Who among the Go4 will be the one to get killed first?

My money's on Trynair. I think he's the weakest member of the Go4 at this time.

My analysis is as follows:

Trynair's power was twofold: first, he was effectively the Church's policymaker, given that GV Erek was his puppet, and second, he was the political animal of the four, with great influence over the many kings and nobles of the world.
At the beginning of the series, Trynair was in a dead heat with Clyntahn for the title of "biggest, baddest" among the Go4, while Duchairn and Maigwair were relegated to the bench; Duchairn because the Church was so stupidly rich, so no reason to be overly careful with expenditures, and Maigwair because the Church had no army to speak of, so he had no real powerbase.

Now, however, Things Have Changed. There are no longer kings and nobles to woo into the Church's service, and tap-dancing politics have given way to the Inquisition's mail-fisted demands. Almost all that remains to him is GV Erek. Clyntahn's already strong powerbase has grown all out of proportion with the Holy War and the Inquisition's responsibility in it. Duchairn's power has also grown greatly, as balancing the Church's finances and supplies has become of the utmost importance. And Maigwair, with a VERY large and well armed army under his command, has in fact become a much larger player.

If Clyntahn starts looking for scapegoats, Trynair will be the one to go. The other two have become too important - critical maybe - to the Church's war effort.

Thoughts, anyone?

peke wrote:My money's on Trynair. I think he's the weakest member of the Go4 at this time.

My analysis is as follows:

Trynair's power was twofold: first, he was effectively the Church's policymaker, given that GV Erek was his puppet, and second, he was the political animal of the four, with great influence over the many kings and nobles of the world.
At the beginning of the series, Trynair was in a dead heat with Clyntahn for the title of "biggest, baddest" among the Go4, while Duchairn and Maigwair were relegated to the bench; Duchairn because the Church was so stupidly rich, so no reason to be overly careful with expenditures, and Maigwair because the Church had no army to speak of, so he had no real powerbase.

Now, however, Things Have Changed. There are no longer kings and nobles to woo into the Church's service, and tap-dancing politics have given way to the Inquisition's mail-fisted demands. Almost all that remains to him is GV Erek. Clyntahn's already strong powerbase has grown all out of proportion with the Holy War and the Inquisition's responsibility in it. Duchairn's power has also grown greatly, as balancing the Church's finances and supplies has become of the utmost importance. And Maigwair, with a VERY large and well armed army under his command, has in fact become a much larger player.

If Clyntahn starts looking for scapegoats, Trynair will be the one to go. The other two have become too important - critical maybe - to the Church's war effort.

Thoughts, anyone?

Trynair is now vital to the Group of Four's internal workings as lubricant between the large clashing gears of Inquisition, Army, and Finance. He's perpetually working to keep enough of the peace between Duchairn and Clyntahn to keep the Church working as an entity. Magwair may side with Clyntahn for fighting the war, or with Duchairn for doing so practically, but he's not good enough with people (by a long chalk) to negotiate mutually workable resolutions to conflict.

Clyntahn may not appreciate that. I suspect he does - wearing his cunning politician hat, when it's not knocked off in place of his fanatic, brute, or glutton ones. If he loses enough control that he does make a scapegoat of Trynair, the lubricant is gone and Duchairn and Magwair are on notice that they and their interests are expendable whenever Clyntahn gets ticky enough. Either of those factors could make for the collapse of the Go4, the jihad, and the Church in that order - both of them assure it.

They're in this together, stuck with one another. It doesn't mean that Clyntahn will definitely not succumb to some of his vices and kill someone, but it does mean that if he does, the rest will fall at least from power and possibly from freedom and life too soon.

But yes, if it does happen, Clyntahn getting Trynair killed is maybe the likeliest combination of perp and victim: Clyntahn is the most likely to reach for murder as a solution or way to relieve tension, and Trynair is the most apparently expendable one.

JeffEngel wrote:

peke wrote:My money's on Trynair. I think he's the weakest member of the Go4 at this time.

My analysis is as follows:

Trynair's power was twofold: first, he was effectively the Church's policymaker, given that GV Erek was his puppet, and second, he was the political animal of the four, with great influence over the many kings and nobles of the world.
At the beginning of the series, Trynair was in a dead heat with Clyntahn for the title of "biggest, baddest" among the Go4, while Duchairn and Maigwair were relegated to the bench; Duchairn because the Church was so stupidly rich, so no reason to be overly careful with expenditures, and Maigwair because the Church had no army to speak of, so he had no real powerbase.

Now, however, Things Have Changed. There are no longer kings and nobles to woo into the Church's service, and tap-dancing politics have given way to the Inquisition's mail-fisted demands. Almost all that remains to him is GV Erek. Clyntahn's already strong powerbase has grown all out of proportion with the Holy War and the Inquisition's responsibility in it. Duchairn's power has also grown greatly, as balancing the Church's finances and supplies has become of the utmost importance. And Maigwair, with a VERY large and well armed army under his command, has in fact become a much larger player.

If Clyntahn starts looking for scapegoats, Trynair will be the one to go. The other two have become too important - critical maybe - to the Church's war effort.

Thoughts, anyone?

Trynair is now vital to the Group of Four's internal workings as lubricant between the large clashing gears of Inquisition, Army, and Finance. He's perpetually working to keep enough of the peace between Duchairn and Clyntahn to keep the Church working as an entity. Magwair may side with Clyntahn for fighting the war, or with Duchairn for doing so practically, but he's not good enough with people (by a long chalk) to negotiate mutually workable resolutions to conflict.

Clyntahn may not appreciate that. I suspect he does - wearing his cunning politician hat, when it's not knocked off in place of his fanatic, brute, or glutton ones. If he loses enough control that he does make a scapegoat of Trynair, the lubricant is gone and Duchairn and Magwair are on notice that they and their interests are expendable whenever Clyntahn gets ticky enough. Either of those factors could make for the collapse of the Go4, the jihad, and the Church in that order - both of them assure it.

They're in this together, stuck with one another. It doesn't mean that Clyntahn will definitely not succumb to some of his vices and kill someone, but it does mean that if he does, the rest will fall at least from power and possibly from freedom and life too soon.

But yes, if it does happen, Clyntahn getting Trynair killed is maybe the likeliest combination of perp and victim: Clyntahn is the most likely to reach for murder as a solution or way to relieve tension, and Trynair is the most apparently expendable one.

True. The death of ANY of the Go4 would be a potentially disastrous turn of events for them. My point wasn't whether one of them is expendable (because none of them are) but rather which one of them was the least able to avoid being turned into an eventual scapegoat.

As for peacemaker, I think that, if Trynair goes, that hat would go to Duchairn. He's had some practice at occasionally convincing Clynthan that some things are simply unavoidable, and making him go along with it.

Thoughts, anyone?

peke wrote:True. The death of ANY of the Go4 would be a potentially disastrous turn of events for them. My point wasn't whether one of them is expendable (because none of them are) but rather which one of them was the least able to avoid being turned into an eventual scapegoat.

As for peacemaker, I think that, if Trynair goes, that hat would go to Duchairn. He's had some practice at occasionally convincing Clynthan that some things are simply unavoidable, and making him go along with it.

Thoughts, anyone?

My 2 cents say Duchairn will be the likeliest scapegoat. Why? Because Clyntahn, even now, still underestimates the role the economy plays for the Jihad. He is convinced that, if he only put enough Inquisitors to the task, he can command anything he want and will get it at once. So as soon as he find a proper pretext he will get rid of Duchairn.

Well, it's all depend on whatever course take the war. The Clyntahn authority is far from invunerable; even the inquisitors soon would start to have doubts at least about who command them and why thing gone from bad to worse decpite all their efforts.

My vote is Maigwair.

Trynair is no threat and is afraid of Clyntahn.
Duchairn is doing good work-and Clyntahn thinks he's cowed and a coward.
Maigwair has a physical power base and someone "needs" to be blamed for the military reverses. To Clyntahn's way of thinking he can be replaced because his skill set can be most easily duplicated. (I disagree.)

Trynair may not be as strong, relatively, as he used to be, but coordinating and managing the secular governments is his job, and is fairly vital right now.

No, Trynair wouldn't get 'scapegoated', if Clyntahn's position gets weakened significantly, or publicly, and he perceives himself or his position further threatened or weakened by Trynair, then Clyntahn might decide to move against Trynair, but not before then.


The mostly likely candidate from the Go4 to be turned into a scapegoat is Magwair - he is, after all, in charge of the Temple Guard, and the military forces of the CoGA. Said military forces have been performing rather poorly of late. Clyntahn may decide it is time for a purge and to give the attached Inquisitors/political officers even more authority over military operations.

Kytheros wrote:Trynair may not be as strong, relatively, as he used to be, but coordinating and managing the secular governments is his job, and is fairly vital right now.

No, Trynair wouldn't get 'scapegoated', if Clyntahn's position gets weakened significantly, or publicly, and he perceives himself or his position further threatened or weakened by Trynair, then Clyntahn might decide to move against Trynair, but not before then.

Trynair may be blamed for each defection of a secular state from the jihad and their upcoming disinterest in contributing too strenuously. Silkiah and Dohlar are not long for the war, and they will not keep fighting to the bitter end. (Dohlar may go down fighting to the last soldier and sailor, the poor honorable fellows, but after that, the safe civilian ministers will throw it in.)

The mostly likely candidate from the Go4 to be turned into a scapegoat is Magwair - he is, after all, in charge of the Temple Guard, and the military forces of the CoGA. Said military forces have been performing rather poorly of late. Clyntahn may decide it is time for a purge and to give the attached Inquisitors/political officers even more authority over military operations.

That could be rough - if he blames Magwair and Temple Guard leadership for failures and gives them the axe, then the Inquisition is up for discredit if the failures continue (as they will, if not accelerate). I think Clyntahn is canny enough to see that and hasn't got a relationship with reality quite so strained as to ignore it.

I liked all the posts, but what I think that everyone is not including in their calculations is that Clyntahn totally hates Trynair for making him eat crow over the Ferayd incident, and although Clyntahn doesn't hold the other too in high regard, he will try to use Trynair as the scapegoat.

none of the group of 4 can allow one of them taken down by the inquisition, as it would potentially mean in the future the inquisition will go after them later on.
Also, while the head of the church military force could be blamed for the failure of the battles, but the inquisitor has been also issuing orders to the troops and his own people, which could be blamed due to the interference of these orders with their original instructions.
I bet the strain of hteir alliance and the failure of the crusade will force the collapse of the group, or the rest of church rising up against them.