V-E Day and some Notes regarding the Solarian League

First, let us all recognized that today is the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII in Europe (the Japanese did not surrender until September 1945).

The thing to note is in those 70 years, there has not been a war between any of the "Great Powers", and this may be the longest stretch of peace that Europe (and for that matter, Russia and China) have ever experienced.

That is not saying it has been all peaceful; Russia in Afghaistan, the Falklands War, the coalition in Iraq, some damn-fool thing in the Balkans, not to mention the slaughters in Cambodia, Zaire and Rwanda. (Nor do I forget Korea or Vietnam)

But it is wars between the major powers that can and have caused the greatest number of deaths and destruction in history and those wars are not occuring. For an example, on 1 July 1915, 19,000 British soldiers were killed and 38,000 wounded on the Somme...in one day. I doubt all of Europe's major powers taken together from the English channel to the Russian border, have suffered that many losses in the past 70 years. Russia may have suffered more than most, but still it pales in comparison to the 1.2M killed and wounded at Stalingrad.

So despite ourselves, it appears we have figured out (or at least been terrorized by the threat of thermonuclear conflict) to have found a measure of peace--at least as far as Great Power wars go.

Now, as to how this bears on the Honorverse. Where we can stand amazed at 70 years with no outbreak of Great Power conflicts, the Solarian League has gone centuries without these conflicts. Oh, admittedly, there are neobarbs 'out there' beating on each other, and the occasional revolt on Verge planets that Frontier Fleet/OFS need to 'intervene' in, but for most of the trillions of citizens in the League, war is something of the distant past and they may hardly be able to conceive of such a thing as war engulfing their worlds.

But now....

How will they feel? How will they react? What is the mindset of a population that (unlike the manties and Havenites) really have no conception of what war costs, in lives and treasure?

I think that mindset (which will also affect the planetary leaders, who, after all, have no expeience in being 'war' leaders) is going to be critical on how this plays out in the Core and Shell systems.

Becauae I think rather than rallying to the SL, most of them will be scared s******* of the consequences and will do most anything to avoid it and try to find a way to 'keep the peace.'

Which the GA (and for that matter, the MAlignment) will exploit ruthlessly.

We shall see, eventually.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

Memories to SSGT John Hutchinson, 1908-2001 (Dad)

Excellent Post and Questions. Perhaps going centuries without a major war has numbed the population and leadership of the Sollie League. Things have been too good for too long?

This might explain why the Sollie Leadership AND the military responded the way they did. They had no brain stem memories or instincts on how bad real total war in fact is.

Even after a couple of disasterous defeats of Frontier and Battle Fleet at the hands of the Manties, they STILL can not get a grip on how things really are in the mud of the trenches.

So ... the Sollie Leadership continues with what only they know to be true, even though it is a receipt for continued disaster? Kinda like the Japanese plan in WW2 in the Pacific?

Perhaps the next books in the series will share with us how bad things must get in the Sollie League before they wake up and understand what is happening to them? We will see.

Just me. HB of CJ (old coot)

Hutch wrote:So despite ourselves, it appears we have figured out (or at least been terrorized by the threat of thermonuclear conflict) to have found a measure of peace--at least as far as Great Power wars go.

Now, as to how this bears on the Honorverse. Where we can stand amazed at 70 years with no outbreak of Great Power conflicts, the Solarian League has gone centuries without these conflicts. Oh, admittedly, there are neobarbs 'out there' beating on each other, and the occasional revolt on Verge planets that Frontier Fleet/OFS need to 'intervene' in, but for most of the trillions of citizens in the League, war is something of the distant past and they may hardly be able to conceive of such a thing as war engulfing their worlds.

But now....

How will they feel? How will they react? What is the mindset of a population that (unlike the manties and Havenites) really have no conception of what war costs, in lives and treasure?

I think that mindset (which will also affect the planetary leaders, who, after all, have no expeience in being 'war' leaders) is going to be critical on how this plays out in the Core and Shell systems.

Becauae I think rather than rallying to the SL, most of them will be scared s******* of the consequences and will do most anything to avoid it and try to find a way to 'keep the peace.'

Which the GA (and for that matter, the MAlignment) will exploit ruthlessly.

We shall see, eventually.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

Memories to SSGT John Hutchinson, 1908-2001 (Dad)

I imagine someone, somewhere will feel some urge to rally to the Solarian League. It's what is supposed to keep this sort of thing from happening, after all. The SLN is the terror that keeps anyone from being a bogeyman to anyone under its umbrella - so long as you don't recognize that OFS, the Gendarmerie, the Solarian Marine Corps, Frontier Fleet, the transtellars, and large portions of the bureaucracy can be bogeymen themselves still, with the SLN's blessing or participation.

Core Worlds tend not to realize that, and people not only rejecting the League's benevolence but actually curbstomping the SLN is a horrible, horrible wake-up call. The only people who will remain rallied to the League are those who will refuse ever to see that curbstomping and those who think that no alternative to the League as it is is conceivable.

Otherwise, it's a situation in which the counterpart of nuclear terror is gone and the chief nominal patron of being civilized instead of warlords - the Solarian League - is discredited and defanged. I say "nominal patron", because the League's bureaucracy has been a part of the problem in too many cases, and the role Manticore particularly has had in keeping human space civilized - suppressing piracy and the slave trade, shipping, advancing interstellar and admiralty law, and finance - isn't sufficiently recognized in Solarian space yet.

We do still "enjoy" the umbrella of nuclear terror. Proliferation of nuclear weapons among states with governments not bent on bringing on the apocalypse means that sort of security for other states. But we've also seen plenty of wars short of the to-the-death major power clashes, more dangerous non-state powers, and we live with the threat of nuclear or biological weapons getting into the hands of state or non-state powers that either are too diffuse to fear nuclear retaliation, or are content to bring on the apocalypse.

The Honorverse isn't in that position now. The SLN isn't the nuclear terror anymore, and nobody else is either. There's still the consensual and traditional resistance to Eridani Edict violations, even if the SLN isn't entirely credible as an enforcer of it and the Grand Alliance isn't (perhaps, yet) widely counted on to fill that role either. So there's little planet-busting terror either.

They've got nothing but disinterest in having major wars preventing those major wars right now, and there's one going on already, so long as the League persists. Civilization seems to be a stronger habit in the Honorverse than on Earth in 2015 - we would regard EE violations as a routine measure of war and expect to have wars limited by the credible threat of committing them by either side if things go badly. (Alas, the Honorverse seems no more intolerant of smaller barbarities like piracy and slavery than we are: out of sight, out of mind.)

Maybe that disinterest in having major wars will encourage people to replace the League as a peacekeeping mechanism sooner rather than later. The Renaissance Factor is already prepared to assume that role, albeit for their own purposes. The Grand Alliance under the Harrington Doctrine aims at it too, through the creation of a host of bilateral defense agreements with each of the League successor states. I'm sure similar ideas will occur to any far-sighted sorts who aren't the spiritual successors to Warnecki. Whether they will pull it off - any of them - or how soon, it's too soon to tell, and I'm sure some subtle warlords will, like the Alignment, try to wear a peace-loving statesman's face.

I actually see it as being akin to the fall of the Roman Empire. The last time Italy had been invaded by barbarians was during the twilight of the Roman Republic (around 100 BC). There had been some disturbances caused by barbarian tribes at the outskirts of the empire but no one had dared attack Italy and Rome. That changed in 410 AD when the Visigoths (many of whom had been trained in Roman battle tactics and had Roman equipment). That is the situation the SL is facing. They have not adjusted to how weak they have become (still seeing themselves as the leading power who can do whatever they want) and can't accept that the NeoBarbs have caught up technologically and militarily (often with a leg up from the SL themselves). I think, as with the Western Roman Empire, no one will adjust to the shift until it is too late.

Hutch wrote:First, let us all recognized that today is the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII in Europe (the Japanese did not surrender until September 1945).

The thing to note is in those 70 years, there has not been a war between any of the "Great Powers", and this may be the longest stretch of peace that Europe (and for that matter, Russia and China) have ever experienced.

That is not saying it has been all peaceful; Russia in Afghaistan, the Falklands War, the coalition in Iraq, some damn-fool thing in the Balkans, not to mention the slaughters in Cambodia, Zaire and Rwanda. (Nor do I forget Korea or Vietnam)

But it is wars between the major powers that can and have caused the greatest number of deaths and destruction in history and those wars are not occuring. For an example, on 1 July 1915, 19,000 British soldiers were killed and 38,000 wounded on the Somme...in one day. I doubt all of Europe's major powers taken together from the English channel to the Russian border, have suffered that many losses in the past 70 years. Russia may have suffered more than most, but still it pales in comparison to the 1.2M killed and wounded at Stalingrad.

So despite ourselves, it appears we have figured out (or at least been terrorized by the threat of thermonuclear conflict) to have found a measure of peace--at least as far as Great Power wars go.

Now, as to how this bears on the Honorverse. Where we can stand amazed at 70 years with no outbreak of Great Power conflicts, the Solarian League has gone centuries without these conflicts. Oh, admittedly, there are neobarbs 'out there' beating on each other, and the occasional revolt on Verge planets that Frontier Fleet/OFS need to 'intervene' in, but for most of the trillions of citizens in the League, war is something of the distant past and they may hardly be able to conceive of such a thing as war engulfing their worlds.

But now....

How will they feel? How will they react? What is the mindset of a population that (unlike the manties and Havenites) really have no conception of what war costs, in lives and treasure?

I think that mindset (which will also affect the planetary leaders, who, after all, have no expeience in being 'war' leaders) is going to be critical on how this plays out in the Core and Shell systems.

Becauae I think rather than rallying to the SL, most of them will be scared s******* of the consequences and will do most anything to avoid it and try to find a way to 'keep the peace.'

Which the GA (and for that matter, the MAlignment) will exploit ruthlessly.

We shall see, eventually.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

Memories to SSGT John Hutchinson, 1908-2001 (Dad)

Fall of the Roman empire?

you know that works very well. Fits perfectly with the Mandarins and Solly Flag officers opinions of anyone outside the league. (outside the core really).

he Mandarins and Solly Flag officers opinions of anyone outside the league. (outside the core really)

And for most of the Flags, anyone outside of BF.

JeffEngel wrote:"Hutch"]So despite ourselves, it appears we have figured out (or at least been terrorized by the threat of thermonuclear conflict) to have found a measure of peace--at least as far as Great Power wars go.

Now, as to how this bears on the Honorverse. Where we can stand amazed at 70 years with no outbreak of Great Power conflicts, the Solarian League has gone centuries without these conflicts. Oh, admittedly, there are neobarbs 'out there' beating on each other, and the occasional revolt on Verge planets that Frontier Fleet/OFS need to 'intervene' in, but for most of the trillions of citizens in the League, war is something of the distant past and they may hardly be able to conceive of such a thing as war engulfing their worlds.

But now....

How will they feel? How will they react? What is the mindset of a population that (unlike the manties and Havenites) really have no conception of what war costs, in lives and treasure?

I think that mindset (which will also affect the planetary leaders, who, after all, have no expeience in being 'war' leaders) is going to be critical on how this plays out in the Core and Shell systems.

Becauae I think rather than rallying to the SL, most of them will be scared s******* of the consequences and will do most anything to avoid it and try to find a way to 'keep the peace.'

Which the GA (and for that matter, the MAlignment) will exploit ruthlessly.

We shall see, eventually.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

Memories to SSGT John Hutchinson, 1908-2001 (Dad)

I imagine someone, somewhere will feel some urge to rally to the Solarian League. It's what is supposed to keep this sort of thing from happening, after all. The SLN is the terror that keeps anyone from being a bogeyman to anyone under its umbrella - so long as you don't recognize that OFS, the Gendarmerie, the Solarian Marine Corps, Frontier Fleet, the transtellars, and large portions of the bureaucracy can be bogeymen themselves still, with the SLN's blessing or participation.

Core Worlds tend not to realize that, and people not only rejecting the League's benevolence but actually curbstomping the SLN is a horrible, horrible wake-up call. The only people who will remain rallied to the League are those who will refuse ever to see that curbstomping and those who think that no alternative to the League as it is is conceivable.

Otherwise, it's a situation in which the counterpart of nuclear terror is gone and the chief nominal patron of being civilized instead of warlords - the Solarian League - is discredited and defanged. I say "nominal patron", because the League's bureaucracy has been a part of the problem in too many cases, and the role Manticore particularly has had in keeping human space civilized - suppressing piracy and the slave trade, shipping, advancing interstellar and admiralty law, and finance - isn't sufficiently recognized in Solarian space yet.

We do still "enjoy" the umbrella of nuclear terror. Proliferation of nuclear weapons among states with governments not bent on bringing on the apocalypse means that sort of security for other states. But we've also seen plenty of wars short of the to-the-death major power clashes, more dangerous non-state powers, and we live with the threat of nuclear or biological weapons getting into the hands of state or non-state powers that either are too diffuse to fear nuclear retaliation, or are content to bring on the apocalypse.

The Honorverse isn't in that position now. The SLN isn't the nuclear terror anymore, and nobody else is either. There's still the consensual and traditional resistance to Eridani Edict violations, even if the SLN isn't entirely credible as an enforcer of it and the Grand Alliance isn't (perhaps, yet) widely counted on to fill that role either. So there's little planet-busting terror either.

They've got nothing but disinterest in having major wars preventing those major wars right now, and there's one going on already, so long as the League persists. Civilization seems to be a stronger habit in the Honorverse than on Earth in 2015 - we would regard EE violations as a routine measure of war and expect to have wars limited by the credible threat of committing them by either side if things go badly. (Alas, the Honorverse seems no more intolerant of smaller barbarities like piracy and slavery than we are: out of sight, out of mind.)

Maybe that disinterest in having major wars will encourage people to replace the League as a peacekeeping mechanism sooner rather than later. The Renaissance Factor is already prepared to assume that role, albeit for their own purposes. The Grand Alliance under the Harrington Doctrine aims at it too, through the creation of a host of bilateral defense agreements with each of the League successor states. I'm sure similar ideas will occur to any far-sighted sorts who aren't the spiritual successors to Warnecki. Whether they will pull it off - any of them - or how soon, it's too soon to tell, and I'm sure some subtle warlords will, like the Alignment, try to wear a peace-loving statesman's face.[/quote]


-------------

Hutch / Jeff --

Good comments all. Keep in mind that since WWII, NATO / West and Warsaw Pact / USSR-East have had multiple "proxy-wars" -- Korea / SE Asia / Arab-Israeli / India-Pakistan et alia, all had allies / quasi-allies / client states against each other, often with "advisers" heavily involved, pitting equipment and tactics against each other.

The SL has not had that, other than a SLN light cruiser occasionally dropping kinetic strikes on "rebels" to quell civil unrest for an OFS client.

Another parallel may be 1988-1993 Eastern Europe -- The Warsaw Pact fell apart prior to the fall of the Soviets returning the USSR into Russia.
Possibly similar to Verge and Shell Sectors opting for independence before the inner Core.

And yes, some of the Malign members will likely take the opportunity to break off as "new, independent sectors", especially if the Darius System / Sector is not found first.

-- Stewart