The worst case Scenario! Manticore has Fallen!

Somtaaw wrote:
And now we have the basis for an 'alternate' timeline mini-series. All the 'what-ifs' of the Honorverse, bundled into mini-books.


-8th Fleet either wasn't there for the Battle of Manticore, or was the first to punch through and gets wrecked instead of 3rd Fleet.
-Filareta successfully completed Operation Raging Justice and occupies Manticore

What other what-if mini stories can we think up, to add to the list

We do need these to be at least mildly possible, so Filareta occupying Manticore doesn't work. The first one, however...oh my. So many interesting possibilities.

However, here's some...
-Honor dies while on her middy cruise
-Roger III Winton decides he doesn't want to go grav-boarding that day
-Steadholder Mueller's plot gets found out before it can even get off the ground
-Thomas Theisman dies taking out Oscar Saint-Just and the Committee of Public Safety
-Eloise Pritchart gets purged with the rest of the Aprilists
-Cordelia Ransom has an off day and decides to just shoot Honor

Tom wrote:
We do need these to be at least mildly possible, so Filareta occupying Manticore doesn't work. The first one, however...oh my. So many interesting possibilities.

However, here's some...
-Honor dies while on her middy cruise
-Roger III Winton decides he doesn't want to go grav-boarding that day
-Steadholder Mueller's plot gets found out before it can even get off the ground
-Thomas Theisman dies taking out Oscar Saint-Just and the Committee of Public Safety
-Eloise Pritchart gets purged with the rest of the Aprilists
-Cordelia Ransom has an off day and decides to just shoot Honor

Well part of Filareta's orders did include holding the orbitals and ORDERING Manticore to stand down. As a matter of fact, his written orders specified to get into orbit of Manticore itself, he had some thoughts of changing his own orders, to go for Sphinx instead, while deciding on his approach method (slow and testing the water with Sphinx, or fast and hard for Manticore)

And Mueller's plot succeeds (the original one in regards to Sky Domes), and Honor gets impeached.

munroburton wrote:That assumes the RMN doesn't pull a Higgins and nukes everything before they lose the system. And takes Admiralty House and Saganami Island out with kinetic impactors.

Sure, a multi-megaton KE in the middle of the capital. Are you trying to JUSTIFY the SL taking over? Because killing a few million people with a WMD is about as good as it gets.

You could make it better with Manticore conducting mass executions of people who might know militarily useful information, but it still won't help. Because if they win they have a lot of some what broken RMN ships to look at.

kzt wrote:

munroburton wrote:That assumes the RMN doesn't pull a Higgins and nukes everything before they lose the system. And takes Admiralty House and Saganami Island out with kinetic impactors.

Sure, a multi-megaton KE in the middle of the capital. Are you trying to JUSTIFY the SL taking over? Because killing a few million people with a WMD is about as good as it gets.

You could make it better with Manticore conducting mass executions of people who might know militarily useful information, but it still won't help. Because if they win they have a lot of some what broken RMN ships to look at.

They can precision strike the Admiralty House and Sag.Island without going to multi-MT KEW strikes. Remember that Terekhov used the Damocles which has a maximum payload of 1MT. And anything as small as a DD can pop one of those things out of a CM tube right before it runs.

the Gendarmerie would go for full boot multi-megaton KEWs, but that's due to the majority being little more than brutes who think holding a gun makes them dangerous.

Iirc, it's a 500 story building. So you have a mix of very large and heavy pieces of the ceramacrete building falling from about a mile and a half high, and smaller pieces streaking out at hypersonic speed. What could possibly go wrong?

kzt wrote:

munroburton wrote:That assumes the RMN doesn't pull a Higgins and nukes everything before they lose the system. And takes Admiralty House and Saganami Island out with kinetic impactors.

Sure, a multi-megaton KE in the middle of the capital. Are you trying to JUSTIFY the SL taking over? Because killing a few million people with a WMD is about as good as it gets.

You could make it better with Manticore conducting mass executions of people who might know militarily useful information, but it still won't help. Because if they win they have a lot of some what broken RMN ships to look at.

Don't use megaton settings, then. Kinetic impactors can be slowed to kiloton ranges.

They also have plenty of time to evacuate those areas in the event of a victorious enemy fleet halfway out to the hyper limit. Time enough to carry out the demolitions in a more controlled manner as well.

The RMN has good procedures on keeping classified technology out of enemy hands. The PRN/RHN never got much from the few pieces and ships they did sweep up. Granted, they didn't get to rake through an annihilated Home Fleet...

kzt wrote:Iirc, it's a 500 story building. So you have a mix of very large and heavy pieces of the ceramacrete building falling from about a mile and a half high, and smaller pieces streaking out at hypersonic speed. What could possibly go wrong?

Backing up a step, yeah it's crazy to take out the Admiralty House and Saganami Island building; even if Manticore is being occupied. Who cares if an occupier has control of the physical structure; I'd think you really care about denying the technical, operational, and intelligence data.

That stuff can be destroyed using much more precisely targeted destruction and computer wipes.

Tom wrote:

Somtaaw wrote:

-Roger III Winton decides he doesn't want to go grav-boarding that day

I think you're doing Roger III a grave diservice by claiming his survival would lead to Manticore's downfall. Elizabeth is a great Queen but Roger was far from a horrible ruler.

Roguevictory wrote:I think you're doing Roger III a grave diservice by claiming his survival would lead to Manticore's downfall. Elizabeth is a great Queen but Roger was far from a horrible ruler.

Agreed, He was assassinated because of his anti-Haven stance. If he's left in power he just has more time to convince people he's right. Elizabeth, on the other hand, had a more difficult time of that because many in Parliament not in the know assumed she just had some crazy vendetta against Haven. They didn't take her animosity seriously as a result. If Roger III survives Haven would fall apart decades sooner IMO.

Quinlan73 wrote:

Roguevictory wrote:I think you're doing Roger III a grave diservice by claiming his survival would lead to Manticore's downfall. Elizabeth is a great Queen but Roger was far from a horrible ruler.

Agreed, He was assassinated because of his anti-Haven stance. If he's left in power he just has more time to convince people he's right. Elizabeth, on the other hand, had a more difficult time of that because many in Parliament not in the know assumed she just had some crazy vendetta against Haven. They didn't take her animosity seriously as a result. If Roger III survives Haven would fall apart decades sooner IMO.

Maybe. But Roger did want to take the risky move of moving Manticoran fleet units into Trevor's Star to deter the Peeps from taking it.

If it worked it puts Manticore in a better position, they get a strong allied system to help build up their fleets, and with control of all the Junction termini they don't have to sink as much of their resources into Junction fortifications.

On the other hand, if it precipitates the war 17 years early then Project Gram will be decades from producing results. And it's unclear if Pierre would be positioned for his coupe. So you'd have a smaller Manticoran fleet (Roger's build-up hasn't had as much time), without their full Alliance providing defensive depth, against a Peep fleet that still outnumbers them and won't be wracked with self-inflicted wounds.


Roger is a good monarch, but that particular plan does have a chance of starting the war before Manticore is in a position to survive it.