How will it work out in Desnair?

Isilith wrote:

n7axw wrote:
We were talking about Silkiah, which prior to the war was demilitarzed, that is, guilty of attacking no one, couldn't have attacked anyone because it lacked the means. The question is how best to assure security for Silkiah and its people.

You and I and Jeff have disagreed. Now we will see how RFC plays it out.

Don

They were demilitarized, but that restriction was lifted for the Jihad, and their factories are actively supporting the enemies of Siddarmark and the EoC.

That said, I think Sidd/EoC can reach a mostly diplomatic accommodation with Silkiah, though I am sure there will be some military engagements on their soil. Mainly because their canals have to be taken and denied to the enemies use.

And Chisholm, Corisande, Emerald and Tarot actively attacked Charis and look how that worked out for them!

Isilith wrote:

n7axw wrote:
We were talking about Silkiah, which prior to the war was demilitarzed, that is, guilty of attacking no one, couldn't have attacked anyone because it lacked the means. The question is how best to assure security for Silkiah and its people.

You and I and Jeff have disagreed. Now we will see how RFC plays it out.

Don

They were demilitarized, but that restriction was lifted for the Jihad, and their factories are actively supporting the enemies of Siddarmark and the EoC.

That said, I think Sidd/EoC can reach a mostly diplomatic accommodation with Silkiah, though I am sure there will be some military engagements on their soil. Mainly because their canals have to be taken and denied to the enemies use.

Yes, that restriction was lifted. However, as far as we know,, the closest they actually got to participating in the Jihad has been to manufacture some rifles for the COGA armies.

Don

Philip Stanley wrote:Compare the situation in Desnair to that in Russia after their major defeats by the Germans at the beginning of WWI. There's even a made to order democratic movement already in place - the Levelers. The situation is very similar.

Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky, and the other Socialist and Communist leaders were not from the nobility, but they led a movement that took over a whole country.

I think my scenario is certainly very possible. I just hope RFC agrees.

Philip Stanley

While I see some of the simularities you observe, I think the more important factors are the loss of 200,000+ members of the upper class/nobility, and the simultaneous loss of an effective military.

The Desnairians may be shaking in their boots, worrying about a Charisian invasion - no matter how unrealistic that may be in the short term. They probably don't have much in the way of a remaining cavalry army, not that it would help. They may well be forced to conscript an army of serfs, and with the way they treat serfs, all it will take is for one "disciplinary evert" to go really, really bad and they will have a spontaneous revolt on their hands. Serfs, trained with rifles, against a nobility used to giving out harsh treatment without the backup of a major military force, and still with the mindset that cavalry always trumps infantry, could be a conditions for starting a viable revolt. And if the nobility tries to pit other conscripts against the rebellious troops, that could in turn lead to a larger rebellion.

In my imagination, it would start out as an isolated event, but would quickly spread, pitting the remaining cavalry against the serf infantry - and it might take very little for the serfs to rebel against the Inquisition as well. With a little propaganda on the bishops and archbishops from Ninian's collection thrown in, it could spread like wildfire.

-- Bob G

SIlkiah was willing to register ships and pull in huge revenues, so they could be open to other such ventures.
The fees they could gain if they were able to build a true canal linking the oceans of the worlds. WHile be stuck with charisian influence, they would be free from desnair and rich.

Poorly?

BobG wrote:

Philip Stanley wrote:Compare the situation in Desnair to that in Russia after their major defeats by the Germans at the beginning of WWI. There's even a made to order democratic movement already in place - the Levelers. The situation is very similar.

Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky, and the other Socialist and Communist leaders were not from the nobility, but they led a movement that took over a whole country.

I think my scenario is certainly very possible. I just hope RFC agrees.

Philip Stanley

While I see some of the simularities you observe, I think the more important factors are the loss of 200,000+ members of the upper class/nobility, and the simultaneous loss of an effective military.

The Desnairians may be shaking in their boots, worrying about a Charisian invasion - no matter how unrealistic that may be in the short term. They probably don't have much in the way of a remaining cavalry army, not that it would help. They may well be forced to conscript an army of serfs, and with the way they treat serfs, all it will take is for one "disciplinary evert" to go really, really bad and they will have a spontaneous revolt on their hands. Serfs, trained with rifles, against a nobility used to giving out harsh treatment without the backup of a major military force, and still with the mindset that cavalry always trumps infantry, could be a conditions for starting a viable revolt. And if the nobility tries to pit other conscripts against the rebellious troops, that could in turn lead to a larger rebellion.

In my imagination, it would start out as an isolated event, but would quickly spread, pitting the remaining cavalry against the serf infantry - and it might take very little for the serfs to rebel against the Inquisition as well. With a little propaganda on the bishops and archbishops from Ninian's collection thrown in, it could spread like wildfire.

-- Bob G

This is an interesting scenario. If, as some of us anticipate, Howard is isolated from the Havens, where are the serfs going to get all those rifles to be trained with? Desnair's modern weaponry was almost all lost with Harless and Desnair has only a limited ability to manufacture more...

Don

Philip Stanley wrote:Compare the situation in Desnair to that in Russia after their major defeats by the Germans at the beginning of WWI. There's even a made to order democratic movement already in place - the Levelers. The situation is very similar.

Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky, and the other Socialist and Communist leaders were not from the nobility, but they led a movement that took over a whole country.

I think my scenario is certainly very possible. I just hope RFC agrees.

Philip Stanley

BobG wrote:While I see some of the simularities you observe, I think the more important factors are the loss of 200,000+ members of the upper class/nobility, and the simultaneous loss of an effective military.

The Desnairians may be shaking in their boots, worrying about a Charisian invasion - no matter how unrealistic that may be in the short term. They probably don't have much in the way of a remaining cavalry army, not that it would help. They may well be forced to conscript an army of serfs, and with the way they treat serfs, all it will take is for one "disciplinary evert" to go really, really bad and they will have a spontaneous revolt on their hands. Serfs, trained with rifles, against a nobility used to giving out harsh treatment without the backup of a major military force, and still with the mindset that cavalry always trumps infantry, could be a conditions for starting a viable revolt. And if the nobility tries to pit other conscripts against the rebellious troops, that could in turn lead to a larger rebellion.

In my imagination, it would start out as an isolated event, but would quickly spread, pitting the remaining cavalry against the serf infantry - and it might take very little for the serfs to rebel against the Inquisition as well. With a little propaganda on the bishops and archbishops from Ninian's collection thrown in, it could spread like wildfire.

-- Bob G

n7axw wrote:This is an interesting scenario. If, as some of us anticipate, Howard is isolated from the Havens, where are the serfs going to get all those rifles to be trained with? Desnair's modern weaponry was almost all lost with Harless and Desnair has only a limited ability to manufacture more...

Don

Snippet spoiler.


























There are those captured Charisian rifles. Sure, nowhere near enough for a huge army, but it'd be a head start towards (re-)building a modernized army. Producing replacement ammo is probably going to be easier than copying the rifles, once you have the ammo figured out.
Snippet says 5k M96 rifles, almost 100 3-inch mortars, 2 entire batteries of 4-inch rifled field guns, and "among other things", were in the captured cargoes.

When I postulated a Desnairian revolution in my original entry in this thread, and later compared the situation in Desnair to that in Russia during WWI, I neglected to also compare the disastrous defeat of the Desnairian navy in Iythria to the equally disastrous prewar defeat of the Russian navy by Japan at Tsu Shima. I still think the similiarities between the situations of Russia and Desnair are to great to ignore, and I'm still voting for a Desnairian revolution.

As to Silkiah, I would guess that ultimately Siddermark will probably annex the Grand Duchy, with or without their acquiescence. It would be a necessary self-protective step in gaining control over the land bridge between Haven and Howard. We don't know enough about the political and public sentiment in Silkiah to know for sure whether they would welcome such a step. The fact that they, like Siddermark, were conspiring to evade Clyntahn's anti-Charis blockade might indicate that they're probably a similar culthure and would fit right in.

Time, and the Celery Expressman, will tell

Philip Stanley

Philip Stanley wrote:When I postulated a Desnairian revolution in my original entry in this thread, and later compared the situation in Desnair to that in Russia during WWI, I neglected to also compare the disastrous defeat of the Desnairian navy in Iythria to the equally disastrous prewar defeat of the Russian navy by Japan at Tsu Shima. I still think the similiarities between the situations of Russia and Desnair are to great to ignore, and I'm still voting for a Desnairian revolution.

As to Silkiah, I would guess that ultimately Siddermark will probably annex the Grand Duchy, with or without their acquiescence. It would be a necessary self-protective step in gaining control over the land bridge between Haven and Howard. We don't know enough about the political and public sentiment in Silkiah to know for sure whether they would welcome such a step. The fact that they, like Siddermark, were conspiring to evade Clyntahn's anti-Charis blockade might indicate that they're probably a similar culthure and would fit right in.

Time, and the Celery Expressman, will tell

Philip Stanley

I can see Desnair going into revolution. Though that depends on how much of an army they have left at home. We speculated that they could/should have a large force still at home, but we won't know until the celery chaser lets us know.

I can see Siddarmark eying Silkiah, so I can't argue that they would be wanting them.

I just see Charis needing Silkiah more, and being able to OFFER Silkiah more. The control of that canal is almost an imperative for Charis. An EoC with Silkiah as a member is an even more dynamic economic monster. Plus, Siddarmark should be busy swallowing up the border states, like M&Ms.

Am I the only one that thinks the EoC is more of a natural fit for a union with Silkiah?

Isilith wrote:snip

Am I the only one that thinks the EoC is more of a natural fit for a union with Silkiah?

You might well be.

Controling and expanded Salthar Canal is important. Even the current canal will allow Charis improve logistics into the Gulf of Dohlar. Beyond that access, Charis has no desire to commit occupation troops to the mainland. Those troops would be needed to man naval bases all around the Howard and Haven.

Siddermark on the other hand has a pretty important reason to extend its borders south of Silkiah. By taking the Gulf of Jahras, its southern bays and the cities located on the shores of those bays, Siddermark will force Desnair to fight the fight the first stages of any invasion well away from any critical transport routes. Siddermark has the population to deploy enough occupation troops secure the southern shore of the Gulf of Jahras.

Whether Siddermark calls that occupied area a protectorate or absorbs it into Siddermark proper depends on how the folks in the area take to Siddermarkian rule. I don't see Silkiah taking responsibility for securing that area. They don't have an established military capable enough to pull that off right away. If they don't, then having Siddermark secure an occupied area that Silkiah governs seems too convoluted a system to work well. The same logic applies to Charis.