Being Gbaba

n7axw wrote:Then too, consider that from the time humanity became aware of the threat the Gbabba posed, the TF had about 10 years to prepare to meet it. Yet, IIRC, it took the Gbaba about 40 years to reduce the TF. This implies that the Gbabba did not find wiping the Federation a cake walk. This in turn suggests that the Gbabba's limits are such that with more time and stronger preparation, the result can be in humanity's favor next round.

I do agree that humanity can defeat the Gbaba if given enough time to prepare and good enough technology. But I think you should take another look at the 43 years of the war before drawing conclusions from it.

In one of the posts I found in my search (I can pull it out if you want), David noted that for the first 20 years of the war, many people on Earth (but not everyone) could convince themselves that they could defeat the Gbaba. That suggests that, in reality, the Federation was trouble right from the beginning, though they did have some early successes.

For the first 20 years or so, the Federation was only fighting the local forces which happened to be ready. Then much bigger forces started arriving. For the last ten years or so (if I recall correctly), Earth was essentially under siege.

Earth, of course, was by far the best defended and best supplied human planet. But I suspect the Gbaba were not trying that hard to invade Earth for most of that time. When the attacked Crestwell, they used an enormous force--I don't have the book handy, but it was something ridiculous like 100 to 1 force ratio. I think the Gbaba strongly prefer huge force ratios like that. So the reason the Earth lasted for 10 years could be because they were waiting to gather sufficient force to apply 100 to 1 odds before attacking Earth.

That could be taken as evidence that it took 10 years for some ships to arrive at Earth. Or more if they started the gathering earlier in the war. Which could mean a large (but not necessarily galactic) empire.

Thanks, SWM, for that bunch of RFC snips. It's great to have no-Gbaba-exploration authoritatively confirmed - hopefully that puts a stake through the heart of that notion. I was surprised it wasn't emissions that did it for revealing humanity's presence: I knew being lost in the background was an issue but had no way to figure out how far out it'd take to conceal them conclusively, and didn't really take seriously any competing notion of the source of contact.

That bit about humanity coming across multiple civilizations the Gbaba... Gbaba'ed was a surprise. One would not have expected many to pop up in an area in a "short" period of time on the scale of the evolution of intelligent life in a small part of the galaxy. I have to wonder: has the whole rest of the galaxy been Gbaba'ed, do they have neighbors with which they (have to?) practice co-existence elsewhere, are they still fighting or searching for other civilizations they've met, or is this small area of the galaxy special somehow with intelligent life popping up in it far more frequently than elsewhere? (To be promptly Gbaba'ed, in an obscene whack-a-mole game.)

None of those four seem independently plausible, but it's hard to see an alternative if there have been that many civilizations struck down by the Gbaba near Earth, caught between the time where they would leave enough for archaeologists to find (Iron Age at the earliest, I'd guess, for archaeologists without vast amounts of time to go looking, and given Gbaba destructiveness, and able to beat the Gbaba at the latest - a mere 3-5,000 years or so).

Anyway, to specifics:

SWM wrote:I do agree that humanity can defeat the Gbaba if given enough time to prepare and good enough technology. But I think you should take another look at the 43 years of the war before drawing conclusions from it.

In one of the posts I found in my search (I can pull it out if you want), David noted that for the first 20 years of the war, many people on Earth (but not everyone) could convince themselves that they could defeat the Gbaba. That suggests that, in reality, the Federation was trouble right from the beginning, though they did have some early successes.

For the first 20 years or so, the Federation was only fighting the local forces which happened to be ready. Then much bigger forces started arriving. For the last ten years or so (if I recall correctly), Earth was essentially under siege.

20 years to fully mobilize and get on the scene... One horrific possibility is that those were ready forces that took 20 years to travel, given stupendous distances covered by the Gbaba. That may mean that most of the galaxy IS Gbaba space. Still, if that's the case, finding a region for Safehold to be safe may have taken more luck than can be counted on. More likely - certainly more hopefully - the delay represents mainly reactivating reserve units and/or new builds, and raising and training crews for them (or whatever Gbaba equivalent applies, if "raising" or "training" aren't quite apt). For that matter, they may even have had to build the yards to build the ships, if it took that long.

Earth, of course, was by far the best defended and best supplied human planet. But I suspect the Gbaba were not trying that hard to invade Earth for most of that time. When the attacked Crestwell, they used an enormous force--I don't have the book handy, but it was something ridiculous like 100 to 1 force ratio. I think the Gbaba strongly prefer huge force ratios like that. So the reason the Earth lasted for 10 years could be because they were waiting to gather sufficient force to apply 100 to 1 odds before attacking Earth.

And if could be that they took awhile after discovery to mount the attack on Crestwell, even when it and the first few attacks thereafter were essentially recon in force missions by Gbaba standards.

That could be taken as evidence that it took 10 years for some ships to arrive at Earth. Or more if they started the gathering earlier in the war. Which could mean a large (but not necessarily galactic) empire.

It could also mean that the Gbaba don't value time the way we do, following Napoleon (at least). They're content to take their time to do things in massive numbers, to surround the target thoroughly to prevent escapes, and grind it down through attrition with those massive numbers. If they are not normally inclined to chase things down, going far out of their way to avoid having to do so makes sense. If they had to choose between an intense, 5 year hot war followed by 100-200 years of bughunting, or a 40 year war that was slow but utterly decisive, they may plausibly prefer the latter. It's probably not what we would choose, but we're not Gbaba.

SWM wrote:

n7axw wrote:Then too, consider that from the time humanity became aware of the threat the Gbabba posed, the TF had about 10 years to prepare to meet it. Yet, IIRC, it took the Gbaba about 40 years to reduce the TF. This implies that the Gbabba did not find wiping the Federation a cake walk. This in turn suggests that the Gbabba's limits are such that with more time and stronger preparation, the result can be in humanity's favor next round.

I do agree that humanity can defeat the Gbaba if given enough time to prepare and good enough technology. But I think you should take another look at the 43 years of the war before drawing conclusions from it.

In one of the posts I found in my search (I can pull it out if you want), David noted that for the first 20 years of the war, many people on Earth (but not everyone) could convince themselves that they could defeat the Gbaba. That suggests that, in reality, the Federation was trouble right from the beginning, though they did have some early successes.

For the first 20 years or so, the Federation was only fighting the local forces which happened to be ready. Then much bigger forces started arriving. For the last ten years or so (if I recall correctly), Earth was essentially under siege.

Earth, of course, was by far the best defended and best supplied human planet. But I suspect the Gbaba were not trying that hard to invade Earth for most of that time. When the attacked Crestwell, they used an enormous force--I don't have the book handy, but it was something ridiculous like 100 to 1 force ratio. I think the Gbaba strongly prefer huge force ratios like that. So the reason the Earth lasted for 10 years could be because they were waiting to gather sufficient force to apply 100 to 1 odds before attacking Earth.

That could be taken as evidence that it took 10 years for some ships to arrive at Earth. Or more if they started the gathering earlier in the war. Which could mean a large (but not necessarily galactic) empire.

Hi SWM,

I don't think that anything in your post contradicts mine. My point was that the fact that it took them 40 years implies that they didn't find it easy. I'll stand with that.

With reference to your last paragraph, yes, I suppose you would have to say that it could have taken 10 years to gather their fleet. But some things sound a bit more probable than others and this one strikes me as being on the less probable side.

But if you are right, it would reinforce my point. Having warships 10 years in transit would suggest disruption of normal defensive strategies because there was a challenge that local sector forces couldn't handle making it necessary to draw in forces from other sectors with the possible risk of exposure to attack by enemies in other sectors. Warships in transit are off the table until they arrive at where they are going.

The bottom line here is that humanity proved a challenge that couldn't be brushed off like a fly. Resourses had to be marshalled and utilized. It took major effort by the Gbaba. That in turn suggests that with more time to prepare and build, humanity might have won the first time.

All of this implies limits. We just don't know where the limits are. That is the point I was making.

Don

n7axw wrote:Hi SWM,

I don't think that anything in your post contradicts mine. My point was that the fact that it took them 40 years implies that they didn't find it easy. I'll stand with that.

With reference to your last paragraph, yes, I suppose you would have to say that it could have taken 10 years to gather their fleet. But some things sound a bit more probable than others and this one strikes me as being on the less probable side.

But if you are right, it would reinforce my point. Having warships 10 years in transit would suggest disruption of normal defensive strategies because there was a challenge that local sector forces couldn't handle making it necessary to draw in forces from other sectors with the possible risk of exposure to attack by enemies in other sectors. Warships in transit are off the table until they arrive at where they are going.

The bottom line here is that humanity proved a challenge that couldn't be brushed off like a fly. Resourses had to be marshalled and utilized. It took major effort by the Gbaba. That in turn suggests that with more time to prepare and build, humanity might have won the first time.

All of this implies limits. We just don't know where the limits are. That is the point I was making.

Don

Agreed on all counts.

SWM wrote:

n7axw wrote:Hi SWM,

I don't think that anything in your post contradicts mine. My point was that the fact that it took them 40 years implies that they didn't find it easy. I'll stand with that.

With reference to your last paragraph, yes, I suppose you would have to say that it could have taken 10 years to gather their fleet. But some things sound a bit more probable than others and this one strikes me as being on the less probable side.

But if you are right, it would reinforce my point. Having warships 10 years in transit would suggest disruption of normal defensive strategies because there was a challenge that local sector forces couldn't handle making it necessary to draw in forces from other sectors with the possible risk of exposure to attack by enemies in other sectors. Warships in transit are off the table until they arrive at where they are going.

The bottom line here is that humanity proved a challenge that couldn't be brushed off like a fly. Resourses had to be marshalled and utilized. It took major effort by the Gbaba. That in turn suggests that with more time to prepare and build, humanity might have won the first time.

All of this implies limits. We just don't know where the limits are. That is the point I was making.

Don

Agreed on all counts.

I agree with what you are discussing but with several caveats:

1) Transit time for communications - I don't remember the Federation having FTL com capability or not, or whether the Gaba have it. But without FTL Comms, if it takes 10 years for Gaba fleets to appear, 4-5 would have been for a dispatch ship to get to said fleet's region. 1-2 could have been to call in dispersed assets, and 4-5 for the Fleet to arrive.

We're still talking about bringing in fleet assets from a great distance, but it defines a much smaller sphere of volume - in the example above, the Gaba empire would be ~10% the volume of the original example

2) Production capabilities. It was said the new Gaba ships were identical to 2000 year old Gaba ships - which means there is a current production line in operation. Another conclusion to the original premise of remote fleets is that instead of just calling in remote fleets, the Gaba was constructing new fleets to bolster their forces - perhaps also increasing their construction capability to compensate.

If so, the initial fighting up to Earth took up much of the Gaba's original strength, with first their local fleets, then remote fleets getting worn down. The last 10 years or so may have been spent slowly building up fresh ships to the 100:1 ratio they prefer, meaning they eventually could out-build the loss rate taken sparing with Earth's defenses.

This indicates a smaller original Gaba fleet than the original premise, but bodes less well for the next encounter, as the Gaba would have rebuilt their original fleet, and possibly also increased it's size to deal with another TF it may encounter. In addition, if they increased construction assets, the next fight with the Gaba could see fleets being replenished much more rapidly then seen in the original war.

Theemile wrote:
1) Transit time for communications - I don't remember the Federation having FTL com capability or not, or whether the Gaba have it. But without FTL Comms, if it takes 10 years for Gaba fleets to appear, 4-5 would have been for a dispatch ship to get to said fleet's region. 1-2 could have been to call in dispersed assets, and 4-5 for the Fleet to arrive.

We're still talking about bringing in fleet assets from a great distance, but it defines a much smaller sphere of volume - in the example above, the Gaba empire would be ~10% the volume of the original example

The TF had a (planet-based) FTL communication system called a "hypercom" which was something too expensive to build in newer colonies like Crestwell but which existed on bigger colony worlds

Sounour wrote:

Theemile wrote:
1) Transit time for communications - I don't remember the Federation having FTL com capability or not, or whether the Gaba have it. But without FTL Comms, if it takes 10 years for Gaba fleets to appear, 4-5 would have been for a dispatch ship to get to said fleet's region. 1-2 could have been to call in dispersed assets, and 4-5 for the Fleet to arrive.

We're still talking about bringing in fleet assets from a great distance, but it defines a much smaller sphere of volume - in the example above, the Gaba empire would be ~10% the volume of the original example

The TF had a (planet-based) FTL communication system called a "hypercom" which was something too expensive to build in newer colonies like Crestwell but which existed on bigger colony worlds

Thx, forgot about that - ok - #1 is down, assuming the Gaba had the Hypercom.

Theemile wrote:
I agree with what you are discussing but with several caveats:

1) Transit time for communications - I don't remember the Federation having FTL com capability or not, or whether the Gaba have it. But without FTL Comms, if it takes 10 years for Gaba fleets to appear, 4-5 would have been for a dispatch ship to get to said fleet's region. 1-2 could have been to call in dispersed assets, and 4-5 for the Fleet to arrive.

We're still talking about bringing in fleet assets from a great distance, but it defines a much smaller sphere of volume - in the example above, the Gaba empire would be ~10% the volume of the original example

2) Production capabilities. It was said the new Gaba ships were identical to 2000 year old Gaba ships - which means there is a current production line in operation. Another conclusion to the original premise of remote fleets is that instead of just calling in remote fleets, the Gaba was constructing new fleets to bolster their forces - perhaps also increasing their construction capability to compensate.

If so, the initial fighting up to Earth took up much of the Gaba's original strength, with first their local fleets, then remote fleets getting worn down. The last 10 years or so may have been spent slowly building up fresh ships to the 100:1 ratio they prefer, meaning they eventually could out-build the loss rate taken sparing with Earth's defenses.

This indicates a smaller original Gaba fleet than the original premise, but bodes less well for the next encounter, as the Gaba would have rebuilt their original fleet, and possibly also increased it's size to deal with another TF it may encounter. In addition, if they increased construction assets, the next fight with the Gaba could see fleets being replenished much more rapidly then seen in the original war.

Rather than summoning fleets from distant sectors, I think it's far more likely that the Gbaba summoned a large reserve along with stepping up their production of warships. That makes more sense than the idea of removing fleets from sectors that might make them vulnerable to attack from other enemies.

Don

JeffEngel wrote:That bit about humanity coming across multiple civilizations the Gbaba... Gbaba'ed was a surprise.

I don't think it necessarily says that. Could be multiple discoveries of sites colonized by one species... humanity got to 14 "major" colonies before they got noticed.

One would not have expected many to pop up in an area in a "short" period of time on the scale of the evolution of intelligent life in a small part of the galaxy. I have to wonder: has the whole rest of the galaxy been Gbaba'ed, do they have neighbors with which they (have to?) practice co-existence elsewhere, are they still fighting or searching for other civilizations they've met, or is this small area of the galaxy special somehow with intelligent life popping up in it far more frequently than elsewhere? (To be promptly Gbaba'ed, in an obscene whack-a-mole game.)

My take is that the Gbaba haven't been doing this very long on a cosmic time scale. Their ship design hasn't changed for 2,000 years... but maybe they only started into maniac genocidal mode, say, 5.000 years ago.

Sooner or later they'll meet someone they can't beat and get crushed.

JeffEngel wrote: That may mean that most of the galaxy IS Gbaba space. Still, if that's the case, finding a region for Safehold to be safe may have taken more luck than can be counted on.

Yeah, they seemed quite certain that Safehold was not only safe, but way way way outside Gbaba space. That's why I think they probably had a pretty clear idea of what the Gbaba controlled, and given the "we could have beaten them if..." comments, it probably was pretty small on the galactic scale - thousands of planets maybe, but not millions.