Hi Anwi,
Thanks for the clarifications, I'll put my responses between ##'s this time ?
[quote="anwi"][quote="lyonheart"]** Its more a question of time, mid-July etc is 4 month's away, ** [/quote]
Here's probably our first divergence. The Langhorne canal is intact. Already in late February, the latest in March, Maigwair and Duchairn will [i]start[/i] to move the MHoG. I assume that a good chunk of the MHoG will be between Lake City and Traynos by mid-April or so. (They'll use the canals while there's still ice on them.)
## I understand you think they'll push as quickly as possible despite experience suggesting they wait.
Given that this has been a hard winter, I'm not sure they can.
Because I don't think the lock gates or pumps etc work that well with big chunks of ice in the way.
There may be even prohibitions in the Holy Writ about not abusing the canals by trying to ship to early.
Granted, they might be set aside, but the result could be even more painful for the Go4 in actually delaying the MHoG because now they'll need repairs to the Langhorne.##
[quote="lyonheart"]
** Sorry, but I don't think Magwair is that dumb or so egotistical {Clyntahn's another story], especially when the rest of their armies are effectively gone by the time part of the MHoG could advance up the Langhorne, so they all have to be replaced by splitting the MHoG into 3-4 sub-armies. [/quote]
I agree that moving the MHoG as one big unit would be ultimate folly. That won't happen. There will have to be several, say, "corps" moving separately, in separate waves so to say. But the way I see it, all these units will probably move along the Langhorne canal, the Tarikah and Hildermoss river (locks there repaired by the start of spring). At Lake Masyn they might start to branch to their respective areas of operation. That'll repeat the original deployment of the AoG in MTAT and LAMA.
I don't think that Maigwair chose that approach without reason and I'd assume he'll want to repeat it because it's the fastest way to move large units with their provisions.
## Again they'll have to split the MHoG up to deal with the three theater disasters they'll have to deal with by then.
The Langhorne is 1800 miles long, so it will take over 45 days minimum just to get to Lake City since they're still on the Bedard canal over 450 miles from the Langhorne [ie 11+ more days] besides adding ~2.5 more days if they follow the West Wing Lake shoreline with dragons towing them, ie if they left now [and they obviously can't] they'd arrive at the beginning of May, far too late to help either Wyrshym or Kaitswyrth.
The primary problem in following the previous plan is that the situation has dramatically changed, because now they face large very well armed armies able to contest their invasion almost every step of the way.
Even assuming they get far enough to split onto the Sair and Hildermoss rivers before the allied armies meet them, assuming the lock repair teams meet the schedule, which being a 'best case' is doubtful, according to Duchairn's private thoughts; what's to stop the defending alliance armies from truly demolishing the canal locks with the new explosives this time so any further advance by the MHoG will have to go by dragon, and they don't have anywhere near enough dragons!
While a dragon can carry 75% of its cargo 500 miles, that far beyond the undamaged canal head would require around 11,378 dragons over the 32 day round trip for the whole MHoG with no ammunition or other supplies; before considering any normal wastage losses not including what a hostile better armed army might do if it were feeling nasty.
I don't think Duchairn can come anywhere near to finding that many dragons, let alone getting them there in time to be useful this year, and next year will be way too late.##
[quote="lyonheart"]
We still don't have a confirmed date for the snippets or the conclusion in LaMA, but from past monthly averages of chapters per month, it could well be the middle of March, so the almost 8,000 stragglers would now have had the time [15-16 days at ~60m/day] to make it to Aivahstyn.
I expect Kaitswyrth to be toast by the end of March or April, nor do I expect him to retreat safely up the North Daivyn River when all his supplies are coming up the Fairmyn.**
[/quote]
Several comments: 60m a day, that'd be two marathons a day for foot soldiers "straggling" back to safety. I'd say they would be lucky if they make 15m/day on average, as they are on foot and can't follow the canals/high roads due to ICA and SRA units. So, for the about 700 miles I'd assume something like 45 days. And that'll bring us squarely into at least early spring before a defeat of Kaitswyrth would be likely.
As to Kaitswyrth's supply route, I'd understood the results of the canal raid so that the supply route via Dairnyth was commandeered by Durchairn for Kaitswyrth and diverted from supplying Ahlverez/Harless. So, his original and primary supply route would go back to the north. That route should be open again, so he'll likely retreat that way if pressed. But he may also use the Charayn canal back to Dairnyth. In that case (but only then), cutting him off at the Fairmyn should be attempted.
## This a tough or sensitive textev conflict problem.
Because the textev says they got there, but there hasn't been enough time according to the calendar, especially not 45 days.
Obviously 45 days doesn't fit the current narrative.
First, we're talking almost 8,000 cavalry from Chevair, not infantry, although over long distances infantry may well march faster even if its half the pace RFC has set for infantry on Safehold, the US Army experience even before WW2 was that and infantry unit could out march cavalry if the march was longer than 4 days.
RFC has previously stated that cavalry could move 60 miles or more per day on a high road, being so superior to comparable 18th-19th century earth roads where 40 miles was quite good for cavalry, and I tried to extrapolate that as an average to match the apparent textev time.
We have yet to have explained how this miracle of reaching Aivahstyn so quickly was accomplished, as I've previously pointed out it would requite the local TL's to provide some 120 tons of fodder every day along the 'stragglers' way to save the time needed to forage their horses.
I'm afraid a clarification from RFC seems in order, if the pertinent parties will alert him please, we'll be most grateful.
Regarding Kaitswyrth's possible retreat routes, I don't think the northern will be ready before late April or early May, so it won't have any supplies for him to use in his retreat, if he does in the first place, because I think his orders, especially via his intendant from Clyntahn, is to hold at all costs until relieved etc, the same BGV expects for Wyrshym, which is why he's hoping for another Stalingrad to break the AoG/Army of Sylman.
So EHM going to Dairnyth ASAP makes a lot more sense, because even if the northern locks are repaired 'on time' [though BGV certainly doesn't expect the winter weather to let up soon] the route to Aivahstyn from Lake City is another 1800+ miles, ie around another 45 days before the first barges can reach Kaitswyrth, so if he went that way he might be very hungry or worse for 3-4 5days even in a best case scenario.##
[quote="lyonheart"]
**Why do you want Kaitswyrth to get away?
[/quote]
I just think that Kaitswyrth won't let himself trapped. He'll probably retreat in time. And ICA units are (currently) not positioned to prevent that.
## How will Kaitswyrth know?
His men don't have winter clothing, he doesn't have any scouts worth mentioning, so the first warning he'll get is when the alliance artillery opens up, when it'll be far too late.
Symkyn has a regiment of scout snipers to keep him very well informed as to Kaitswyrth can do, besides any alerts from helpful seijins, indeed what are the odds of them suggesting an unobserved route to trap Kaitswyrth?
Rather high I think.
Given GS's firepower and superior mobility, trapping Kaitswyrth seems more likely than not to me, and given the better warmer weather at least ~750 miles south of BGV, I don't think Symkyn will need that much winter equipment.##
[quote="lyonheart"]
** Did you mean Lake Isyk or Lake Maysn?
There are flank attacks and there are flank attacks, Symkyn cutting the Langhorne 500-1000 miles behind the MHoG is is one possibility, a couple of dragoon brigades etc harassing a sub army for 200 miles along its march etc is another.
[/quote]
Lake Isyk. But it might well be Lake Masyn. As to those flanking attacks. Overland supply route over more than 500 miles through un-pacified territory. Sorry, I don't buy it. There's no reason for the ICA to take that risk. Remember, they can't affort to pull a Pyrrhos, Maigwair can...
##Pyrrhic victories aside, a regiment or two of dragoons and scout snipers could wreak havoc upon a MHoG sub army.
12 mortars firing 10 rounds in a minute is 120 rounds, or an area of almost 105,000 square yards avoiding overlap for maximum casualties not fatalities, or 2 miles of cavalry on a 30 yard wide high road [including the shoulders] getting reamed, especially if those are the nearest mile to the real road kill zone mined at the edges for 2 or 3 miles etc.
Then 'rinse and repeat' as other posters have often stated, a few hours later several miles away.##
[quote="lyonheart"]I don't think Clyntahn will accept or agree that the South March Lands are effectively a neutralized wasteland; that Shiloh with all those desperate TL's are beyond even Duchairn's logistical miracles[granted sending another army there this year would probably destroy it even quicker than Harless's Army of Shiloh.
[/quote]
But even Clyntahn will realize he can't do much about it; TLs in Shiloh, South March, even Cliff Peak should now be fleeing into CoGA controlled lands. The Siddarmarkians will surely clean house in their rear areas. When Harless lost at Ft. Tairys, the TL cause east of the Branath mountains was lost. Moreover, as I read Clyntahn, he'll likely assign the duty of "liberating" South March (for starters) to his loyal subjects in Desnair and Dohlar. So he's bound to request from Emperor and King another "Army of Justice". We'll see what he gets...[/quote]
## Yup.
Granted that any remaining TL's should have vacated Shiloh when DE took Fort Tairys, the Go4 have no idea of their numbers in the first place, NTM they have over a thousand miles to go just to get to the Seridahn River, which given the few horses, dragons or oxen etc that survived the last two winter means they're probably carrying whatever food they can; I don't think many will make it even half that far even without any harassment from RoS 'patriots'.
What the republic does with the TL's that choose to remain in the RoS is a very interesting question since there may be millions of them.
Since they can't be trusted again, they amount to second class citizens, a dangerous precedent; if the men labor to repair the war damage to avoid being imprisoned or executed for treason, who then supports their families?
Given the IDE can't afford another AoJ without subsidies they won't get, and Dohlar can't fight or block EHM, Hanth, and DE separately or together, I doubt Clyntahn will expect much from them whatever his propaganda mills may print.##
L
) blackmail, the Inquisition and the Temple guards. In the Temple itself, the Inquisition and the Temple guards probably constitute the dominant physical forces. However, as you get further from the Temple, the Inquisition advisors get thinner on the ground, and are vastly outnumbered by the soldiers around them. If sections of the army start to really come apart, would it be conceivable that some of the more extreme Inquisitors might come to suffer "accidents," rather like that suffered by poor old Lieutenant Wyllyms at the hands of the Schuelerite priest Dahnyvyn Schahl?
that this MHOG Army might not even reach Dairnyth.