HFQ Official Snippet #26 (I think)

tootall wrote:tootall- Given BGV's disgust (RFC' disgust) it seems to me that mercy is going to be in short supply -on both sides- in this book.
n7axw replied
I will only say to this that, for what it's worth, I have been reading David Weber for 20 plus years. I have never seen him write that way and I don't believe he's going to start now. There will be justice for the parties guilty of atrocities. But that's different than vengeance or simply blind rage.


I don't really disagree, and I see a difference between shooting prisoners who have surrendered- and driving them out of their holes into the wild to survive as they've left their victims to survive.
I don't see atrocities on BGV's part.- However, given the fate of any of his men who might be captured, and the fate of the camp inhabitants, and past massacres, I see little mercy.
One final thought, if he has to care for 4000 prisoners, his offensive operations are over.

I think I concur with Don on this. However, since BGV is likely to be using his morters etc as door knockers, then there will be a lot less than 4000 anyway. I can't see the AOG army surrendering immediately!

tootall wrote:I don't really disagree, and I see a difference between shooting prisoners who have surrendered- and driving them out of their holes into the wild to survive as they've left their victims to survive.
I don't see atrocities on BGV's part.- However, given the fate of any of his men who might be captured, and the fate of the camp inhabitants, and past massacres, I see little mercy.
One final thought, if he has to care for 4000 prisoners, his offensive operations are over.

Hi Tootall,

There have been atrocities on the part of the forces commanded by the Gang of Four since the war began. Some of the victims have been friends of EOC forces. Yet, the EOC forces have maintained the Emperor’s policy on prisoners of war. I don’t think that anyone outside of the inner circle knows what is going on in the concentration camps. That means that BGV would have to order a change in policy to leave the enemy forces to freeze to death.

I tried to look up the U.S. Army policy on the ratio of guards to prisoners of war. The only reference I found was 1 to 20. That might have been for prisoners already in a stockade or prison. BGV has 27,000 plus men in the first corp. Even if he had to assign guards at a 1 to 1 basis, he can leave the prisoners of war guarded, and still have a two to one numerical advantage when he gets to Fairkyn. I expect him to take one day to win Esthyr’s Abbey, and one day to organize the prisoners of war and the care of the wounded. Maybe, he will spend three full days at Esthyr’s Abbey, but I would bet on two.

As for the prisoners, I expect the second corp will pick them up and bring them along. Once the second corp leaves Allyntyn, I don’t think that there will be any ICA forces there. I think the town will be handed off to Siddarmark troops.

James

tootall wrote:1) I think that BVG said that he could get to the camps-but he couldn't feed them. I take that to mean that he can feed his own people (indefinitely) but not anyone else.

Do we really believe that he's willing to feed AoG soldiers (authors of the atrocities) if he can't feed the victims?
I think no prisoners- he'll kill as many as he can and allow the rest to "escape"-and freeze. And it appears that he's setting up his attack so that none of them can report their destruction.

2) Runs For has again pointed out the horrific crimes committed against civilians by the church and by their military arm the AoG. It seems to me that the AoG is getting the bulk of the blame for the atrocities committed in the name of "God."
For example, we have developed some respect for the Army of Dohlar and it's commander, and yet haven't they committed their share of these crimes? Thrisk, whom we all seem to like- turned his prisoners over to the Inquisition to be murdered. I no longer think he survives.
Given BGV's disgust (RFC' disgust) it seems to me that mercy is going to be in short supply -on both sides- in this book.

I have never figured out why so many people on this forum have such a hate on for Thirsk because the Inquisition demanded the prisoners, and his King and his command structure agreed and ordered it. He had no control over the prisoners even before they were turned over to the Inquisition as is evidenced by his feelings about the way they were being treated and his arguments about what we do vs what the "heretics" do only to be totally disregarded except to be warned about being nice to heretics. His only choice was to obey or join them/die. And the same thing would have happened anyway. He did not participate, he did not agree, and he knew he could not make a difference.

JeffEngel wrote:

Henry Brown wrote:I'd say the new 4.5 inch mortar is going to be fairly important as the series continues. It is described as having 4000 yards extra range compared to the older 3 inch mortar. If I'm not mistaken, the old mortars could fire something like a mile to a mile and a half. So the new M97 mortars should have something like 3.5 to 4 miles of total range. If the ICA can work out a good system for forward fire control that is going to be a pretty substantial advantage on any battlefield. Or better yet, put the 4.5 mortars on high ground so they can direct their own fire.

It's got a lot of range and kick, but it won't be getting to all the places the M95 can or as easily. The M95, in pieces, is just barely man-portable among a squad of four. I doubt the plate of a M97 is something a human is carrying at all, so the piece (assembled or not) has to be carried on wheels or draft animal. (Or a draft animal dragging it on wheels.) It's an out-and-out field artillery piece. That's a fine niche to be filled, but it still leaves a role for M95's or an updated 3.5" mortar like it.

Agreed, the new M97 is not going to be nearly as portable as the smaller M95 mortar. But it has so much extra range that they will not need to move as much. In fact, your point about them being more like field artillery is a good one. My guess is that the ICA is going to continue to use the M95 as a close, mobile infantry support weapon and is going to evolve different tactics for the M97 to take advantage of the range.

JRM wrote:

tootall wrote:I don't really disagree, and I see a difference between shooting prisoners who have surrendered- and driving them out of their holes into the wild to survive as they've left their victims to survive.
I don't see atrocities on BGV's part.- However, given the fate of any of his men who might be captured, and the fate of the camp inhabitants, and past massacres, I see little mercy.
One final thought, if he has to care for 4000 prisoners, his offensive operations are over.

Hi Tootall,

There have been atrocities on the part of the forces commanded by the Gang of Four since the war began. Some of the victims have been friends of EOC forces. Yet, the EOC forces have maintained the Emperor’s policy on prisoners of war. I don’t think that anyone outside of the inner circle knows what is going on in the concentration camps. That means that BGV would have to order a change in policy to leave the enemy forces to freeze to death.

I tried to look up the U.S. Army policy on the ratio of guards to prisoners of war. The only reference I found was 1 to 20. That might have been for prisoners already in a stockade or prison. BGV has 27,000 plus men in the first corp. Even if he had to assign guards at a 1 to 1 basis, he can leave the prisoners of war guarded, and still have a two to one numerical advantage when he gets to Fairkyn. I expect him to take one day to win Esthyr’s Abbey, and one day to organize the prisoners of war and the care of the wounded. Maybe, he will spend three full days at Esthyr’s Abbey, but I would bet on two.

As for the prisoners, I expect the second corp will pick them up and bring them along. Once the second corp leaves Allyntyn, I don’t think that there will be any ICA forces there. I think the town will be handed off to Siddarmark troops.

James

Because of past experiences (for instance Koje-do Island during the Korean War) U.S. Army doctrine (FM 3-63, Detainee Operations, April 2014) on long-term detainee operations recommends keeping each compound fairly small (<500 detainees) with the ability to segregate each compound into smaller groupings. This requires roughly a 1:10 ratio of guards to detainees in permanent facilities. Transporting this to the book would require BGV to leave one of his battalions to guard the prisoners.

Combat units capturing EPWs often exceed this ratio. See pictures of Iraqi EPWs during Desert Storm.

USMA74 wrote:

Combat units capturing EPWs often exceed this ratio. See pictures of Iraqi EPWs during Desert Storm.

There may not be many EPWs. There are some indications that the CoGA considers it treason to surrender. If given the option of fighting to the death or the Punishment of Scheuler, many may opt for the former.

~Tonto

Tonto Silerheels wrote:USMA74 wrote:

Combat units capturing EPWs often exceed this ratio. See pictures of Iraqi EPWs during Desert Storm.

There may not be many EPWs. There are some indications that the CoGA considers it treason to surrender. If given the option of fighting to the death or the Punishment of Scheuler, many may opt for the former.

~Tonto

They may when they are talking to the priest, or when they are thinking about it from safety. When they are taking fire from places they cannot see - when they are wounded and surrounded - when half the unit has fled or died or is busy dying - they may not behave quite as they would predict talking or thinking about it back when.

JeffEngel wrote:

Tonto Silerheels wrote:USMA74 wrote:

Combat units capturing EPWs often exceed this ratio. See pictures of Iraqi EPWs during Desert Storm.

There may not be many EPWs. There are some indications that the CoGA considers it treason to surrender. If given the option of fighting to the death or the Punishment of Scheuler, many may opt for the former.

~Tonto

They may when they are talking to the priest, or when they are thinking about it from safety. When they are taking fire from places they cannot see - when they are wounded and surrounded - when half the unit has fled or died or is busy dying - they may not behave quite as they would predict talking or thinking about it back when.

Yup - didn't we see that in the aborted attack during the brief seige of Thesmar when a number of infantry did just that!

Besides once they have surrendered, how are the priests going to get at them?

'I say, you Charisian chappies - can we have our deserters back so we can put them to unspeakable torments for failing to kill you... safe conducts, of course, when we come to get them'

There won't be any atrocities and I classify driving POWs out into the countryside as an atrocity. There have been a number of discussions in the texts on how to treat prisoners and | don't think the the Barron is going to make a unilateral change to it. Then there is the fact that he will have a ready made containment in the portion of the village that remains intact after the attack. As to the number of guards required, circumstances allow for a minimum number. Any prisoner that is foolish enough to try to walk out is welcome to do so but only with the clothes on his back. Those folks will surely become ready meals for the by now starving wildlife. Also, the battle will surely be watched by SNARCs and recorded. I'm sure that somewhere in the back of his mind that fact and that he will be held responsible for the conduct of his troops will make itself known. Lastly, I have no doubt that should any atrocities occur and they were within the power of the Barron to stop and he failed to do so, the Archbishop will have his say about the man's future, or lack thereof.

tootall wrote:tootall- Given BGV's disgust (RFC' disgust) it seems to me that mercy is going to be in short supply -on both sides- in this book.
n7axw replied
I will only say to this that, for what it's worth, I have been reading David Weber for 20 plus years. I have never seen him write that way and I don't believe he's going to start now. There will be justice for the parties guilty of atrocities. But that's different than vengeance or simply blind rage.


I don't really disagree, and I see a difference between shooting prisoners who have surrendered- and driving them out of their holes into the wild to survive as they've left their victims to survive.
I don't see atrocities on BGV's part.- However, given the fate of any of his men who might be captured, and the fate of the camp inhabitants, and past massacres, I see little mercy.
One final thought, if he has to care for 4000 prisoners, his offensive operations are over.

Just a few thoughts here... I suspect that the matter of dealing with POWs has been thought through by Cayleb and perhaps the army prior to the campaign. Given the certainty of Merlin's input, the result probably won't tarnish the allies reputation. Speculation, I know, but reasonable speculation, I think. So I don't think that POWs are going to slow BGV up.

On to the more abstract... just thinking about the AOG. Only a very tiny percentage of the rank and file soldiers have actually been involved in any activity that could be regarded criminal. Most of them were probably drafted and taken away from their previous vocations. Their "guilt" is that due to circumstance and perhaps indoctrination, they are on the wrong side.

To paraphrase Eloise Pritchard in the Honorverse, "even enemies are human beings." And they deserve to be treated as such, the inquisition's criminality not withstanding. And, I would add, it is in the allies long term advantage to do that. It sometimes is referred to as hearts and minds campaigning. Consider that assault that Harless staged on Thesmar. Some of his soldiers allowed themselves to be captured when the assault was repulsed and they weren't even wounded.

But really the big objection to not treating POWs well, or for that matter, "freeing" them and thrusting them out into a non-survival situation is that it perpetrates a cycle of hatred and revenge. "Tit for tit and tat for tat" has never created a better world in either our timeline or Safehold's. Siddarmark is going to suffer the consequences of the SOS for generations to come. Most surely adding to that or spreading it elsewhere is not a good thing.

Don