How will it work out in Desnair?

I'm looking forward to a revolution in Desnair, if not in HFQ then in the next volume. We've been told a lot of things about Desnair so far in series that would indicate that it was ripe for revolution, to wit:

- They practice outright slavery (always a source of disaffected potential revolutionaries).

- Their major source of revenue, their gold mines, cannot keep up with their expenses, resulting in a severe inflation.

- This loss of revenue is aggravated by the interference by the Charisian Navy with their coastal trade, particularly in the Gulf of Jahras

- This inflation is putting the squeeze on whatever middle class they have, hence creating even more disaffected citizens.

- Their largely incompetent military has just suffered a major disaster in the South March, losing nearly 200,00 men, thus embittering and disillusioning their citizenry with their military (and by implication their political) leadership.

- Their nobility's attitude towards the commoners creates a huge gap between them and undoubtedly gives rise to great resentment by the commoners.

- Their nobility's alignment with the Temple and the Inquisition is undercutting the commoner's support of the the those two organizations (see the situation in Zebediah).

- As soon as communication is severed between Howard and Haven, the Temple and the Inquisition will lose much of what influence they have in Desnair.

- The triggering event will be the attempt by the nation's (noble) leaders to create a new army to go north and fight for the Temple. The citizens will rise in revolt, and probably establish a republic similar to Siddermark.

(it is probable that the M96 rifles and guns captured from the Charisians by Desnairan commerce raiders will figure in the success of this revolution).

(RFC - If you like this scenario feel free to use it)#

Philip Stanley

I don't see a rebellion in Desnair as likely. Who would lead it? Any uprising would be more in the nature of riots of hopeless lower class individuals doing whatever they can to stay alive from day to day.

Given these circumstances, I can see some group similar to the levelers in Siddermark trying to capitalize on economic dislocations to encourage unrest. I just don't see this as very likely at all on a broad scale. There simply isn't a large enough middle class to sustain a nation wide rebellion. The sorts of grass roots groups that would appeal to the lower classes would scare the middle class witless.

Compare the situation in Desnair to that in Russia after their major defeats by the Germans at the beginning of WWI. There's even a made to order democratic movement already in place - the Levelers. The situation is very similar.

Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky, and the other Socialist and Communist leaders were not from the nobility, but they led a movement that took over a whole country.

I think my scenario is certainly very possible. I just hope RFC agrees.

Philip Stanley

PeterZ wrote:I don't see a rebellion in Desnair as likely. Who would lead it? Any uprising would be more in the nature of riots of hopeless lower class individuals doing whatever they can to stay alive from day to day.

Given these circumstances, I can see some group similar to the levelers in Siddermark trying to capitalize on economic dislocations to encourage unrest. I just don't see this as very likely at all on a broad scale. There simply isn't a large enough middle class to sustain a nation wide rebellion. The sorts of grass roots groups that would appeal to the lower classes would scare the middle class witless.

Desnair might see a split between the nobles - a bunch of them died with the Army in Siddarmark.
The real world analogy might be ... more along the lines of one of the English civil/dynastic wars, rather than a French Revolution. Or the breakup/collapse of the Holy Roman Empire into smaller principalities, especially the German ones, prior to Prussia's re-unification.
Philip's comparison to early 20th Century Russia and its civil war is probably apt, though Russia had had the earlier outright defeat against Japan, and it is unlikely that either the CoGA (or the Inquisition) or Charis will actively send in people or troops to foment revolution in Desnair, or to help one side or the other, though it's likely that the CoGA/Inquisition would try to support the Desnairan Crown/Monarchy and the status quo.


Desnair needs (or is going to be ordered to create) a new field army to send against Siddarmark/Charisian forces.
Desnair can either build an new field force in its traditional style - lots of cavalry, especially heavy cavalry, primarily utilizing the 'proper classes', especially nobles, and using the lower classes for expendable infantry to garrison and fix the enemy for the cavalry, or Desnair can build a field force more suitable to the modern combat environment, where reliable, long range, accurate, rapidly firing, rifles in the hands of regular infantry, and longer ranged, faster firing artillery are the vital direct and decisive combat arms, with cavalry mostly reduced to scouting and skirmishing forces, entirely inadequate and incapable of entering the battlefield as a primary force. Option one means a lot more losses amongst the nobility and proper sorts for little or no gain in glory (always something the aristocracy tends to seek to avoid), and the other means training and arming up the commoners, who probably don't really like the current system and aren't trusted by the bulk of the aristocracy (and who probably don't want to die and may well be becoming disenchanted with the system they're in).

PeterZ wrote:I don't see a rebellion in Desnair as likely. Who would lead it? Any uprising would be more in the nature of riots of hopeless lower class individuals doing whatever they can to stay alive from day to day.

Given these circumstances, I can see some group similar to the levelers in Siddermark trying to capitalize on economic dislocations to encourage unrest. I just don't see this as very likely at all on a broad scale. There simply isn't a large enough middle class to sustain a nation wide rebellion. The sorts of grass roots groups that would appeal to the lower classes would scare the middle class witless.

I believe there is a major force developing in Desnair (no textev) due to the capture of the 5000 M96's and the ship full of Mortars and 'other' stuff. A privateer could turn the materials over to the King or Church but I suspect it could lead to a private and very dangerous force that could change the balance of power in Desnair.

Just a thought

I agree that the Levelers are a source of unrest or at least can be the fulcrum to leverage unrest. What I don't see is the lever. Where will the funds to support the ground work going to come from? The Desnairi middle class won't contribute. Siddermark doesn't need to in order to gain what territories are meaningful to them. South Harchong won't use that tool because they would want to occupy Desnair. Occupation would be easier without that ideology permeating their new possession.

A dynastic or aristocratic civil war I can see. Even here the outside threats would foster aristos to betray their Emporer rather than foment outright civil war. Any aristo worth his blue blood salt will recognize that a civil war will simply invite South Harchong to expedite their timetable. That being the case, it would be better for those aristos to actively encourage SH and elevate their status afterwards. Its either that or stay loyal. Not many options for the aristos.

dwileye13 wrote:
I believe there is a major force developing in Desnair (no textev) due to the capture of the 5000 M96's and the ship full of Mortars and 'other' stuff. A privateer could turn the materials over to the King or Church but I suspect it could lead to a private and very dangerous force that could change the balance of power in Desnair.

Just a thought

Could be. My gut tells me that this is going to Zion. Who in Zion controls these weapons? That will be interesting.

PeterZ wrote:

dwileye13 wrote:
I believe there is a major force developing in Desnair (no textev) due to the capture of the 5000 M96's and the ship full of Mortars and 'other' stuff. A privateer could turn the materials over to the King or Church but I suspect it could lead to a private and very dangerous force that could change the balance of power in Desnair.

Just a thought

Could be. My gut tells me that this is going to Zion. Who in Zion controls these weapons? That will be interesting.

Getting those weapons to Zion may be a difficult task. I would expect Owl to follow those items closely and for the alliance to intercept.

PeterZ wrote:I agree that the Levelers are a source of unrest or at least can be the fulcrum to leverage unrest. What I don't see is the lever. Where will the funds to support the ground work going to come from? The Desnairi middle class won't contribute. Siddermark doesn't need to in order to gain what territories are meaningful to them. South Harchong won't use that tool because they would want to occupy Desnair. Occupation would be easier without that ideology permeating their new possession.

A dynastic or aristocratic civil war I can see. Even here the outside threats would foster aristos to betray their Emporer rather than foment outright civil war. Any aristo worth his blue blood salt will recognize that a civil war will simply invite South Harchong to expedite their timetable. That being the case, it would be better for those aristos to actively encourage SH and elevate their status afterwards. Its either that or stay loyal. Not many options for the aristos.

How about a slave rebellion? Lots of those in Harchong and Desnair does practice slavery... I see a bloody surpression that would leave Desnair vulnerable to SH.

Don

It seems to me the northern most tip of desnair will end up in silkiah hands and that gulf upder the control of the imperium.
With such a loss of the military, they would need a fortune to replace it, and it would be difficult to keep unrest under control with limited man power and supplies.