Spoiler - Desnair Coup

5,000 M-96 Rifles on the loose in Desnair!

With most of their Aristocratic Army destroyed and a focus of the Cities Class Ironclads coming into the situation to destroy the maritime power in Desnair as well as being virtually cut off from the rest of the world, could Desnair be ripe for a Coup? The Ships captured by Desnair raiders with the 5000 M-96’s and a boatload of Mortars would make a most dangerous small force wherever it ends up. It has to be assumed that the weapons were shipped with the requisite ammunition.

Someone has the chance to make inroads against the Desnairian Hierarchy with a quick strike once they learn how to use the weapons.

dwileye13 wrote:5,000 M-96 Rifles on the loose in Desnair!

With most of their Aristocratic Army destroyed and a focus of the Cities Class Ironclads coming into the situation to destroy the maritime power in Desnair as well as being virtually cut off from the rest of the world, could Desnair be ripe for a Coup? The Ships captured by Desnair raiders with the 5000 M-96’s and a boatload of Mortars would make a most dangerous small force wherever it ends up. It has to be assumed that the weapons were shipped with the requisite ammunition.

Someone has the chance to make inroads against the Desnairian Hierarchy with a quick strike once they learn how to use the weapons.

Someone could cause some trouble with that combination of gear and circumstance. But there's so much to be gained from selling that gear to the Church - still likely the bidder with the deepest pockets and certainly the one most likely to kill you painfully if you do not sell to them.

The Church still has the squeeze in Desnair to keep it in the fight in whatever way it can be. The navy is gone, the army is gone or close, but the privateer forces remain available and at this point are likely to be looking good out of desperation. (And, incidentally, out of being genuinely effective, much as that may surprise mainland traditionalists - witness their delivery of that weapons cache!)

The current ministers and Emperor may be unpopular enough with the Church for not being more competent and with other factions for losing so much, but any coup that isn't Church supported is too likely to suffer too much of their wrath. A coup that is Church supported is unlikely: the Church has too much to lose from the chaos of even a successful coup, much too much to lose in a failed one, and probably no better results they could expect out of a post-coup Desnair than under the current regime.

JeffEngel wrote:

dwileye13 wrote:5,000 M-96 Rifles on the loose in Desnair!

With most of their Aristocratic Army destroyed and a focus of the Cities Class Ironclads coming into the situation to destroy the maritime power in Desnair as well as being virtually cut off from the rest of the world, could Desnair be ripe for a Coup? The Ships captured by Desnair raiders with the 5000 M-96’s and a boatload of Mortars would make a most dangerous small force wherever it ends up. It has to be assumed that the weapons were shipped with the requisite ammunition.

Someone has the chance to make inroads against the Desnairian Hierarchy with a quick strike once they learn how to use the weapons.

Someone could cause some trouble with that combination of gear and circumstance. But there's so much to be gained from selling that gear to the Church - still likely the bidder with the deepest pockets and certainly the one most likely to kill you painfully if you do not sell to them.

The Church still has the squeeze in Desnair to keep it in the fight in whatever way it can be. The navy is gone, the army is gone or close, but the privateer forces remain available and at this point are likely to be looking good out of desperation. (And, incidentally, out of being genuinely effective, much as that may surprise mainland traditionalists - witness their delivery of that weapons cache!)

The current ministers and Emperor may be unpopular enough with the Church for not being more competent and with other factions for losing so much, but any coup that isn't Church supported is too likely to suffer too much of their wrath. A coup that is Church supported is unlikely: the Church has too much to lose from the chaos of even a successful coup, much too much to lose in a failed one, and probably no better results they could expect out of a post-coup Desnair than under the current regime.

Your points are succinct. But Desnair is virtually cut off from the rest of the world and the Church to a great degree. Shortly, when the ICN moves Eastward and hopefully Westward, Desnair will be totally isolated. Selling the Arms to the Church would have to be done on Credit - the Church is running on borrowed/strong-armed money as it is. Someone has the opportunity to put a force into the field in Desnair that would walk over anything. But of course, privateers are such honorable men . . . .

JeffEngel wrote:

dwileye13 wrote:5,000 M-96 Rifles on the loose in Desnair!

With most of their Aristocratic Army destroyed and a focus of the Cities Class Ironclads coming into the situation to destroy the maritime power in Desnair as well as being virtually cut off from the rest of the world, could Desnair be ripe for a Coup? The Ships captured by Desnair raiders with the 5000 M-96’s and a boatload of Mortars would make a most dangerous small force wherever it ends up. It has to be assumed that the weapons were shipped with the requisite ammunition.

Someone has the chance to make inroads against the Desnairian Hierarchy with a quick strike once they learn how to use the weapons.

Someone could cause some trouble with that combination of gear and circumstance. But there's so much to be gained from selling that gear to the Church - still likely the bidder with the deepest pockets and certainly the one most likely to kill you painfully if you do not sell to them.

The Church still has the squeeze in Desnair to keep it in the fight in whatever way it can be. The navy is gone, the army is gone or close, but the privateer forces remain available and at this point are likely to be looking good out of desperation. (And, incidentally, out of being genuinely effective, much as that may surprise mainland traditionalists - witness their delivery of that weapons cache!)

The current ministers and Emperor may be unpopular enough with the Church for not being more competent and with other factions for losing so much, but any coup that isn't Church supported is too likely to suffer too much of their wrath. A coup that is Church supported is unlikely: the Church has too much to lose from the chaos of even a successful coup, much too much to lose in a failed one, and probably no better results they could expect out of a post-coup Desnair than under the current regime.

What you are saying here Jeff is probably true. But there is an important qualification. Howard is about to be isolated from the Havens by land when the allies take Silkiah and knock Dohlar out of the war. When the Haarahlds and the other steamships arrive, Howard will be isolated also by sea. The COGA is not going to be able to count on another army from either Desnair or Dohlar. Nor will it be able to influence whether or not there is a successful coup.

Don

n7axw wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:Someone could cause some trouble with that combination of gear and circumstance. But there's so much to be gained from selling that gear to the Church - still likely the bidder with the deepest pockets and certainly the one most likely to kill you painfully if you do not sell to them.

The Church still has the squeeze in Desnair to keep it in the fight in whatever way it can be. The navy is gone, the army is gone or close, but the privateer forces remain available and at this point are likely to be looking good out of desperation. (And, incidentally, out of being genuinely effective, much as that may surprise mainland traditionalists - witness their delivery of that weapons cache!)

The current ministers and Emperor may be unpopular enough with the Church for not being more competent and with other factions for losing so much, but any coup that isn't Church supported is too likely to suffer too much of their wrath. A coup that is Church supported is unlikely: the Church has too much to lose from the chaos of even a successful coup, much too much to lose in a failed one, and probably no better results they could expect out of a post-coup Desnair than under the current regime.

What you are saying here Jeff is probably true. But there is an important qualification. Howard is about to be isolated from the Havens by land when the allies take Silkiah and knock Dohlar out of the war. When the Haarahlds and the other steamships arrive, Howard will be isolated also by sea. The COGA is not going to be able to count on another army from either Desnair or Dohlar. Nor will it be able to influence whether or not there is a successful coup.

Don

The Church owns a whole lot of property in Desnair and commands the loyalty of a whole lot of people. At this point, with the gloves off, a lot of the rest of the people are perhaps more reasonably afraid of the Inquisition than the Emperor - and that doesn't require instructions from Zion. Heck, without them, the local Inquisition may get all the more... creative.

Being cut off means Desnair will not be able to coordinate well if at all with the rest of the war effort. If the Inquisition there opts to drop out, or can be overwhelmed by people who do, it can mean Desnair opts out of the war. If it retains the whip-hand and the will to fight to the last someone-else, then Desnair will remain a problem. A limited one, by all means - army gone, navy gone, artillery an afterthought, etc. - but it's still big and desperate sorts may get ominously creative too.

It does bring up another possibility though. If someone else is the bigger bidder, they may turn those weapons into a core element to overthrow the Inquisition in Desnair, to allow it to get the heck out of the war. I'm not going to suggest that's all that likely - it's a huge gamble, to count on a conspiracy large enough to do that to hold against Inquisition detection. But it's a possibility that may as well get out on the table.

Instead of a coup, i can see desnair moving agains the church forces in their lands when they are made isolated from the temple pwer by charis. Many countries are in financial difficulties, the only reason desnair is not is that they are striping hteir gold mines to pay their costs.
Taking over church assets could help resotre their economy, and make them safe from temple reprisals if they have limited resources in their lands.
If most of the army is gone, and the noobility decimated, what is there to stop any potential slave/serf/peasant rebeliions occuring. THe financial crisis has hit the lower clasees exceptrionally hard.

JeffEngel wrote:
It does bring up another possibility though. If someone else is the bigger bidder, they may turn those weapons into a core element to overthrow the Inquisition in Desnair, to allow it to get the heck out of the war. I'm not going to suggest that's all that likely - it's a huge gamble, to count on a conspiracy large enough to do that to hold against Inquisition detection. But it's a possibility that may as well get out on the table.

The Desnairian Hierarchy IMO is the Aristocracy supported by the Church and enforced by the Inquisition. I should have been clearer in my statement. To have a Coup yopu need to remove the top echelon of Power and that would have to include the Inquisition and the Secular Power wielded by the Church.

What I am suggesting is that Desnair might be about to remove itself from the Jihad and sue for terms.