JeffEngel wrote:SWM wrote:I believe your conclusions are interesting, but are based on incomplete evidence. David has explained previously in this forum that Manticore planners are indeed looking toward a time when all light combatants are equipped with DDMS. That is why they expect the sizes of light combatants to grow significantly. Their current prediction is a 300,000 kt destroyer or light cruiser will become the smallest viable light warship--one which is equipped with a smaller version of Keyhole, tube-fired DDMs, and FTL control.
The Wolfhound and Avalon exist because they are not ready to produce this notional 300,000 kt ship. It will require quite a bit more R&D before they can reduce the size of Keyhole and FTL missile control. Wolfhound and Avalon are designed as an interim measure, to deal with the current threat environment until the R&D catches up to the need that they see. DDMs will not fit on current destroyer broadsides, and Roland was seen as an experiment, so equipping Wolfhound and Avalon with DDMs was impossible.
I guess the question here is that the timing of the Wolfhound and Avalon suggest that the Mk 16, whether currently available or in the pipeline, ought to have had a greater influence on their design, especially with how many of them have been built, unless some odd factor was at work. All of these - including the Mk-16-using Sag-C, Roland, and Nike - are designs to use well ahead of whatever is going to be able to use a Keyhole variant on a 300-400k hull. I'm pegging that light combatant with a KH-II variant as a little bit ahead of the near-future designs I have in mind. (Granted, the assumption that that miniaturization is bit further off is just a hunch.)
Do you suppose that the notional 300-400k light combatant is likely to require a sufficiently different design that they're figuring that all the ships they build before then will be fodder for scrapping rather than refitting to similar specs? I could buy that, and it would explain building so many ships that they expect to see go obsolete while still relatively young. It's a departure from traditional practice, but lately, building ships has gotten much cheaper and refitting new capabilities into them has grown so much harder. That could justify abandoning that tradition of long expected service lives.
This is a couple of days old, but I have been away for awhile.
I was re-reading stuff I missed, and there are several excellent posts. My thought sort of focused on the timing, as opposed to the tech or the costs.
Please recall that the Gauntlet was one of the newest heavy cruisers of its time, with the then-most-up-to-date weapons fit--in 1917. Design acceptance for the new ships was difficult, because High Ridge & Co. didn't see any threat at all --from anyone. So while it may very well have been possible to have gotten ships of this capability in service by the end of 1915, they didn't commission the first one (Saganami-B) until 1917, while the lighter ships didn't make it out of the yards until 1919. In 1919 the Janacek Admiralty began emergency construction --but the Saganami-C and Roland were still "experimental" and "unproven", and the improvements in RHN wallers didn't see corresponding light ship improvements yet. He was building the ships he had stockpiled the parts for, that he already had munitions for; the first Sag-C and Nike class didn't deploy until 1921, istr.
I think the numbers of the Saganami-B and Reliant-III/IV reflect the efforts of the shipyards to clear out ships already under construction, to clear the ways, as well as getting the greatest number of ships built (production cycle had already been worked out).
YMMV, of course.
Rob