Discrediting the COGA - How?

The one thing I can't visualize as the series plot winds down in the next 2-3 books is "How is the entire population of Safehold enlightened as to the fraudulent nature of the scripture as it regards the history of Safehold and the Church of God Awaiting" It sure isn't going to be as simple as just "announcing the facts in a press release", and no matter how well it's presented it's going to take literally hundreds of year to convince a significant percentage of the population of the truth. It can't be done by reprogramming the population one by one, because nobody has an information port any more, and besides, there's a "Marching Chinese" element involved as well.

Are we going to be fed some major "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!" handwaving by the Author? I hope not, but I can't visualize any way that the entire historical and theological mindset of a population of millions can be reset in less than many centuries.

Any comments?

Philip Stanley

Hi Philip Stanley,

First, have more faith in out master storyteller.

Second, keep in mind this was a process that was always expected to take time, ie generations, and as some have pointed out, the series were originally intended to roughly cover a generation in each book or even skipping one or two, IIRC.

That has gone by the wayside at the moment, thanks to all the wonderful characters RFC created in the first books, at least for now, but the expectation of many religious wars has been there from almost the beginning helps define what is being fought and by who.

Personally, my sense of RFC is that he's professionally opposed to 'hand wavium' as he is to military porn, NTM any sudden 'Deus ex machina' solutions either.

So I don't think Merlin intends to convince every sheepherder in Sodar or the far corners of Harchong that the CoGA they grew up believing in is wrong by tomorrow or the end of next year; rather he's begun a process, like an infection if you like, since Merlin has used that metaphor, to gradually change what was possible for Safeholdians to think.

This war will probably end with the alliance in control of not just the EoC and Siddarmark, but Silkiah, the BS, and the eastern KotTL, with considerable influence in Dohlar, potentially over 400 million people- ie 40+% of Saf3ehold's population, that can now think new things they had never considered let alone been permitted to think before.

That's enough to really get all of Safehold on a path to thinking new things.

The remaining CoGA powers are not immune to this paradigm transformation; they must adapt their thinking as well to cope or forever lose in any competition, including trade or war.

Eventually such accommodations will impact even the farthest and poorest parts of the CoGA's remaining domains, including sheepherders in Harchong and Sodar who may hope for greater things for their children and grandchildren.

Regardless of what or when the great reveal occurs, NTM between the obvious changes the next wars will bring and the news Owl's broadsides will provide, more people are going to be able to think their own thoughts sooner than Merlin initially anticipated.

So have hope and trust RFC.

L

Philip Stanley wrote:The one thing I can't visualize as the series plot winds down in the next 2-3 books is "How is the entire population of Safehold enlightened as to the fraudulent nature of the scripture as it regards the history of Safehold and the Church of God Awaiting" It sure isn't going to be as simple as just "announcing the facts in a press release", and no matter how well it's presented it's going to take literally hundreds of year to convince a significant percentage of the population of the truth. It can't be done by reprogramming the population one by one, because nobody has an information port any more, and besides, there's a "Marching Chinese" element involved as well.

Are we going to be fed some major "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!" handwaving by the Author? I hope not, but I can't visualize any way that the entire historical and theological mindset of a population of millions can be reset in less than many centuries.

Any comments?

Philip Stanley

Philip Stanley wrote:The one thing I can't visualize as the series plot winds down in the next 2-3 books is "How is the entire population of Safehold enlightened as to the fraudulent nature of the scripture as it regards the history of Safehold and the Church of God Awaiting" It sure isn't going to be as simple as just "announcing the facts in a press release", and no matter how well it's presented it's going to take literally hundreds of year to convince a significant percentage of the population of the truth. It can't be done by reprogramming the population one by one, because nobody has an information port any more, and besides, there's a "Marching Chinese" element involved as well.

Are we going to be fed some major "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!" handwaving by the Author? I hope not, but I can't visualize any way that the entire historical and theological mindset of a population of millions can be reset in less than many centuries.

Any comments?

Philip Stanley

Hi Philip,

Good questions, but I will take a shot at it and we'll see how we do. First of all, the church has already lost its moral standing with a large percentage of Safehold's population on the basis of its original attack on Charis, the Sword of Schueler and the Inquisition's overall behavior. Even many who firmly adhere to the COGA's doctrine are deeply uneasy over the disaster the COGA has created.

Secondly the Jihad which has been conducted in God's name has not prospered. If God was so upset with Charis' innovating, why hasn't God intervened on the side of the church? Given people's capability for denial and rationalization, answers to those questions will certainly be offered. But the cold, hard reality will still be there. The Church lost the Jihad and Charis is still there. According to the church's own teaching, that shouldn't be so.

Finally, the innovating will not stop at the end of the war. I would imagine that places like Desnair and Harchong will try to sustain the old orthodoxy. But the result of that will be that they fall further and further behind, not merely militarily, but economicly. The contrast between a prosperous Charis and Siddarmark and the COGA countries will be so stark that those countries will be reduced to colonial status unless they too begin working around the proscriptions and innovating. The alternative will be to sell their raw materials for finished products as the wealth gravitates toward the more progressive parts of Safehold.

Theologically, new explanations will eventually displace the old orthodoxy as people seek ways of ordering their lives in a new context where the old rules no longer fit the game. At first many, perhaps even the majority, will cling to the old orthodoxy for dear life in an attempt to reclaim the stability of the past. But their grandchildren will no longer remember a time when the COGA ruled supreme and enforced it's will on all of Safehold. They will come to question the proscriptions since those parts of Safehold seem to prosper by violating them. No curse from heaven. No rakurai strikes. Humm...perhaps... It becomes a variation of the old parable about someone having the nerve to say out loud that the emperor is wearing no clothes.

None of this necessarily happens smoothly. Quit to the contrary, the adjustments could very bumpy with a lot of trauma and lots of additional violence. But it will happen, one way or the other.

Don

Hi Don,

Many kudos and thanks for your far better expression of I was trying to say!

Given what we old fogies have seen in the last 50 odd years, the contrast on Safehold in 40-50 years will be almost impossible for the children to believe their grandparents.

How great the world changes will be in ~17-18 years when the archangels are due back should be interesting as I suspect well over half the population will be drawn into the innovation vortex, since Desnar, Dohlar, Delferahk, NTM South Harchong at least, and even Sodar [if my "Buy Sodar" suggestion as a refuge for escaped slaves is carried out] will all be interacting with Charis and Siddarmark then than they will after the current war.

L

n7axw wrote:

Philip Stanley wrote:The one thing I can't visualize as the series plot winds down in the next 2-3 books is "How is the entire population of Safehold enlightened as to the fraudulent nature of the scripture as it regards the history of Safehold and the Church of God Awaiting" It sure isn't going to be as simple as just "announcing the facts in a press release", and no matter how well it's presented it's going to take literally hundreds of year to convince a significant percentage of the population of the truth. It can't be done by reprogramming the population one by one, because nobody has an information port any more, and besides, there's a "Marching Chinese" element involved as well.

Are we going to be fed some major "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!" handwaving by the Author? I hope not, but I can't visualize any way that the entire historical and theological mindset of a population of millions can be reset in less than many centuries.

Any comments?

Philip Stanley

Hi Philip,

Good questions, but I will take a shot at it and we'll see how we do. First of all, the church has already lost its moral standing with a large percentage of Safehold's population on the basis of its original attack on Charis, the Sword of Schueler and the Inquisition's overall behavior. Even many who firmly adhere to the COGA's doctrine are deeply uneasy over the disaster the COGA has created.

Secondly the Jihad which has been conducted in God's name has not prospered. If God was so upset with Charis' innovating, why hasn't God intervened on the side of the church? Given people's capability for denial and rationalization, answers to those questions will certainly be offered. But the cold, hard reality will still be there. The Church lost the Jihad and Charis is still there. According to the church's own teaching, that shouldn't be so.

Finally, the innovating will not stop at the end of the war. I would imagine that places like Desnair and Harchong will try to sustain the old orthodoxy. But the result of that will be that they fall further and further behind, not merely militarily, but economicly. The contrast between a prosperous Charis and Siddarmark and the COGA countries will be so stark that those countries will be reduced to colonial status unless they too begin working around the proscriptions and innovating. The alternative will be to sell their raw materials for finished products as the wealth gravitates toward the more progressive parts of Safehold.

Theologically, new explanations will eventually displace the old orthodoxy as people seek ways of ordering their lives in a new context where the old rules no longer fit the game. At first many, perhaps even the majority, will cling to the old orthodoxy for dear life in an attempt to reclaim the stability of the past. But their grandchildren will no longer remember a time when the COGA ruled supreme and enforced it's will on all of Safehold. They will come to question the proscriptions since those parts of Safehold seem to prosper by violating them. No curse from heaven. No rakurai strikes. Humm...perhaps... It becomes a variation of the old parable about someone having the nerve to say out loud that the emperor is wearing no clothes.

None of this necessarily happens smoothly. Quit to the contrary, the adjustments could very bumpy with a lot of trauma and lots of additional violence. But it will happen, one way or the other.

Don

There are a number of forces at work here that will discredit not just the CoGA but also the theology as well.

First, the Church itself has long since lost its moral authority and semblance of political and economic omnipotence. Outright defeat would be a total disaster of course and Merlin would certainly favor it but I'm guessing that he'd settle for a peace settlement whereby the Church is forced to negotiate from a position of outright weakness in the eyes of all Safeholdians (a figurative gun to their head). Merely negotiating with the Charisian Empire and the Church of Charis as equals would establish the Church's weakness. An actual peace agreement that not only recognizes Charis (and now Siddarmark's) complete independence from the Church (remember that it was designed as a planetary wide government despite the medieval society it governs) and ensure tolerance of Reformists in the remaining Church-controlled territories would forever eliminate the chance that things might go right back to the way they were.

Second, the Inner Circle is likely to expand considerably in 20 years and it would a good idea to start raising groups of children in isolation with the truth and give them a real comprehensive education. Doing so would create a cadre of scientists, technicians and soldiers who are up to date on the technology in Nimue's Cave.

Third, the abject poverty of the average Sodaran sheepherder, Desnarian peasant and Harchongian serf is actually an advantage in some senses. Their being mostly poor and illiterate means that they have to accept the Church's interpretation of the Writ to survive and remain incurious is likely to take a serious hit once it becomes clear the Church lost the Jihad (and you can bet the Inner Circle will ensure that information spreads despite the Church's efforts to suppress the truth). If the priest who preaches loyalty to God, His Church and the secular authorities loyal to it every Wednesday no longer has moral legitimacy, it'll be hard for those secular realms to turn the clock back.

Forth, given the current dire economic straits the Church is in, the various teaching orders are likely to suffer extreme manpower shortages and people would need to learn how to farm, husband animals, deal with illness and injuries, council the troubled and handle all the other problems the Church usually dealt with all on their own. That too is likely to lead to independence of thought.

Fifth, Charis is likely to continue to innovate and dominate the world economically (along with Siddarmark). Secular realms such as Desnair, Dohlar and Harchong will not be able to remain idle each for its own reasons. They will have to follow Charis' example or become economic vassals of the Charisian Empire.

Finally, a generational gap is likely to form, where the young are enticed by the Church of Charis and the old cling to the CoGA for dear life. The CoGA will have trouble recruiting new priests, monks and lay brothers and sisters since they won't have enough money to do so. Younger people would then have a choice between wallowing in poverty (but remaining on good terms with God) or going to Charis or Siddarmark and make something of themselves (while getting to a church that doesn't tell them they're sinning by being curious).

Snipping plenty with which I haven't a quarrel...

thanatos wrote:Second, the Inner Circle is likely to expand considerably in 20 years and it would a good idea to start raising groups of children in isolation with the truth and give them a real comprehensive education. Doing so would create a cadre of scientists, technicians and soldiers who are up to date on the technology in Nimue's Cave.

Gnaah. The poor kids won't be in a position to deal with the rest of Safehold in that case. Better, I think, to work on picking out clever, mentally flexible sorts as young as practical with the traditions the Brotherhood and SSK each have in place; introduce them to the Inner Circle; get them nanites so they can be expected to have healthy lives and long careers; and deploy them according to their talents and interests out in the world, in semi-isolated communities (various monasteries and abbeys at least), and/or in the Cave, so they can cover the whole spectrum of helping Safehold along from where it is now, economically and socially, through to the restoration and advancement of the Terran Federation tech base.

If it so happens that some people living mostly or entirely in the Cave choose to have a family started there, I wouldn't see it as appropriate to disallow it, but it'd be a terribly isolated upbringing that would leave a child poorly suited to living anywhere else for a long time. They may need to use the whole TF medical tech base, for living longevity and cryo, just to live long enough to spend their later adult years in a full society.

Third, the abject poverty of the average Sodaran sheepherder, Desnarian peasant and Harchongian serf is actually an advantage in some senses. Their being mostly poor and illiterate means that they have to accept the Church's interpretation of the Writ to survive and remain incurious is likely to take a serious hit once it becomes clear the Church lost the Jihad (and you can bet the Inner Circle will ensure that information spreads despite the Church's efforts to suppress the truth). If the priest who preaches loyalty to God, His Church and the secular authorities loyal to it every Wednesday no longer has moral legitimacy, it'll be hard for those secular realms to turn the clock back.

It would, but I imagine the lowest rung of parish priest - and therefore the most numerous and/or the ones with most of their careers still ahead of them - aren't die-hard conservatives, heavily invested in the current social order, but just people with more education trying to help their parish get through their days and years, mark life's big triumphs and tragedies, and help make sense of it in the context of their shared spiritual beliefs: entirely like most priests and ministers working directly with their communities now.

If and when the Church and those secular authorities are looking more like problems for that priest's people than useful authorities, and when they also look weak enough to ignore or overthrow - plenty of those priests will, slowly or quickly, reluctantly or with zeal, lead their people in those revolutions. Those priests at least are literate. Broadsheets or even (Nahrmahn and OWL can have some fun) specifically delivered pamphlets, can bring those parish priests around, or at least encourage them to adopt a benign neutrality toward Reformers and the CoC.

Of course, that does still leave it hard for Temple Loyalist and conservative realms to turn back the clock. I just think that the parish priests (and cloistered monks and nuns), as a class, can be as much a part of the solution as of the problem.

Forth, given the current dire economic straits the Church is in, the various teaching orders are likely to suffer extreme manpower shortages and people would need to learn how to farm, husband animals, deal with illness and injuries, council the troubled and handle all the other problems the Church usually dealt with all on their own. That too is likely to lead to independence of thought.

Plenty of people who know how to do that around - the entire orders of Pasquale, Truscott, Sondheim, and Bedard. If the Church is having financial problems and a hard time maintaining central authority, well, you then have locally a whole lot of people who may be looking for new employers. Oh, and you've got this tithe paid to Zion which isn't doing much for you, and that you've got not much to fear from not paying either now. Boom, the Church's public service functions at least (including plenty performed by the Orders of Andropov, Hastings, Chihiro, Langhorne, and even Schueller for that matter), its property, its revenue stream, and personnel become the functions, property, revenue, and personnel of a national church and/or a national government.

All of which is likely to foster independence of thought, anyway. You can't command quite the awe telling people what to think when you're the King of Sodar or the Church of Fallos, as the voice of the sole legitimate religion and de facto world government once could. If you feel a need to change your mind and speak your piece, you can just move over the border for another regime - and the local regime, knowing that, may not bother to try thought control.

Fifth, Charis is likely to continue to innovate and dominate the world economically (along with Siddarmark). Secular realms such as Desnair, Dohlar and Harchong will not be able to remain idle each for its own reasons. They will have to follow Charis' example or become economic vassals of the Charisian Empire.

Finally, a generational gap is likely to form, where the young are enticed by the Church of Charis and the old cling to the CoGA for dear life.

Or varieties of conservative national churches, for that matter. I suspect the roller-coaster ride of Reformation England would be a good model for what to expect. If you have less disputed successions than what followed Henry VIII's death, it may be a little calmer - but when royal successions call for the imprimatur of the Church to be recognized, and you are suddenly having to ask which Church... you've a recipe for the same sort of mess that way too.

The CoGA will have trouble recruiting new priests, monks and lay brothers and sisters since they won't have enough money to do so. Younger people would then have a choice between wallowing in poverty (but remaining on good terms with God) or going to Charis or Siddarmark and make something of themselves (while getting to a church that doesn't tell them they're sinning by being curious).

Right on. The most conservative religious option visible now, the CoGA as run by the Temple, is precisely the one with the worst financial prospects. Breakaway Churches that can seize central Church property and direct Church debts to Zion will be a lot better off, but they're also immediately less conservative just for rejecting Zion's authority. How much so remains to be seen. I'm sure the Desnairian Emperor would be quite happy (once he wraps his head around it) with a national Church that directs all Church authority, property, and income in Desnair to him, and that Church is unlikely to be a beacon for freedom and open minds.

But it's also likely to be a really difficult trick to direct all that power and authority somewhere else and lodge it there securely. I'd wish him luck, if it weren't an abomination.

Hi JeffEngel,

Kudos for some excellent points.

I've not been in favor of the cave for orphans suggestions for the same reasons.

The idea of distant monasteries and convents being dedicated to chemistry and physics etc kind of amuses me, while it seems far more practical and gets the knowledge and training where it can be used.

I wouldn't be surprised if Nynian in her various guises were to support orphanages in Siddarmark forex whose faculty might include inner circle members, who're also SSK, to encourage the kids to think in the right directions.

Given how crucial the local priests, convents and monasteries in Zebediah were in promoting the reformist agenda {NTM accepting the EoC], I think you're spot on that the local priest and nuns etc as a class can be quite a force for good change in some places, like possibly Silkiah, Dohlar, and South Harchong.

We have yet to see any Desnarian attempt to forestall the economic trap Desnar is falling into, which will make it much easier for the EoC and Siddarmark if necessary, to clean it up when it all falls apart.

But I too expect several if not most of the CoGA kingdoms to see the advantages of controlling their local version, including its tithes and all property, by regretfully pointing out the now evident corruption in Zion and any treaty or agreement with the heretics as proof not all is right in Zion, so they must sorrowfully [ ] go their own way until the vicarate is fixed, ie meets their standards and agrees with them.

The fun part of the above is that to justify going their own way, the local CoGA will have to play up the temple's corruption, using all of Nynian's data, and OWL's broadsides and pamphlets etc, across their realms, in effect spreading the reformist message to justify their own greed for power and wealth, which ought to disgust the honest and truly religious, not just the devout right wingers.

It will be fun to see which reformation models RFC has chosen when that moment arrives, I agree the Desnarian emperor might be the closest to Henry VIII in grabbing all that wealth, especially if the CoGA subsidy won't arrive any more, or the Elector of Brandenburg who chose a sort of middle of the road theological course that had both sides pandering to him.

So one wonders how much the inquisition will be gunning for him.

The possibilities are so intriguing.

Of course that's why we're waiting for more.

L

JeffEngel wrote:Snipping plenty with which I haven't a quarrel...

thanatos wrote:Second, the Inner Circle is likely to expand considerably in 20 years and it would a good idea to start raising groups of children in isolation with the truth and give them a real comprehensive education. Doing so would create a cadre of scientists, technicians and soldiers who are up to date on the technology in Nimue's Cave.

Gnaah. The poor kids won't be in a position to deal with the rest of Safehold in that case. Better, I think, to work on picking out clever, mentally flexible sorts as young as practical with the traditions the Brotherhood and SSK each have in place; introduce them to the Inner Circle; get them nanites so they can be expected to have healthy lives and long careers; and deploy them according to their talents and interests out in the world, in semi-isolated communities (various monasteries and abbeys at least), and/or in the Cave, so they can cover the whole spectrum of helping Safehold along from where it is now, economically and socially, through to the restoration and advancement of the Terran Federation tech base.

If it so happens that some people living mostly or entirely in the Cave choose to have a family started there, I wouldn't see it as appropriate to disallow it, but it'd be a terribly isolated upbringing that would leave a child poorly suited to living anywhere else for a long time. They may need to use the whole TF medical tech base, for living longevity and cryo, just to live long enough to spend their later adult years in a full society.

Third, the abject poverty of the average Sodaran sheepherder, Desnarian peasant and Harchongian serf is actually an advantage in some senses. Their being mostly poor and illiterate means that they have to accept the Church's interpretation of the Writ to survive and remain incurious is likely to take a serious hit once it becomes clear the Church lost the Jihad (and you can bet the Inner Circle will ensure that information spreads despite the Church's efforts to suppress the truth). If the priest who preaches loyalty to God, His Church and the secular authorities loyal to it every Wednesday no longer has moral legitimacy, it'll be hard for those secular realms to turn the clock back.

It would, but I imagine the lowest rung of parish priest - and therefore the most numerous and/or the ones with most of their careers still ahead of them - aren't die-hard conservatives, heavily invested in the current social order, but just people with more education trying to help their parish get through their days and years, mark life's big triumphs and tragedies, and help make sense of it in the context of their shared spiritual beliefs: entirely like most priests and ministers working directly with their communities now.

If and when the Church and those secular authorities are looking more like problems for that priest's people than useful authorities, and when they also look weak enough to ignore or overthrow - plenty of those priests will, slowly or quickly, reluctantly or with zeal, lead their people in those revolutions. Those priests at least are literate. Broadsheets or even (Nahrmahn and OWL can have some fun) specifically delivered pamphlets, can bring those parish priests around, or at least encourage them to adopt a benign neutrality toward Reformers and the CoC.

Of course, that does still leave it hard for Temple Loyalist and conservative realms to turn back the clock. I just think that the parish priests (and cloistered monks and nuns), as a class, can be as much a part of the solution as of the problem.

Forth, given the current dire economic straits the Church is in, the various teaching orders are likely to suffer extreme manpower shortages and people would need to learn how to farm, husband animals, deal with illness and injuries, council the troubled and handle all the other problems the Church usually dealt with all on their own. That too is likely to lead to independence of thought.

Plenty of people who know how to do that around - the entire orders of Pasquale, Truscott, Sondheim, and Bedard. If the Church is having financial problems and a hard time maintaining central authority, well, you then have locally a whole lot of people who may be looking for new employers. Oh, and you've got this tithe paid to Zion which isn't doing much for you, and that you've got not much to fear from not paying either now. Boom, the Church's public service functions at least (including plenty performed by the Orders of Andropov, Hastings, Chihiro, Langhorne, and even Schueller for that matter), its property, its revenue stream, and personnel become the functions, property, revenue, and personnel of a national church and/or a national government.

All of which is likely to foster independence of thought, anyway. You can't command quite the awe telling people what to think when you're the King of Sodar or the Church of Fallos, as the voice of the sole legitimate religion and de facto world government once could. If you feel a need to change your mind and speak your piece, you can just move over the border for another regime - and the local regime, knowing that, may not bother to try thought control.

Fifth, Charis is likely to continue to innovate and dominate the world economically (along with Siddarmark). Secular realms such as Desnair, Dohlar and Harchong will not be able to remain idle each for its own reasons. They will have to follow Charis' example or become economic vassals of the Charisian Empire.

Finally, a generational gap is likely to form, where the young are enticed by the Church of Charis and the old cling to the CoGA for dear life.

Or varieties of conservative national churches, for that matter. I suspect the roller-coaster ride of Reformation England would be a good model for what to expect. If you have less disputed successions than what followed Henry VIII's death, it may be a little calmer - but when royal successions call for the imprimatur of the Church to be recognized, and you are suddenly having to ask which Church... you've a recipe for the same sort of mess that way too.

The CoGA will have trouble recruiting new priests, monks and lay brothers and sisters since they won't have enough money to do so. Younger people would then have a choice between wallowing in poverty (but remaining on good terms with God) or going to Charis or Siddarmark and make something of themselves (while getting to a church that doesn't tell them they're sinning by being curious).

Right on. The most conservative religious option visible now, the CoGA as run by the Temple, is precisely the one with the worst financial prospects. Breakaway Churches that can seize central Church property and direct Church debts to Zion will be a lot better off, but they're also immediately less conservative just for rejecting Zion's authority. How much so remains to be seen. I'm sure the Desnairian Emperor would be quite happy (once he wraps his head around it) with a national Church that directs all Church authority, property, and income in Desnair to him, and that Church is unlikely to be a beacon for freedom and open minds.

But it's also likely to be a really difficult trick to direct all that power and authority somewhere else and lodge it there securely. I'd wish him luck, if it weren't an abomination.

lyonheart wrote:But I too expect several if not most of the CoGA kingdoms to see the advantages of controlling their local version, including its tithes and all property, by regretfully pointing out the now evident corruption in Zion and any treaty or agreement with the heretics as proof not all is right in Zion, so they must sorrowfully [ ] go their own way until the vicarate is fixed, ie meets their standards and agrees with them.

The fun part of the above is that to justify going their own way, the local CoGA will have to play up the temple's corruption, using all of Nynian's data, and OWL's broadsides and pamphlets etc, across their realms, in effect spreading the reformist message to justify their own greed for power and wealth, which ought to disgust the honest and truly religious, not just the devout right wingers.

Another, scarier direction they could take is to claim that Zion has fallen to heresy in treating with Charis, rather than corruption in the Go4 and jihad etc., forcing the loyal, orthodox king sorrowfully to establish a provisional church from here. The archconservatives may be able to reconcile themselves to that, but it will be hard to avoid clashes with Charis, Siddarmark, their allies and even their reluctantly peaceful neighbors at that point. A canny politician may try to spin it as this-worldly co-existence combined with other-worldly expectation of their damnation and resolve to remain spiritually isolated from the heretics. But that's a real tightrope act, and would require strongly rejecting the expectation PeterZ sees in Safehold theology of collective responsibility for staying orthodox.

It will be fun to see which reformation models RFC has chosen when that moment arrives, I agree the Desnarian emperor might be the closest to Henry VIII in grabbing all that wealth, especially if the CoGA subsidy won't arrive any more, or the Elector of Brandenburg who chose a sort of middle of the road theological course that had both sides pandering to him.

So one wonders how much the inquisition will be gunning for him.

It's an option. It's not a weak possibility, but I'd bet it's less likely than a sort of French model: Catholic-on-our-terms, because you really need us. Figure nominal allegiance to Zion but with most of the tithe action going immediately back into Church hands in Desnair and specifically into the Church services that the Emperor and ministers most care about.

It does open up questions about Desnair's direction. I think it is penetrating some brains there that their industry and commerce are too backward for this era. If it's penetrating their brains that their politics and social structure are too, they're going to be stomping on those lines of thought hard. So figure a dawning effort to modernize economically while maintaining or transforming the power of the aristocracy. I would not be optimistic about that in their shoes but it's not strictly hopeless in the medium-term. A Church that can help maintain popular compliance with the aristocracy would be just what they would want - if they can get and keep that.

With national Churches a fact or a threat, whatever state remains "loyal" to Zion and in physical control of it will be able to treat it almost as its own national Church. Think Reformation-era Spain with Italy in little warring states with large foreign backers. The Temple Lands and Border States may easily become that sort of Italy, leaving North Harchong in Spain's role.

Alternatively, if Harchong suffers massive revolutions, the Temple Lands and Border States could be unified into a single large and powerful state, on the model of late 19th century German Empire, under the flag of a new orthodoxy or some sort of "reformed" Church that backs a sort of aggressive nationalism. That won't be a comfortable neighbor for Siddarmark at all, and might start biting off chunks of anarchic Harchong and restoring them to (some variant of) their fathers' religion.

Great posts guys... I'm not sure what the model will be, but I'm reminded that the monastery in which Luther resided when he posted the 95 Theses was over to him by the elector and became home to him and his family within ten tears... He used the extra space to board college students...

Don

SPOILER ALERT







Here's a more believable idea.
Have OWL and Merlin make personal journals of all the major players; Shan Wei, Pei Wei, Langhorne, Bedard, Schuler, ... asking forgiveness of the people of Safehold for what was done to them/for them in the name of survival of the human race. Express sadness and contrition. Have Langhorne say why he 'had to destroy' Alexandria. Honesty with regrets. Don't name the evil threat outside. Leave it vague. Say there will be another vault to open in 250 years with further explanation of this threat. This does nothing to discredit the founders and gives all a chance at reconciliation. Not saying people will believe but then they have an option.