How will it work out in Desnair?

SYED wrote:It seems to me the northern most tip of desnair will end up in silkiah hands and that gulf upder the control of the imperium.
With such a loss of the military, they would need a fortune to replace it, and it would be difficult to keep unrest under control with limited man power and supplies.

Humm... What I find myself wondering is if Silkiah doesn't end up being another province of the Republic. Were I the Protector, I would want firm, permanent control of that land bridge between Howard and the Havens to prevent ill intentioned souls who might do bad things to the Republic from wandering north...

Don

n7axw wrote:

SYED wrote:It seems to me the northern most tip of desnair will end up in silkiah hands and that gulf upder the control of the imperium.
With such a loss of the military, they would need a fortune to replace it, and it would be difficult to keep unrest under control with limited man power and supplies.

Humm... What I find myself wondering is if Silkiah doesn't end up being another province of the Republic. Were I the Protector, I would want firm, permanent control of that land bridge between Howard and the Havens to prevent ill intentioned souls who might do bad things to the Republic from wandering north...

Don

I tend to see Silkiah in Charisian hands ( along with that northern strip of Desnair's North Watch.

I see Dohlar being a joint protectorate of EoC and the Republic. With the Republic swallowing up the border states, maybe one or both of the two easternmost provinces of Harchong.

Isilith wrote:

n7axw wrote:
Humm... What I find myself wondering is if Silkiah doesn't end up being another province of the Republic. Were I the Protector, I would want firm, permanent control of that land bridge between Howard and the Havens to prevent ill intentioned souls who might do bad things to the Republic from wandering north...

Don

I tend to see Silkiah in Charisian hands ( along with that northern strip of Desnair's North Watch.

I see Dohlar being a joint protectorate of EoC and the Republic. With the Republic swallowing up the border states, maybe one or both of the two easternmost provinces of Harchong.

Charis hasn't had much interest in putting anyone in the Empire that doesn't want to be there - with the exception of enemies that aren't going to stop being enemies any other way. And even then, Corisande got out of the war with an easy time of it and an "occupation" so light-handed that it'd be better described as a group of advisers for a transitional regime.

I see Silkiah ending up in Silkiahan hands. Siddarmark and Charis just need to see it so that it's not occupied by Desnair or taking orders from Zion anymore. A liberated Silkiah is likely to be leaning on Charis and Siddarmark to remain free, but a Charis or Siddarmark occupied Silkiah is another drain on military and moral capital they need like cancer.

It'd be consistent with policy to date to occupy Dohlar - if it weren't so large and distant. Siddarmark may be a bit more interested in that, but if they are at all, I'd not see much Charisian role in it beyond continuing to control the Gulf of Dohlar. (And I doubt Siddarmark would be all that thrilled about expansion by conquest either.)

Charis doesn't want to create enemies. They don't want to have people remain enemies. Tarot, Emerald, Zebediah, Chisholm - all invited out of the war and into the Empire under terms to enjoy it. Corisande too, for that matter - it just had to have a Hectorectomy first and some bed rest to recover from the procedure.

For Dohlar, I would expect the minimal terms consistent with a recognition and admission that they violated customs of politics and war in the coalition up to Armageddon Reef and in the treatment of prisoners of war, and whatever it takes to detach them from the jihad. How far those minimal terms may still have to go may be pretty harsh, but being made a "protectorate" of new overlords is hard to swallow as "minimal" in any sense.

JeffEngel wrote:

Isilith wrote:
I tend to see Silkiah in Charisian hands ( along with that northern strip of Desnair's North Watch.

I see Dohlar being a joint protectorate of EoC and the Republic. With the Republic swallowing up the border states, maybe one or both of the two easternmost provinces of Harchong.

Charis hasn't had much interest in putting anyone in the Empire that doesn't want to be there - with the exception of enemies that aren't going to stop being enemies any other way. And even then, Corisande got out of the war with an easy time of it and an "occupation" so light-handed that it'd be better described as a group of advisers for a transitional regime.

I see Silkiah ending up in Silkiahan hands. Siddarmark and Charis just need to see it so that it's not occupied by Desnair or taking orders from Zion anymore. A liberated Silkiah is likely to be leaning on Charis and Siddarmark to remain free, but a Charis or Siddarmark occupied Silkiah is another drain on military and moral capital they need like cancer.

It'd be consistent with policy to date to occupy Dohlar - if it weren't so large and distant. Siddarmark may be a bit more interested in that, but if they are at all, I'd not see much Charisian role in it beyond continuing to control the Gulf of Dohlar. (And I doubt Siddarmark would be all that thrilled about expansion by conquest either.)

Charis doesn't want to create enemies. They don't want to have people remain enemies. Tarot, Emerald, Zebediah, Chisholm - all invited out of the war and into the Empire under terms to enjoy it. Corisande too, for that matter - it just had to have a Hectorectomy first and some bed rest to recover from the procedure.

For Dohlar, I would expect the minimal terms consistent with a recognition and admission that they violated customs of politics and war in the coalition up to Armageddon Reef and in the treatment of prisoners of war, and whatever it takes to detach them from the jihad. How far those minimal terms may still have to go may be pretty harsh, but being made a "protectorate" of new overlords is hard to swallow as "minimal" in any sense.

I see Charis having a very large carrot to be able to entice Silkiah into joining the empire, including helping them gain that desnairian territory to their south.

JeffEngel wrote:

Charis hasn't had much interest in putting anyone in the Empire that doesn't want to be there - with the exception of enemies that aren't going to stop being enemies any other way. And even then, Corisande got out of the war with an easy time of it and an "occupation" so light-handed that it'd be better described as a group of advisers for a transitional regime.

I see Silkiah ending up in Silkiahan hands. Siddarmark and Charis just need to see it so that it's not occupied by Desnair or taking orders from Zion anymore. A liberated Silkiah is likely to be leaning on Charis and Siddarmark to remain free, but a Charis or Siddarmark occupied Silkiah is another drain on military and moral capital they need like cancer.

It'd be consistent with policy to date to occupy Dohlar - if it weren't so large and distant. Siddarmark may be a bit more interested in that, but if they are at all, I'd not see much Charisian role in it beyond continuing to control the Gulf of Dohlar. (And I doubt Siddarmark would be all that thrilled about expansion by conquest either.)

Charis doesn't want to create enemies. They don't want to have people remain enemies. Tarot, Emerald, Zebediah, Chisholm - all invited out of the war and into the Empire under terms to enjoy it. Corisande too, for that matter - it just had to have a Hectorectomy first and some bed rest to recover from the procedure.

For Dohlar, I would expect the minimal terms consistent with a recognition and admission that they violated customs of politics and war in the coalition up to Armageddon Reef and in the treatment of prisoners of war, and whatever it takes to detach them from the jihad. How far those minimal terms may still have to go may be pretty harsh, but being made a "protectorate" of new overlords is hard to swallow as "minimal" in any sense.

I agree that Charis isn't going to want to absorb Silkiah or Dohlar. The EOC reached its natural frontiers with the addition of Tarot and certainly doesn't want mainland territory on anything other than a very temporary basis, temporary as in we will help you keep order until you get your act together and then we are out of here.

As for Silkiah, well, it could end up your way. But remember that Silkiah ended up an semi-independent state in a solution imposed by the church to keep Siddarmark from expanding any further in Desnair's direction. And it was demilitarized. I was thinking that Siddarmark and Silkiah have a lot in common with their attitudes toward commerce and trade. Rather than try to maintain independence, it might be in their best interest to team up with Siddarmark in exchange for a voice in Siddarmark's policies and pay their share of the cost of maintaining security rather than going through the greater expense of raising their own army and being by themselves.

And Siddarmark is the one of the allies with a major security interest in that land bridge. Were I the Protector it would be very important to me to have my hands or whatever on that strongly enough to see to it that Desnair minds its own business south of that bridge rather than trying to expand up into the Havens, particularly toward Siddarmark.

And, quite frankly, given the cost in blood and treasure that Siddamark has paid, not only in this war but previously, I think they've earned that much.

Don

n7axw wrote:As for Silkiah, well, it could end up your way. But remember that Silkiah ended up an semi-independent state in a solution imposed by the church to keep Siddarmark from expanding any further in Desnair's direction. And it was demilitarized. I was thinking that Siddarmark and Silkiah have a lot in common with their attitudes toward commerce and trade. Rather than try to maintain independence, it might be in their best interest to team up with Siddarmark in exchange for a voice in Siddarmark's policies and pay their share of the cost of maintaining security rather than going through the greater expense of raising their own army and being by themselves.

And Siddarmark is the one of the allies with a major security interest in that land bridge. Were I the Protector it would be very important to me to have my hands or whatever on that strongly enough to see to it that Desnair minds its own business south of that bridge rather than trying to expand up into the Havens, particularly toward Siddarmark.

And, quite frankly, given the cost in blood and treasure that Siddamark has paid, not only in this war but previously, I think they've earned that much.

Don

I imagine Silkiah is going to be more than friendly enough to Siddarmark and Charis, and disinclined to make Desnair's day any better, to want to keep their nation from being an invasion corridor. Left to themselves, they may well want to seek a close and formal relationship with one or both of those powers that sees their southern border guaranteed by them, instead of their northern one guaranteed by Zion.

That said, I doubt gratitude goes quite so far as to consider it their obligation to offer their sovereignty up to one invader to avoid the other one. It doesn't sound like a perspective that a small or proud state would normally adopt. They may also not care to have borders re-drawn so that they are left holding a border against Desnair, adjusted southward for Siddarmark's interests, giving Silkiah a restive population to keep under control and focusing Desnair's hostility right on them - and leaving them even more dependent on Siddarmark's good graces. Furthermore, that kind of move will speak volumes to Border States and any other small nation about the treatment they can expect from the arrogant giants bestriding Safehold in bloody victory with an eye toward claiming what their blood has bought out of friend and foe alike.

Maybe Silkiah's got a popular sentiment in favor of joining the Republic. Maybe they've got a popular lukewarm tolerance for the idea but take it as a fine deal to take in order to secure a stronger position against Desnairian invasion. And maybe the security interests Siddarmark has down there - I'm not denying that they've got the interest - can be served as much as Silkiah's own interests by a strong defensive alliance so that Siddarmark's frontiers can be defended on their neighbor's border instead of their own. Any of that is perfectly plausible, even.

But Desnairian or Temple crimes don't give Siddarmark a call to strong-arm another victim of those crimes to pick up more danger, strife, expense, or violation for Siddarmark's benefit. And I wouldn't expect Silkiahans to agree they would either.

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:As for Silkiah, well, it could end up your way. But remember that Silkiah ended up an semi-independent state in a solution imposed by the church to keep Siddarmark from expanding any further in Desnair's direction. And it was demilitarized. I was thinking that Siddarmark and Silkiah have a lot in common with their attitudes toward commerce and trade. Rather than try to maintain independence, it might be in their best interest to team up with Siddarmark in exchange for a voice in Siddarmark's policies and pay their share of the cost of maintaining security rather than going through the greater expense of raising their own army and being by themselves.

And Siddarmark is the one of the allies with a major security interest in that land bridge. Were I the Protector it would be very important to me to have my hands or whatever on that strongly enough to see to it that Desnair minds its own business south of that bridge rather than trying to expand up into the Havens, particularly toward Siddarmark.

And, quite frankly, given the cost in blood and treasure that Siddamark has paid, not only in this war but previously, I think they've earned that much.

Don

I imagine Silkiah is going to be more than friendly enough to Siddarmark and Charis, and disinclined to make Desnair's day any better, to want to keep their nation from being an invasion corridor. Left to themselves, they may well want to seek a close and formal relationship with one or both of those powers that sees their southern border guaranteed by them, instead of their northern one guaranteed by Zion.

That said, I doubt gratitude goes quite so far as to consider it their obligation to offer their sovereignty up to one invader to avoid the other one. It doesn't sound like a perspective that a small or proud state would normally adopt. They may also not care to have borders re-drawn so that they are left holding a border against Desnair, adjusted southward for Siddarmark's interests, giving Silkiah a restive population to keep under control and focusing Desnair's hostility right on them - and leaving them even more dependent on Siddarmark's good graces. Furthermore, that kind of move will speak volumes to Border States and any other small nation about the treatment they can expect from the arrogant giants bestriding Safehold in bloody victory with an eye toward claiming what their blood has bought out of friend and foe alike.

Maybe Silkiah's got a popular sentiment in favor of joining the Republic. Maybe they've got a popular lukewarm tolerance for the idea but take it as a fine deal to take in order to secure a stronger position against Desnairian invasion. And maybe the security interests Siddarmark has down there - I'm not denying that they've got the interest - can be served as much as Silkiah's own interests by a strong defensive alliance so that Siddarmark's frontiers can be defended on their neighbor's border instead of their own. Any of that is perfectly plausible, even.

But Desnairian or Temple crimes don't give Siddarmark a call to strong-arm another victim of those crimes to pick up more danger, strife, expense, or violation for Siddarmark's benefit. And I wouldn't expect Silkiahans to agree they would either.

I'm not suggesting victimization. I am proposing partnertship in union in a manner similar to the spirit in which Caleb reached out to Chisholm. I'm not even suggesting coercion. I'm merely saying that Silkiah might see its own long term interests best served by union with Siddarmark. And conversely, Siddarmark' s long term security interests would be well served by such an arrangement.

Finally, the commercial interests of both sides could conceivably be strenghened that way.

All of this being said, however, I wouldn't say that much of the same thing couldn't be accomplished in other ways. What I do think is what I have proposed would be the most reliable way for both Silkiah and Siddarmark to insure that whatever the future holds, they will face it together.

Don

JeffEngel wrote:But Desnairian or Temple crimes don't give Siddarmark a call to strong-arm another victim of those crimes to pick up more danger, strife, expense, or violation for Siddarmark's benefit. And I wouldn't expect Silkiahans to agree they would either.

Ok, while this is a Sci-Fi book series we are reading, it has to have elements of reality here. Siddarmark, nor the EoC, are "evil" regimes... but they have every damn right in the world to take territory from the countries that have attacked them. There is zero chance that both of them don't take territory from these "victims" you speak of. Though I am not sure how they are "victims" when they attacked Sidd/EoC first.

Yes, they were coerced by the church, but they still did it.

That said, I still see Silkiah having more to gain from a relationship with Charis, than with Siddarmark. Just as I see Siddarmark swallowing up the border states. Which they would be JUSTIFIED ( just for future protection, if nothing else. ) in doing after how they, with the churches urging, just raped Siddarmark with the SoS and subsequent invasion.

Isilith wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:But Desnairian or Temple crimes don't give Siddarmark a call to strong-arm another victim of those crimes to pick up more danger, strife, expense, or violation for Siddarmark's benefit. And I wouldn't expect Silkiahans to agree they would either.

Ok, while this is a Sci-Fi book series we are reading, it has to have elements of reality here. Siddarmark, nor the EoC, are "evil" regimes... but they have every damn right in the world to take territory from the countries that have attacked them. There is zero chance that both of them don't take territory from these "victims" you speak of. Though I am not sure how they are "victims" when they attacked Sidd/EoC first.

Yes, they were coerced by the church, but they still did it.

That said, I still see Silkiah having more to gain from a relationship with Charis, than with Siddarmark. Just as I see Siddarmark swallowing up the border states. Which they would be JUSTIFIED ( just for future protection, if nothing else. ) in doing after how they, with the churches urging, just raped Siddarmark with the SoS and subsequent invasion.

We were talking about Silkiah, which prior to the war was demilitarzed, that is, guilty of attacking no one, couldn't have attacked anyone because it lacked the means. The question is how best to assure security for Silkiah and its people.

You and I and Jeff have disagreed. Now we will see how RFC plays it out.

Don

n7axw wrote:
We were talking about Silkiah, which prior to the war was demilitarzed, that is, guilty of attacking no one, couldn't have attacked anyone because it lacked the means. The question is how best to assure security for Silkiah and its people.

You and I and Jeff have disagreed. Now we will see how RFC plays it out.

Don

They were demilitarized, but that restriction was lifted for the Jihad, and their factories are actively supporting the enemies of Siddarmark and the EoC.

That said, I think Sidd/EoC can reach a mostly diplomatic accommodation with Silkiah, though I am sure there will be some military engagements on their soil. Mainly because their canals have to be taken and denied to the enemies use.