How will it work out in Desnair?

PeterZ wrote:

Isilith wrote:snip

Am I the only one that thinks the EoC is more of a natural fit for a union with Silkiah?

You might well be.

Controling and expanded Salthar Canal is important. Even the current canal will allow Charis improve logistics into the Gulf of Dohlar. Beyond that access, Charis has no desire to commit occupation troops to the mainland. Those troops would be needed to man naval bases all around the Howard and Haven.

Siddermark on the other hand has a pretty important reason to extend its borders south of Silkiah. By taking the Gulf of Jahras, its southern bays and the cities located on the shores of those bays, Siddermark will force Desnair to fight the fight the first stages of any invasion well away from any critical transport routes. Siddermark has the population to deploy enough occupation troops secure the southern shore of the Gulf of Jahras.

Whether Siddermark calls that occupied area a protectorate or absorbs it into Siddermark proper depends on how the folks in the area take to Siddermarkian rule. I don't see Silkiah taking responsibility for securing that area. They don't have an established military capable enough to pull that off right away. If they don't, then having Siddermark secure an occupied area that Silkiah governs seems too convoluted a system to work well. The same logic applies to Charis.

We don't know as much as we would want for reasonably secure speculation about what Silkiah may want for its political future and borders. If North Watch - or at any rate, enough of it to get to the shortest part of the isthmus, secure both sides of the Salthar Canal, and have the whole northern shore of the Gulf of Jahras - would be something Silkiah would want to govern and could secure, then letting it take a chunk of Desnair that way could serve Charis' transport needs and Siddarmark's defensive ones without burdening Silkiah in a way to spoil relations. That all assumes, still, a Silkiah that's a cheerful ally and friend to Charis and Siddarmark but still independent.

Another possibility, if that region of North Watch would be something Silkiah either would not care to annex or could not reasonably secure against Desnair, would be annexation of it by Siddarmark. It'd be a discontinuous chunk of Siddarmark, accessed by sea or through a (presumably friendly) Silkiah, and while that's inconvenient, it may be workable.

Much of it is moot if Silkiah would like to become a part or nearly a part of Siddarmark. It may still be relevant if Silkiah wants to become a part or nearly a part of Charis, since Charis probably wouldn't be thrilled to annex or occupy that area and Silkiah may still not care to. But it'd be just as secure for Siddarmark if they did - access by sea with Charis as an ally is fine stuff.

I think Silkiah and Dohlar both can do very, very well in trade along the Salthar Canal and near it for transshipment from the Empire to the western shores of Haven and Howard. It's a carrot that Silkiah is missing after the clamp down on Charisian smuggling, and it would do great things for re-orienting Dohlar from an enemy and trade rival to a trade partner and friendly manufacturing rival. That just calls for Silkiah to want to and be allowed to be friendly with Charis - beyond that, other considerations can be satisfied.

BobG wrote:While I see some of the simularities you observe, I think the more important factors are the loss of 200,000+ members of the upper class/nobility, and the simultaneous loss of an effective military.

The Desnairians may be shaking in their boots, worrying about a Charisian invasion - no matter how unrealistic that may be in the short term. They probably don't have much in the way of a remaining cavalry army, not that it would help. They may well be forced to conscript an army of serfs, and with the way they treat serfs, all it will take is for one "disciplinary evert" to go really, really bad and they will have a spontaneous revolt on their hands. Serfs, trained with rifles, against a nobility used to giving out harsh treatment without the backup of a major military force, and still with the mindset that cavalry always trumps infantry, could be a conditions for starting a viable revolt. And if the nobility tries to pit other conscripts against the rebellious troops, that could in turn lead to a larger rebellion.

In my imagination, it would start out as an isolated event, but would quickly spread, pitting the remaining cavalry against the serf infantry - and it might take very little for the serfs to rebel against the Inquisition as well. With a little propaganda on the bishops and archbishops from Ninian's collection thrown in, it could spread like wildfire.

-- Bob G

Suppose Desnair goes the way of 1917 Russia. Will South Harchong sit idly by as a populist rebellion against the established hierarchy prospers next door? I doubt it. Will Siddermark support a Desnairi rebellion? They might support the rebellion materially, but with troops? Again, I doubt it. There will simply be too many areas demanding RSA troops for the idea of sending troops into Desnair to be attractive. The same logic applies to Charis and Charis has fewer troops to commit to begin with.

The complicated morass of conflicting motives that will arise in a Desnairi civil war will be fun to read about and I suppose to write about. Aristos either aligning with SH against the Desnairi populace in an effort to secure their position, aristos aligning with one of more factions of the Desnairi Empire and the Desnairi populace supported by Charis and Siddermark. Unless the populace had that support, the civil war would get crushed quickly.

That conflict would be a decades long nightmare.

A few points. The EoC has abotu 350K soldiers in Siddarmark, and their tactics and equipment make them worth 3-4 times their number.

Now, the books state their recruitment in Chisholm is still steady, not like they would want, but keeping them up to date.

Now, as far as new soldiers... there is a huge influx of Zebedians that are just now being enlisted and trained. Add to that the new enthusiasm in Corisande... As well as recruiting just taking off in Emerald and Tarot. That means the EoC put their current army in the field mostly from the resources of Chisholm and some from Charis... That means recruiting is just picking up in the REST of the empire. Corisande and Zebediah are worth 4-500K troops alone, once trained and equiped.

Now, on to the Silkiah discussion I am in love with.

I don't say that the EoC should brutally conquer Silkiah, I said they should use the carrot/stick diplomacy to include them in the EoC. As that would benefit both peoples the most. Now, will the nobility of Silkiah see it that way? Don't know, but if they don't, I DO see Siddarmark occupying them... maybe a joint occupation with the EoC... but either way, Silkiah is joining the alliance.

As far as military obligations, if Silkian comes over on their own, they would only have to help the EoC hold the northern strip of North Watch, along the mountain gaps... easily done.

Kytheros wrote:

Philip Stanley wrote:Compare the situation in Desnair to that in Russia after their major defeats by the Germans at the beginning of WWI. There's even a made to order democratic movement already in place - the Levelers. The situation is very similar.

Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky, and the other Socialist and Communist leaders were not from the nobility, but they led a movement that took over a whole country.

I think my scenario is certainly very possible. I just hope RFC agrees.

Philip Stanley

BobG wrote:While I see some of the simularities you observe, I think the more important factors are the loss of 200,000+ members of the upper class/nobility, and the simultaneous loss of an effective military.

The Desnairians may be shaking in their boots, worrying about a Charisian invasion - no matter how unrealistic that may be in the short term. They probably don't have much in the way of a remaining cavalry army, not that it would help. They may well be forced to conscript an army of serfs, and with the way they treat serfs, all it will take is for one "disciplinary evert" to go really, really bad and they will have a spontaneous revolt on their hands. Serfs, trained with rifles, against a nobility used to giving out harsh treatment without the backup of a major military force, and still with the mindset that cavalry always trumps infantry, could be a conditions for starting a viable revolt. And if the nobility tries to pit other conscripts against the rebellious troops, that could in turn lead to a larger rebellion.

In my imagination, it would start out as an isolated event, but would quickly spread, pitting the remaining cavalry against the serf infantry - and it might take very little for the serfs to rebel against the Inquisition as well. With a little propaganda on the bishops and archbishops from Ninian's collection thrown in, it could spread like wildfire.

-- Bob G

n7axw wrote:This is an interesting scenario. If, as some of us anticipate, Howard is isolated from the Havens, where are the serfs going to get all those rifles to be trained with? Desnair's modern weaponry was almost all lost with Harless and Desnair has only a limited ability to manufacture more...

Don

Snippet spoiler.


























There are those captured Charisian rifles. Sure, nowhere near enough for a huge army, but it'd be a head start towards (re-)building a modernized army. Producing replacement ammo is probably going to be easier than copying the rifles, once you have the ammo figured out.
Snippet says 5k M96 rifles, almost 100 3-inch mortars, 2 entire batteries of 4-inch rifled field guns, and "among other things", were in the captured cargoes.

This is true. But quite frankly, there isn't a shred of textev anywhere to tell us where those rifles, etc. ended up. So there is no way to know who will be the beneficiary.

As for the M96s and the ammo, I would say that it would be a bit more likely that at least the ammo if not the weapon can be duplicated. In the hands of Desnairians? I think the possibility is unlikely.

Don

n7axw wrote:

This is true. But quite frankly, there isn't a shred of textev anywhere to tell us where those rifles, etc. ended up. So there is no way to know who will be the beneficiary.

As for the M96s and the ammo, I would say that it would be a bit more likely that at least the ammo if not the weapon can be duplicated. In the hands of Desnairians? I think the possibility is unlikely.

Don

I don't think ANY of the Go4 aligned countries can reproduce them.

Based on the fact that they couldn't make the Mandahryns, at least not in worthwhile numbers OR cost... I say there is about zero chance they could make the M96's, and even less of a chance that they can reproduce the ammo. They would have to come up with the tools, and a standard system of measurements, before they can even think about reproducing them.

Honestly, it would be unbelievable if they could "reproduce" the M96 and the ammo in time to use in THIS war.

Isilith wrote:

n7axw wrote:

This is true. But quite frankly, there isn't a shred of textev anywhere to tell us where those rifles, etc. ended up. So there is no way to know who will be the beneficiary.

As for the M96s and the ammo, I would say that it would be a bit more likely that at least the ammo if not the weapon can be duplicated. In the hands of Desnairians? I think the possibility is unlikely.

Don

I don't think ANY of the Go4 aligned countries can reproduce them.

Based on the fact that they couldn't make the Mandahryns, at least not in worthwhile numbers OR cost... I say there is about zero chance they could make the M96's, and even less of a chance that they can reproduce the ammo. They would have to come up with the tools, and a standard system of measurements, before they can even think about reproducing them.

Honestly, it would be unbelievable if they could "reproduce" the M96 and the ammo in time to use in THIS war.

Ammo should be technically doable ... once they figure out how it's made. Admittedly, probably not in very large quantities, but the necessary precision is doable, though I agree with n7axw that Desnair is probably not the best suited Go4-aligned country for it.

The only truly complicated part in doing the ammo is figuring out the percussion cap, which is something that progress has been made on. Next to that would be the right alloy mixture.
As far as sizing tolerances go - they could probably half-ass it with using some of the original ammo as the base for each facility producing replacement ammo, in lieu of a proper standardization of measurements.

Actually in my previous post, I had intended to say that the Dohlarans would have the best shot at reproducing the ammo if not the rifles themselves. But that guy in the Temple Lands, Brother Lynchyn (sp) is really pretty sharp.

Actually, once the inquisition is out of the way, both Dohlar and the Temple Lands will probably surge out ahead of the other COGA countries. I would expect SH to be next with NH and Desnair competing for tail end charlie...

Don

The privateer fleet of desnair will guarantee when the warfleet of the church is dealt with, the harbours and port cities will suffer. Their capital is one such city, while their ships might be able to flee, the cost of such devestation will pushg their already strained economy beyond any limit.

SYED wrote:The privateer fleet of desnair will guarantee when the warfleet of the church is dealt with, the harbours and port cities will suffer. Their capital is one such city, while their ships might be able to flee, the cost of such devestation will pushg their already strained economy beyond any limit.

Maybe. But privateering has been a part of the war all along. I'm sure you remember that Charisian privateers swept the seas of their enemies commerce, thus setting the example for the Desnairians.

So far the ICN has restricted itself to burning out the nests where the privateers are being built. I don't see that changing unless privateers continue to be an issue after the war is over.

Don

I'm rather curious about just where the notion of quantities of ammunition being captured along with the M96s came from.

Last I looked, the Charisians hadn't run mad, and only a madman ships ammunition on anything but dedicated transport or handles it at any but dedicated facilities before it gets to the TO. Even then ammo never meets weapon until both are put in the hands of the end user - immediately before intended use.

n7axw wrote:Actually in my previous post, I had intended to say that the Dohlarans would have the best shot at reproducing the ammo if not the rifles themselves. But that guy in the Temple Lands, Brother Lynchyn (sp) is really pretty sharp.

Actually, once the inquisition is out of the way, both Dohlar and the Temple Lands will probably surge out ahead of the other COGA countries. I would expect SH to be next with NH and Desnair competing for tail end charlie...

Don