HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)

EdThomas wrote:At this point we don't know where BGV's main body is. Is it outlandish to think it might be 20-30 miles ( a day's march?) behind, moving on the high road in what is essentially an administrative movement? They would be setting up pow camps, semaphore stations and convoy stopping points along the road preparing it to be their main suppply route to Fairkyn at a minimum and possibly all the way to Guarnak.

We're told everything west of Esthyr's Abbey has been evacuated to Fairkyn and further west. Other than semaphore station crews along the high road and possibly a small detachment at St Zhana the path west to Fairkyn should just be a long administrative movement at best possible speed. Rotating Scout/sniper units will be used to take semaphore stations ahead of the column with as little damage as possible and to provide advance security.

Once we get past Esthyr's Abbey it may be a long time before we hear from BGV again. Thoughts on how this might go otherwise?

justdave wrote:

Dutch46 wrote:Then there is the fact that he will have a ready made containment in the portion of the village that remains intact after the attack. As to the number of guards required, circumstances allow for a minimum number. Any prisoner that is foolish enough to try to walk out is welcome to do so but only with the clothes on his back.

I agree, Esthyr’s Abbey will make an adequate POW camp and need a minimal guard force since there's no need to man the camp 'walls'

cirret wrote:I don't see the problems everybody gets with the prisoners and feeding them compared to feeding the people in the internation camps. the abby is relativaly close to allyntyn wich i think is te main supply base. Logistics start to hurt signicanty if they have a long way to go, like to the internation camps.

My guess is that the abby and village wil become a major forward supply base after they capture it. That means alot of emtpty vihicles moving back empty to allyntyn.
Put the prisoners in nominal winter gear so there dead if they trie to escape but don't freeze to dead while they beeing moved. And after a while there al gone.

You move over (or leave) a battlelion riffleman for security and they can watch the prisoners while there still there.

n7axw wrote:Do we have any textev to suggest that the second wave has moved out of Allyntyn? I don't remember any..


Don

EdThomas wrote:

n7axw wrote:Do we have any textev to suggest that the second wave has moved out of Allyntyn? I don't remember any..


Don

hi Don,
I don't recall any and must admit to engaging in some not so wild speculation that he's not going to leave the rest of the Corp sitting in Allyntyn while he marches on with his 2 brigades to Fairkyn.
The High Roads to and from Allyntyn are going to be his Main Supply Route until gets to Fairkyn at a minimum. The MSR has to be built which means depots at about a days march apart, repair facilities, corrals for the caribou, snow dragons and High Hallows etc, etc.
Even though he knows he's not going to run into anything significant , he has to make like he thinks he might so he can't leave his main body/reserve too far behind. I picked a day's march. USMA74 and/or Lyonheart can probably tell us how this kind of movement is done in real life (hint, hint )
MSR depots would probably also include secure detention facilities to allow pows to be moved to permanet camps. It would make sense to build such a facility right there at the Abbey.
Troop movement along the MSR might utilize large sleds or wagons to carry two-legged items to decrease transit times.

n7axw wrote:

EdThomas wrote:
hi Don,
I don't recall any and must admit to engaging in some not so wild speculation that he's not going to leave the rest of the Corp sitting in Allyntyn while he marches on with his 2 brigades to Fairkyn.
The High Roads to and from Allyntyn are going to be his Main Supply Route until gets to Fairkyn at a minimum. The MSR has to be built which means depots at about a days march apart, repair facilities, corrals for the caribou, snow dragons and High Hallows etc, etc.
Even though he knows he's not going to run into anything significant , he has to make like he thinks he might so he can't leave his main body/reserve too far behind. I picked a day's march. USMA74 and/or Lyonheart can probably tell us how this kind of movement is done in real life (hint, hint )
MSR depots would probably also include secure detention facilities to allow pows to be moved to permanet camps. It would make sense to build such a facility right there at the Abbey.
Troop movement along the MSR might utilize large sleds or wagons to carry two-legged items to decrease transit times.

There is good sense to a facility for POWs at Esthyr's Abbey right now. But it probably would be better to transport them somewhere where winter wouldn't make their mantainence so challenging and supply a bit more readily available.

But I agree that it would make sense to move both BGV's reinforcements and the supply head forward. It's roughly 500 miles to Fairkyn and the canal probably won't be open by the time he gets there, at least if he makes his schedule to be knocking on the door at knocking on the door at Guernak by spring thaw. After all, Guenack is another 500 miles minimum.

It all looks pretty stretched out to me. It wouldn't be surprising if BGV had to move the supply head forward yet again before he reaches Fairkyn.

Don

Peter2 wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

It's still March, and the first reinforcements won't arrive until May at best, so I think he still has plenty of time to get most of the way to Guarnak, RFC willing.

There's been speculation about Wyrshym retreating to Five Forks before being compelled to surrender, and RFC could very well have set that up quite intentionally.

We don't know where exactly Esthyr's Abbey is in the Northland Gap, but if its in the middle of the gap Fairkyn is another 500 miles west, with just over 500 more to Guarnak; and if BGV stuck to the road most of the way to the Abbey, he's traveled around 200 miles so far.

Due to the imprecision of the dates we have so far, we don't have an daily average to plot how long it may take to reach Fairkyn, which I don't think is an accident on RFC's part.

If, as I've speculated before, ice racers from Ranshair, massing up to 100 tons or more like those on the Hudson ~120 years ago, could resupply BGV via the Ice Ash river or its Kalgaran east fork, replenishing him for a quicker lunge at Fairkyn, as well as a surprise far faster drive down the frozen Ice Ash canal than Wyrshym realizes is possible, because he's not familiar with the Chisholmian sport of ice racing where sustained speeds of 30 mph are common.

If the moon is then amenable for after dark navigation [the annual Hudson ice races were 24 hours straight through the night etc], BGV might then reach the Guarnak-Sylmahn in only a day or two [or 3-4], and Wyrshym is thus toast.

Given my record of past predictions that's not going to happen, but sometimes you get closer than others.

If only half of Wyrshym's army is trapped and he's forced to fight a delaying action as he retreats up the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal, where he loses his rear guard in almost every engagement, he might not have much left when he reaches Five forks anyway, and his anticipated reinforcements have been delayed by the weather and/or other inner circle or allied operations.

L

Ice boats on a frozen river may well be feasible if the river is wide enough to allow them to tack and move with the wind. Canals, though, are much narrower, and this will severely constrain their freedom of movement. It may be possible to use wind-propelled ice boats on canals if the wind is blowing the right way, but I'm not sure it's practicable. If I were captaining one, I really wouldn't want to be moving too quickly in such a confined space; if you hit the bank at any significant speed, it's liable to "convert the kinetic energy of the vehicle to the kinetic energies of its separated parts", as my old maths teacher put it. Towing them, however, ought to be well possible provided the logistics of feeding and resting the towing beasts can be arranged – which might also be a problem under the current circumstances.

isaac_newton wrote:Thinking about the next stage and security...

COGA Preskyt at Esthyr’s Abbey [surrounded]
Nybar at Fairkyn about 500 miles away, but intervening towns evacuated.

I guess that BGV would really, really like to get at Nybar and his men and ideally without Nybar being aware of his coming.

Is that likely or just a wild dream?

I guess that none of the troops at the Abbey will get out, but what about:
- those carrier things [name escapes me]
- incoming COGA food transports
- troops from EA out on patrol?
- semaphore [would this still be in operation, given the man power needs?]

Incidentally, I went to St Albans last weekend. There is an old medieval tower there in the town. During the Napoleonic Wars that was used as a support for a semaphore in part of a chain that ran from the Admiralty in London to Great Yarmouth on the east coast, and also in the opposite direction to Portsmouth and then the western chanel ports.

The pictures of the semaphore looked just like what I had imagined the Safehold system looked like [system invented by a Rev George Murray].

There were some interesting points, esp relevant to the current story:
- tower was about 60-70 foot high
- next tower in chain was right on the horizon. It required the use of good telescopes.
- average seperation was about 11 miles
- downtime due weather was about 100days/year
- had a team of 5 [including a half pay officer]
- a simple message could run the entire length in about 15 minutes

FYI here is a link, more about the southern arm of the chain
http://www.portsdown-tunnels.org.uk/anc ... ph_p1.html

Doing the numbers, a chain from SE to Fairkyn would need about 40-50 towers [500/10], with a absolute minimum staff of 250 men - no replacements/no security, more likely 3-400, maybe more.