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HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)

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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by wingfield   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:12 am

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lyonheart wrote:Hi Isaac Newton,

Very good point!

Because Safehold is much colder than earth and the fact the Northland Gap is around 54 degrees north, I expect the thaw will be well into April, probably around the middle if not nearer the end of the month depending on the weather this year, which is why the AoG didn't march out last year until May when the roads were clear and dry.

Imagine Clyntahn's reaction to the weather delaying all the new weapons and reinforcements a critical 5day or two, or three. ;) 8-)

Are the weather gods/or archangels, against the jihad? :lol:

One reason I like using the canal for ice boats is that the canal walls would shield much of the bottom ice from the sun more than that ice directly exposed on the land round about, being at the right south west angle [~45 degrees?] only in the late afternoon, while also sheltering the colder air lingering in the bottom of the canal, besides the still freezing night air that would refreeze the ice quickly for use the rest of the night, probably resurfacing it and keeping it a flatter, smoother surface than it otherwise might be.



The only qualitative reference to Safehold's axial tilt is here: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=2198#p43133

The textev uses only the phrase "Its axial tilt was a bit more pronounced" and the poster speculates that this is in the range of 25 to 30 degrees.

OK, with our own axial tilt of 23.5 degrees, we have tropics covering 47 degrees (tropic to tropic) and arctic/antarctic zones of 23.5 degrees each. The temperate zones are therefore each 43 degrees "across".

At a 25 degree axial tilt, the temperate zone drops to 40 degrees across and this falls to 30 degrees with a 30 degree tilt. Now that is a wide tropical belt and a narrow temperate zone. 54 degrees North would be VERY cold in winter.

A 25 degree tilt is enough to make 54 degrees North still pretty cold but would leave the tropics at a more manageable size, given all of the observations RFC has made in the text about distances and climates in some of the "well-trodden" locations.

Assuming then that 25 degrees is about right, the maximum elevation of the sun at midday at 54 degrees North latitude would range from 36 degrees at the Equinox to 11 degrees at the Winter Solstice.

These figures would be even more extreme with a 30 degree tilt.

The sun will never be at more than a low elevation in the late afternoon, even at the Equinox, which is when the thaw is anticipated. I know that, by 45 degrees, you meant azimuth rather than altitude but we need to consider where the sun is in the sky as well as its compass bearing.

On that basis, the canal beds will be nice and gloomy/cold and perfect for ice boats. Only when the sun is very low in the south-west (actually nearer to west just before the Equinox) would there be any illumination (if the canal directions are favourable, of course) but very little warmth.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by tootall   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:09 am

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[quote="Dutch46"]There won't be any atrocities and I classify driving POWs out into the countryside as an atrocity.

I agree with that.

And I think what I wrote was about driving soldiers out of their holes and into the wild. (NOT POWs- but armed soldiers.)
And I didn't say "no quarter". I think I said that there would be little "mercy".
And when I tried to say that I believed his offensive would suffer if he had 1000s of POWs -I was referring to feeding them.
He does mention that he can't feed the folks in the camps. So why would we think he has food to spare for the enemy soldiers?
There has been lots of text about not wanting to kill soldiers who can't fight back-or who are unlucky enough to be fighting on the wrong side. I get that.
And in Northern Siddermark, the Inquisition has visited terror upon thousands and thousands and thousands of men- women- and children.
(Think ISIS)
(Think Pol Pot and Hitler)
And who, pray tell, is the armed fist of the Inquisition?
That would be the Army of God.

I commend to your attention-the author's note (afterword) from Flag in Exile. (A reference to the Oklahoma City bombing)
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:22 am

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tootall wrote:
Dutch46 wrote:There won't be any atrocities and I classify driving POWs out into the countryside as an atrocity.

I agree with that.

And I think what I wrote was about driving soldiers out of their holes and into the wild. (NOT POWs- but armed soldiers.)
And I didn't say "no quarter". I think I said that there would be little "mercy".
And when I tried to say that I believed his offensive would suffer if he had 1000s of POWs -I was referring to feeding them.
He does mention that he can't feed the folks in the camps. So why would we think he has food to spare for the enemy soldiers?
There has been lots of text about not wanting to kill soldiers who can't fight back-or who are unlucky enough to be fighting on the wrong side. I get that.
And in Northern Siddermark, the Inquisition has visited terror upon thousands and thousands and thousands of men- women- and children.
(Think ISIS)
(Think Pol Pot and Hitler)
And who, pray tell, is the armed fist of the Inquisition?
That would be the Army of God.

I commend to your attention-the author's note (afterword) from Flag in Exile. (A reference to the Oklahoma City bombing)


Of course BGV can have pipers play “The Pikes of Kolstyr" as his M97 mortars destroy all the available shelter. That would pretty much set the defenders to thinking run away or die. If the infantry only shoots at those that remain to defend their positions and allows those that flee unarmed to gain their freedom, God will sort the sheep from the goats.

That's the sort of brutal practicality I envision. Not sure that would classify as an atrocity, but that sort of decision would be hard to live with after the war concludes.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by evilauthor   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:24 am

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lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

It's still March, and the first reinforcements won't arrive until May at best, so I think he still has plenty of time to get most of the way to Guarnak, RFC willing. ;)

There's been speculation about Wyrshym retreating to Five Forks before being compelled to surrender, and RFC could very well have set that up quite intentionally. ;) 8-)

We don't know where exactly Esthyr's Abbey is in the Northland Gap, but if its in the middle of the gap Fairkyn is another 500 miles west, with just over 500 more to Guarnak; and if BGV stuck to the road most of the way to the Abbey, he's traveled around 200 miles so far.

Due to the imprecision of the dates we have so far, we don't have an daily average to plot how long it may take to reach Fairkyn, which I don't think is an accident on RFC's part. ;)

If, as I've speculated before, ice racers from Ranshair, massing up to 100 tons or more like those on the Hudson ~120 years ago, could resupply BGV via the Ice Ash river or its Kalgaran east fork, replenishing him for a quicker lunge at Fairkyn, as well as a surprise far faster drive down the frozen Ice Ash canal than Wyrshym realizes is possible, because he's not familiar with the Chisholmian sport of ice racing where sustained speeds of 30 mph are common. ;) 8-)

If the moon is then amenable for after dark navigation [the annual Hudson ice races were 24 hours straight through the night etc], BGV might then reach the Guarnak-Sylmahn in only a day or two [or 3-4], and Wyrshym is thus toast. 8-)

Given my record of past predictions that's not going to happen, but sometimes you get closer than others. ;)

If only half of Wyrshym's army is trapped and he's forced to fight a delaying action as he retreats up the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal, where he loses his rear guard in almost every engagement, he might not have much left when he reaches Five forks anyway, and his anticipated reinforcements have been delayed by the weather and/or other inner circle or allied operations.

L


Problem: If the Sping thaw at least hasn't hit yet by the time Green Valley hits Wyrsham's main body, then Wyrsham literally canNOT retreat. If he tries, his army will freeze/starve to death.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by lyonheart   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:38 am

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Hi Henry Brown,

Yes its heavier but still probably well under 900 pounds [~850?], but with a pole or two even the heavier parts can be carried by 2-4 men, while with wheels it can be pushed and/or pulled far more easily than even a 6-pounder that weighs more than twice as much.

Obviously different tactics will be needed.

Keep in mind its still a mortar weighing a third what a 12 pounder does but with 3-3.5 times the range, NTM its plunging fire has a ~40 yard lethal radius, far greater than any 12 pounder, be it canister or 4" rifle.

By the absence of a comparison, the 6" evidently still has a wider lethal radius, despite still using gunpowder but it may only be 45-50 yards.

Frankly half its range is more than enough to deal with the Go4 armies, who have no clue yet about indirect fire.

Such mobile deadly firepower means that with ASP teams keeping it current on targets it can overwhelm any enemy concentration long before its gets close to the nominal front, assuming the ICA ever lets the Go4 armies form for battle unless they're creating fire or 'battle cauldrons' to slaughter them in huge numbers.

While the 6" howitzer has the range to wreck Go4 armies up to 7000 yards away, its rate of fire is far too slow to seal the battlefield, NTM quickly respond to the chaos and confusion.

Once the M96 4.5" is available in battalion sized units [36-48 tubes minimum] overwhelming fire on relatively huge areas can be rained down upon the Go4 armies from out of their sight.

Do the math of how quickly 35-40 yard lethal radius shells could cover a square mile to get some idea of what's coming.

The Go4 armies are definitely toast. :D

L


Henry Brown wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:*quote="Henry Brown"*I'd say the new 4.5 inch mortar is going to be fairly important as the series continues. It is described as having 4000 yards extra range compared to the older 3 inch mortar. If I'm not mistaken, the old mortars could fire something like a mile to a mile and a half. So the new M97 mortars should have something like 3.5 to 4 miles of total range. If the ICA can work out a good system for forward fire control that is going to be a pretty substantial advantage on any battlefield. Or better yet, put the 4.5 mortars on high ground so they can direct their own fire.*quote*
It's got a lot of range and kick, but it won't be getting to all the places the M95 can or as easily. The M95, in pieces, is just barely man-portable among a squad of four. I doubt the plate of a M97 is something a human is carrying at all, so the piece (assembled or not) has to be carried on wheels or draft animal. (Or a draft animal dragging it on wheels.) It's an out-and-out field artillery piece. That's a fine niche to be filled, but it still leaves a role for M95's or an updated 3.5" mortar like it.


Agreed, the new M97 is not going to be nearly as portable as the smaller M95 mortar. But it has so much extra range that they will not need to move as much. In fact, your point about them being more like field artillery is a good one. My guess is that the ICA is going to continue to use the M95 as a close, mobile infantry support weapon and is going to evolve different tactics for the M97 to take advantage of the range.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by JeffEngel   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:44 am

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PeterZ wrote:
tootall wrote:And I think what I wrote was about driving soldiers out of their holes and into the wild. (NOT POWs- but armed soldiers.)
And I didn't say "no quarter". I think I said that there would be little "mercy".
And when I tried to say that I believed his offensive would suffer if he had 1000s of POWs -I was referring to feeding them.
He does mention that he can't feed the folks in the camps. So why would we think he has food to spare for the enemy soldiers?
There has been lots of text about not wanting to kill soldiers who can't fight back-or who are unlucky enough to be fighting on the wrong side. I get that.
And in Northern Siddermark, the Inquisition has visited terror upon thousands and thousands and thousands of men- women- and children.
(Think ISIS)
(Think Pol Pot and Hitler)
And who, pray tell, is the armed fist of the Inquisition?
That would be the Army of God.

I commend to your attention-the author's note (afterword) from Flag in Exile. (A reference to the Oklahoma City bombing)


Of course BGV can have pipers play “The Pikes of Kolstyr" as his M97 mortars destroy all the available shelter. That would pretty much set the defenders to thinking run away or die. If the infantry only shoots at those that remain to defend their positions and allows those that flee unarmed to gain their freedom, God will sort the sheep from the goats.

That's the sort of brutal practicality I envision. Not sure that would classify as an atrocity, but that sort of decision would be hard to live with after the war concludes.

It's a hard war. The best practical conduct in it is going to leave people with memories of what they had to do they're not going to care to revisit. Merlin's not alone in that. Good men and women are going to manage it at all not by insisting that every one of them had it coming (much as that's tempting even for people on this forum), but by cleaving as close to the best practical conduct as they can get and reminding themselves that nothing closer was practical.

Armed non-prisoners driven out into the cold won't be anyone they have to worry about feeding or guarding - or even guarding against, not for long. It's harsh, bitterly harsh, but this is war and that best practical conduct will still mean heaping buckets of bitterness.

Some of them may be wounded and unable to flee, or willing to put down their arms and surrender. Given what they have been made to believe about the "heretics", that's likely to be a small number still. Guarding those and taking them prisoner shouldn't be too difficult. Granted, given a choice, I'm sure BGV would rather save and feed a single camp inmate than 100 of those, but it's not a choice he's got.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by Peter2   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:58 am

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lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

It's still March, and the first reinforcements won't arrive until May at best, so I think he still has plenty of time to get most of the way to Guarnak, RFC willing. ;)

There's been speculation about Wyrshym retreating to Five Forks before being compelled to surrender, and RFC could very well have set that up quite intentionally. ;) 8-)

We don't know where exactly Esthyr's Abbey is in the Northland Gap, but if its in the middle of the gap Fairkyn is another 500 miles west, with just over 500 more to Guarnak; and if BGV stuck to the road most of the way to the Abbey, he's traveled around 200 miles so far.

Due to the imprecision of the dates we have so far, we don't have an daily average to plot how long it may take to reach Fairkyn, which I don't think is an accident on RFC's part. ;)

If, as I've speculated before, ice racers from Ranshair, massing up to 100 tons or more like those on the Hudson ~120 years ago, could resupply BGV via the Ice Ash river or its Kalgaran east fork, replenishing him for a quicker lunge at Fairkyn, as well as a surprise far faster drive down the frozen Ice Ash canal than Wyrshym realizes is possible, because he's not familiar with the Chisholmian sport of ice racing where sustained speeds of 30 mph are common. ;) 8-)

If the moon is then amenable for after dark navigation [the annual Hudson ice races were 24 hours straight through the night etc], BGV might then reach the Guarnak-Sylmahn in only a day or two [or 3-4], and Wyrshym is thus toast. 8-)

Given my record of past predictions that's not going to happen, but sometimes you get closer than others. ;)

If only half of Wyrshym's army is trapped and he's forced to fight a delaying action as he retreats up the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal, where he loses his rear guard in almost every engagement, he might not have much left when he reaches Five forks anyway, and his anticipated reinforcements have been delayed by the weather and/or other inner circle or allied operations.

L




Ice boats on a frozen river may well be feasible if the river is wide enough to allow them to tack and move with the wind. Canals, though, are much narrower, and this will severely constrain their freedom of movement. It may be possible to use wind-propelled ice boats on canals if the wind is blowing the right way, but I'm not sure it's practicable. If I were captaining one, I really wouldn't want to be moving too quickly in such a confined space; if you hit the bank at any significant speed, it's liable to "convert the kinetic energy of the vehicle to the kinetic energies of its separated parts", as my old maths teacher put it. Towing them, however, ought to be well possible provided the logistics of feeding and resting the towing beasts can be arranged – which might also be a problem under the current circumstances.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by EdThomas   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:43 pm

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At this point we don't know where BGV's main body is. Is it outlandish to think it might be 20-30 miles ( a day's march?) behind, moving on the high road in what is essentially an administrative movement? They would be setting up pow camps, semaphore stations and convoy stopping points along the road preparing it to be their main suppply route to Fairkyn at a minimum and possibly all the way to Guarnak.

We're told everything west of Esthyr's Abbey has been evacuated to Fairkyn and further west. Other than semaphore station crews along the high road and possibly a small detachment at St Zhana the path west to Fairkyn should just be a long administrative movement at best possible speed. Rotating Scout/sniper units will be used to take semaphore stations ahead of the column with as little damage as possible and to provide advance security.

Once we get past Esthyr's Abbey it may be a long time before we hear from BGV again. Thoughts on how this might go otherwise?
Last edited by EdThomas on Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by justdave   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:46 pm

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Dutch46 wrote:Then there is the fact that he will have a ready made containment in the portion of the village that remains intact after the attack. As to the number of guards required, circumstances allow for a minimum number. Any prisoner that is foolish enough to try to walk out is welcome to do so but only with the clothes on his back.


I agree, Esthyr’s Abbey will make an adequate POW camp and need a minimal guard force since there's no need to man the camp 'walls'
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)
Post by n7axw   » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:50 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:
It's a hard war. The best practical conduct in it is going to leave people with memories of what they had to do they're not going to care to revisit. Merlin's not alone in that. Good men and women are going to manage it at all not by insisting that every one of them had it coming (much as that's tempting even for people on this forum), but by cleaving as close to the best practical conduct as they can get and reminding themselves that nothing closer was practical.

Armed non-prisoners driven out into the cold won't be anyone they have to worry about feeding or guarding - or even guarding against, not for long. It's harsh, bitterly harsh, but this is war and that best practical conduct will still mean heaping buckets of bitterness.

Some of them may be wounded and unable to flee, or willing to put down their arms and surrender. Given what they have been made to believe about the "heretics", that's likely to be a small number still. Guarding those and taking them prisoner shouldn't be too difficult. Granted, given a choice, I'm sure BGV would rather save and feed a single camp inmate than 100 of those, but it's not a choice he's got.


IIRC, playing "The Pikes of Kolstyr" is a Siddarmarkan tradition rather than a EOC one even if BGV was humming the tune.

I don't think that the feeding and care of prisoners is BGV's concern. I believe that provision for dealing with that has been made even if it was done off stage. Green Valley and his advanced corp will be on their way to Fairkyn not long after the battle at Esthyr's Abbey and whatever provision that has been made for handling prisoners will be taken care of.

After all everyone involved in setting up and supporting the op would have understood that there would be prisoners if BGV is successful and factored that into the overall planning.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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