The Inquisition Reformed. (SPOILER/SPECULATION)

lyonheart wrote:Hi Jeff Engel,

Thanks for the good ideas.

What happens to the CoGA [does Merlin get his wish and fulfill his oath?] will be fascinating to read.

My somewhat tongue-in-cheek suggestion of finding a range of acceptable lies is considerably reduced by what we know the inner circle especially Maikel will accept.

However, if the cease fire that ends this war, an actual peace treaty being an impossibility since the CoGA right wing nations would strenuously object and revolt, can last long enough to only carry out joint tribunals it might accomplish some justice at the temple and vicarate level at least after all, but don't hold out too much hope.

I'm a lot more hopeful about Safehold states being interested in peace if the Church allows it. Really - what national or dynastic interest is being served by the war now or in the foreseeable future?

Annexing chunks of Siddarmark isn't a dream still in any responsible Dohlaran or Desnairian head. Rahnyld surely isn't harboring ambitions of stealing Charisian trade now!

Delferahk's king strongly suspects he's been used, lied to, and manipulated by the Church and has suffered the destruction of his port city and sea-born trade as a result - and they nearly assassinated his relatives, under his care. And however the war turns out, Delferahk isn't getting stronger out of it.

Harchong's bureaucrats and aristocrats are getting their graft taken and their military reputation called into question finally. They had a shiny new navy - not anymore! And now the jihad has put modern guns into the hands of so many serfs, along with military training. That cannot end well. The most a jihad offers them is the prospect of those armed serfs not coming home. But that at least is something that's likely to be arranged before any ceasefire or peace agreement, at least in large (enough?) part - the Church isn't going to give up while it has Harchong In Arms on its side still.

The Border States certainly haven't got the muscle to carry on a jihad on their own, and some of them may well be "Silkiah in the West" - ready enough to become Siddarmark.

The Temple Lands will go as the Church will, though if the church families could be assured of remaining well-off aristocrats, they'd have fine dynastic, secular reasons to get out of a losing war before it was too late.

So what's keeping states in the jihad, when they haven't anything left to gain? Fear of creditors, fear of inquisitors, sincere religious sentiment. Fear of creditors is vanishing. The Church is borrowing from them now. Fear of inquisitors is serious, but that relies entirely on the Inquisition having the backing of the Church and the acquiescence of the locals. If the Church has to make peace or die, the Inquisition will either follow that line or become heretics themselves. And if the Church is utterly, clearly losing, and Inquisitors are seen as bullies taking good men, women, and yes, sometimes kids off to be tortured and killed... well, locals may quit tolerating them and then they're hosed.

That leaves sincere religious sentiment - the kind of thing ultimately keeping Duchairn fighting this jihad. But again, if the Church out of Zion is willing to make peace - if the Church out of Zion seems to bear no resemblance to the kindly parish priests, the wise Bedardist teachers, the gentle Pasqualate healers - and if the Church of Charis is demonstrating that it's no monster, and is in fact just those kind priests with their own archbishops thank you! - then sincere religious sentiment stops arguing for jihad. It argues for all the children of God on Safehold to act like one family again, even if they've chosen to live in different households with different rules.

Having a Dolaran like Staiphan Maik direct them would emphasize Dohlar's increasing importance at a critical time, besides his probable honest reputation among his co-workers and age group throughout the priesthood would reassure many fearing a reformist revenge even when they know its more than justified.

Minor nit - is Maik Dohlaran? I'd assumed he was of a level in the clergy where priests were shuffled around, and that he was of Temple Land or Border State birth. In any case, by now it's arguable he's "gone native" like Archbishop Gairlyng in Corisande, and his age and reputation should deliver the goods you have in mind.

Whether Rhobair insists on being the first and confesses all his faults NTM the gross mistakes and crimes of the Go4, there are going to be many where the available facts are too few and murky to insist on capital punishment, so life at hard labor might be the best until more evidence is found, according to your four criminal classes.

L

Maybe. Still, the Inquisition and SSK can between them be counted on to be thorough, albeit for very different goals. And if the evidence in many cases isn't sufficient for the very harshest punishment, the important things - responsible Church leadership and thorough reform - can still be served just getting those to whom nothing more than a bad smell sticks out of power. The appointment to take it up with God can wait.

And disclosure is more important than punishment anyway. Duchairn has oh so much he can disclose, after all, and someone doing that service for Safehold can surely be permitted to spend the rest of his days in humble circumstances and quiet prayer.

Howdy Jeff,

Thanks again for the truly excellent points!

You're right about Archbishop Maik probably not being native to Dohlar, but I have some memory of a local family connection of some kind, possibly by marriage but AMF of HFaF probably has the details, but after so many years there I think Dohlarans will see him as theirs, which will be the important thing at that time.

You're quite right about the remaining CoGA nations seeing little further benefit in the jihad once the MHoG is beaten this summer, though I don't see Delferahk being bothered much more in this war by either side since Haven not Howard is the overwhelmingly primary theater.

And right again regarding Harchong; once the MHoG is broken the empire's ruling bureaucrats will be far less willing to still stand with the Go4, despite whatever Clyntahn wants, desires, demands or expects.

His reaction to their probable very polite and flowery refusal to further help the temple at its most dire could be quite entertaining.

While your argument for letting the eastern KotTL families stay on their lands is certainly potent, I doubt many in the alliance especially the army will be willing to give them a pass, although taking their other named serfs away might be considered enough punishment by some, personally I doubt many will stay on their eastern lands to find out, but some kind of political deal isn't impossible.

The problem might then be their wealth permitting if not encouraging them to mechanize [we can't quite say motorize ] and thus compete with far fewer farm or estate workers, who admittedly will have far better pay, freedom, and authority in their own self government thanks to alliance support; NTM it makes trying to eliminate steam power and the other advances far more difficult for the post war CoGA to push, so it may depend on what goals the inner circle see as most critical.

The Border States may have overlooked qualities, they did after all produce some 204,000 rifles in ~2&1/2 years or 1 for every 500 persons, apparently a much higher production rate than the temple lands accomplished, an incongruity that still needs to be explained.

What Siddarmark wants to do with them will be very interesting, since they will no longer be the BS any longer, but the republic may feel there are too many people in all 11 nations to absorb at the moment at least, but I suspect those actually bordering the republic will be absorbed soon, although the alliance may not announce or detail its more limited plans immediately to keep the rest in suspense, especially the eastern KotTL.

Their most likely plan would involve forming them into republics of course [albeit smaller], and a league or confederation of republics led by Siddarmark is very likely.

Its very interesting to note if not ponder the fact that by the end of this war this year or next that almost half Safehold's population will have had their governments changed since the war began, that does not bode well for the remainder over the next 5-10 years, let alone until the return of the archangels.

Is a thoroughly reformed CoGA possible?

In some places mainly as a national church such as Dohlar, Silkiah ans the ex-BS, yes.

Which Merlin might be quite willing to accept since the core of the organization and doctrine will have been so changed by the required reforms and recognition of all the corruption the SSK has documented etc.

"Confession is good for the soul- err church".

Having Rhobair publicly admit all the CoGA's corruptions over the last thousand years will be something the CoGA will never be able to take back, and while the right wing empires may attempt to keep it from their populations, all future pilgrims will know, OWL's broadsides will still be going up, and eventually they'll have to give it up, but probably not before the next war.

L


[quote="JeffEngel"][quote="lyonheart"]Hi Jeff Engel,

Thanks for the good ideas.

What happens to the CoGA [does Merlin get his wish and fulfill his oath?] will be fascinating to read.

My somewhat tongue-in-cheek suggestion of finding a range of acceptable lies is considerably reduced by what we know the inner circle especially Maikel will accept.

However, if the cease fire that ends this war, an actual peace treaty being an impossibility since the CoGA right wing nations would strenuously object and revolt, can last long enough to only carry out joint tribunals it might accomplish some justice at the temple and vicarate level at least after all, but don't hold out too much hope.[/quote]


I'm a lot more hopeful about Safehold states being interested in peace if the Church allows it. Really - what national or dynastic interest is being served by the war now or in the foreseeable future?

Annexing chunks of Siddarmark isn't a dream still in any responsible Dohlaran or Desnairian head. Rahnyld surely isn't harboring ambitions of stealing Charisian trade now!

Delferahk's king strongly suspects he's been used, lied to, and manipulated by the Church and has suffered the destruction of his port city and sea-born trade as a result - and they nearly assassinated his relatives, under his care. And however the war turns out, Delferahk isn't getting stronger out of it.

Harchong's bureaucrats and aristocrats are getting their graft taken and their military reputation called into question finally. They had a shiny new navy - not anymore! And now the jihad has put modern guns into the hands of so many serfs, along with military training. That cannot end well. The most a jihad offers them is the prospect of those armed serfs not coming home. But that at least is something that's likely to be arranged before any ceasefire or peace agreement, at least in large (enough?) part - the Church isn't going to give up while it has Harchong In Arms on its side still.

The Border States certainly haven't got the muscle to carry on a jihad on their own, and some of them may well be "Silkiah in the West" - ready enough to become Siddarmark.

The Temple Lands will go as the Church will, though if the church families could be assured of remaining well-off aristocrats, they'd have fine dynastic, secular reasons to get out of a losing war before it was too late.

So what's keeping states in the jihad, when they haven't anything left to gain? Fear of creditors, fear of inquisitors, sincere religious sentiment. Fear of creditors is vanishing. The Church is borrowing from [i]them[/i] now. Fear of inquisitors is serious, but that relies entirely on the Inquisition having the backing of the Church [i]and[/i] the acquiescence of the locals. If the Church has to make peace or die, the Inquisition will either follow that line or become heretics themselves. And if the Church is utterly, clearly losing, and Inquisitors are seen as bullies taking good men, women, and yes, sometimes kids off to be tortured and killed... well, locals may quit tolerating them and then they're hosed.

That leaves sincere religious sentiment - the kind of thing ultimately keeping Duchairn fighting this jihad. But again, if the Church out of Zion is willing to make peace - if the Church out of Zion seems to bear no resemblance to the kindly parish priests, the wise Bedardist teachers, the gentle Pasqualate healers - and if the Church of Charis is demonstrating that it's no monster, and is in fact just those kind priests with their [i]own[/i] archbishops thank you! - then sincere religious sentiment stops arguing for jihad. It argues for all the children of God on Safehold to act like one family again, even if they've chosen to live in different households with different rules.
[quote]
Having a Dolaran like Staiphan Maik direct them would emphasize Dohlar's increasing importance at a critical time, besides his probable honest reputation among his co-workers and age group throughout the priesthood would reassure many fearing a reformist revenge even when they know its more than justified.
[/quote]Minor nit - is Maik Dohlaran? I'd assumed he was of a level in the clergy where priests were shuffled around, and that he was of Temple Land or Border State birth. In any case, by now it's arguable he's "gone native" like Archbishop Gairlyng in Corisande, and his age and reputation should deliver the goods you have in mind.
[quote]
Whether Rhobair insists on being the first and confesses all his faults NTM the gross mistakes and crimes of the Go4, there are going to be many where the available facts are too few and murky to insist on capital punishment, so life at hard labor might be the best until more evidence is found, according to your four criminal classes.

L[/quote]
Maybe. Still, the Inquisition and SSK can between them be counted on to be thorough, albeit for very different goals. And if the evidence in many cases isn't sufficient for the very harshest punishment, the important things - responsible Church leadership and thorough reform - can still be served just getting those to whom nothing more than a bad smell sticks out of power. The appointment to take it up with God can wait.

And disclosure is more important than punishment anyway. Duchairn has oh so much he can disclose, after all, and someone doing that service for Safehold can surely be permitted to spend the rest of his days in humble circumstances and quiet prayer.[/quote]

lyonheart wrote:You're quite right about the remaining CoGA nations seeing little further benefit in the jihad once the MHoG is beaten this summer, though I don't see Delferahk being bothered much more in this war by either side since Haven not Howard is the overwhelmingly primary theater.

Right. Delferahk is practically out of the war - and contentedly so, and probably would be quite happy to normalize relations with Charis and be able to put ships on the water again. The Church isn't bothering to whip them into re-entry into the war, and they're not eager to resume it on their own. Once other nations get into the same circumstances, I would expect (often enough, anyway) the same sort of openness to reconciliation.

And right again regarding Harchong; once the MHoG is broken the empire's ruling bureaucrats will be far less willing to still stand with the Go4, despite whatever Clyntahn wants, desires, demands or expects.

His reaction to their probable very polite and flowery refusal to further help the temple at its most dire could be quite entertaining.

I am so happy I am not the expensive and fragile furnishings in his quarters, yes. I suspect it will be less a refusal and more a protestation of inability - which may be accurate, but even if they could keep putting more of their stuff into Charisian or Siddarmark meat-grinders, they're going to start declining to, however much they like Temple orthodoxy. They're simply going to be more interested in retaining orthodoxy - in terms of serf and slave control - at home than trying (dangerously, expensively, and unsuccessfully) to re-introduce it to Siddarmark and Out Islands. Think of it as Trotsky versus Stalin re world revolution versus "socialism in one country", only on the opposite side of the ideological spectrum. "Thank you for your ambition and ideological purity, Comrade Clyntahn, but we can't risk losing it at home anymore."

When wars go wrong, war aims get adjusted. War aims for the Temple nations are becoming "get out of this without becoming Corisande".

While your argument for letting the eastern KotTL families stay on their lands is certainly potent, I doubt many in the alliance especially the army will be willing to give them a pass, although taking their other named serfs away might be considered enough punishment by some, personally I doubt many will stay on their eastern lands to find out, but some kind of political deal isn't impossible.

Yeah. It's a point with a lot of potential for mess. Wars hurt, even the winners, so there's reason to end them short of getting everything the winner could dream of. For that matter, the wars can kill off the slaves and serfs the winners in this case may be aiming to free by fighting on. If it comes to that, isn't an incomplete victory better than a hollow one? I suspect it would be, but an incomplete victory is still going to leave an unstable situation, and Border States and Temple Lands with fundamental institutions brought into question and the authorities ultimately behind them shaken to the core will be in for rough ride. An apt comparison there may be Eastern Europe from the collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact to today. It's not satisfying to sympathetic onlookers, but it's much, much harder to articulate and implement anything for outsiders to do about it that would create strong net positive outcomes.

The problem might then be their wealth permitting if not encouraging them to mechanize [we can't quite say motorize ] and thus compete with far fewer farm or estate workers, who admittedly will have far better pay, freedom, and authority in their own self government thanks to alliance support; NTM it makes trying to eliminate steam power and the other advances far more difficult for the post war CoGA to push, so it may depend on what goals the inner circle see as most critical.

The Border States may have overlooked qualities, they did after all produce some 204,000 rifles in ~2&1/2 years or 1 for every 500 persons, apparently a much higher production rate than the temple lands accomplished, an incongruity that still needs to be explained.

Yes. It suggests a fairly large quantity of efficient craftsmen for their size, especially given their military limitations. That in turn suggests that they may really be "West Silkiahs", or "North Dohlars", albeit with (perhaps) a somewhat greater social conservatism than Silkiah and trade based on canals rather than the sea as in Dohlar.

What Siddarmark wants to do with them will be very interesting, since they will no longer be the BS any longer, but the republic may feel there are too many people in all 11 nations to absorb at the moment at least, but I suspect those actually bordering the republic will be absorbed soon, although the alliance may not announce or detail its more limited plans immediately to keep the rest in suspense, especially the eastern KotTL.

I don't think Siddarmark is interested in annexing areas that aren't either (1) historically theirs, (2) interested in being annexed, or (3) necessary to their defense. Border States definitely aren't (1); I doubt they are (2) in their leadership class at least; and defensive purposes can be achieved by exercising a combination of friendly relations with the Border States that adopt Siddarmark-friendly positions and terrifying those that adopt Siddarmark-hostile ones. Think a classical approach to minor nations by a neighboring superpower.

Siddarmark has so much business already in hand, since the Sword of Schueller effectively turned its western half into so many hostile (if underpopulated, infrastructure-crippled) Border States. It has to re-annex, and then re-integrate, half its territory.

Their most likely plan would involve forming them into republics of course [albeit smaller], and a league or confederation of republics led by Siddarmark is very likely.

It's an open question how ambitious the victors would want to be that way. Organizing them into republics may well offend local sentiments so much as to awaken hostile nationalism - it did not endear revolutionary France to the rest of Europe. Maybe Siddarmark would settle for compliant princedoms while encouraging slow, locally-tolerable transition to what amounts to republics in all but name. Certainly a fond ally of the Empire of Charis can get along with aristocratic regimes that are open to talent and have strong traditions of human rights and the rule of law.

Its very interesting to note if not ponder the fact that by the end of this war this year or next that almost half Safehold's population will have had their governments changed since the war began, that does not bode well for the remainder over the next 5-10 years, let alone until the return of the archangels.

Is a thoroughly reformed CoGA possible?

In some places mainly as a national church such as Dohlar, Silkiah ans the ex-BS, yes.

Which Merlin might be quite willing to accept since the core of the organization and doctrine will have been so changed by the required reforms and recognition of all the corruption the SSK has documented etc.

Right. For their part, I don't think anyone on Charis' side is determined to ram the Church of Charis down anyone's throat. It's enough to make sure it's available for anyone who wants it in what can work as the Empire of Charis, and to survive as an example outside it. That's already enough to get reform along quite tolerable lines running elsewhere.

In a lot of ways, insisting on the minimum for peace and security in victory is the best way of eventually getting all you could want as the result of natural processes unleashed across the border. Impose justice, republicanism, etc. on Harchong or the Border States and it will be tainted with the shame of defeat and the stigma of an alien ideal. Allow them to work it out for themselves and it will belong to them. Go on, let the enemy sue for peace as intact states to avoid being utterly defeated Corisande - and let them thereafter come around to the same reforms that conquered Corisande was allowed to make for itself.

"Confession is good for the soul- err church".

Having Rhobair publicly admit all the CoGA's corruptions over the last thousand years will be something the CoGA will never be able to take back, and while the right wing empires may attempt to keep it from their populations, all future pilgrims will know, OWL's broadsides will still be going up, and eventually they'll have to give it up, but probably not before the next war.

It would be delicious irony if the conservative nations forbade the pilgrimages the Writ requires, because of the radical ideas pilgrims would be exposed to in Zion.

Great posts, guys... My only comment here has to do with how hazzardous it can be to assume you can set up republics or other forms of representative government in places with no tradition of it. I can only think of a handful of instances where that has worked out well...

Don

Agreed, I can think of none, without a military presence.

Those in charge tend to resist any change in their status.

dan92677 wrote:Agreed, I can think of none, without a military presence.

Those in charge tend to resist any change in their status.

Machiavelli said it best
`And let it be noted that there is no more delicate matter to take in hand, nor more dangerous to conduct, nor more doubtful in its success, than to set up as the leader in the introduction of changes. For he who innovates will have for his enemies all those who are well off under the existing order of things, and only lukewarm supporters in those who might be better off under the new.'

'Theocracy hasn't worked out well, Siddermark has a history of Republic governance but the Monarchy\Empires seem to have some solid structures.

Aristocracy with enlightened despots and Representative houses (lords and parliment) seem to be the path forward

dwileye13 wrote:

dan92677 wrote:Agreed, I can think of none, without a military presence.

Those in charge tend to resist any change in their status.

Machiavelli said it best
`And let it be noted that there is no more delicate matter to take in hand, nor more dangerous to conduct, nor more doubtful in its success, than to set up as the leader in the introduction of changes. For he who innovates will have for his enemies all those who are well off under the existing order of things, and only lukewarm supporters in those who might be better off under the new.'

'Theocracy hasn't worked out well, Siddermark has a history of Republic governance but the Monarchy\Empires seem to have some solid structures.

Aristocracy with enlightened despots and Representative houses (lords and parliment) seem to be the path forward

At the risk of sounding pessimistic, enlightened despots are usually in short supply.

Don

n7axw wrote:
At the risk of sounding pessimistic, enlightened despots are usually in short supply.

Don

What would you call Caleb and Sharlean, True Power corrupts but we are in Weber's World

dwileye13 wrote:

n7axw wrote:
At the risk of sounding pessimistic, enlightened despots are usually in short supply.

Don

What would you call Caleb and Sharlean, True Power corrupts but we are in Weber's World

I'm not saying non-existent. I'm saying in short supply. Hard to come up with one if needed...

n7axw wrote:

dwileye13 wrote:
What would you call Caleb and Sharlean, True Power corrupts but we are in Weber's World

I'm not saying non-existent. I'm saying in short supply. Hard to come up with one if needed...

You are absolutely right but it is good we have an Empire with idealistic yet very well grounded leadership . . . Thank you RFC (by the way, could we have some more - please )