after dark if the moon is late for the main body to guide on.

My previous posts explained I was less interested in speed than delivering BGV ready for battle, ie larger slower ice boats massing more for more cargo, which the RCA might have had some, but ICA could definitely afford many more and bigger ones.

Depending on your estimate of their carrying capacity, and a reasonable safety gap, say ~400 yards for each large cargo boat, 150-200 such might mean a line some 34-45 miles long, advancing ~250 miles per day.

Remember RFC pointing out the the ICA had developed some unusually rapid winter transport?

Ice boats might have been part of what he was hinting at.

L

[snip]

isaac_newton wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Isaac Newton,

Thanks for the data and link.

Taking out Nybar means eliminating the best of Wyrshym's army without the rest having a clue how it was done, demoralizing those who know; 'because if those guys didn't have a chance, we're toast' will spread no matter what the command [and inquisition] orders kept quiet.

The garrison at Esthyr's Abbey of 4500 men requires some 33.75 tons of food per 5day, or 5 dragon wagon loads every 20 days, plus at least the same if not double or triple that number of dragons for coal or fuel wood [from the description they were running out of local trees quickly], plus cooking oil, fodder [up to ~20 wagon loads for the 3 remaining cavalry regiments], ammunition and clothing etc for roughly up around 44 dragon wagon loads every 4 5days, and BGV may have scheduled his attack just after the last arrival and departure; or possibly before departure, depending on your judgement of when is best.

L


*quote="isaac_newton"*SNIP

Peter2 wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Peter2,

Given its around 500 miles from Fairkyn to just the Ice Ash and Guarnak-Sylmahn canal junction, two days or just over 53 hours [assuming the moon cooperates] means an average speed of less than 10 mph, wall impacts or collisions at that speed usually aren't too serious or fatal, and I'm more than willing to accept 3-4 days or 5-6 mph for the transit and still secure strategic surprise on Wyrshym.

The canal is 50 yards wide so the ice boats have more maneuver room than you may have considered, and I expect the second wave of scouts might hang navigation lanterns a few feet down on the canal walls every few hundred yards after dark if the moon is late for the main body to guide on.

My previous posts explained I was less interested in speed than delivering BGV ready for battle, ie larger slower ice boats massing more for more cargo, which the RCA might have had some, but ICA could definitely afford many more and bigger ones.

Depending on your estimate of their carrying capacity, and a reasonable safety gap, say ~400 yards for each large cargo boat, 150-200 such might mean a line some 34-45 miles long, advancing ~250 miles per day.

Remember RFC pointing out the the ICA had developed some unusually rapid winter transport?

Ice boats might have been part of what he was hinting at.

L

[snip]

Hi Lyonheart, and thank you for that. I take your points about the width of the canals and the increased flexibility that gives.

The river by where we used to live is roughly 40 yards wide, with a dinghy sailing club on it. I've occasionally watched them race, and the reason for my doubts arises from watching them. Running before the wind is no problem, and on a dead run, they can get up a pretty decent speed. However, they have to do a considerable amount of tacking to sail upwind, and the width of the river then comes into play. I still have doubts that anything sail-propelled much bigger than the dinghies could make any sort of decent progress against contrary winds on water of such limited width. They would have to wait for following winds – which of course would hinder traffic coming the other way. Galleys would work, but would have to pass each other with care.

(For background – there is a weir a few miles downriver to control levels, so there is no navigable connection with the sea, and the land upriver is arable, so there is no incentive to get bigger boats up it.)

lyonheart wrote:Hi Peter2,

The Wiki article on ice boats says they can travel up to ten times the wind velocity and within 7 degrees of the wind, which for 1 or 2 man crews sail handling is quite impressive.

The Icicle, built in 1869 for FDR's Uncle John, was ~69 feet long and carried over a thousand square feet of sail and regularly beat the train to Poughkeepsie.

50 yards is still quite a narrow path, and RFC could easily blow my supposition out of the ice for several reasons, but until then its still possible.

L

lyonheart wrote:Hi Peter2,

The Wiki article on ice boats says they can travel up to ten times the wind velocity and within 7 degrees of the wind, which for 1 or 2 man crews sail handling is quite impressive.

The Icicle, built in 1869 for FDR's Uncle John, was ~69 feet long and carried over a thousand square feet of sail and regularly beat the train to Poughkeepsie.

50 yards is still quite a narrow path, and RFC could easily blow my supposition out of the ice for several reasons, but until then its still possible.

L

EdThomas wrote:

n7axw wrote:Do we have any textev to suggest that the second wave has moved out of Allyntyn? I don't remember any..


Don

hi Don,
I don't recall any and must admit to engaging in some not so wild speculation that he's not going to leave the rest of the Corp sitting in Allyntyn while he marches on with his 2 brigades to Fairkyn.
The High Roads to and from Allyntyn are going to be his Main Supply Route until gets to Fairkyn at a minimum. The MSR has to be built which means depots at about a days march apart, repair facilities, corrals for the caribou, snow dragons and High Hallows etc, etc.
Even though he knows he's not going to run into anything significant , he has to make like he thinks he might so he can't leave his main body/reserve too far behind. I picked a day's march. USMA74 and/or Lyonheart can probably tell us how this kind of movement is done in real life (hint, hint )
MSR depots would probably also include secure detention facilities to allow pows to be moved to permanet camps. It would make sense to build such a facility right there at the Abbey.
Troop movement along the MSR might utilize large sleds or wagons to carry two-legged items to decrease transit times.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Peter2,

The Wiki article on ice boats says they can travel up to ten times the wind velocity and within 7 degrees of the wind, which for 1 or 2 man crews sail handling is quite impressive.

SNIP

USMA74 wrote:SNIP
As requested:

ATTP 3-97.11, Cold Region Operations, dated 2011 provides the following information:

"The normal planning rate for troops on hard-packed, gently rolling terrain is 4 kilometers (KM) per hour. When crossing snow or hilly terrain, this rate decreases. Table 4-1 helps leaders judge the approximate rate of march for troops. These figures were calculated with personnel wearing the typical combat load."

Extract from that referenced Table 4-1, Rates of march for individual movement:

On foot, no ski or snowshoe in less than 30 centimeter (cm) of snow an individual can move 1.5 to 3 kilometers per hour (kph) on an unbroken trail. On a broken trail that individual can move 2 to 3 kph.

On foot, no ski or snowshoe in more than 30 cm of snow an individual can move .5 to 1 kph on an unbroken trail. On a broken trail that individual can move 2 to 3 kph.

Using snowshoes an individual can move 1.5 to 3 kph on an unbroken trail and 3 to 4 kph on a broken trail.

A skiing individual can move 1.5 to 5 kph on an unbroken trail and 5 to 6 kph on a broken trail.

Add 1 hour for every 300 meters of ascent and 1 hour for every 600 meters of decent.

Unbroken trail is moving through undisturbed--or unbroken--snow greater than 30 cm, the lead two or three personnel have to pack the snow for the rest of file. Once accomplished, the trial then becomes broken. The lead personnel will exert more effort and will need to be cycled to the rear of the formation every 15 to 30 minutes.

Please remember that groups, especially large groups, move slower than an individual can move.