How will it work out in Desnair?

PeterZ wrote:

n7axw wrote:I was just thinking about the irony of Rock Point's deal after the battle. He sent back the personell of the surrendered ships after the battle in exchange for the destruction of the fleet base, the building slips and all the support structure around the area.

The unintended consequence: A fairly large group of trained personell are available to go privateering against Charisian commerce.

I wonder if he would make the same deal again knowing that.

Don

The alternative was to kill them all. There was no way the ICN could have taken those sailors captive. Had Rock Point continued the engagement, more of his own sailors would have died. Even knowing what he knows now, Rock Point would likely have made the same decision.

And keep your eye on the prize. The war ends when the mainland nations of Safehold can no longer believe that Charisians are monsters and that Zhaspyr Clyntahn is not. Every atrocity Charis declines to commit is a battle won; every atrocity Clyntahn does commit is an own-goal.

I wonder how much of the defunt navy will simply be pushed into the army to fill the empty ranks. SO they much choose depleet the privaters and hteir manned ships, or drain military forces from the rest of the empire. This might mean untrained people would be pushed into the navy as replacements potentially.

Hi PeterZ,

By the time the deal was made, the battle was over. Rock Point was not faced with continuing the battle. He had won. Virtually all of the sailors we are referring to were either on ships that had surrendered or fished out of the water.. Could he have taken them as POWS? Yes, he could have although doing so would have been a pain in the arse, confronting him with the need to arrange transport, and thrust Charis in the position of feeding and housing them.

What Yairley was confronting Kohlman over was the surrender of the city long enough to destroy the fleet base and its supporting infrastructure so that he wouldn't have to do it by bombardment and risk civilian casualties.

I don't think the alternative was to kill the prisoners. Irrespective of what Yairley said, Rock Point wasn't going to commit an atrocity. As Sharleyan noted, he was Maikel Staynair's brother after all.

I am not saying that the deal was wrong, by the way. But I can visualize there being a bit of buyers remorse on Rock Point's part, given the current problem with privateering.

Don

The results of the bombardment are not assured. We know that and Rock Point does too. Had it been possible to destroy the shipyards and foundries with the bombardment ships alone, Rock Point would have. That he did not suggests a landing was likely necessary. If that is true, securing 30,000 POWs would have taken away troops that could be used in the assault.

I suspect that Rock Point couldn't completely destroy his objective and maintain those POWs. His offer to kill the POWs was not a bluff. Had Kohlman rejected the offer, he would have burned those POWs in their surrendered ships. I don't think he would have threatened that had he any other realistic choice.

n7axw wrote:Hi PeterZ,

By the time the deal was made, the battle was over. Rock Point was not faced with continuing the battle. He had won. Virtually all of the sailors we are referring to were either on ships that had surrendered or fished out of the water.. Could he have taken them as POWS? Yes, he could have although doing so would have been a pain in the arse, confronting him with the need to arrange transport, and thrust Charis in the position of feeding and housing them.

What Yairley was confronting Kohlman over was the surrender of the city long enough to destroy the fleet base and its supporting infrastructure so that he wouldn't have to do it by bombardment and risk civilian casualties.

I don't think the alternative was to kill the prisoners. Irrespective of what Yairley said, Rock Point wasn't going to commit an atrocity. As Sharleyan noted, he was Maikel Staynair's brother after all.

I am not saying that the deal was wrong, by the way. But I can visualize there being a bit of buyers remorse on Rock Point's part, given the current problem with privateering.

Don

The destruction of those 2 main ports is near guaranteed, but until the gulf of dohlar is dealt with, the north coast facilities will remain intact. THey are likely to be well developed with all the trading and construction occuring. I wonder if any potential new navy was simply being built there instead, so safe from the imperium.

I think it's a pretty good guess.

Don't have electronic copies to search, but IIRC it's mentioned that Harless' force was essentially the troops that could be assembled and marched north in time to meet the projected invasion date [and I'm inclined to think they were late, at that]. You'll notice that Harless, Hankey and Hennet are all northern territories, for one thing, so they got the jobs in part because they were around as well as senior enough. I'm not sure why, but I have the feeling that the AoJ was roughly 1/2 Desnairian army, although it included all their decent artillery, such as it was and what there was of it. Given how expensive horses are, a standing force half the size of the RSA could easily be pushing the limits of Desnair's carrying capacity, which is consistent with Harless having about half of it with him.

BTW, I'd say that the internal-security role of the IDA is being overstated by some. Mahrys's nobility is not nearly as fractious as, say, Henry the Fowler's, and the mainstays of the officer corps anyway. A lot of the work of 'keeping them down on the farm' - to the degree this is necessary, which is probably being exaggerated - is likely done by the landlords' personal retainers anyway. It's not the Army that's keeping the central government in power [AAMOF, that's much more true in Chisholm than Desnair], and using it for interesting military things isn't going to be that big a strain.

n7axw wrote:

SYED wrote:The capital city, i believe still has a few ships from the fleet they were building for the war. Also, the other major city of Geyra has some of those ships still there. THey also have the dock and shipyards and other military industies necessary for any war effort.
We know most of the available military has been wreaked, if these cities were eliminated, then the country would be limited in what they can produce. So just removing those 2 cities, or eliminating as part of the military logistical system.
They might have other production sites along the coasts, but with it all dispersed, they would be limited by access to resources. It would slow down their development and force them to gain the materials they need from other sources.

You are right to point out those 20 galleons still at Desnair the City.

But what I wonder, and so far as I know there is no textev one way or the other, is how much of Desnair's military was lost in Siddarmark. We know that virtually the entire army with Harless was lost including what limited supply of modern weapons Desnair possessed.

We know that prior to the SoS, Siddarmark had 1.2 million under arms, not counting militia. Deanair's population is somewhat greater than Siddarmark's. So it doesn't seen out of line to assume an army at least similar in size. If that is the case, considering the 275,000 Harless lost in Siddarmark, it doesn't seem unreasonable to assume an army conservatively guessed of about 700,000 left behind in Desnair, virtually all of whom would be armed with their prewar weapons. Most of those would be cavalry armed with horsebows and lances and would be accustomed to the doctrines of shock upon which Desnair traditionally relied.

Just my guess anyway.

Don

Louis R wrote:I think it's a pretty good guess.

Don't have electronic copies to search, but IIRC it's mentioned that Harless' force was essentially the troops that could be assembled and marched north in time to meet the projected invasion date [and I'm inclined to think they were late, at that]. You'll notice that Harless, Hankey and Hennet are all northern territories, for one thing, so they got the jobs in part because they were around as well as senior enough.

Well - if officers in the IDA move around a bit (hey, they're on horses naturally!), it could be that the northern territories have a disproportionate number of officers prepared to go toe-to-toe with Siddarmark as a matter of tradition and inclination and that's the primary reason that northern nobles are senior leaders in this expedition. Being already nearby isn't going to matter too much if they're not actual leaders of a classic feudal levy, and Desnair has put that behind it.

I'm not sure why, but I have the feeling that the AoJ was roughly 1/2 Desnairian army, although it included all their decent artillery, such as it was and what there was of it. Given how expensive horses are, a standing force half the size of the RSA could easily be pushing the limits of Desnair's carrying capacity, which is consistent with Harless having about half of it with him.

If it's a matter of what could arrive by or near the due date, it's possible there's a similar second echelon coming up behind. We've not heard about that, while we have heard about them in the case of Harchong. It's plausible we've not heard about a second similar Desnairian force on the way north because life is short and Safehold books are not already, but it could also mean that there wasn't such a second force, which in turn would support the idea that the IDA isn't as large as you'd thought.

BTW, I'd say that the internal-security role of the IDA is being overstated by some. Mahrys's nobility is not nearly as fractious as, say, Henry the Fowler's, and the mainstays of the officer corps anyway. A lot of the work of 'keeping them down on the farm' - to the degree this is necessary, which is probably being exaggerated - is likely done by the landlords' personal retainers anyway. It's not the Army that's keeping the central government in power [AAMOF, that's much more true in Chisholm than Desnair], and using it for interesting military things isn't going to be that big a strain.

Probably. On the other hand, what's been the case in Desnair traditionally may be less the case now. Imperial authority has taken it on the nose. The Desnairian Navy feared to go out on the water and was burned out in port, after fabulous expense. The IDA - either a huge part of it or at least the available northern cream of it - has been outmaneuvered, outgunned, and is streaming away (and not even directly toward home) as refugees under the slight protection of Dohlar. Restive popular elements are going to think of this as an opportunity. Restive nobles are going to think that the Emperor, or his current ministers, are reasonably replaced "for the good of the Empire". And if the Inquisition can be convinced to lay the blame for it on any person or group currently in power, they will back a plausible successor.

Under those conditions, if the Army can be counted on to keep the Emperor's boot on whoever's neck, the Army is going to be something the Emperor and ministers will want ready at hand at home.

I'm not claiming that the Empire is about to fall apart like a house of cards in a stiff wind. I'm just saying that, however sturdy the Empire is, these are stiff wind conditions politically.

I believe that silkiah does not like being made to pay tribute to the empire, and not able to have a true military.
They are definitly going to end up having to loose their claim over that region. it will be independant or part of the republic.

I spent a couple of hours writing a major analysis of post - AoS Desnair, and the internet ate it. So a quick summary:

Northern Desnair at least has lost a large number of its nobility, although many of those may have been second or third sons, for example, so there may or may not be a bunch of inheritance issues about to crop up. There certainly will be some, and if the problem is widespread enough, given that Desnair practices slavery...

Desnair will be completely out of the war in a few months, once the Haarahld VIIs arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar and more ironclads arrive to patrol the Gulf of Jahras and the eastern coast of Desnair. The road through North Watch has already been cut in six places, so no new army is going to march out of Desnair during this war.

All of the new weapons, artillery, rifles, etc. were sent with the AoS. The church is in no position to pay to replace those weapons and outfit another army, and Desnair's nobles aren't anxious to feed themselves into the Siddarmarkan meat grinder again. Plus Desnair will be cut off from easy communication from Zion and for the first time has the opportunity to go its own way as far as the CoGA is concerned. Vicars who happen to be visiting their sees in Desnair may find it more to their liking to set up permanent residence and live in fine style, rather than trying to return to Zion.

Will there be civil war, a slave rebellion, or a schism of the CoGA where the clergy in Desnair ignore directives from Zion since it's not like Clyntahn can send anyone to punish them? (Other than the inquisitors already in Desnair, and they are mortal)

Tune in and see. Desnair is in for some "interesting times!"

McGuiness wrote:I spent a couple of hours writing a major analysis of post - AoS Desnair, and the internet ate it. So a quick summary:

Northern Desnair at least has lost a large number of its nobility, although many of those may have been second or third sons, for example, so there may or may not be a bunch of inheritance issues about to crop up. There certainly will be some, and if the problem is widespread enough, given that Desnair practices slavery...

Desnair will be completely out of the war in a few months, once the Haarahld VIIs arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar and more ironclads arrive to patrol the Gulf of Jahras and the eastern coast of Desnair. The road through North Watch has already been cut in six places, so no new army is going to march out of Desnair during this war.

All of the new weapons, artillery, rifles, etc. were sent with the AoS. The church is in no position to pay to replace those weapons and outfit another army, and Desnair's nobles aren't anxious to feed themselves into the Siddarmarkan meat grinder again. Plus Desnair will be cut off from easy communication from Zion and for the first time has the opportunity to go its own way as far as the CoGA is concerned. Vicars who happen to be visiting their sees in Desnair may find it more to their liking to set up permanent residence and live in fine style, rather than trying to return to Zion.

Will there be civil war, a slave rebellion, or a schism of the CoGA where the clergy in Desnair ignore directives from Zion since it's not like Clyntahn can send anyone to punish them? (Other than the inquisitors already in Desnair, and they are mortal)

Tune in and see. Desnair is in for some "interesting times!"

Desnair and Harchong are going to be the two places where I expect the inquisition to strike a devil's bargain with the secular powers that be: You scratch our backs; we'll scratch yours. In other words, you allow us to enforce COGA orthodoxy in your realm and we will serve as your secret police to keep you in power.

Don