Thinking about King Zhames

Under the assumption that Siddermark and South Harchong will keep Desnair occupied immediately after this stage of the war, King Zhames has perhaps a year or two to decide his fate.

1) Accepts that within a decade his nation will be swallowed up by either Desnair or SH depending on the outcome of the Howard border conflicts.

2) Seeks an alliance with Charis. I doubt that Charis will want to have Delfarahk as a member of the Empire. That sort of defend at all costs commitment is just not wise for them to give to a mainland nation. Siddermark could take care of themselves given some space. Delfarahk will never be able to against their larger neighbors.

3) Ignore the sweeping tides of change and hope everything will eventually go back to normal. This is a pipe dream at best and tacit acceptance of option 1 in reality.

The real question you are asking Don, is how quickly will they recognize this is their menu of options once this jihad is over.

My answer is that King Zhames will recognize his options rather quickly. I would hope that Charis will focus on building Delfarahk's industry and tech base rather than focus on providing only military support. Delfarahk's only long term hope is to become a valuable trading partner that would be too expensive for either SH or Desnair to conquer.

Upgrading Delfarahk's MilTech will be relatively safe for Charis. There is an incentive for Delfarahk not to share their new capabilities with their neighbors. I honestly believe that Zhames is considering these options right now.

I am not sure I would prefer a mainland naval base over one on a island, Don. Samson's Land has 3 bays that could support well protected harbors and Westbreak island has one as well. Even if building the bases would be more difficult, having those bases on islands would provide better security than having a base on the mainland where armies could get to it directly.

Staging bases on Samson's land, Westbreak Island, Claw Island, the Dohlar Banks and Dragon Island would put bases between 2,000-4,000 miles apart. Those bases would give coverage to all of Howard for refueling as well as allow for a heavy presence in the Gulf of Dohlar.

n7axw wrote:

SYED wrote:King zhames will be isolate from the church, via the land bridge and the sea in the control of hte imperium.
Their biggest threat is from desnair, i am wondering wit hte financial issues and discord in the world, would other borders start to move. I bet they might get swallowed up soon.

Zhames will have to look for allies to guarantee his security. The most natural place for him to look would be the EOC. Hosting an imperial base in exchange for an EOC guarantee of his terrtitorial integrity would be the best Zhames could hope for and its probably in the EOC's interest to make the deal.

Don

PeterZ wrote:Under the assumption that Siddermark and South Harchong will keep Desnair occupied immediately after this stage of the war, King Zhames has perhaps a year or two to decide his fate.

1) Accepts that within a decade his nation will be swallowed up by either Desnair or SH depending on the outcome of the Howard border conflicts.

This is assuming that South Harchong or Desnair are interested in territorial expansion through war. It wouldn't be completely unmotivated - the whole foreign adventure for uniting restive populations - but on the other hand, I imagine after this a lot of people will be heartily sick of war. Just keeping their own houses in order will suck up a lot of effort. And Delferahk is neither tiny, defenseless, nor trivially easy to cross.

South Harchong will be working up a military out of nothing. If we suppose they've got the ingredients of it, they've still got the thing to put together. Desnair keeps losing armies and navies. Delferahk, by contrast, hasn't suffered much of any loss to its army and is a much more tightly knit nation than Desnair or a still-hypothetical independent South Harchong.

There seems to be this assumption that Safehold rulers are all Attila the Hun.

2) Seeks an alliance with Charis. I doubt that Charis will want to have Delfarahk as a member of the Empire. That sort of defend at all costs commitment is just not wise for them to give to a mainland nation. Siddermark could take care of themselves given some space. Delfarahk will never be able to against their larger neighbors.

Delferahk is unlikely ever to have to face off, one on one, in a vacuum against Desnair or the hypothetical South Harchong Empire. Each of them has the other to worry about - and Siddarmark, Dohlar, and North Harchong if the Gulf of Dohlar isn't barred to it. For that matter, they have to keep control of themselves.

And after hypothetically conquering a frequently forested, mountainous nation with people who do somewhat identify as Delferahkans, they'll have to garrison it. If they suck resources out of it, it's more restive; if they don't, then the conquest will have been pointless.

3) Ignore the sweeping tides of change and hope everything will eventually go back to normal. This is a pipe dream at best and tacit acceptance of option 1 in reality.

The real question you are asking Don, is how quickly will they recognize this is their menu of options once this jihad is over.

My answer is that King Zhames will recognize his options rather quickly. I would hope that Charis will focus on building Delfarahk's industry and tech base rather than focus on providing only military support. Delfarahk's only long term hope is to become a valuable trading partner that would be too expensive for either SH or Desnair to conquer.

I suspect it's that already. Of course, that does not rule out those two states partitioning it between them - if they are both rabid for territory and able to cooperate that well.

All that said, I do think Delferahk is likely to make peace with Charis, normalize relations, and start looking like something Charis (and/or Siddarmark) does not care to have swallowed by an aggressive neighbor. Even without a formal alliance, being a friend of either of those powers, or both, will make Delferahk something neighbors would hesitate to try to consume, on top of all the other reason to hesitate.

Upgrading Delfarahk's MilTech will be relatively safe for Charis. There is an incentive for Delfarahk not to share their new capabilities with their neighbors. I honestly believe that Zhames is considering these options right now.

I don't think he's got reason to think that his kingdom is being eyed as a snack by any neighbor, but otherwise, yes, I too think he's thinking of making nice with Charis and reaping the rewards. (Or at least, the relief.)

JeffEngel wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Under the assumption that Siddermark and South Harchong will keep Desnair occupied immediately after this stage of the war, King Zhames has perhaps a year or two to decide his fate.

1) Accepts that within a decade his nation will be swallowed up by either Desnair or SH depending on the outcome of the Howard border conflicts.

This is assuming that South Harchong or Desnair are interested in territorial expansion through war. It wouldn't be completely unmotivated - the whole foreign adventure for uniting restive populations - but on the other hand, I imagine after this a lot of people will be heartily sick of war. Just keeping their own houses in order will suck up a lot of effort. And Delferahk is neither tiny, defenseless, nor trivially easy to cross.

South Harchong will be working up a military out of nothing. If we suppose they've got the ingredients of it, they've still got the thing to put together. Desnair keeps losing armies and navies. Delferahk, by contrast, hasn't suffered much of any loss to its army and is a much more tightly knit nation than Desnair or a still-hypothetical independent South Harchong.

There seems to be this assumption that Safehold rulers are all Attila the Hun.

Not all rulers, just Desnairian ones. Desnair's expansionism will drive the choices of all their neighbors.

As I recall Delfarahk is related to Rayno and Siddermark has been viewed by the CoGA as a threat. Zion has allowed Desnair to direct its territorial ambitions in Siddermark's direction. Unfortunately, Siddermark has been quite adept at defeating Desnairi armies. Once Zion suffers the loss to Charis and their influence over international politics evaporates, Desnair will go after smaller fish.

I believe that SH will attack Desnair for self defense. If SH allows Desnair to get their legs underneath themselves, Desnair might expand in SH's direction.

I think that Jeff does have a point. One does to ask the question if there is any commeasurate reward for conquering Delferak. It's bound to be at least some trouble, and for what? It's just sitting there, not really a threat to anyone and too poor to be worth looting.

Then too, prior to the Jihad, Delferak and Desnair coexisted on the same continent with Desnair more capable than now. Is there really any reason for that state of affairs not to continue?

But still, were I Zhames, I wouldn't be counting on that. I would be reaching out for allies. I still think that the EOC would be a good fit. If you are looking to put bases on islands, Peter, Zhames has lots of them and they are from a strategic point of view better placed than Claw with potential of providing reach on both sides of Howard. I'm not suggesting giving up Claw. But it is really too small to host a major naval base. Delferak, on the other hand, could sell food to supply the base and maybe even provide coal (at a price, of course.)

I don't think it would be neccessary to provide a major military presence on Delferak proper. All that would be needed would be to have a few thousand marines on the base itself along with helping modernizing Delferak's own army. Then pass along the word that the EOC would be very unhappy with the notion of anybody entertaining designs on Delferak. The EOC's propietory interest should be more than enough hint to any unfriendly souls that might happen by that Delfarak has just gotten even more expensive to mess with and Zhames should have the deterrent he needs.

Don

n7axw wrote:
I'm not suggesting giving up Claw. But it is really too small to host a major naval base.

Umm, how is it too small? If I recall correctly, it is 112 miles long... and judging by the map from 25-50 miles wide up and down it's length.

How is THAT too small? That is bigger than any Naval base the US currently has.

Isilith wrote:

n7axw wrote:
I'm not suggesting giving up Claw. But it is really too small to host a major naval base.

Umm, how is it too small? If I recall correctly, it is 112 miles long... and judging by the map from 25-50 miles wide up and down it's length.

How is THAT too small? That is bigger than any Naval base the US currently has.

I came off the top of my head on that and your recollection could be right. However the point I was making still stands. Claw has almost nothing to bring to the table apart from its location relative to the Gulf of Dohlar. Any major fleet presence would have to be supplied from the outside, even granting that some food could be raised there. Its harbor possibilities are limited and not all that well protected. In short it does have value as a stopping off place to ships in the area for resupply and possible filling the coal bins. And strategically it is well placed to serve as a focal point for covering the Gulf of Dohlar should that be needed. I'm not suggesting that the ICN give Claw up. It could become vital in a pinch even as it is at this point of the story.

By the way, Isilith, I hope that someone has welcomed you to the forums and invited you to the virtual drink of your choice. It's on the house... I hope you enjoy yourself here.

Don

Isilith wrote:

n7axw wrote:
I'm not suggesting giving up Claw. But it is really too small to host a major naval base.

Umm, how is it too small? If I recall correctly, it is 112 miles long... and judging by the map from 25-50 miles wide up and down it's length.

How is THAT too small? That is bigger than any Naval base the US currently has.

Fresh water and food on the island are limited. If you're friendly enough with the neighbors, buying food (relatively) nearby is doable. But that's a big if for heretics on the other side of a jihad.

How major a base one has in mind is another issue. For the single largest base to support operations along the west coast of Harchong and the entry to the Gulf of Dohlar, it will do, though the islands inside the Gulf will be very welcome for some better harbors, better access to trade when possible, and better water supplies.

If you prefer, the heat, the poor harbor conditions, and the limited fresh water are all bigger strikes against Claw Island than sheer acreage.

If the politics allowed, supplementing Claw Island with an arrangement with Greentree Island would be choice, but Greentree is a bit large to be able to keep to yourself with just a navy if you don't have local cooperation.

Mr. Engle does have a point. Whether Delfarahk was left alone because of the relationship between Zhames and Rayno or some other non-political but durable reason is unknown. My point is that there will be powerful motivations for the mainland to compete with Charis economically. Desnair might conclude that means expanding is the only way they know how, through conquest.

PeterZ wrote:Mr. Engle does have a point. Whether Delfarahk was left alone because of the relationship between Zhames and Rayno or some other non-political but durable reason is unknown. My point is that there will be powerful motivations for the mainland to compete with Charis economically. Desnair might conclude that means expanding is the only way they know how, through conquest.

Could be. If they do, I have to suspect that Delferahk isn't going to command the top of the target list though. There's Dohlar (oh so many cities and craftsmen to seize there); Sodar (hey, it can't be hard, though the point of it may be elusive too); and South Harchong's Harris Peninsula (only - it's the part of SH you can walk to from Desnair).

And after having lost a navy and an army to means they cannot replicate, Desnair, thick-headed as they are, may just figure that they need to modernize and reform at least before going a-conquering again, and maybe instead of it. Adopt steam engines. Cultivate an entrepreneurial class. Seize Church assets and create a national bank with them, as a basis for banking like the Temple, Siddarmark, and Charis have enjoyed, but for Desnair for once. Get your foot off the tradesmen. Let the proud warrior nobility relax into genteel landowners - land is always going to be valuable. Ease off on restrictions on serfs in a controlled fashion, so the institution can fade out without bringing about a revolution or counter-revolution. The same ought to be done with slavery, but if not - and I suggest this with ethical considerations suspended, which may be too appropriate for Desnair's ruling class - see about adapting it to intensive agriculture, mining, and industry. (There were proposals that way in the antebellum U.S. South, though they were problematic and unpopular.)

Desnair's been hit on the head a lot lately. With that much pounding on the empire's collective head, an idea or two may be sneaking in.