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lyonheart
Fleet Admiral
Posts: 4853
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2009 11:27 pm
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Hi LouisR, This subject has been the topic of quite a few threads. Given how close RFC is holding his cards to his chest, we still don't have enough data to see how he's going solve the apparent impossibility of achieving his objective. I've spent time in winter camps, and my experience was that road marches were better than cross country snow shoeing which was better or easier than skiing [for me at least] and they were nothing like 15-19 miles [just 5-6km IIRC]. My impression is that you're projecting what you'd do in these characters' situations, which partly because you know more than they do is prone to problems, especially if you're smarter than they are. We haven't seen Kaitswyrth since last August or Symkyn since September so our prognostications are likely to be inherently inaccurate, but claiming Kaitswyrth has turned it around seems a bit of a stretch. If Aivahnstyn is his Headquarters, who in charge at the Glacierheart border two hundred miles away, or has he withdrawn everyone there to the city? Having lost 2/3 of his rifles to an inferior force, which if he's competent as you suggest he should know he outnumbered DE roughly 12-1 by now, how much greater firepower does he project Symkyn has now with 4-5 times as many men? We have textev that Kaitswyrth hasn't reorganized his army because he still has his pike-men, so some of your suppositions are suspect. Given the priority the MHoGatA had for rifles since immediately after Kaitswyrth's folly, presuming he's received replacements without textev until after they get theirs is risky. Dohlar's improved weapons supply cycle is far shorter and quicker than Kaitswyrth's from Zion by around 4 times., so they're not comparable. For all we know he's still in the funk he was after he fled to Aivahnstyn, perhaps he's been drunk ever since. It's also quite possible he's spent most of his time inventing a narrative of his great defensive exploits and future plans in his dispatches, like MacArthur did in the Philippines. We should get a snippet on the subject soon I hope. L Louis R wrote:Let me be blunt for a change: Anybody who imagines that Green Valley's projection for the movements of the Army of Midhold - the realistic one - isn't accurate is a blithering idiot who knows f-all about winter warfare. Just to confirm my own experience [I'm trained in winter warfare, but not infantry], I checked with an ex-RCR platoon commander: he would expect to move his troops 30km/day _max_ under arctic/subarctic conditions - using modern mechanical transport for his logistics. And to sustain that pace for 10 days _max_. He figured 25km was more realistic because that wouldn't mean pushing excessively. FYI, the AoM kit list was, except for the sources of the fibres used and the fuel employed, drawn straight from Base Supply at CFB Shilo. I've used all of it myself. And yes, the Canadian Forces does have machines we can use for log support during the Arctic winter. For those who can't interpret the numbers, that's 18.6 and 15.5 miles per day. With troops who'll need a good rest after doing it. At this point, for Green Valley to make another 600 miles, the thaw has to be delayed until close to the end of April. That would surprise an awful lot of people, that would. I'm actually a bit more optimistic than the Baron: I think he does have a chance of making it all the way to Ohlarn before the thaw starts, not just Fairkyn, but without knowing exactly were he is at the beginning of HFQ it's hard to be sure. What he will most definitely not do is get through the Gap, or catch Wyrshym huddled beside his stove. Wyrshym isn't an idiot; at the very least he's going to wonder why Gorthyk Nybar isn't complaining about how cold it is anymore - and take steps to find out. Wyrshym is also not a moral coward. If he has to stare down the Inquisition to operate intelligently, like Ahlverez he will do it. It would be surprising if he doesn't have at least 10, and more likely 20 - 30, days warning before Green Valley can cut the canal behind him. If he's still holding at Guarnak he'll get away clean with everything that isn't already in the Northland or Sylmahn Gaps, because he won't sit still to be cut off - and he's probably good enough to get many the latter troops out even if they're under attack. It would probably look rather more like a rout than he'd prefer, but he can probably do it. The one chance of actually cutting him off would be for all his reserves to be drawn forward by a attack in the gap and somehow pinned so that he can't disengage when the AoM moves down behind him. Given the skill already displayed by his commanders in getting themselves out of cracks, and BGV's reflections on the situation in the Gap, that would be, at best, difficult to accomplish. Don't get too optimistic on this front. As for Kaitswyrth, no I am not suggesting Clyntahn would authorise a withdrawal. In fact, I'm confident he wouldn't. I'm also pretty confident that Kaitswyrth hasn't spent the last 6 months cowering in fear behind the ramparts of Aivahnstyn. For one thing, he's over a hundred miles from the blocking position Symkyn has been holding in the woods down the Daivyn, so there's probably not much happening to keep the memory fresh. For another, your confidence in his TOE is almost certainly misplaced; both his current strength and his equipment are doubtless quite different from the last info from two books ago. I certainly don't recall any textev that the AoG _stopped_ re-equipping its own personnel because it had to deal with Harchong. Reduced and delayed, yes, but not stopped, any more than the Dohlarans did. Don't assume that, just because we haven't had a peek inside the AoGlht since the day they ran head-on into a buzz saw, that means that it hasn't been reorganised, re-equipped and retrained at least as thoroughly as the AoSyl. Getting Kaitswyrth new heavy weapons in particular will have been much, much simpler than getting the same material to Wyrshym. To what extent he'd figured out what to do with it is - because we haven't seen him recently - an open question, but he's a fanatic, not a fool. A _humilitated_ fanatic. That's a weakness that can be exploited, since it might well lead him to decide to stand and fight to the last man, or at least the last Kaitswyrth, but if so you can be sure that he's determined to do so _effectively_. It also means that he's been putting a lot of thought, effort and time into preparing to get his own back. Still, if he decides that he can't stand effectively, he is much less likely to throw good troops after bad than Clyntahn, say, might think suitable. And, if his army does happen to run out of Kaitswyrths, it's a pretty safe bet that command will pass to somebody who is quite aware that forgiveness is easier to come by than permission even in the AoG. A heroic fighting withdrawal would earn Maigwair's approbation. On reflection, I'm not prepared to call this one either way. We simply don't have the data to base a judgement on. Neither do most of the characters. Which is why sending the Army of Cliff Peak _back_ to Cliff Peak now that it doesn't need to worry about the security of its rear is going to seem like a sensible thing to do. *quote="lyonheart"*Hi LouisR, Thanks for the thoughtful post. I'll comment below between the **. Louis R wrote:A couple of things:
I still think you're underestimating the degree to which psychology can trump strategy. The Might Host etc. is Clyntahn's fair-haired child. Unlike those closet Reformists from Dohlar and Desnair [of course they are - they keep on quitting instead of trusting God to hand them the victory!], all they need to do is line up shoulder to shoulder to trample Siddarmark into the mud. What can possibly withstand their inexorable progress. Gunpowder? Piffle! The heretics will shoot themselves dry and be smashed by the weight of the remainder. Why would he _allow_ them to be split up. He might permit some discussion of whether it would make better sense to send them around the north or the south, and even let himself be persuaded to do both [which actually does have a strategic argument in its favour] but it won't be for any merely practical reasons.
**I have to disagree with your whole view of the Go4 dynamics, Clyntahn isn't all powerful; he knows his failures have encouraged Magwair and Duchairn, but he can't stop their continued cooperation.
The failure of the Army of Shiloh will continue that process.
Clyntahn's irrationality may be increasing, but he still doesn't have and hasn't tried to control the MHoG from the textev.
Any such attempt will come latter after they get in theater, which will be at least a couple month's at best, since he won't be able to fault Magwair and Duchairn until then.
Breaking the pattern of Magwair and Duchairn's orders requires some overriding reason, which Magwair and Duchairn being rational won't provide him the excuse for attempting this putsch.**
Sure, Maigwair and especially Duchairn know better, but do you think they'll be able to pry operational control of _this_ force out of Clyntahn's hands? Maigwair can't even be sure who his direct subordinates are going to obey. For that matter, is Maigwair himself proof against the vision of Juggernaut bearing down on the opposition on 4 million legs?
** Yes, Magwair is at least that smart.
Remember he created the AoG, which given all its complexity and even faults still impresses Duchairn and even BGV somewhat, according to their textev thoughts.
Magwair has been exercising operational control while they've been traveling over 2000 miles, so I don't see Clyntahn being stupid enough to try to seize control anytime soon, and the message lag means it'll be too late for him to change the outcome of any battle, no matter what kind of military genius he thinks he may be or have become by then.**
Something you are probably _over_estimating is the significance of the South to either side for a considerable period - likely, for the remainder of the war. You also seem to be forgetting what the object of the exercise has to be for the Allies: they need to _destroy_ the AoG, not allow it to withdraw, lick its wounds further and come back, with or without the Mighty etc. Sure, taking Dairnyth cuts off Kaitwyrth's supply line and puts the alliance back on the Bay of Bess, but what does the AoGht do then? Probably, hightails it back to Lake City, with water transport available most, maybe all, the way to the Sair. Even if Kaitswyrth hasn't learned anything, you can be sure his better divisional commanders have. Let Maigwair get them back in reach and had them over to our friend Bishop Barhnabai, and the AoSyl won't be going anyplace it doesn't want to. The immediate need is to cut Kaitwyrth off in Aivahnstyn, or better pull him into a deployment to the south and east, pin him down and destroy him. Which means that the Army of Cliff Peak has to hook up behind him _now_, not take a holiday on the sea shore. It would make a lot of sense for Eastshare to head to Dairnyth first, then move back up the Fairmyn leaving Hanth to keep the Dohlarans trimmed back, but High Mount should be heading straight to the Daivyn behind Aivahnstyn, hopefully with something going on to distract Kaitswyrth and keep him from noticing or at least thinking that he should maybe ignore the urging he's getting to hold fast.
** How is it you think I don't expect the AoG to be destroyed in detail very soon?
That is, by mid April at the latest.
Given General Symkyn's [GS] superior troops and firepower, I don't think Kaitswyrth will get away.
For some reason you and Anwi seem to keep forgetting him and his 75,000 man army.
Sending EHM up to Aivahstyn would mean Kaitswyrth is occupying the attention of 2 alliance armies that have around twice his effective numbers, I don't see the alliance, especially the inner circle being that stupid.
Given how demented you think Clyntahn is, having him finally grant Kaitswyrth permission to retreat counters your whole argument.
The connecting canal locks won't be fixed until April, Kaitswyrth may not exist by the time he might try to use them if he did get permission.
EHM isn't headed to Dairnyth for a holiday, but to hold and defend the alliance flank, NTM cut the temple's communications with Dohlar, Silkiah and the whole continent of Howard, among other strategically important things; I thought you had seen and argued for that before.
Now I've previously argued that EHM should head for the Daivyn River because I've expected that the MHoG center sub-army would head directly across from the Bedard canal east end to the Charayn Canal to replace Kaitswyrth ASAP in only about 20+ days if they had enough dragons etc.
I've then described how a combination of ironclads and GS on the north shore and EHM on the south might destroy AGC rather easily.**
The AoSyl needs the same treatment, but unfortunately I'm not very sanguine about Wyrshym letting it happen. Ideally, the AoM will slip in behind him while his attention is held by an attack on his forward units out of the Gap. If that happens, his army is gone, and hopefully all its senior commanders killed of captured, but it depends on him not noticing a whole army marching down out of the Ohlahrn Gap until too late. Somehow, I can't see that happening. I'm not at all sure that even Kaitswyrth can be nailed down, although his personality suggests that there's at least a good chance of doing it.
** I'm betting BGV will achieve strategic surprise, and Wyrshym's remaining army down at the lake will be too deep to escape [200-250 miles south of Guarnak in winter] and being caught between both alliance forces will be effectively crushed.
I don't see Clyntahn suddenly authorizing either to retreat, however sensible that might be.
Given all the concern about Ahlverez being condemned from the pulpit for running away, I don't see the same idiot permitting the AoG armies to get away with doing the same, when he hasn't before.
Before the MHoG can begin to move, the Go4 are going to find themselves with a couple fewer armies, allies and a continent than they thought they had..
Expecting them to keep the MHoG wholly intact after that disaster is absurd.
I look forward to your future posts**
*quote="lyonheart"*Hi Anwi,
Given the alliance has 2-3 month's before the MHoGatA gets to the front, I think the alliance has plenty of time to make things much worse for the Go4, forcing them to split it into at least 4 sub armies as I've suggested so many times before.
Regarding whether they're being ready for war, I guess it depends on your definition of trained troops [a few month's training during the winter really won't prepare them for what they're about to experience, and I suspect RFC is going to highlight many of their inadequacies as they get closer to the front lines.
< snip >
Remembering that Kaitswyrth had only around 9,000 rifles at last report while Symkyn has some 75,000 well armed men, Kaitswyrth and what's left of his army aren't long for this world, nor do I expect Wyrshym to last until May either.
Given all the bad news about to happen to their armies the Go4 will have to split up their last army, making it far easier to defeat in detail.
So no, they don't need to concentrate the ICA all up north.
I've previously explained in probably too much detail how one or two ICA/alliance armies working together could defeat the respective MHoGatA sub armies rather easily, especially given the strategic and tactical mastery the ICA has already demonstrated.
I don't see why Symkyn couldn't provide the viewpoint character needed to eliminate Kaitswyrth, since that's how he was first used in MTaT.
< snip >
Given EHM is west and north of DE, having him go further south seems far less efficient than I'd expect from DE, crossing 2 supply lines etc.
Given DE's preference for celerity from the first time we read his interaction with Merlin, I don't think he's moving very slowly now, especially when he has the enemy on the run.
Granted he has to sort out the POW's, and save as many of the ~60-67,000 captured cavalry mounts (how many have to be put down etc) and possibly send them south to those patriotic provinces to restore, since they're rather rare and valuable in the republic right now, but that's probably another thread.
If EHM takes Dairnyth, then Kaitswyrth and any MHoGatA sub army heading west from the Langhorne Canal will soon starve, providing rather more depth for the republic, and enabling Symkyn to flank any sub army headed east via the repaired canals, and cut its supply line behind it.
< snip >
L
*quote*
*quote* Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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