Possible spoiler? Cut the head off the serpent...

They might not have to cut off the head. If they destroy their army and navy, they force the church into an untenable position. They spent more than several fortunes on the war, and untold people have dies. This was supposed to be aholy war, with god's backing, so how could they loose.
Churhc infighting int hte leadership, and the harm done by the inquisition would cause them to turn o nthemselves. They might be forced into an isolated position with very few allies left.
The church is cripple financially and their reputation is in tatters.
If the the empire forces the church to forgive/transfer any loans or debt to charisian church or the imperial family, the ame for the republic. As well as some reparations, the public recognition of hteir wrong doing will harm them so much more than direct military action.

So here I am - re-reading MT&T for about the fifth time (ahhhhh the miracle of an eReader on a long overseas flight) and what do I come upon?

April, Year of God 896
Chapter XI Kings Harbor, Helen Island, Kingdom of Old Charis, Empire of Charis
About 2/3 of the way through the chapter...

Caleb is speaking out loud in a meeting: "I'm sure he'll [referring to Zhaspahr Clyntahn] get the point when we sail them and a dozen more just like them clear up Hsing-Wu's Passage to Temple Bay and start putting the troops ashore."

This right after he talks about naming the first three King Haarahld's King Haarahld VII, Gwylym Manthyr, and Lainsiar Svairsmahn.

Funny how I didn't pick this up the first few times I read the book. But maybe it subconsciously stuck in my brain when I started writing this topic...

In connection with the concept of the EoC/Republic staging an invasion of Zion, I'd like to see a better map of the region of Zion, the Temple, and Port Harbor. My big question is: why are the Temple and Port Harbor on the west side of the Zion River, but the City of Zion on the east side? That's the way they're depicted in the current on-line map of Safehold, but this arrangement doesn't make sense.
All of the textev we've seen so far says the the city of Zion has grown up around the Temple, and in terms of normal human behaviour that makes sense. That's the way people and societies have behaved in the real world (whatever that is!), and there's no reason to believe the same type of development wouldn't have occurred on Safehold.
If the Temple is located to the west of the Zion River, and Port Harbor is also on the west side, on the shore of Temple Bay, then Zion would never have grown up on the east side of the river (which, as I've pointed out earlier, is a very large, somewhat tidal river, and would be fairly difficult to cross on a routine basis)
Also, considering the amount of commerce which is conducted on Lake Pei, there is probably a second "Port Harbor" on the north shore of the lake to the west of the river)
We definitely need a better map. When HFQ finally appears, check the maps first. A good Zion area map will be a sure clue that the invasion is immanent.

Philip Stanley

Philip Stanley wrote:In connection with the concept of the EoC/Republic staging an invasion of Zion, I'd like to see a better map of the region of Zion, the Temple, and Port Harbor. My big question is: why are the Temple and Port Harbor on the west side of the Zion River, but the City of Zion on the east side? That's the way they're depicted in the current on-line map of Safehold, but this arrangement doesn't make sense.
All of the textev we've seen so far says the the city of Zion has grown up around the Temple, and in terms of normal human behaviour that makes sense. That's the way people and societies have behaved in the real world (whatever that is!), and there's no reason to believe the same type of development wouldn't have occurred on Safehold.
If the Temple is located to the west of the Zion River, and Port Harbor is also on the west side, on the shore of Temple Bay, then Zion would never have grown up on the east side of the river (which, as I've pointed out earlier, is a very large, somewhat tidal river, and would be fairly difficult to cross on a routine basis)
Also, considering the amount of commerce which is conducted on Lake Pei, there is probably a second "Port Harbor" on the north shore of the lake to the west of the river)
We definitely need a better map. When HFQ finally appears, check the maps first. A good Zion area map will be a sure clue that the invasion is immanent.

Philip Stanley

Agree completely with you Philip. The more I look at the online map (which I downloaded so I can zoom in to my heart's content), I am reminded of Istanbul, Turkey - Black Sea to the north, then the navigable waterway down to the Sea of Marmara to the south. While most of the famous religious sites (Hagia Sofia et al) are to the west, the city as a whole grew up on both sides of the relatively narrow waterway / river. And if you zoom out a bit, Istanbul is on the same sort of broad "peninsula" as Zion...

Of course, we don't know too much about the geography in the area, and - like you - I wouldn't want to read too much into the map as it is with the very rough level of detail.

Interesting to speculate, though.

Sharley swore to invade Zion on her skimmer trip to have her checkup in Nimue's cave when she was pregnant. Cayleb has sworn to do it at least twice now, and the phrase "Putting the troops ashore" seems to be a common theme to all their promises.

One issue that hasn't been addressed is the semaphore running to Zion from Hsing-wu's Passage, which would need to be neutralized without tipping off the temple that a fleet was en route.

The Temple itself can be infiltrated and captured by a few hundred burly "pilgrims," who then just need to bar the doors and wait for the fleet to arrive, while amusing themselves chasing down evil vicars...

McGuiness wrote:Sharley swore to invade Zion on her skimmer trip to have her checkup in Nimue's cave when she was pregnant. Cayleb has sworn to do it at least twice now, and the phrase "Putting the troops ashore" seems to be a common theme to all their promises.

One issue that hasn't been addressed is the semaphore running to Zion from Hsing-wu's Passage, which would need to be neutralized without tipping off the temple that a fleet was en route.

The Temple itself can be infiltrated and captured by a few hundred burly "pilgrims," who then just need to bar the doors and wait for the fleet to arrive, while amusing themselves chasing down evil vicars...

Just from looking at Hsing-wu's passage on the map, it should be possible to slip in out of sight of the mainland or the semaphore system. The main danger of detection would come from small fishing boats or coastal craft.

I'm not sure that it matters much, though. The Temple's main forces are too far away to intervene even if the Temple gets warning.

Don

n7axw wrote:Just from looking at Hsing-wu's passage on the map, it should be possible to slip in out of sight of the mainland or the semaphore system. The main danger of detection would come from small fishing boats or coastal craft.

I'm not sure that it matters much, though. The Temple's main forces are too far away to intervene even if the Temple gets warning.

Don

You're probably right - I originally envisioned the entire campaign to capture the temple after AMF, when they'd have had to use galleons rather than steam powered battleships.

The Temple Guard is probably spread more thinly in Zion and the surrounding areas now than before the invasion of Siddarmark, so militarily it's a good time to invade Zion. Ecclesiastically though, Safehold isn't ready for it.

RFC said this much more eloquently than I can in a previous thread, but the leadership of the CoGA needs to become so discredited that the reaction of the Safeholdian in the street will no longer be "The heretics invaded Zion and seized the temple!" but rather "The EoC finally did something about those crooked vicars living in Zion - and especially in the Temple!"

So there needs to be a massive "hearts and minds" campaign, for which Aivah has provided quite a lot of useful ammunition which is sitting in a chest in Charis. Time to use it...

When enough people are tired of the war, sick of losing loved ones in a struggle they simply can't win, and realize the extent of the corruption in the vicarate, then invading Zion and seizing the Temple will not only be militarily feasible, but socially acceptable.

Hi Don,

I've posted before that I think BGV could board his army in Spinefish Bay after defeating the MHoG northern sub army and reach Port Harbor in 2-3 5days [~2800 miles or 187-280 mpd] with a good chance at surprise since the ICN schooners swept Hsing-wu's passage last year, doing it again won't be unexpected this year.

They could easily randomly raid the semaphore stations until they became completely unreliable, then capture and repair and replace for alliance use, quite aside from any operations Merlin might have to run.

Given its winter equipment and experience, it could stay the winter without the trauma other armies might face.

So we might really see Hell's or Zion's foundations quiver by the end of HFQ.

Although knowing RFC, what are the odds there's another cliffhanger that again seems to throw almost everything into doubt?

L

n7axw wrote:

McGuiness wrote:Sharley swore to invade Zion on her skimmer trip to have her checkup in Nimue's cave when she was pregnant. Cayleb has sworn to do it at least twice now, and the phrase "Putting the troops ashore" seems to be a common theme to all their promises.

One issue that hasn't been addressed is the semaphore running to Zion from Hsing-wu's Passage, which would need to be neutralized without tipping off the temple that a fleet was en route.

The Temple itself can be infiltrated and captured by a few hundred burly "pilgrims," who then just need to bar the doors and wait for the fleet to arrive, while amusing themselves chasing down evil vicars...

Just from looking at Hsing-wu's passage on the map, it should be possible to slip in out of sight of the mainland or the semaphore system. The main danger of detection would come from small fishing boats or coastal craft.

I'm not sure that it matters much, though. The Temple's main forces are too far away to intervene even if the Temple gets warning.

Don

Hi McGuiness,

In regard to your last paragraph, that getting the common reaction to the war's cost and devastation to be relief, while you set the table very well so I wish it would be the case, the war has simply been too short for such exhaustion to settle in.

Defeating the MHoG will probably mean Go4 attempts to replace it with new armies from the Temple Lands to face the alliance armies advancing due west from Siddarmark, with fear and devotion creating new huge new armies, at least on paper.

Given the time constraints to train such new armies their battlefield value may be rather limited, especially as the time to train new followup replacements grows ever shorter; or trying to fight the scout snipers in a guerrilla war for which they're untrained NTM in unknown territory [assuming they're sent far away from their homes] while the popularity of the alliance political agenda, ie ending serfdom and the general aristocratic or theocratic rule [in the KotTL] etc ought to provide the alliance plenty of informants.

McGuiness wrote:

n7axw wrote:Just from looking at Hsing-wu's passage on the map, it should be possible to slip in out of sight of the mainland or the semaphore system. The main danger of detection would come from small fishing boats or coastal craft.

I'm not sure that it matters much, though. The Temple's main forces are too far away to intervene even if the Temple gets warning.

Don

You're probably right - I originally envisioned the entire campaign to capture the temple after AMF, when they'd have had to use galleons rather than steam powered battleships.

The Temple Guard is probably spread more thinly in Zion and the surrounding areas now than before the invasion of Siddarmark, so militarily it's a good time to invade Zion. Ecclesiastically though, Safehold isn't ready for it.

RFC said this much more eloquently than I can in a previous thread, but the leadership of the CoGA needs to become so discredited that the reaction of the Safeholdian in the street will no longer be "The heretics invaded Zion and seized the temple!" but rather "The EoC finally did something about those crooked vicars living in Zion - and especially in the Temple!"

So there needs to be a massive "hearts and minds" campaign, for which Aivah has provided quite a lot of useful ammunition which is sitting in a chest in Charis. Time to use it...

When enough people are tired of the war, sick of losing loved ones in a struggle they simply can't win, and realize the extent of the corruption in the vicarate, then invading Zion and seizing the Temple will not only be militarily feasible, but socially acceptable.

McGuiness wrote:

n7axw wrote:Just from looking at Hsing-wu's passage on the map, it should be possible to slip in out of sight of the mainland or the semaphore system. The main danger of detection would come from small fishing boats or coastal craft.

I'm not sure that it matters much, though. The Temple's main forces are too far away to intervene even if the Temple gets warning.

Don

You're probably right - I originally envisioned the entire campaign to capture the temple after AMF, when they'd have had to use galleons rather than steam powered battleships.

The Temple Guard is probably spread more thinly in Zion and the surrounding areas now than before the invasion of Siddarmark, so militarily it's a good time to invade Zion. Ecclesiastically though, Safehold isn't ready for it.

RFC said this much more eloquently than I can in a previous thread, but the leadership of the CoGA needs to become so discredited that the reaction of the Safeholdian in the street will no longer be "The heretics invaded Zion and seized the temple!" but rather "The EoC finally did something about those crooked vicars living in Zion - and especially in the Temple!"

So there needs to be a massive "hearts and minds" campaign, for which Aivah has provided quite a lot of useful ammunition which is sitting in a chest in Charis. Time to use it...

When enough people are tired of the war, sick of losing loved ones in a struggle they simply can't win, and realize the extent of the corruption in the vicarate, then invading Zion and seizing the Temple will not only be militarily feasible, but socially acceptable.

I'm not sure that socially acceptable is a worthwhile criterion for a decision such as this.

The real questions should be as to whether or not the allies can sustain an occupation of Zion once they do it, what the impact on the front lines would be on other theaters of war, the impact on TL morale, how having the chain of command cut off would impact the coordination of Temple armies. And perhaps the biggest question would be whether or not it would shorten the war, thus saving lives.

I'm not sure how this shakes out. It would certainly underline emphaticly the Temple's defeat which I see as a crucial war aim. My own impulse would be, go for it; the sooner the better.

Don