HFQ Official Snippet #20

Lyonheart,

If Duchairn et al can't deliver, the offensives commence. That practical threat will get the knights of the temple lands to seriously consider reforming the the Inquisition. That promise might get the Reformists in Siddermark to urge the Lord Protector to accept a truce. The Lord Protector seeing an opportunity to thoroughly reconstitute his army, might well accept the offer.

As I see it, a short reprieve benefits Siddermark most. The CoGA can improve their defenses, however those gains would be far outweighed by the increased size of the RSA fighting with bolt action rifles and ICA mortars. Assuming the Allies have reached as far as the Salkyr Cut (?), there might well be broad based belief that a satisfactory compromise might be reached. Especially if Clyntahn is viewed as the primary cause of the rather core CoGA doctrine. I can see Chisholm supporting the truce rather vigorously. They have escaped the consequences of being directly attacked by the CoGA.

Louis R wrote:And yet again: If Symkyn doesn't need much winter gear, why in Shan-Wei's name would it be an issue for Kaitswyrth?

IIRC, Symkyn is nearly a thousand miles closer to the equator than Kaitswyrth.

Hi LouisR,

Nope, I'm sorry, but you're just rather confused.

I never mentioned immediately ambushing the MHoG on the Langhorne or Bedard, someone else did; as for the Ambyltyn cut [which isn't listed on the Safehold wiki], I warned attacking at such a an obvious choke point was far riskier than elsewhere, so how you construed that as approval is puzzling.

The general invasion of the Border States I referred to was after the MHoG is destroyed or defeated, which I thought was clear from the context, as I hope ambushing along the coastal high road of the Bay of Bess, I'm sorry you got confused.

Regarding the terrain, RFC has told us he has yet to reveal lots of it, NTM roads, canals etc; so we'll have to wait to see but the cut is over a thousand miles from the Charayn Canal or 1500 from the Bay of Bess, so the chances of the terrain there being as mountainous as Sarkyn [or Sardahn according to the online map] is slight.

Since the Langhorne is gravity powered, the 400' high cut merely means a series of locks to climb [or run down from] the plateau behind it, which isn't too much of a surprise given its proximity to the mountains of light ie around 800 miles from Nimue's cave, or rather somewhat opposite the republic border and ~500 miles from Lake City.

Actually I've seen steeper cuts in West Virginia, though Idaho has a few whoppers as well.

I was never a fan of of the pathetic and stupid "Rat Patrol", rather I vastly preferred the true stories of the LRDG, and SAS etc to that nonsense.

NTM its such a demeaning ridiculous straw man argument which was beneath you, I thought.

Evidently I was wrong.

The average population of the BS is around 17 per square mile, which including towns and cities means darn few in the countryside.

then you get orders from your priest to provide a wagon load or two of food and fodder to the 1.6 million man Harchong slave half barbarian army that's supposed to march through in a few 5days, but you know wars are never certain and this one seems to have gone further off the rails than most.

What are the odds especially in the early spring when there's not too much that can be done that you pack your wife and kids, especially your daughters, to the relatives at least 50 miles away, along with sending as much of the livestock as possible also the furthest pastures you can manage.

I suspect the population drops by at least half or two thirds right there.

Then add the panic when some fool 'sees' or thinks he sees soldiers in strange uniforms, and the quarter or third staying drops ever further, regardless of the veracity of the observer.

You'll deliver what was ordered where and when, but you're not staying and you don't want to meet or get involved anymore than you have to, because things are just getting harder, and you have no time to spare, especially since you're watching your neighbor's place while he's watching your livestock etc.

Scout snipers who are careful not to be seen to start with are of course going to reveal themselves to the first locals they see, like the one above, who will immediately tip them off by running to report them.

Right.

Given that 10-20% of the BS people are levelers, I suspect they may have their own watch that keeps the local priest [the nearest inquisitor is at least a hundred miles away] and aristocrat ignorant of most of what they do, so it may be much longer not sooner before the authorities know who in the vicinity.

After its too late.

L

Louis R wrote:You're contradicting yourself.

Up thread you're talking about ambushing the Mighty etc. at places along the Bedard & Langhorne like Ambyltyn. Now you're talking about moving easily through the Border States _after_ destroying the etc. You get one or the other, not both: either you ambush people before they move through, or they aren't there to be ambushed.

And, if you've been watching too many reruns of Rat Patrol, a) that was TV & b) the LRDG was moving very small units - reinforced platoons, essentially - through relatively open desert, not heavy brigade groups across populated country. [Mountainous country, at that, at least near the canals: you don't build 400' cuts in Nebraska or Kansas. You probably don't even need anything that extreme in West Virginia or Kentucky. Western Montana or northern Idaho is probably closer to the mark.] You really don't think that the locals aren't going to notice all those guys in funny uniforms moving through, and maybe mention it to someone?

8quote="lyonheart"*Hi LoiusR,

Certainly immediately given the distance and time.

However since all the BS rifles have been given to the MHoG, there's little to stop the alliance when it does march through sometime in the summer at the latest after the MHoG have been dealt with and the CoGA supporters now find themselves defenseless before the alliance.

Difficult or bad terrain is quite possible, but then that works both ways.

What RFC has in store for us in terms of new map features will indeed be fascinating to read, then to consider the what, why and where etc.

L

Louis R wrote:Rather wildly impractical, IMV: they are indeed enormously strung out, but that string runs all the way back to the Bedard Canal. It's possible, in fact quite likely, that the head of it didn't even get as far as Sarkyn. IOW, completely out of the reach of the Allies, since not only do they need to sweep aside the AoG, they have to overrun the Border States. Judging by the 400-foot cut, that's some seriously rugged terrain down there. Slow going, IOW.

*quote*

Hi LouisR,

Well probably because we have so much textev that the AoG didn't get its winter clothing to the front in time, so its men are salvaging whatever clothing they can from abandoned farms etc since anything is better than nothing, yet they're suffering so much from frostbite in part from a lack of fuel-wood and proper shelter that even basic patrolling is practically non existent.

Thus the scout snipers can sneak up on them when ever they feel like it, besides scout out-of-sight routes around them to bypass and surround them.

It's apparently the ICA standard to equip everyone with winter clothing,but what we know BGV has received is even more specialized, for very active combat operations.

Since Symkyn is some 750 miles south of BGV, ie much warmer, he doesn't need such specialized gear, or so much.

I'm sorry, I thought that it was obvious.

L

Louis R wrote:And yet again: If Symkyn doesn't need much winter gear, why in Shan-Wei's name would it be an issue for Kaitswyrth?

lyonheart wrote:Hi Anwi,

< snip >

## How will Kaitswyrth know?

His men don't have winter clothing, he doesn't have any scouts worth mentioning, so the first warning he'll get is when the alliance artillery opens up, when it'll be far too late.

Symkyn has a regiment of scout snipers to keep him very well informed as to Kaitswyrth can do, besides any alerts from helpful seijins, indeed what are the odds of them suggesting an unobserved route to trap Kaitswyrth?

Rather high I think.

Given GS's firepower and superior mobility, trapping Kaitswyrth seems more likely than not to me, and given the better warmer weather at least ~750 miles south of BGV, I don't think Symkyn will need that much winter equipment.##



L

Hi JeffEngel,

Your suggestions have been the general theme of the previous threads on the subject, but if you think of something new please feel free to share it.

L

JeffEngel wrote:

lyonheart wrote:What the republic does with the TL's that choose to remain in the RoS is a very interesting question since there may be millions of them.

Since they can't be trusted again, they amount to second class citizens, a dangerous precedent; if the men labor to repair the war damage to avoid being imprisoned or executed for treason, who then supports their families?
L

It's a nasty civil war with religious and some class dimensions. We can pretty well count on settlements having ugly features, and that minimizing the ugliness has to be one of the government's - the society's - priorities.

Moral high ground is an important tool for Charis, and I think it will have to be for Siddarmark's government too. You can't try every Temple Loyalist for treason, though the nastiest guerrillas (on either side, really, but lots of luck enforcing that) may properly still be tried and executed for violating the customs and usages of war.

But with the typical Temple Loyalist, who just stuck with their Church and their neighbors when that Church condemned their country - who just tried to carry on their life and support armies moving through as need be - you have a citizen of Siddarmark once more when the armies loyal to the state dominate the area and the citizen minds his duties as one. Let him keep his church, his priest, his property and his position, so long as the priest isn't preaching positive sedition and the property and position aren't supporting rebellion any more. His work and taxes, like those of his fellows, will surely be going to that repair in any case. Treat him much worse, and you may not find yourself actually ending a civil war.

Hi PeterZ,

You think that the KotTL seriously considering reforming the inquisition is enough for the Siddarmark Reformists to pressure the Lord Protector for a truce?

Seriously?

By the time 898 YoG rolls around, the RSA division making machine will be rolling along quite well, the RSA alone may have more rifles than the MHoG ever did, and the alliance may already be well into the eastern KotTL, if not invading Zion and the temple via the Zion River etc.

Since the RSA will depend on the EoC for the M96's and the steel mortars, NTM their improved ammunition, i suspect the EoC leaders would have a critical influence in the republic's decision making process.

My reading of the Siddarmark Reformists is that they have gone far past seeking such a limited result from so much sacrifice and suffering.

They are no longer so tepid as you make them out to be.

Once they realise the alliance is on a roll, I suspect they will get even hotter.

The recent textev in LaMA regarding Chisholm is that they too are getting much hotter about pursuing the empire's goals in this war, goals that don't let the Go4 and the CoGA off the hook.

L

PeterZ wrote:Lyonheart,

If Duchairn et al can't deliver, the offensives commence. That practical threat will get the knights of the temple lands to seriously consider reforming the the Inquisition. That promise might get the Reformists in Siddermark to urge the Lord Protector to accept a truce. The Lord Protector seeing an opportunity to thoroughly reconstitute his army, might well accept the offer.

As I see it, a short reprieve benefits Siddermark most. The CoGA can improve their defenses, however those gains would be far outweighed by the increased size of the RSA fighting with bolt action rifles and ICA mortars. Assuming the Allies have reached as far as the Salkyr Cut (?), there might well be broad based belief that a satisfactory compromise might be reached. Especially if Clyntahn is viewed as the primary cause of the rather core CoGA doctrine. I can see Chisholm supporting the truce rather vigorously. They have escaped the consequences of being directly attacked by the CoGA.

lyonheart wrote:Regarding the terrain, RFC has told us he has yet to reveal lots of it, NTM roads, canals etc; so we'll have to wait to see but the cut is over a thousand miles from the Charayn Canal or 1500 from the Bay of Bess, so the chances of the terrain there being as mountainous as Sarkyn [or Sardahn according to the online map] is slight.

Since the Langhorne is gravity powered, the 400' high cut merely means a series of locks to climb [or run down from] the plateau behind it, which isn't too much of a surprise given its proximity to the mountains of light ie around 800 miles from Nimue's cave, or rather somewhat opposite the republic border and ~500 miles from Lake City.

Actually I've seen steeper cuts in West Virginia, though Idaho has a few whoppers as well.

This is Info on a 450 foot deep road cut.
http://www.mgs.md.gov/geology/geology_t ... etail.html
While this cut is in Western MD, not WV it is close.

Hi all,

Unless I am misreading some of you on the thread here, there seems a bit of confusion as to who is where.

First of all, Wyrsyhm is the AOG commander holding the cork in at the Sylvyn Gap. His opponent is BGV moving down toward Guernak from the north. We don't have any good way of estimating how far to the north BGV is at this point although, as Lyonheart points out, he is expected to arrive early spring. I remember some textev where BGV was hoping to get there before the frost went out of the ground. He is hoping as fruit of his winter march to surprise Wyrshym before the latter can retreat. It is this army who was short on winter clothing, being to the north.

The other major AOG army commanded by Kaitwryth is on the Daivyn at Ayvysthan (sp) in the central part of Cliff Peak province. He is facing Symkyn, the allied commander who took over after DE left to go down to Ft. Tairys. Symkyn and his army actually arrived sometime after the defeat of the AOS, reinforcements sent to replace DE's people having arrived earlier. I am not clear on exactly how far apart Sympkyn and Kaitswryth are apart, but my impression is that the allies forted up at the edge of the forest not more than a day or two from Ayvsthan. There has been no textev that I am aware of to suggest that Kaitswryth's army is short of winter clothing since he is about 700 miles to the south of Wyrshym and the Sylvyn Gap. His problem is that he is short on firearms. He lost the bulk of his firearms as a consequence of the route his army suffered when DE counterattacked after his failed assault on DE's position on the Glacierhart's border. IIRC, he has approximately 9,000 rifles left and is also short on artillery.

This is a thumbnail of my impression of the situation in the two theaters where the AOG armies are. I got the basics straight, but I will add a disclaimer here and note that there could be details that need correcting.

Don

Some comments below.

lyonheart wrote:

anwi wrote:The Langhorne canal is intact. Already in late February, the latest in March, Maigwair and Duchairn will start to move the MHoG. I assume that a good chunk of the MHoG will be between Lake City and Traynos by mid-April or so. (They'll use the canals while there's still ice on them.)

## I understand you think they'll push as quickly as possible despite experience suggesting they wait.
Given that this has been a hard winter, I'm not sure they can.
Because I don't think the lock gates or pumps etc work that well with big chunks of ice in the way.
There may be even prohibitions in the Holy Writ about not abusing the canals by trying to ship to early.
Granted, they might be set aside, but the result could be even more painful for the Go4 in actually delaying the MHoG because now they'll need repairs to the Langhorne.##

They're currently using the Langhorne canal for supplying Wyrshym, presumably by working with sleds. Since the locks won't work, that's reducing the capacity of the canal, but it's still a valid transport route. I was operating under the assumption that there'll be strong pressure on Maigwair and Duchairn to reinforce Wyrshym and Kaitswyrth at the earliest possible point in time. I understand that Duchairn assumes the Langhorne-Hildermoss route (as a water-way) to be operational by about mid-April (depending on the length of the winter this year). Now, if you have a stock of supplies at Lake City (probably true), you can use spare capacities of the still frozen canal to move up leading elements of the MHoG already in March. Might or might not happen.

lyonheart wrote:## Again they'll have to split the MHoG up to deal with the three theater disasters they'll have to deal with by then.
The Langhorne is 1800 miles long, so it will take over 45 days minimum just to get to Lake City since they're still on the Bedard canal over 450 miles from the Langhorne [ie 11+ more days] besides adding ~2.5 more days if they follow the West Wing Lake shoreline with dragons towing them, ie if they left now [and they obviously can't] they'd arrive at the beginning of May, far too late to help either Wyrshym or Kaitswyrth.

Now, there's an interesting point. Duchairn's plan was to have the MHoG encamped along the Langhorne canal. We know that camp No. 4 is at the Bedard canal, so quite some distance away. However, there should be between 80 to 160 camps in total, well distributed between the Border States. So, leading elements of the MHoG might already now be shivering near Mhartynberg. Those should be available no later then end of April. I'd assume that camp No. 4 is not the vanguard but rather the rearguard of the MHoG. My previous assumptions were probably a bit too early for the MHoG, but probably by less than a month.

lyonheart wrote:what's to stop the defending alliance armies from truly demolishing the canal locks with the new explosives this time so any further advance by the MHoG will have to go by dragon, and they don't have anywhere near enough dragons!

If that happens, we're at a standstill. The MHoG can't advance without a supply route via canal, IMHO. That would result in a standstill unless the ICA attacks. However, since they've just destroyed the locks, they can only enforce a withdrawal of the lead MHoG units. They could no longer press the attack, because the ICA and SRA are also dependend on canals for large armies.

lyonheart wrote:[On the Army of Justice stragglers reaching Kaitswyrth]
## This a tough or sensitive textev conflict problem.

Because the textev says they got there, but there hasn't been enough time according to the calendar, especially not 45 days.
Obviously 45 days doesn't fit the current narrative.
[SNIP]
I'm afraid a clarification from RFC seems in order, if the pertinent parties will alert him please, we'll be most grateful.

Well, it's only a problem if Kaitswyrth has to be gone by April. If he's still around at Aivahnstyn until May, there's no major issue.

lyonheart wrote:

anwi wrote:I just think that Kaitswyrth won't let himself trapped. He'll probably retreat in time. And ICA units are (currently) not positioned to prevent that.

## How will Kaitswyrth know?
His men don't have winter clothing, he doesn't have any scouts worth mentioning, so the first warning he'll get is when the alliance artillery opens up, when it'll be far too late.

Well, if Kaitswyrth hasn't established a wide security parameter around his emplacements and positions, he's fool. I assume he is fundamentally competent. Similarly, he should have secured his supply line with sufficient forces. Just strolling into his rear areas will be a problem even for ICA dragoons. But you are right that Kaitswyrth might be vulnerable to a wide-ranging entrapment. We'll read...

lyonheart wrote:##Pyrrhic victories aside, a regiment or two of dragoons and scout snipers could wreak havoc upon a MHoG sub army.

Yes, but even ICA dragoons won't operate beyond enemy lines if their supply line is more than 100 miles long. And they won't operate with mortars or artillery, because you can't move quickly over extended distances with these kinds of loads. I'm not buying into these scenarios. It seems to me they have something of a Charge of the Light Brigade quality...
But I'll grant you: If you could pull off something like this given the terrain, the supply situation and rear area security by the AoG, the rewards would be significant.

lyonheart wrote:Given the IDE can't afford another AoJ without subsidies they won't get, and Dohlar can't fight or block EHM, Hanth, and DE separately or together, I doubt Clyntahn will expect much from them whatever his propaganda mills may print.##

Oh, Clyntahn will expect a lot - because of loyal subjects, the crisis of the jihad, the mission of Langhorne, and his will. And he'll probably get another army out of Desnair. Only, it'll be inadequate for the role Clyntahn has assigned to it...

Here I thought there would be some discussion of the actual snippet, rather than wandering all over creation. Silly me.

I'd have to say that not hearing from one colonel is rather ominous, considering RFC's writing history.