peke wrote:Concerning supply routes, most of it would depend on pacifying west Siddarmark and defeating - or making peace (unlikely) - with the Border States and Silkiah.
The original proposal seemed to promise an end-run around the Border States. It's moved to a selective occupation of the Temple Lands. Here, it seems to be a benevolent but full occupation of the Temple Lands, with supply routes possibly through the Border States. (Or through the Gulf of Dohlar, but that will require either supplies all the way from Chisholm or Corisande, or purchased from a then-friendly-enough Dohlar or Harchong, I guess.)
I don't object to changing plans - it's a reasonable response to changed circumstances or knowledge - but it does mean that you get different problems and possible objections and may lose some prior advantages.
But I think that you're overestimating the effectiveness of any guerrilla movements that may arise. Think back on Corisande. The situation there was as bad as it would be on this side: economy getting hammered by the scarcity of trade (though not food, I think), foreign HERETIC army occupation, and to top it off, genuine popular outrage for the alleged murder of a well-respected ruler.
If the Charisians play it smartly, the negative effects of the occupation can be minimized. Reopening trade relations with Siddarmark, for example, which will likely have a good surplus of harvested crops for trade, and would be a conduit for Charisian-made goods and foodstuffs. Basically, if the trade and supply situation in the occupied territories can be normalized, it's more than likely that the people will simply shrug their shoulders and adopt a "life goes on" attitude. And for any guerrilla movements to succeed, they absolutely NEED popular support. I think people would take a dim view of any "holy guerrilla fighters" that make a habit of burning down the granaries that keep the city fed, or attacking the supply caravans that keep those granaries stocked.
Sadly, radicals have tested methods for taking their own us-versus-them attitude and forcing it on would-be moderates. The occupiers need to be able to defend the moderate body of the occupied population from the radicals, or allow them the means to do so and secure their allegiance to their own vision of the state to trust them to do so.
Corisande had a provisional government - the best, under the circumstances, that the existing tradition could provide - that concluded peace with (surrender to) Charis, and the Charisian occupation was very light and allowed/required Corisande to do most of its own policing. It's going to be tricky to impossible to do anything of the sort in the Temple Lands, where authority runs right into the secure Temple. Maybe Charis can make collaborators (it's good when they're on our side!) of some mayors and bailiffs, but the central authority is going to be the hardest nut to crack, not a partner for negotiated compliance.
One thing that may have helped in Corisande and may help in the Temple Lands is that there isn't a strong sense of nationalism to violate with occupation and capitulation. "Corisande" was and still is an entity that stood far above the units of actual loyalty: village, town, county, duchy perhaps. The Temple Lands are pretty much just that: vast estates of Church families and the Church itself. If you come in as the army of another nation, you may count on the shrug, with little enthusiasm to topple you on behalf of whichever Knight of the Temple Lands or all of them together. If you come in as a heretic horde, bent on defiling Langhorne's own Temple... you may be in for trouble. Certainly the vicarate would prefer the latter impression and work to cultivate it. From their point of view, I'd hesitate to count on it, but from the Charisian one, I'd hate to count on them failing.
And as for weapons and supplies, same thing. If the guerrillas don't have widespread support, they won't be able to effectively wage war. After the Church's sweep for firearms with which to arm the MHoGatA, there can't be many left in the Border States or Silkiah. And weapon and supply caches are exactly the sort of things the Seijin's network can pounce upon. Again, Corisande. If the guerrilla members have no access to a support network to arm, train, and supply them, their threat quotient goes down to almost zero.
Thoughts, anyone?
Roving bands of terrorists that the occupation government cannot find or stop don't need much in the way of weaponry to cause serious problems. Granted, if you're thinking only in terms of what you have between moving into the Temple Lands and the fall of the Temple, that may be tolerable from the occupiers' point of view.
We haven't seen much in the way of calls for the nation in arms, encouragement of popular rebellions. The Church hoped for them in Charis, Chisholm, and Corisande, but what they got has only been attempted aristocratic coups, terrorism by infiltrated agents, and a tiny amount of inspired home-grown terror. Some of that may be simply that the authority of Zion just doesn't run that deep in the Out Islands - the Church the people there care about is the
local Church, which has carried on more or less as ever, perhaps better, without interference from Zion. And the Sword of Schueler must have wrecked havoc with Zion's popularity in Siddarmark.
If Charis and Siddarmark can enter the Border States, the Temple Lands, Dohlar, etc., not as heretic occupiers but as simply another state and a gentle force to detach the local church from Zion, they may enjoy the same relative acceptance as Charis got in Corisande - not exactly friendly, but with very few popular white-hot fires of rage and wrath. In that case, the Allied occupation really can be just quick reaction forces in case of serious rebellion, and police duties left to local collaborators. Happily, there's no crop-burning under this scenario, and the siege of the Temple won't have worse than curious onlookers facing it on the other side.