Hi Anwi,
I'll make my usual between **, shall I?
[quote="anwi"]Some comments below.
[quote="lyonheart"]*quote="anwi"*The Langhorne canal is intact. Already in late February, the latest in March, Maigwair and Duchairn will [i]start[/i] to move the MHoG. I assume that a good chunk of the MHoG will be between Lake City and Traynos by mid-April or so. (They'll use the canals while there's still ice on them.) [/quote]
## I understand you think they'll push as quickly as possible despite experience suggesting they wait.
Given that this has been a hard winter, I'm not sure they can.
Because I don't think the lock gates or pumps etc work that well with big chunks of ice in the way.
There may be even prohibitions in the Holy Writ about not abusing the canals by trying to ship to early.
Granted, they might be set aside, but the result could be even more painful for the Go4 in actually delaying the MHoG because now they'll need repairs to the Langhorne.##
[/quote]
They're currently using the Langhorne canal for supplying Wyrshym, presumably by working with sleds. Since the locks won't work, that's reducing the capacity of the canal, but it's still a valid transport route. I was operating under the assumption that there'll be strong pressure on Maigwair and Duchairn to reinforce Wyrshym and Kaitswyrth at the earliest possible point in time. I understand that Duchairn assumes the Langhorne-Hildermoss route (as a water-way) to be operational by about mid-April (depending on the length of the winter this year). Now, if you have a stock of supplies at Lake City (probably true), you can use spare capacities of the still frozen canal to move up leading elements of the MHoG already in March. Might or might not happen.
** That's a possibility, but a slight one I think, given the severity of the winter.**
[quote="lyonheart"]
## Again they'll have to split the MHoG up to deal with the three theater disasters they'll have to deal with by then.
The Langhorne is 1800 miles long, so it will take over 45 days minimum just to get to Lake City since they're still on the Bedard canal over 450 miles from the Langhorne [ie 11+ more days] besides adding ~2.5 more days if they follow the West Wing Lake shoreline with dragons towing them, ie if they left now [and they obviously can't] they'd arrive at the beginning of May, far too late to help either Wyrshym or Kaitswyrth.
[/quote]
Now, there's an interesting point. Duchairn's plan was to have the MHoG encamped along the Langhorne canal. We know that camp No. 4 is at the Bedard canal, so quite some distance away. However, there should be between 80 to 160 camps in total, well distributed between the Border States. So, leading elements of the MHoG might already now be shivering near Mhartynberg. Those should be available no later then end of April. I'd assume that camp No. 4 is not the vanguard but rather the rearguard of the MHoG. My previous assumptions were probably a bit too early for the MHoG, but probably by less than a month.
** Since Camp #4 had over 40,000 men, less than 40 of the same size would settle for the whole MHoG, and the Langhorne is some 450 miles further, so to even reach it, the camps are around a dozen miles apart, all on the south side of the canal, which is possible, but we have no textev that any MHoG are so far advanced as Mhartynberg, so until further textev I'll remain rather skeptical if you don't mind.**
[quote="lyonheart"]
what's to stop the defending alliance armies from truly demolishing the canal locks with the new explosives this time so any further advance by the MHoG will have to go by dragon, and they don't have anywhere near enough dragons!
[/quote]
If that happens, we're at a standstill. The MHoG can't advance without a supply route via canal, IMHO. That would result in a standstill unless the ICA attacks. However, since they've just destroyed the locks, they can only enforce a withdrawal of the lead MHoG units. They could no longer press the attack, because the ICA and SRA are also dependend on canals for large armies.
** Given that the alliance armies are a quarter or less the size of the MHoG sub armies, only ~450 tons per day are needed so just 17 dragon wagons are needed forward the first day, and if extended to around 480 miles over the 15 days while the ICA engineers make repairs, less than 6% of the the MHoG's total for the round trip, which may nor be needed if the locks are fixed enough for the alliance to use, especially if steam tugs rush the fresh supply barges up.
I suspect there's going to come a point where the Go4 et. al. is shocked how the alliance can support its advances because its using steam tugs and possibly a railroad to enable putting enough dragons forward to maintain the advance ahead of the working canal/rail head.**
[quote="lyonheart"]
[On the Army of Justice stragglers reaching Kaitswyrth]
## This a tough or sensitive textev conflict problem.
Because the textev says they got there, but there hasn't been enough time according to the calendar, especially not 45 days.
Obviously 45 days doesn't fit the current narrative.
[SNIP]
I'm afraid a clarification from RFC seems in order, if the pertinent parties will alert him please, we'll be most grateful.
[/quote]
Well, it's only a problem if Kaitswyrth has to be gone by April. If he's still around at Aivahnstyn until May, there's no major issue.
**No, not all all.
The references to them having already arrived, in ~2-3 5days, mean they traveled much more rapidly than cavalry historically has over 900+ miles.
I don't want to intrude on RFC domestic chaos, but this seems a glitch that needs some patching.**
[quote="lyonheart"][quote="anwi"]
I just think that Kaitswyrth won't let himself trapped. He'll probably retreat in time. And ICA units are (currently) not positioned to prevent that.
[/quote]
## How will Kaitswyrth know?
His men don't have winter clothing, he doesn't have any scouts worth mentioning, so the first warning he'll get is when the alliance artillery opens up, when it'll be far too late. [/quote]
Well, if Kaitswyrth hasn't established a wide security parameter around his emplacements and positions, he's fool. I assume he is fundamentally competent. Similarly, he should have secured his supply line with sufficient forces. Just strolling into his rear areas will be a problem even for ICA dragoons. But you are right that Kaitswyrth might be vulnerable to a wide-ranging entrapment. We'll read...
** This is the same Kaitswyrth we're talking about right?
Who's been pretty incompetent when it comes to anything more than slaughtering those who can't fight back?
Just how long a line do you think he's holding?
What proof do you have that he has ANY flank guards?
There's no textev for them at all, and against ICA firepower whatever he had is surely inadequate, unless you've figured out just how much will deter the ICA, then spread that over hundreds of miles before figuring what that leaves for the actual front.
Remember he didn't need any before he met DE, and he's a rather slow learner at best, so since they're well behind him, I think he thinks they're safe.
If his forward line is too thin then the ICA can smash right through as they almost did despite being outnumbered almost 12-1 back in August.
From that experience and given even better weapons, especially new angle guns and ammunition etc for Symkyn, if Kaitswyrth's going to hold any line it's going to have to be rather thick even by AoG standards, NTM with a considerable extra safety factor added, if he's as smart as you think.
I await your description of Kaitswyrth's defense line, its size, length and depth, since you think he's competent, when there's very little proof of that.
Given ~9,000 rifles or even almost 28,000, if all he lost have been replaced though there's absolutely no textev for it; maintaining a 3 deep firing line in a trench etc to try to match the ICA's rate of fire, considerably reduces how long a line he can defend.
Given the danger of open flanks, do you think his camp on the Glacierheart border and Daivyn river is a straight line or enclosed; a circle, square or long rectangle?
Remember, given how long it takes to reinforce a section under attack if the camp is too big, it can't be too long, and if Symkyn attacks in multiple places front and back, Kaitswyrth or whoever's in command is toast.
Even with almost 28,000 rifles [27,648 for 36 AoG divisions], at a yard each means a square almost 4 miles on a side, split by the river, which leave Symkyn plenty of room to flank and trap him, even go deep to Aivahnstyn.
Which given the size and depth of the central theater, is something Kaitswyrth should be thinking about because I'm sure Symkyn is.
How much do you think it takes to cut a canal or river supply line?
I believe Dialydd Mab gave an object lesson.
A squad or platoon of scout snipers alone should do fine, a couple mortar squads is icing on the cake.
What a company or battalion could do overwhelms the imagination.**
[quote="lyonheart"]
##Pyrrhic victories aside, a regiment or two of dragoons and scout snipers could wreak havoc upon a MHoG sub army.
[/quote]
Yes, but even ICA dragoons won't operate beyond enemy lines if their supply line is more than 100 miles long. And they won't operate with mortars or artillery, because you can't move quickly over extended distances with these kinds of loads. I'm not buying into these scenarios. It seems to me they have something of a Charge of the Light Brigade quality...
But I'll grant you: If you could pull off something like this given the terrain, the supply situation and rear area security by the AoG, the rewards would be significant.
**Yep.
They certainly would.
But why do you draw this 100 mile limit for dragoon operations?
Or compare ICA dragoons to the charge of the Light Brigade, when they're about the furthest from them you can get for mounted troops?
Its a rather bizarre and pathetic straw man argument I'm afraid.
Do you know what field artillery means?
The 3" mortars are usually carried on pack horses or mules for the infantry, so why can't they bring them along?
If they have supply wagons, which the do, the artillery can surely come along since they weigh less.
The reason they didn't use them immediately against Brahnselyk etc, was to shift Ahlverez's focus away from the Kyplyngyr forest where EHM was headed, ie a deception not because they weren't with them every step of the way.**
[quote="lyonheart"]
Given the IDE can't afford another AoJ without subsidies they won't get, and Dohlar can't fight or block EHM, Hanth, and DE separately or together, I doubt Clyntahn will expect much from them whatever his propaganda mills may print.##
[/quote]
Oh, Clyntahn will expect a lot - because of loyal subjects, the crisis of the jihad, the mission of Langhorne, and his will. And he'll probably get another army out of Desnair. Only, it'll be inadequate for the role Clyntahn has assigned to it...[/quote]
** Just how inadequate are we talking here; pathetic, totally worthless, or down to don't bother mentioning?
By the time Clyntahn attempts such orders I suspect everything south of Dairnyth will no longer be in direct semaphore contact with the temple, so they'll have more discretion in delaying or answering what messages they do receive.
I strongly doubt another Desnari army in time for this war, since the AoJ was paid for by the CoGA, so aside from changing the CoGA's fraction of Desnair's current gold mining or reducing its internal double tithe etc, I don't see how the Go4 can pay for another when Duchairn is at his wits end to pay for the CoGA's Howard armies.
Even if they could assemble another, this one with half the cavalry, the same number of infantry with only around 17,708 rifles [if they could produce that many fast enough] would be even more pathetic in the face of the roughly a million alliance soldiers with rifles by early 898.
Rather I see the threat of even 3 RSA rifle divisions overwhelming it and liberating whatever else of North Watch province that the RoS wants beyond the upper part protected by the north south mountain range I've mentioned as Silkiah's likely southern border because its defensible.
I don't see it ever getting much north beyond Mahrosa Bay, or some 1600 miles from Thesmar to start with, and if it does go to say Silkiah, the ICA and marines will cut its high road behind it so it will rue the day it did.
L
