Possible spoiler? Cut the head off the serpent...

Hi all...

I've been a lurker for a long time, and have read (and re-read) all of the series books several times (doing it again as we speak in fact). Love the posts and back-and-forth on the forum.

But I've got a new thought that I don't think has been brought up in any of the topics to date...

I wouldn't call it a spoiler, instead I'd call it pure speculation... But because I talk about current capabilities and ongoing developments, maybe I'm wrong and I welcome your feedback.

Now that Charis is building the King Haaralds, and HAS the iron clad riverboats, and HAS breechloaders, and HAS a well-trained and incredibly agile army, and HAS got everyone's attention focused on Siddarmark, perhaps the time has come for something completely unexpected and audacious?

When I look at the map, I see Hsing-Wu's passage to the north. I see unobstructed access to Temple Bay and (via the Zion River) access to Lake Pei. I see the Temple of God and Zion (effectively) on broad peninsulas that neck down onto the Zion River.

And I ask the question: Why not a large-scale amphibious assault (think Inchon in Korea) to cut off and surround the Temple? Here's my logic - please shoot me down here...
1. Charis is (or will soon be) no longer dependent on the vagaries of wind to drive its warships. Transport galleons sure, but methinks there are ways around that. Charis doesn't have a LOT of coal-fired vessels, but there's no reason why a small fleet of coal-fired riverboats couldn't tow one or even two transports apiece, and even a King Haarald could probably tow several if necessary to keep the invasion fleet together.
2. Coal-fired vessels emit a lot of smoke and would give away any potential invasion long before it could occur. True, but these same coal-fired vessels can do a lot of their travel at night and could "hide" in uninhabited areas during the day (uninhabited as proven through SNARC recon).
3. Loyalist schooners and other commercial vessels could see the invasion force and run to warn Zion. Again, true. But Charisian schooners running ahead of the main force could "snap them up" to prevent a warning from getting through most at least?
4. I don't remember seeing any information about large loyalist forces in or around Zion. If true, then the plan becomes much more feasible. SNARC recon is obviously needed here! Seems to me that Zion has all of its large field forces concentrated well away from Zion.

Lots of other considerations, but it seems to me that a fast, agile invasion force (as Charis has amply demonstrated it has) of 40K to 50K personnel plus attachments (artillery, spotters, logistics, etc) could get the job done pretty quickly.

And oh-by-the-way, the loyalist vicars are all known so filtering them out from the civilian residents of Zion (while time consuming) should definitely be possible. And given the historical "superiority" of the Gand of Four, it's unlikely that any of them have boltholes or escape plans - they simply wouldn't have considered the need for them. Finally, there's the consideration of Ninian's "partisans" to pass "on the ground" intel and keep an eye on all the loyalist vicars if they try to run.

So I think there's an opportunity to cut off the head at relatively low cost. Zion's field armies would still remain individually powerful, but the very success of such an endeavor would prove to the loyalists (whether in Harchong, Desnair, Dohlar, or elsewhere) that maybe "God isn't on their side after all."

I welcome your feedback on my "off the wall" idea...

Already proposed a few times, and I don't see the downside.

Well, the only downside is that if the Temple is in a hopeless position, whatever is under the Temple could awake, before Merlin & Co are ready to deal with it.

But the moment of the Temple being in a hopeless position is getting near, whatever happens; it's just a question in which year exactly it happens.

Another way to push against the Temple is to cut Safehold in chunks and separate them from the Temple. For example, conquering (in some form or fashion) of Dohlar and Silkiah, along with ICN that effectively rules the seas, will cut the connection between Howard and Haven (as far as Temple is concerned) so the Temple will not receive any significant amount of tithes from the south part of Safehold, and also with no tithes from these two realms and Siddarmark, what remains? The Temple Lands and Harchong, that will be about it.

Without money, when they can't fund their army, what will the Temple do? Even getting loans will be hard, because potential lenders will have to think twice about whether there is any chance that the Temple will be in a position to repay anything. And the Temple will also have much less of a power with which to force people to lend to them.

Let me see the COGA operating on 1/5 of the tax base they're used to....

Found the thread you were referring to in your opening statement "Already proposed a few times, and I don't see the downside" and I agree completely.

When the thread was in play, Charis may or may not have been as far along technologically though.

It'll be interesting to see how the idea plays out in my head. I can see both benefits and drawbacks to the amphibious assault idea... As various threads have alluded: we just have no idea how "the technology in the basement" might respond...

WeberFan wrote:Found the thread you were referring to in your opening statement "Already proposed a few times, and I don't see the downside" and I agree completely.

When the thread was in play, Charis may or may not have been as far along technologically though.

It'll be interesting to see how the idea plays out in my head. I can see both benefits and drawbacks to the amphibious assault idea... As various threads have alluded: we just have no idea how "the technology in the basement" might respond...

I would suspect that the "technology in the basement" doesn't react unless confronted with modern tech or someone inserts the key and yells for help. Sinse the key is in Charis with Father Paityr, I doubt that it will happen. If someone else had a key, it probably already been used.

Don

n7axw wrote:

WeberFan wrote:Found the thread you were referring to in your opening statement "Already proposed a few times, and I don't see the downside" and I agree completely.

When the thread was in play, Charis may or may not have been as far along technologically though.

It'll be interesting to see how the idea plays out in my head. I can see both benefits and drawbacks to the amphibious assault idea... As various threads have alluded: we just have no idea how "the technology in the basement" might respond...

I would suspect that the "technology in the basement" doesn't react unless confronted with modern tech or someone inserts the key and yells for help. Sinse the key is in Charis with Father Paityr, I doubt that it will happen. If someone else had a key, it probably already been used.

Don

I'm going to agree with you on this one Don. I think that the command crew never thought that any conventional Safeholdian power, given the way they rigged the game, could ever threaten the temple proper. Or at least couldn't do so without tripping the high tech alarm bells. I think they had only two real fears (renegade Shan-wei followers they somehow missed and the Gbaba). The temple and everything that might be under it are only fail safe contingencies. So is the key. The stored personality in deep freeze under the temple (which is what I think it is) is simply going to awaken on schedule to check up on things, offer a few words of encouragement and then go back into hibernation. Or so whoever it is had planned. I suspect the key to learning more about the temple scheme is in St. Khodys books.

OH and Weberfan, while your speculation has been commented on before, I do agree the technology is getting to the point it might be possible. I think, however, that the Empire of Charis and friends probably want to stabilize the balance on the mainland (and give Siddarmark a little time to recover) before launching a bold new front. Too many simultaneous plots becomes logistically difficult to coordinate or support. And logistics is everything in warfare. Remember "Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics."
Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC (Commandant of the Marine Corps) noted in 1980
(See: http://www.military-quotes.com/forum/lo ... -t511.html for many more)

Larry

There are some interesting upsides to consider when postulating an invasion of Zion. I can think of two, at least, right off the bat:

1) Clyntahn has very carefully arranged it so that the only armed force in Zion are the temple guard; there are no AOG elements in the area at all. The temple guard may be dedicated fanatics, but they're not trained soldiers, and the Empire of Charis highly-trained, professional army should be able to make mincemeat of them fairly handily.

2)The appearance of an armed invasion force in Temple Bay should result in frantic calls to the AOG in Siddermark and the Border States to return to Zion to help repel this invasion. The result of this would be to drastically reduce the number of AOG troops in the Republic and the border states, and thus allow the armies of the the Republic and the Empire of Charis to make major gains in the Republic.

There may be other ancillary benefits as well, but I haven't thought of them yet.

Philip Stanley

Hi WeberFan,

Welcome to the forums, please enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum.

Many of us have developed this concept over several old threads, so welcome to that club too.

Given that BGV could be quite close to Salyk by early to mid summer, only a few 5days from Port Home in Temple Bay, with very good winter equipment so he could comfortably stay in Zion until spring or summer when more alliance armies arrived from the east, some overland.

We have textev that Charis is experimenting with steam powered landing craft, that could go up the Zion River [which may be tidal] to Zion itself overnight presenting the vicarate with a 'fait accompli', that they can't stop even if they had an army right there which they don't because Clyntahn has insisted only his inquisitors [a few thousand at most] be armed near the temple and Zion.

Can you say effectively helpless?

If Clyntahn is still alive by then, that alone seeing its truly and totally his fault might mean that stroke finally strikes.

So yes I think your suggestions are quite feasible.

L

WeberFan wrote:Hi all...

I've been a lurker for a long time, and have read (and re-read) all of the series books several times (doing it again as we speak in fact). Love the posts and back-and-forth on the forum.

But I've got a new thought that I don't think has been brought up in any of the topics to date...

I wouldn't call it a spoiler, instead I'd call it pure speculation... But because I talk about current capabilities and ongoing developments, maybe I'm wrong and I welcome your feedback.

Now that Charis is building the King Haaralds, and HAS the iron clad riverboats, and HAS breechloaders, and HAS a well-trained and incredibly agile army, and HAS got everyone's attention focused on Siddarmark, perhaps the time has come for something completely unexpected and audacious?

When I look at the map, I see Hsing-Wu's passage to the north. I see unobstructed access to Temple Bay and (via the Zion River) access to Lake Pei. I see the Temple of God and Zion (effectively) on broad peninsulas that neck down onto the Zion River.

And I ask the question: Why not a large-scale amphibious assault (think Inchon in Korea) to cut off and surround the Temple? Here's my logic - please shoot me down here...
1. Charis is (or will soon be) no longer dependent on the vagaries of wind to drive its warships. Transport galleons sure, but methinks there are ways around that. Charis doesn't have a LOT of coal-fired vessels, but there's no reason why a small fleet of coal-fired riverboats couldn't tow one or even two transports apiece, and even a King Haarald could probably tow several if necessary to keep the invasion fleet together.
2. Coal-fired vessels emit a lot of smoke and would give away any potential invasion long before it could occur. True, but these same coal-fired vessels can do a lot of their travel at night and could "hide" in uninhabited areas during the day (uninhabited as proven through SNARC recon).
3. Loyalist schooners and other commercial vessels could see the invasion force and run to warn Zion. Again, true. But Charisian schooners running ahead of the main force could "snap them up" to prevent a warning from getting through most at least?
4. I don't remember seeing any information about large loyalist forces in or around Zion. If true, then the plan becomes much more feasible. SNARC recon is obviously needed here! Seems to me that Zion has all of its large field forces concentrated well away from Zion.

Lots of other considerations, but it seems to me that a fast, agile invasion force (as Charis has amply demonstrated it has) of 40K to 50K personnel plus attachments (artillery, spotters, logistics, etc) could get the job done pretty quickly.

And oh-by-the-way, the loyalist vicars are all known so filtering them out from the civilian residents of Zion (while time consuming) should definitely be possible. And given the historical "superiority" of the Gand of Four, it's unlikely that any of them have boltholes or escape plans - they simply wouldn't have considered the need for them. Finally, there's the consideration of Ninian's "partisans" to pass "on the ground" intel and keep an eye on all the loyalist vicars if they try to run.

So I think there's an opportunity to cut off the head at relatively low cost. Zion's field armies would still remain individually powerful, but the very success of such an endeavor would prove to the loyalists (whether in Harchong, Desnair, Dohlar, or elsewhere) that maybe "God isn't on their side after all."

I welcome your feedback on my "off the wall" idea...

Hi Aethor,

Kudos for another very well put excellent post.

The fact that I agree with it so much, has nothing to do with the above analysis, of course.

Taking Dairnyth to isolate Dohlar, Silkiah and Howard from direct immediate communication with the temple has no down side either, including preventing their excess tithes being used by the Go4, although that's not the way they or those nations would put it, the latter being happier about it than the former, of course.

Once the MHoG are toast, the Border States are effectively gone too, not that they were ever a great contributor to the CoGA tax base but a 102 million people is still 102 million tithe payers [~10%] that won't be when the alliance armies pass through to visit on their way to Zion.

We don't know what Northern Harchong's portion of the empire's population is, not to mention the population distribution of the KotTL, but the western KotTL rump and northern Harchong combined might only be around 200 million as you and others have posted; quite a comedown in available tithes from 800 million last year and almost 930 million the year before that, or 977 million back in 892, or barely 20% to sustain the jihad, which isn't likely.

If Duchairn has sold all their secondary properties by then, how much are the remaining first class or primary ones worth now?

One wonders whether the bankers and other bidders etc would still be in Zion by then.

L

Aethor wrote:Already proposed a few times, and I don't see the downside.

Well, the only downside is that if the Temple is in a hopeless position, whatever is under the Temple could awake, before Merlin & Co are ready to deal with it.

But the moment of the Temple being in a hopeless position is getting near, whatever happens; it's just a question in which year exactly it happens.

Another way to push against the Temple is to cut Safehold in chunks and separate them from the Temple. For example, conquering (in some form or fashion) of Dohlar and Silkiah, along with ICN that effectively rules the seas, will cut the connection between Howard and Haven (as far as Temple is concerned) so the Temple will not receive any significant amount of tithes from the south part of Safehold, and also with no tithes from these two realms and Siddarmark, what remains? The Temple Lands and Harchong, that will be about it.

Without money, when they can't fund their army, what will the Temple do? Even getting loans will be hard, because potential lenders will have to think twice about whether there is any chance that the Temple will be in a position to repay anything. And the Temple will also have much less of a power with which to force people to lend to them.

Let me see the COGA operating on 1/5 of the tax base they're used to....

lyonheart wrote:Hi Aethor,

Kudos for another very well put excellent post.

The fact that I agree with it so much, has nothing to do with the above analysis, of course.

Taking Dairnyth to isolate Dohlar, Silkiah and Howard from direct immediate communication with the temple has no down side either, including preventing their excess tithes being used by the Go4, although that's not the way they or those nations would put it, the latter being happier about it than the former, of course.

Once the MHoG are toast, the Border States are effectively gone too, not that they were ever a great contributor to the CoGA tax base but a 102 million people is still 102 million tithe payers [~10%] that won't be when the alliance armies pass through to visit on their way to Zion.

We don't know what Northern Harchong's portion of the empire's population is, not to mention the population distribution of the KotTL, but the western KotTL rump and northern Harchong combined might only be around 200 million as you and others have posted; quite a comedown in available tithes from 800 million last year and almost 930 million the year before that, or 977 million back in 892, or barely 20% to sustain the jihad, which isn't likely.

If Duchairn has sold all their secondary properties by then, how much are the remaining first class or primary ones worth now?

One wonders whether the bankers and other bidders etc would still be in Zion by then.

L

Aethor wrote:Already proposed a few times, and I don't see the downside.

Well, the only downside is that if the Temple is in a hopeless position, whatever is under the Temple could awake, before Merlin & Co are ready to deal with it.

But the moment of the Temple being in a hopeless position is getting near, whatever happens; it's just a question in which year exactly it happens.

Another way to push against the Temple is to cut Safehold in chunks and separate them from the Temple. For example, conquering (in some form or fashion) of Dohlar and Silkiah, along with ICN that effectively rules the seas, will cut the connection between Howard and Haven (as far as Temple is concerned) so the Temple will not receive any significant amount of tithes from the south part of Safehold, and also with no tithes from these two realms and Siddarmark, what remains? The Temple Lands and Harchong, that will be about it.

Without money, when they can't fund their army, what will the Temple do? Even getting loans will be hard, because potential lenders will have to think twice about whether there is any chance that the Temple will be in a position to repay anything. And the Temple will also have much less of a power with which to force people to lend to them.

Let me see the COGA operating on 1/5 of the tax base they're used to....

Just a thought, here, Lyonheart. Given that Southern Harchong is where most of the artisans and manufactories are, it might have a substantially larger population than the north. OTOH, as labor intensive as Harchong's agricultural sector is, that might not be the case too. Still, the thought is worth consideration...

Don

Hi Don,

Quite true.

While South Harchong may enjoy up to three crops a year, its small size is the main limiting factor in my thinking, NTM the hints the north definitely has the greater population, but we don't know the ratio or fraction; which is why I'm being so conservative with figuring around 40 million or just over 20% for now, although I'd prefer more.

Given how Dohlar crams 97 million into less space, 65 million or a third seems quite possible since the land area seems around than twice Dohlar's, but a 2-1 ratio is as far as I'll go until RFC puts it in print.

L

n7axw wrote:*quote="lyonheart"*Hi Aethor,

Kudos for another very well put excellent post.

The fact that I agree with it so much, has nothing to do with the above analysis, of course.

Taking Dairnyth to isolate Dohlar, Silkiah and Howard from direct immediate communication with the temple has no down side either, including preventing their excess tithes being used by the Go4, although that's not the way they or those nations would put it, the latter being happier about it than the former, of course.

Once the MHoG are toast, the Border States are effectively gone too, not that they were ever a great contributor to the CoGA tax base but a 102 million people is still 102 million tithe payers [~10%] that won't be when the alliance armies pass through to visit on their way to Zion.

We don't know what Northern Harchong's portion of the empire's population is, not to mention the population distribution of the KotTL, but the western KotTL rump and northern Harchong combined might only be around 200 million as you and others have posted; quite a comedown in available tithes from 800 million last year and almost 930 million the year before that, or 977 million back in 892, or barely 20% to sustain the jihad, which isn't likely.

If Duchairn has sold all their secondary properties by then, how much are the remaining first class or primary ones worth now?

One wonders whether the bankers and other bidders etc would still be in Zion by then.

L

Aethor wrote:Already proposed a few times, and I don't see the downside.

Well, the only downside is that if the Temple is in a hopeless position, whatever is under the Temple could awake, before Merlin & Co are ready to deal with it.

But the moment of the Temple being in a hopeless position is getting near, whatever happens; it's just a question in which year exactly it happens.

Another way to push against the Temple is to cut Safehold in chunks and separate them from the Temple. For example, conquering (in some form or fashion) of Dohlar and Silkiah, along with ICN that effectively rules the seas, will cut the connection between Howard and Haven (as far as Temple is concerned) so the Temple will not receive any significant amount of tithes from the south part of Safehold, and also with no tithes from these two realms and Siddarmark, what remains? The Temple Lands and Harchong, that will be about it.

Without money, when they can't fund their army, what will the Temple do? Even getting loans will be hard, because potential lenders will have to think twice about whether there is any chance that the Temple will be in a position to repay anything. And the Temple will also have much less of a power with which to force people to lend to them.

Let me see the COGA operating on 1/5 of the tax base they're used to....

*quote*

Just a thought, here, Lyonheart. Given that Southern Harchong is where most of the artisans and manufactories are, it might have a substantially larger population than the north. OTOH, as labor intensive as Harchong's agricultural sector is, that might not be the case too. Still, the thought is worth consideration...

Don