Hi Don,
It's still March, and the first reinforcements won't arrive until May at best, so I think he still has plenty of time to get most of the way to Guarnak, RFC willing.
There's been speculation about Wyrshym retreating to Five Forks before being compelled to surrender, and RFC could very well have set that up quite intentionally.
We don't know where exactly Esthyr's Abbey is in the Northland Gap, but if its in the middle of the gap Fairkyn is another 500 miles west, with just over 500 more to Guarnak; and if BGV stuck to the road most of the way to the Abbey, he's traveled around 200 miles so far.
Due to the imprecision of the dates we have so far, we don't have an daily average to plot how long it may take to reach Fairkyn, which I don't think is an accident on RFC's part.
If, as I've speculated before, ice racers from Ranshair, massing up to 100 tons or more like those on the Hudson ~120 years ago, could resupply BGV via the Ice Ash river or its Kalgaran east fork, replenishing him for a quicker lunge at Fairkyn, as well as a surprise far faster drive down the frozen Ice Ash canal than Wyrshym realizes is possible, because he's not familiar with the Chisholmian sport of ice racing where sustained speeds of 30 mph are common.
If the moon is then amenable for after dark navigation [the annual Hudson ice races were 24 hours straight through the night etc], BGV might then reach the Guarnak-Sylmahn in only a day or two [or 3-4], and Wyrshym is thus toast.
Given my record of past predictions that's not going to happen, but sometimes you get closer than others.
If only half of Wyrshym's army is trapped and he's forced to fight a delaying action as he retreats up the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal, where he loses his rear guard in almost every engagement, he might not have much left when he reaches Five forks anyway, and his anticipated reinforcements have been delayed by the weather and/or other inner circle or allied operations.
L
n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart et al.,
I really don't believe BGV is going to start committing atrocities either. But PeterZ is right to be concerned about his anger. Then there is the fatigue factor along with all the burned out farms and villages they've seen...
Were I to decide what to do with POWs, I would detail dragoons as guards and then start transporting them to the rear with the empty wagons/sleds that brought forward my provisions. Once you have them where the supply access is better, establish a POW camp.
Lyonheart, what's your take on the distance BGV still has to travel to finish his flanking movement on Wyrshym? It looks to me like a long way. I wonder if he can get there in time to deal with Wyrshym before he is reinforced.
Don