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HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)

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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by n7axw   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:02 pm

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EdThomas wrote:At this point we don't know where BGV's main body is. Is it outlandish to think it might be 20-30 miles ( a day's march?) behind, moving on the high road in what is essentially an administrative movement? They would be setting up pow camps, semaphore stations and convoy stopping points along the road preparing it to be their main suppply route to Fairkyn at a minimum and possibly all the way to Guarnak.

We're told everything west of Esthyr's Abbey has been evacuated to Fairkyn and further west. Other than semaphore station crews along the high road and possibly a small detachment at St Zhana the path west to Fairkyn should just be a long administrative movement at best possible speed. Rotating Scout/sniper units will be used to take semaphore stations ahead of the column with as little damage as possible and to provide advance security.

Once we get past Esthyr's Abbey it may be a long time before we hear from BGV again. Thoughts on how this might go otherwise?


Do we have any textev to suggest that the second wave has moved out of Allyntyn? I don't remember any..


Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by cirret   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 4:36 pm

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I don't see the problems everybody gets with the prisoners and feeding them compared to feeding the people in the internation camps. the abby is relativaly close to allyntyn wich i think is te main supply base. Logistics start to hurt signicanty if they have a long way to go, like to the internation camps.

My guess is that the abby and village wil become a major forward supply base after they capture it. That means alot of emtpty vihicles moving back empty to allyntyn.
Put the prisoners in nominal winter gear so there dead if they trie to escape but don't freeze to dead while they beeing moved. And after a while there al gone.

You move over (or leave) a battlelion riffleman for security and they can watch the prisoners while there still there.

justdave wrote:
Dutch46 wrote:Then there is the fact that he will have a ready made containment in the portion of the village that remains intact after the attack. As to the number of guards required, circumstances allow for a minimum number. Any prisoner that is foolish enough to try to walk out is welcome to do so but only with the clothes on his back.


I agree, Esthyr’s Abbey will make an adequate POW camp and need a minimal guard force since there's no need to man the camp 'walls'
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by n7axw   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 6:17 pm

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cirret wrote:I don't see the problems everybody gets with the prisoners and feeding them compared to feeding the people in the internation camps. the abby is relativaly close to allyntyn wich i think is te main supply base. Logistics start to hurt signicanty if they have a long way to go, like to the internation camps.

My guess is that the abby and village wil become a major forward supply base after they capture it. That means alot of emtpty vihicles moving back empty to allyntyn.
Put the prisoners in nominal winter gear so there dead if they trie to escape but don't freeze to dead while they beeing moved. And after a while there al gone.

You move over (or leave) a battlelion riffleman for security and they can watch the prisoners while there still there.



What you've just proposed would have my vote. From the description of Esthyr's Abbey's location in the snippet, Allyntyn would be about 200 miles back on the trail. Given winter travel conditions, that would be 10 to 15 days not taking into account the possibility of storms. If they are warmly enough dressed to keep them from freezing and fed, they should survive that ok.

The other thought would be to move the supply head forward to Esthyr's Abbey along with BGV's second corp and leave the pows right where they are until it warms up a bit more so as to make it easier to move them. Either way would work, I think. The second alternative would have the advantage of shortening BGV's supply line.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by EdThomas   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 7:49 pm

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n7axw wrote:Do we have any textev to suggest that the second wave has moved out of Allyntyn? I don't remember any..


Don


hi Don,
I don't recall any and must admit to engaging in some not so wild speculation :) that he's not going to leave the rest of the Corp sitting in Allyntyn while he marches on with his 2 brigades to Fairkyn.
The High Roads to and from Allyntyn are going to be his Main Supply Route until gets to Fairkyn at a minimum. The MSR has to be built which means depots at about a days march apart, repair facilities, corrals for the caribou, snow dragons and High Hallows etc, etc.
Even though he knows he's not going to run into anything significant , he has to make like he thinks he might so he can't leave his main body/reserve too far behind. I picked a day's march. USMA74 and/or Lyonheart can probably tell us how this kind of movement is done in real life (hint, hint :) )
MSR depots would probably also include secure detention facilities to allow pows to be moved to permanet camps. It would make sense to build such a facility right there at the Abbey.
Troop movement along the MSR might utilize large sleds or wagons to carry two-legged items to decrease transit times.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by n7axw   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:44 pm

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EdThomas wrote:
n7axw wrote:Do we have any textev to suggest that the second wave has moved out of Allyntyn? I don't remember any..


Don


hi Don,
I don't recall any and must admit to engaging in some not so wild speculation :) that he's not going to leave the rest of the Corp sitting in Allyntyn while he marches on with his 2 brigades to Fairkyn.
The High Roads to and from Allyntyn are going to be his Main Supply Route until gets to Fairkyn at a minimum. The MSR has to be built which means depots at about a days march apart, repair facilities, corrals for the caribou, snow dragons and High Hallows etc, etc.
Even though he knows he's not going to run into anything significant , he has to make like he thinks he might so he can't leave his main body/reserve too far behind. I picked a day's march. USMA74 and/or Lyonheart can probably tell us how this kind of movement is done in real life (hint, hint :) )
MSR depots would probably also include secure detention facilities to allow pows to be moved to permanet camps. It would make sense to build such a facility right there at the Abbey.
Troop movement along the MSR might utilize large sleds or wagons to carry two-legged items to decrease transit times.


There is good sense to a facility for POWs at Esthyr's Abbey right now. But it probably would be better to transport them somewhere where winter wouldn't make their mantainence so challenging and supply a bit more readily available.

But I agree that it would make sense to move both BGV's reinforcements and the supply head forward. It's roughly 500 miles to Fairkyn and the canal probably won't be open by the time he gets there, at least if he makes his schedule to be knocking on the door at knocking on the door at Guernak by spring thaw. After all, Guenack is another 500 miles minimum.

It all looks pretty stretched out to me. It wouldn't be surprising if BGV had to move the supply head forward yet again before he reaches Fairkyn.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by jgnfld   » Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:47 am

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No one seems to be thinking that BGV won't have to commit an atrocity. The Inquestion or army may commit some sort of act themselves.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by JRM   » Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:55 am

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n7axw wrote:
EdThomas wrote:
hi Don,
I don't recall any and must admit to engaging in some not so wild speculation :) that he's not going to leave the rest of the Corp sitting in Allyntyn while he marches on with his 2 brigades to Fairkyn.
The High Roads to and from Allyntyn are going to be his Main Supply Route until gets to Fairkyn at a minimum. The MSR has to be built which means depots at about a days march apart, repair facilities, corrals for the caribou, snow dragons and High Hallows etc, etc.
Even though he knows he's not going to run into anything significant , he has to make like he thinks he might so he can't leave his main body/reserve too far behind. I picked a day's march. USMA74 and/or Lyonheart can probably tell us how this kind of movement is done in real life (hint, hint :) )
MSR depots would probably also include secure detention facilities to allow pows to be moved to permanet camps. It would make sense to build such a facility right there at the Abbey.
Troop movement along the MSR might utilize large sleds or wagons to carry two-legged items to decrease transit times.


There is good sense to a facility for POWs at Esthyr's Abbey right now. But it probably would be better to transport them somewhere where winter wouldn't make their mantainence so challenging and supply a bit more readily available.

But I agree that it would make sense to move both BGV's reinforcements and the supply head forward. It's roughly 500 miles to Fairkyn and the canal probably won't be open by the time he gets there, at least if he makes his schedule to be knocking on the door at knocking on the door at Guernak by spring thaw. After all, Guenack is another 500 miles minimum.

It all looks pretty stretched out to me. It wouldn't be surprising if BGV had to move the supply head forward yet again before he reaches Fairkyn.

Don


Hi Don and Ed,

BGV says that from Esthry's Abby to the Kalgaran river is 360 miles. Fairken should be closer to 430 miles than 500.

Ed, I like your idea of depots on the MSR. I am getting my GUESSES in for BGV's campaign:

Work on restoring the Guarnak-Sylmahn Canal below the Wyvern Lake was begun as soon as BGV left the Sylmahn Gap. BGV’s subordinate proposed using an artillery barge to attack the AOG at the top of the gap. I think that BGV will use one of the Rivers with the 6” breach loading guns to attack the AOG at the top of the gap. I think that the River will be used as an ice breaker to clear the ice in the canal and Lake Wyvern about a week before the ice is broken on the AOG side of the gap.

I was wondering if the caribou sleds were as slow and as limited in daily range as infantrymen on snowshoes. I had a mental comparison of an oxen pulled wagon verses a Russian Troika. So I looked up caribou, and found out that reindeer are members of the caribou family. I looked up reindeer as draft animals. The Russians used reindeer in both WWI and WWII. I found this youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJHxUEgxzfY

So, I think that since RFC says the caribou were genetically modified, that we can assume that caribou sleds can go quite a bit further per day than marching men. I think that depots would have been set up to supply fresh caribou all the way from Tempah, where the critical supplies for BGV ( Rifles, pistols, and ammunition ) would be landed. I think that with increased speed, and fresh teams critical freight can be forwarded to BGV at least three to four times faster than the troops marching.

James
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by isaac_newton   » Thu Jun 11, 2015 2:32 am

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Thinking about the next stage and security...

COGA Preskyt at Esthyr’s Abbey [surrounded]
Nybar at Fairkyn about 500 miles away, but intervening towns evacuated.

I guess that BGV would really, really like to get at Nybar and his men and ideally without Nybar being aware of his coming.

Is that likely or just a wild dream?

I guess that none of the troops at the Abbey will get out, but what about:
- those carrier things [name escapes me]
- incoming COGA food transports
- troops from EA out on patrol?
- semaphore [would this still be in operation, given the man power needs?]

Incidentally, I went to St Albans last weekend. There is an old medieval tower there in the town. During the Napoleonic Wars that was used as a support for a semaphore in part of a chain that ran from the Admiralty in London to Great Yarmouth on the east coast, and also in the opposite direction to Portsmouth and then the western chanel ports.

The pictures of the semaphore looked just like what I had imagined the Safehold system looked like [system invented by a Rev George Murray].

There were some interesting points, esp relevant to the current story:
- tower was about 60-70 foot high
- next tower in chain was right on the horizon. It required the use of good telescopes.
- average seperation was about 11 miles
- downtime due weather was about 100days/year
- had a team of 5 [including a half pay officer]
- a simple message could run the entire length in about 15 minutes

FYI here is a link, more about the southern arm of the chain
http://www.portsdown-tunnels.org.uk/anc ... ph_p1.html

Doing the numbers, a chain from SE to Fairkyn would need about 40-50 towers [500/10], with a absolute minimum staff of 250 men - no replacements/no security, more likely 3-400, maybe more.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:46 am

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Hi Peter2,

Given its around 500 miles from Fairkyn to just the Ice Ash and Guarnak-Sylmahn canal junction, two days or just over 53 hours [assuming the moon cooperates] means an average speed of less than 10 mph, wall impacts or collisions at that speed usually aren't too serious or fatal, and I'm more than willing to accept 3-4 days or 5-6 mph for the transit and still secure strategic surprise on Wyrshym.

The canal is 50 yards wide so the ice boats have more maneuver room than you may have considered, and I expect the second wave of scouts might hang navigation lanterns a few feet down on the canal walls every few hundred yards after dark if the moon is late for the main body to guide on.

My previous posts explained I was less interested in speed than delivering BGV ready for battle, ie larger slower ice boats massing more for more cargo, which the RCA might have had some, but ICA could definitely afford many more and bigger ones.

Depending on your estimate of their carrying capacity, and a reasonable safety gap, say ~400 yards for each large cargo boat, 150-200 such might mean a line some 34-45 miles long, advancing ~250 miles per day.

Remember RFC pointing out the the ICA had developed some unusually rapid winter transport?

Ice boats might have been part of what he was hinting at.

L


Peter2 wrote:
lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

It's still March, and the first reinforcements won't arrive until May at best, so I think he still has plenty of time to get most of the way to Guarnak, RFC willing. ;)

There's been speculation about Wyrshym retreating to Five Forks before being compelled to surrender, and RFC could very well have set that up quite intentionally. ;) 8-)

We don't know where exactly Esthyr's Abbey is in the Northland Gap, but if its in the middle of the gap Fairkyn is another 500 miles west, with just over 500 more to Guarnak; and if BGV stuck to the road most of the way to the Abbey, he's traveled around 200 miles so far.

Due to the imprecision of the dates we have so far, we don't have an daily average to plot how long it may take to reach Fairkyn, which I don't think is an accident on RFC's part. ;)

If, as I've speculated before, ice racers from Ranshair, massing up to 100 tons or more like those on the Hudson ~120 years ago, could resupply BGV via the Ice Ash river or its Kalgaran east fork, replenishing him for a quicker lunge at Fairkyn, as well as a surprise far faster drive down the frozen Ice Ash canal than Wyrshym realizes is possible, because he's not familiar with the Chisholmian sport of ice racing where sustained speeds of 30 mph are common. ;) 8-)

If the moon is then amenable for after dark navigation [the annual Hudson ice races were 24 hours straight through the night etc], BGV might then reach the Guarnak-Sylmahn in only a day or two [or 3-4], and Wyrshym is thus toast. 8-)

Given my record of past predictions that's not going to happen, but sometimes you get closer than others. ;)

If only half of Wyrshym's army is trapped and he's forced to fight a delaying action as he retreats up the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal, where he loses his rear guard in almost every engagement, he might not have much left when he reaches Five forks anyway, and his anticipated reinforcements have been delayed by the weather and/or other inner circle or allied operations.

L




Ice boats on a frozen river may well be feasible if the river is wide enough to allow them to tack and move with the wind. Canals, though, are much narrower, and this will severely constrain their freedom of movement. It may be possible to use wind-propelled ice boats on canals if the wind is blowing the right way, but I'm not sure it's practicable. If I were captaining one, I really wouldn't want to be moving too quickly in such a confined space; if you hit the bank at any significant speed, it's liable to "convert the kinetic energy of the vehicle to the kinetic energies of its separated parts", as my old maths teacher put it. Towing them, however, ought to be well possible provided the logistics of feeding and resting the towing beasts can be arranged – which might also be a problem under the current circumstances.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Jun 11, 2015 4:32 am

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Hi Isaac Newton,

Thanks for the data and link.

Taking out Nybar means eliminating the best of Wyrshym's army without the rest having a clue how it was done, demoralizing those who know; 'because if those guys didn't have a chance, we're toast' will spread no matter what the command [and inquisition] orders kept quiet.

The garrison at Esthyr's Abbey of 4500 men requires some 33.75 tons of food per 5day, or 5 dragon wagon loads every 20 days, plus at least the same if not double or triple that number of dragons for coal or fuel wood [from the description they were running out of local trees quickly], plus cooking oil, fodder [up to ~20 wagon loads for the 3 remaining cavalry regiments], ammunition and clothing etc for roughly up around 44 dragon wagon loads every 4 5days, and BGV may have scheduled his attack just after the last arrival and departure; or possibly before departure, depending on your judgement of when is best.

L


isaac_newton wrote:Thinking about the next stage and security...

COGA Preskyt at Esthyr’s Abbey [surrounded]
Nybar at Fairkyn about 500 miles away, but intervening towns evacuated.

I guess that BGV would really, really like to get at Nybar and his men and ideally without Nybar being aware of his coming.

Is that likely or just a wild dream?

I guess that none of the troops at the Abbey will get out, but what about:
- those carrier things [name escapes me]
- incoming COGA food transports
- troops from EA out on patrol?
- semaphore [would this still be in operation, given the man power needs?]

Incidentally, I went to St Albans last weekend. There is an old medieval tower there in the town. During the Napoleonic Wars that was used as a support for a semaphore in part of a chain that ran from the Admiralty in London to Great Yarmouth on the east coast, and also in the opposite direction to Portsmouth and then the western chanel ports.

The pictures of the semaphore looked just like what I had imagined the Safehold system looked like [system invented by a Rev George Murray].

There were some interesting points, esp relevant to the current story:
- tower was about 60-70 foot high
- next tower in chain was right on the horizon. It required the use of good telescopes.
- average seperation was about 11 miles
- downtime due weather was about 100days/year
- had a team of 5 [including a half pay officer]
- a simple message could run the entire length in about 15 minutes

FYI here is a link, more about the southern arm of the chain
http://www.portsdown-tunnels.org.uk/anc ... ph_p1.html

Doing the numbers, a chain from SE to Fairkyn would need about 40-50 towers [500/10], with a absolute minimum staff of 250 men - no replacements/no security, more likely 3-400, maybe more.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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