Isilith wrote:Randomiser wrote:I don't really see the Allies conquering and garrisoning the whole of the Temple Lands so it won't happen that way. Perhaps the new vicarate will pass a self-denying ordinance, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Since Cayleb is not going to end up Emperor of Safehold I think there will be lots of messy bits around the edges of any settlement and the Temple Lands may well be one of them
Maybe not in THIS war. If not, it will mostly be because Siddarmark and the EoC are busy garrisoning other annexed lands.
It seems a segment of posters here want Siddarmark and the EoC to be Utopian like states with saintly rulers. Which really is out of touch with even the reality that RFC has created in his stories.
In Safeholds history, when Siddarmark was attacked they took PLENTY of land from Desnair. Not only that, they have had wars of conquest. As the books state that "most" of their expansion was more diplomatic in nature. Most is clearly implying that there was expansion at sword point.
Certainly some. But a lot of what they seem to have taken from Desnair, judging from the condition of the South March, was near-empty land. It does not establish much of a tradition of imposing Siddarmarkan rule on large numbers of people deeply hostile to it.
That "near-saintliness" you're reading isn't so much that as a combination of two major factors. First, population relative to the mainland in the Out Islands is very, very limited. Throwing around the easy annexation of Silkiah whether they like it or not, for instance, seems to ignore the fact that the population of Silkiah is about equal to that of Charis, Chisholm, and Corisande combined. If they could count on a reasonably legitimate local government with its own intact, loyal police and military forces around to maintain order, as in Corisande, they could count on a garrison for Silkiah - alone - perhaps only triple the garrison they needed in Corisande. And double that for Dohlar, under the same assumption. More than double that for Desnair, if you'd like to occupy that quarter of a continent. And carry on for every other mainland realm you'd like under Allied boots. But do remember that practically-friendly-state assumption, and be sure to sell it for each one of those states.
The other major and related factor is that Charis is looking to annex on a basis of legitimacy and near-term full participation in the Empire, and Siddarmark's democratic traditions have similar implications. These are not states that annex much of anything if they're not willing to bet that the annexees will tolerate it and even approve soon. They can work up other relationships for areas where they can't bet on that. All they really need is to separate states that are enemies essentially due to the Church from the Church, and hold areas that they need to use to conduct the war.
Let's look at the EoC, someone go tell Corisande, Emerald, and Tarot that the great and noble Charis won't annex their lands if they lose their war of conquest against them. That Charis found a way to diplomatically annex Emerald and Tarot doesn't change the fact that they were GOING TO annex them by the sword... and they DID annex Corisande by the sword. Again, it was fortunate that they found a way to move them from conquered to member-in-good-standing. But they were part of Charis anyway, by conquest.
Emerald was going to wait til they found an army somewhere for conquest, if not for an alternative arrangement. Zebediah would have been conquered and occupied, if not for Nahrmahn's connections to have the Grand Duke betray Corisande and invite Charis in. You didn't list Chisholm, presumably because conquering it would have been totally ludicrous and because the diplomatic option there was far and away Plan A. And it wasn't so much "fortunate" that they managed a good, friendly-ish deal with Corisande after whomping or isolating their army and surrounding Manchyr - it was simply vital, if they were to be able to support Siddarmark later without having practically all Chisholm's army tied up keeping Corisande and Chisholm itself under control.
Thanks to that diplomatic option in Tarot, Emerald, Chisholm, and Zebediah - and a diplomatic resolution prepared by military activity in Corisande - the Empire has an army that can fight mainland ones - when they maintain mobility and can use their force multipliers very well. They're doing that while occupying no hostile territory. If they have to conduct such occupations, they will lose huge portions of that field army.
The silk glove over the iron fist isn't particularly a matter of them being the good guys, or tremendous virtue on the part of Charisian or Siddarmark leaders. It's a fundamental part of how they have to deal with people without having swords over their heads all the time, so they can point the swords at real, necessary, current enemies.
So, now we have reminded everyone that both Siddarmark and the EoC are both willing to annex territory, at swordpoint. Which means that the Border States/Harchong/Desnair/Silkiah/Dohlar should be very nervous. Especially the Border States.
Not only is this not a bad thing, but it is actually a good thing. Taking territory will reduce the Go4's strength and increase their strength.
It depends on what the territory is like and how the residents feel about you. Afghanistan, for instance, wasn't a territory that served the Soviet Union well, and occupying Spain didn't make for a net benefit for Napoleon. And when the British played a large role in ushering France out of Spain, they didn't propose to claim it for themselves. They didn't need to, and they'd have the same Spaniards who played the remaining role in that liberation coming for them and making Spain just as useless to them, only more so, because Britain had even fewer soldiers to play cop.
That's Charis' position, and with Siddarmark so reduced by civil war, it's their position right now too.
Another thing, the stronger Siddarmark and the EoC are, and the more territory they control ( which is why I advocate the EoC claiming the islands and very sparsely populated lands ), the easier it will be to lay the groundwork for a unified government. A Safholdian "Terran Federation" world government. Which then would create Safehold colony worlds under the aegis of that government.
Setting the groundwork for a wold government is going to be almost as important as breaking the proscriptions.
They have had a world government - really, that's what the Church was. It just had private contractors for some local police work - call them emperors, kings, princes, or lords protector. What happened in Charis (and under Charis' influence, in Emerald, Chisholm, and Tarot, and under its demand in Corisande) was the private police contractor going rogue and the local portion of the world government going along with the rebellion.
Relegitimizing a world government is a project now, along with re-integrating one, someday. Demonstrating that the rebel Empire of Charis and Republic of Siddarmark can produce and conduct good government, in association with their churches, is a much bigger part of that than spreading that government back all over Safehold, and it will be compromised if they turn into ravenous conquistadors. That's not a recommendation to be utter pacificists, but it does mean aiming at resolutions that reconcile military and strategic needs with being tolerable to the people you end up governing, however you do end up governing them.
Those strategic and military needs themselves may count against claiming some islands, with little or no population, if the benefits to be had are outweighed by vulnerability - or when they end up being outweighed after all the investment it'd take to reduce the vulnerability enough. And the more political aspects will be more relevant as the population of the proposed annexed territory goes up.
Sometimes, for some places, it will be quite enough to bring the locals into the Charisian sphere of influence - buying and selling with Charis and Siddarmark and not supporting attacks on either. It's working that way for the Raven Lands at least, probably for the Duchy of Fallos, and intermittently on islands in the Gulf of Dohlar. That may well work for Silkiah at least, and if Cayleb and Sharleyan play their cards right, it may well work out in Delferahk, South Harchong, and Dohlar too - before getting into the really optimistic possibilities.