How will it work out in Desnair?

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:The rise of Protestantism happened where the merchant classes were the most vibrant. Those countries where the merchnt class were weaker tended to remain Catholic.

Don

... Venice?

Touche, indeed. In my own defense, I will only say that there is no norm without exceptions. What happened in Venice and other parts of Italy would certainly qualify as exceptions to the norm.

Of course, if it were to turn out that there are too many exceptions, one would need a restatement of the norm.

Don

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:... Venice?

Touche, indeed. In my own defense, I will only say that there is no norm without exceptions. What happened in Venice and other parts of Italy would certainly qualify as exceptions to the norm.

Of course, if it were to turn out that there are too many exceptions, one would need a restatement of the norm.

Don

I'd not count Sweden or Germany as having an especially vibrant merchant class in that era either - certainly not Sweden, probably not Germany. Or Scotland. Venice is just the strongest counter-example.

I'd peg it more, if I needed some general rule, that Catholicism remained in states where the monarchies had a lot of influence/power over the papacy and could use it: France, Spain, the Hapsburg-dominated portions of the HRE, plus Italian city-states under the thumb of one of those or themselves with strong ties to Rome.

JeffEngel wrote:I'd not count Sweden or Germany as having an especially vibrant merchant class in that era either - certainly not Sweden, probably not Germany. Or Scotland. Venice is just the strongest counter-example.

I'd peg it more, if I needed some general rule, that Catholicism remained in states where the monarchies had a lot of influence/power over the papacy and could use it: France, Spain, the Hapsburg-dominated portions of the HRE, plus Italian city-states under the thumb of one of those or themselves with strong ties to Rome.

Between the two of you, Jeff and Don, you have supported an idea that Desnair will likely not forsake the CoGA. They cannot take the chance that such a fundamental change in religion will not have dire consequences to the political stability of their nation. Much like the strong monarchies of Europe did not want to risk changes in the established religion, neither can Desnair risk it.

Following that basic assumption, Desnair cannot risk freeing their merchant classes to innovate and further destabilize Desnair's social order. Any changes moving faster than that of glacial retreat in the waning stages of an ice age will risk the Desnairi aristocracy's hold on power. Not gonna happen.

The aristocrats might begin to adopt an innovative approach. That is also not likely as that would shift the balance of power and the losing aristos would grow restive enough for the Emperor to discourage the successful aristos.

PeterZ wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:I'd not count Sweden or Germany as having an especially vibrant merchant class in that era either - certainly not Sweden, probably not Germany. Or Scotland. Venice is just the strongest counter-example.

I'd peg it more, if I needed some general rule, that Catholicism remained in states where the monarchies had a lot of influence/power over the papacy and could use it: France, Spain, the Hapsburg-dominated portions of the HRE, plus Italian city-states under the thumb of one of those or themselves with strong ties to Rome.

Between the two of you, Jeff and Don, you have supported an idea that Desnair will likely not forsake the CoGA. They cannot take the chance that such a fundamental change in religion will not have dire consequences to the political stability of their nation. Much like the strong monarchies of Europe did not want to risk changes in the established religion, neither can Desnair risk it.

Well... no sweeping change doesn't mean no change whatever. An isolated Desnair and a weakened church may mean that the Church in Desnair may be made to serve Desnairian imperial interests more than Zion's. Not a break with Zion, but an adjustment in the relationship.

Certainly not being able to send tithes safely to Zion will mean that they are spent in Desnair. That's going to be fine with the Church in Desnair and even better in the eyes of Desnairians themselves.

Following that basic assumption, Desnair cannot risk freeing their merchant classes to innovate and further destabilize Desnair's social order. Any changes moving faster than that of glacial retreat in the waning stages of an ice age will risk the Desnairi aristocracy's hold on power. Not gonna happen.

The aristocrats might begin to adopt an innovative approach. That is also not likely as that would shift the balance of power and the losing aristos would grow restive enough for the Emperor to discourage the successful aristos.

But can they afford no change at all? I doubt they will think so after these hits. Certainly keeping in power the way they are accustomed to will disincline aristocrats and Church officials to change much, but failure to innovate at all is going to mean extinction of the Desnairian way of life too.

I'd foresee sluggish, irregular innovations, technically and socially, as in Russia in the nineteenth century but without quite so vigorous an intellectual class.

Whenever I think of Desnair, I can't help but think of Spain in the 15th century. Thoroughly dominated by an upper-class haughty nobility, very little of a middle class, a ruling monarchy with very strong ties to the Church and the Inquisition, and a lot of wealth in the form of gold (which turned out to be a curse in disguise, as the constant influx of gold from its American conquests curtailed the rise of a strong merchant and trader class that would play so big a role in later times, in other countries)

I think Desnair will try and make peace, while keeping their religious adherence to the "true" CoGA. Afterwards, however, it will steadily stagnate, and end up as a second-class power. The best that could happen to them is their gold mines running dry.

Thoughts, anyone?

JeffEngel wrote:snip

I'd foresee sluggish, irregular innovations, technically and socially, as in Russia in the nineteenth century but without quite so vigorous an intellectual class.

A long and eloquent way of saying "I agree".

peke wrote:Whenever I think of Desnair, I can't help but think of Spain in the 15th century. Thoroughly dominated by an upper-class haughty nobility, very little of a middle class, a ruling monarchy with very strong ties to the Church and the Inquisition, and a lot of wealth in the form of gold (which turned out to be a curse in disguise, as the constant influx of gold from its American conquests curtailed the rise of a strong merchant and trader class that would play so big a role in later times, in other countries)

I think Desnair will try and make peace, while keeping their religious adherence to the "true" CoGA. Afterwards, however, it will steadily stagnate, and end up as a second-class power. The best that could happen to them is their gold mines running dry.

Thoughts, anyone?

Spain is not really a bad example of what I was thinking of. But you do need to remember that the inquisition in Spain was under the effective control of the crown, pretty much all the way back to the time when they were ferreting out Jews and Moors which is precisely what I see happening to the inquisition in Desnair.

Don

JeffEngel wrote:

I'd not count Sweden or Germany as having an especially vibrant merchant class in that era either - certainly not Sweden, probably not Germany. Or Scotland. Venice is just the strongest counter-example.

I'd peg it more, if I needed some general rule, that Catholicism remained in states where the monarchies had a lot of influence/power over the papacy and could use it: France, Spain, the Hapsburg-dominated portions of the HRE, plus Italian city-states under the thumb of one of those or themselves with strong ties to Rome.

General norms do get tough to come by, don't they? I think that Germany's middle class was a bit stronger than you seem to be crediting. I can't really comment on Sweden or Scotland... although it is interesting to note that Presbyterian Scotland tended to be in the lowland areas which were a bit more merchantile oriented, whereas the Highlands remained Catholic. The three areas I was thinking about were Germany, Holland and England when I made my comment.

Buttressing your point, though, when in England Henry VIII decided he needed a divorce, he discovered that he didn't have as much influence as he needed with the Pope, got up one morning and declared, We are Protestants today... That turned into a bit of a bumpy ride for a while.

Don

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:

I'd not count Sweden or Germany as having an especially vibrant merchant class in that era either - certainly not Sweden, probably not Germany. Or Scotland. Venice is just the strongest counter-example.

I'd peg it more, if I needed some general rule, that Catholicism remained in states where the monarchies had a lot of influence/power over the papacy and could use it: France, Spain, the Hapsburg-dominated portions of the HRE, plus Italian city-states under the thumb of one of those or themselves with strong ties to Rome.

General norms do get tough to come by, don't they? I think that Germany's middle class was a bit stronger than you seem to be crediting. I can't really comment on Sweden or Scotland... although it is interesting to note that Presbyterian Scotland tended to be in the lowland areas which were a bit more merchantile oriented, whereas the Highlands remained Catholic. The three areas I was thinking about were Germany, Holland and England when I made my comment.

Buttressing your point, though, when in England Henry VIII decided he needed a divorce, he discovered that he didn't have as much influence as he needed with the Pope, got up one morning and declared, We are Protestants today... That turned into a bit of a bumpy ride for a while.

Don

Germany and Lower Sweden did have a very strong merchant clas, as well as teutonic cities in the balkans and as far west as holland. Does no one remember the "Hanseatic League"?

The real contrast, when you plot merchants vs reformation isn't, as Jeff points out, really Catholic vs Protestant. It's the kind of Protestant: the merchants are most influential in precisely the places that came down on Calvin's side rather than Luther's - the French cantons, Holland, lowland Scotland and bits of England [and, IIRC, the more Huguenot parts of France fit the bill at least somewhat]. Luther and his hierarchical church picked up the slack where princes and nobles mattered - and it was a matter of princely influence. I saw a comment recently to the effect that Luther and the North German princes pulled of their version of the Reformation in large part because it was years before the people down in the parish churches noticed that anything was happening. In fact, judging by some of the music Bach was writing for the Thomaskirche, it was decades before they noticed much beyond the fact that they could now understand what that guy up front was saying. Some Anglicans still haven't noticed

As an aside, one should not confuse 'large' and 'centralised' with 'powerful' when discussing monarchies. The 300-odd German princes were quite powerful, particularly if a bunch of them ganged up on the Emperor, and had no trouble dictating the religious affiliations of their subjects [cuius regio, eius religio was the mantra]. Some of them were very odd indeed, BTW, but IIRC many of the oddest were to be found among the Catholics.

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:

I'd not count Sweden or Germany as having an especially vibrant merchant class in that era either - certainly not Sweden, probably not Germany. Or Scotland. Venice is just the strongest counter-example.

I'd peg it more, if I needed some general rule, that Catholicism remained in states where the monarchies had a lot of influence/power over the papacy and could use it: France, Spain, the Hapsburg-dominated portions of the HRE, plus Italian city-states under the thumb of one of those or themselves with strong ties to Rome.

General norms do get tough to come by, don't they? I think that Germany's middle class was a bit stronger than you seem to be crediting. I can't really comment on Sweden or Scotland... although it is interesting to note that Presbyterian Scotland tended to be in the lowland areas which were a bit more merchantile oriented, whereas the Highlands remained Catholic. The three areas I was thinking about were Germany, Holland and England when I made my comment.

Buttressing your point, though, when in England Henry VIII decided he needed a divorce, he discovered that he didn't have as much influence as he needed with the Pope, got up one morning and declared, We are Protestants today... That turned into a bit of a bumpy ride for a while.

Don