HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)

n7axw wrote: just thinking about the AOG. Only a very tiny percentage of the rank and file soldiers have actually been involved in any activity that could be regarded criminal. Most of them were probably drafted and taken away from their previous vocations. Their "guilt" is that due to circumstance and perhaps indoctrination, they are on the wrong side.


Don

I have seen this said a few times, and it isn't true for the AoG. Throughout the books, when describing things fro the AoG soldiers point of view... there were statements about how they volunteered. Volunteered to stamp out the vile heretics and bring justice.

Yeah, have a hard time conjuring up a ton of sympathy for them, even if they weren't wanting to go the full "punishment" route.

Granted we havent seen the text of the actual attack, but it seems to be shaping up like a fairly standard bombardment followed by infantry assault, and I wonder if that's the way to go here.

Given the descriptions of the accuracy of the 4 inch rifled field pieces, and that of the mortars, and references to how dependent upon shelter the Temple Boys are, it seems to me the least costly way is to shoot up their shelters and force them to surrender or freeze. Granted, the encircling infantry might be positioning to do exactly that, but it didn't sound like it in this snippet.

One problem with this is if the defenders decide to try to leapfrog to other buildings as their current shelters are holed it'll delay the inevitable, as well as slowing things down and expending a lot of artillery ammo, but likely with fewer allied casualties in the end.

isaac_newton wrote:

Yup - didn't we see that in the aborted attack during the brief seige of Thesmar when a number of infantry did just that!

Good catch. Yes, but those were Desnairians. Their peons are barely more autonomic than Harchongese serfs. Now we're talking about the Army of the Sylmahn.

Besides once they have surrendered, how are the priests going to get at them?

Well, in their minds god is on the side of the Church and will never allow heretics to have the final victory.

~Tonto

Tonto Silerheels wrote:SNIP

I suspect that Wyrshym is going to retreat West down the Guarnak-Ice Ash canal, and Green Valley and the Siddarmarkian forces in the Sylmahn gap will join.
~Tonto

You used the "R" word. Somewhere in the deep recesses of my antiquated brain is the thought Clyntahn ain't gonna let any BLEEP BLEEP general retreat. They've put all that effort into supporting him and he wants to retreat?!
I will be astonished if Wyrshym's allowed to retreat.
It will be interesting to see what happens when the troops BGV left in the Gap and the Siddarmarkians start rolling up W's southern front.

EdThomas wrote:

You used the "R" word. Somewhere in the deep recesses of my antiquated brain is the thought Clyntahn ain't gonna let any BLEEP BLEEP general retreat.

You make a good point. I seem to recall that Green Valley was musing at the end of the last book that he thought Wyrshym would be smart enough to retreat. I conclude that if he doesn't, or if Clyntahn doesn't let him, then Green Valley will destroy the Army of the Sylmahn in Guarnak.

Further to my earlier post, once Green Valley and the Siddarmarkians join I believe Green Valley will get his supplies up the Sylmahn gap, shortening his line and making Ranshair and the Ice Ash available to the second front I was proposing.

~Tonto

Tonto Silerheels wrote:EdThomas wrote:

You used the "R" word. Somewhere in the deep recesses of my antiquated brain is the thought Clyntahn ain't gonna let any BLEEP BLEEP general retreat.

You make a good point. I seem to recall that Green Valley was musing at the end of the last book that he thought Wyrshym would be smart enough to retreat. I conclude that if he doesn't, or if Clyntahn doesn't let him, then Green Valley will destroy the Army of the Sylmahn in Guarnak.

Further to my earlier post, once Green Valley and the Siddarmarkians join I believe Green Valley will get his supplies up the Sylmahn gap, shortening his line and making Ranshair and the Ice Ash available to the second front I was proposing.

~Tonto

I suspect that if Wyrshym has to retreat it will be in a similar situation to Kaitswryth's where by the time Clyntahn hears about it, the deed will be done.

I notice that despite several reverses including two by the AOG, Clyntahn hasn't demanded anyone's head or even insisted on relieving anyone of command on the army side. On the navy side, Jahras and Colman were forced to remove themselves and their families from Clyntahn's reach after Ithyria. Also, despite being the senior officer to survive Armageddon Reef and Crag Reach, both defeats, Thirsk is placed in command of Dohlar's new model navy even though Clyntahn obviously doesn't like him.

Interesting. Are we looking at Clyntahn's limits here?

Don

Hi Don,

It's still March, and the first reinforcements won't arrive until May at best, so I think he still has plenty of time to get most of the way to Guarnak, RFC willing.

There's been speculation about Wyrshym retreating to Five Forks before being compelled to surrender, and RFC could very well have set that up quite intentionally.

We don't know where exactly Esthyr's Abbey is in the Northland Gap, but if its in the middle of the gap Fairkyn is another 500 miles west, with just over 500 more to Guarnak; and if BGV stuck to the road most of the way to the Abbey, he's traveled around 200 miles so far.

Due to the imprecision of the dates we have so far, we don't have an daily average to plot how long it may take to reach Fairkyn, which I don't think is an accident on RFC's part.

If, as I've speculated before, ice racers from Ranshair, massing up to 100 tons or more like those on the Hudson ~120 years ago, could resupply BGV via the Ice Ash river or its Kalgaran east fork, replenishing him for a quicker lunge at Fairkyn, as well as a surprise far faster drive down the frozen Ice Ash canal than Wyrshym realizes is possible, because he's not familiar with the Chisholmian sport of ice racing where sustained speeds of 30 mph are common.

If the moon is then amenable for after dark navigation [the annual Hudson ice races were 24 hours straight through the night etc], BGV might then reach the Guarnak-Sylmahn in only a day or two [or 3-4], and Wyrshym is thus toast.

Given my record of past predictions that's not going to happen, but sometimes you get closer than others.

If only half of Wyrshym's army is trapped and he's forced to fight a delaying action as he retreats up the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal, where he loses his rear guard in almost every engagement, he might not have much left when he reaches Five forks anyway, and his anticipated reinforcements have been delayed by the weather and/or other inner circle or allied operations.

L

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart et al.,

I really don't believe BGV is going to start committing atrocities either. But PeterZ is right to be concerned about his anger. Then there is the fatigue factor along with all the burned out farms and villages they've seen...

Were I to decide what to do with POWs, I would detail dragoons as guards and then start transporting them to the rear with the empty wagons/sleds that brought forward my provisions. Once you have them where the supply access is better, establish a POW camp.

Lyonheart, what's your take on the distance BGV still has to travel to finish his flanking movement on Wyrshym? It looks to me like a long way. I wonder if he can get there in time to deal with Wyrshym before he is reinforced.



Don

n7axw wrote:

Tonto Silerheels wrote:EdThomas wrote:

You used the "R" word. Somewhere in the deep recesses of my antiquated brain is the thought Clyntahn ain't gonna let any BLEEP BLEEP general retreat.

You make a good point. I seem to recall that Green Valley was musing at the end of the last book that he thought Wyrshym would be smart enough to retreat. I conclude that if he doesn't, or if Clyntahn doesn't let him, then Green Valley will destroy the Army of the Sylmahn in Guarnak.

Further to my earlier post, once Green Valley and the Siddarmarkians join I believe Green Valley will get his supplies up the Sylmahn gap, shortening his line and making Ranshair and the Ice Ash available to the second front I was proposing.

~Tonto

I suspect that if Wyrshym has to retreat it will be in a similar situation to Kaitswryth's where by the time Clyntahn hears about it, the deed will be done.

I notice that despite several reverses including two by the AOG, Clyntahn hasn't demanded anyone's head or even insisted on relieving anyone of command on the army side. On the navy side, Jahras and Colman were forced to remove themselves and their families from Clyntahn's reach after Ithyria. Also, despite being the senior officer to survive Armageddon Reef and Crag Reach, both defeats, Thirsk is placed in command of Dohlar's new model navy even though Clyntahn obviously doesn't like him.

Interesting. Are we looking at Clyntahn's limits here?

Don

Or his pragmatism?

BTW do we have an idea when the winter thaw sets in? To my mind thats going to be the major stop on rapid movement for a while.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

It's still March, and the first reinforcements won't arrive until May at best, so I think he still has plenty of time to get most of the way to Guarnak, RFC willing.

There's been speculation about Wyrshym retreating to Five Forks before being compelled to surrender, and RFC could very well have set that up quite intentionally.

We don't know where exactly Esthyr's Abbey is in the Northland Gap, but if its in the middle of the gap Fairkyn is another 500 miles west, with just over 500 more to Guarnak; and if BGV stuck to the road most of the way to the Abbey, he's traveled around 200 miles so far.

Due to the imprecision of the dates we have so far, we don't have an daily average to plot how long it may take to reach Fairkyn, which i don't think is an accident on RFC's part.

If, as I've speculated before, ice racers from Ranshair, massing up to 100 tons or more like those on the Hudson ~120 years ago, could resupply BGV via the Ice Ash river or its Kalgaran east fork, replenishing him for a quicker lunge at Fairkyn, as well as a surprise far faster drive down the frozen Ice Ash canal than Wyrshym realizes is possible, because he's not familiar with the Chisholmian sport of ice racing where sustained speeds of 30 mph are common.

If the moon is then amenable for after dark navigation [the annual Hudson ice races were 24 hours straight through the night etc], BGV might then reach the Guarnak-Sylmahn in only a day or two [or 3-4], and Wyrshym is thus toast.

Given my record of past predictions that's not going to happen, but sometimes you get closer than others.

If only half of Wyrshym's army is trapped and he's forced to fight a delaying action as he retreats up the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal, where he loses his rear guard in almost every engagement, he might not have much left when he reaches Five forks anyway, and his anticipated reinforcements have been delayed by the weather and/or other inner circle or allied operations.

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart et al.,

I really don't believe BGV is going to start committing atrocities either. But PeterZ is right to be concerned about his anger. Then there is the fatigue factor along with all the burned out farms and villages they've seen...

Were I to decide what to do with POWs, I would detail dragoons as guards and then start transporting them to the rear with the empty wagons/sleds that brought forward my provisions. Once you have them where the supply access is better, establish a POW camp.

Lyonheart, what's your take on the distance BGV still has to travel to finish his flanking movement on Wyrshym? It looks to me like a long way. I wonder if he can get there in time to deal with Wyrshym before he is reinforced.

Don

I'm not sure how exact this is, but according to the snippet, Esthyr's Abbey is on the high road in the center of the Northland Gap with the Meirstrom Mountains to the north and the Kalgarans to the south. That description does make it possible to go to a map and put you finger on an approximate location of where the town should be sitting and eyeball distances from there.

This is just a guess but it seems the closest we've been able to come in locating BGV so far.

Don

Hi Isaac Newton,

Very good point!

Because Safehold is much colder than earth and the fact the Northland Gap is around 54 degrees north, I expect the thaw will be well into April, probably around the middle if not nearer the end of the month depending on the weather this year, which is why the AoG didn't march out last year until May when the roads were clear and dry.

Imagine Clyntahn's reaction to the weather delaying all the new weapons and reinforcements a critical 5day or two, or three.

Are the weather gods/or archangels, against the jihad?

One reason I like using the canal for ice boats is that the canal walls would shield much of the bottom ice from the sun more than that ice directly exposed on the land round about, being at the right south west angle [~45 degrees?] only in the late afternoon, while also sheltering the colder air lingering in the bottom of the canal, besides the still freezing night air that would refreeze the ice quickly for use the rest of the night, probably resurfacing it and keeping it a flatter, smoother surface than it otherwise might be.

Thus, using the ice boats, which have boat shaped hulls 'just in case' they're needed, could be used longer than might be expected while the muddy roads and countryside make Wyrshym [even if he is warned] think he has much more time to evacuate than he really does.

Unless he thinks he outnumbers BGV so much [November AMA] or because of the arrival of his new weapons, he can attack, or must.

Which I would look forward to reading very much.

L

isaac_newton wrote:

n7axw wrote:*quote="Tonto Silerheels"*EdThomas wrote:

You used the "R" word. Somewhere in the deep recesses of my antiquated brain is the thought Clyntahn ain't gonna let any BLEEP BLEEP general retreat.

You make a good point. I seem to recall that Green Valley was musing at the end of the last book that he thought Wyrshym would be smart enough to retreat. I conclude that if he doesn't, or if Clyntahn doesn't let him, then Green Valley will destroy the Army of the Sylmahn in Guarnak.

Further to my earlier post, once Green Valley and the Siddarmarkians join I believe Green Valley will get his supplies up the Sylmahn gap, shortening his line and making Ranshair and the Ice Ash available to the second front I was proposing.

~Tonto*quote*

I suspect that if Wyrshym has to retreat it will be in a similar situation to Kaitswryth's where by the time Clyntahn hears about it, the deed will be done.

I notice that despite several reverses including two by the AOG, Clyntahn hasn't demanded anyone's head or even insisted on relieving anyone of command on the army side. On the navy side, Jahras and Colman were forced to remove themselves and their families from Clyntahn's reach after Ithyria. Also, despite being the senior officer to survive Armageddon Reef and Crag Reach, both defeats, Thirsk is placed in command of Dohlar's new model navy even though Clyntahn obviously doesn't like him.

Interesting. Are we looking at Clyntahn's limits here?

Don

Or his pragmatism?

BTW do we have an idea when the winter thaw sets in? To my mind thats going to be the major stop on rapid movement for a while.