HFQ Official Snippet #20

Hooked wrote:I am wondering about training of Siddarmark soldiers. It is happening and already some have fought with Eastshore, while others are at the front on the Daivyn River and still more are getting rid of pockets of Temple Loyalists in Midhold etc.
I think that more will be ready and armed by next summer to aid in heading off invaders?

Hi Hooked,

Oh yeah, by spring Siddarmark will field over 400,000 men, all armed at bare minimim with muzzle loaders. Combined with the 300,000 that EOC has put into the field, that should mean over 700,000 men. Those numbers will contine to grow since we have not seen significant contributions yet from either Zebediah or Corisande.

Up to this point, the bottleneck has not been manpower, but arms due to industrial base not able to produce enough to keep up with recruiting. That is being solved and Siddarmark's armies will continue to expand in size. As you have noted, they are already starting to make a difference.

As far as invasions go, I anticipate that by the end of the summer, the shoe will be on the other foot.

Don

Hi Anwi,

I'll comment below between **, okay?


[quote="anwi"]Hi Lyonheart, some comments further below.
However, on the issue of what to do with Dohlar (you want to invade, I'll leave it to the navy) and where the Harchongians will be (I see them all in Tarikah, for a start, you probably assume some go to Dohlar), we're simply on different sides of the argument. We'll have to wait and read...


** Its more a question of time, mid-July etc is 4 month's away, perhaps too long compared to the immediate opportunities that might be lost by then, rather than preferring the army over the navy.**


[quote="lyonheart"]
Remembering that Kaitswyrth had only around 9,000 rifles at last report while Symkyn has some 75,000 well armed men, Kaitswyrth and what's left of his army aren't long for this world, nor do I expect Wyrshym to last until May either. [/quote]

First, I'd expect some resupply and reinforcements for Kaitswyrth. But, basically, you're right. Both can't withstand a concentrated assault of their respective opponents. While I fully expect them to be driven back to the Hildermoss, I don't expect both Kaitswyrth and Wyrshym to be encircled and captured. But that's open to debate.

**Granted RFC won't be using a cookie cutter to describe their demises, but I don't see Kaitswyrth surviving, while Wyrshym might die nobly in battle, as about the main difference.**


[quote="lyonheart"]
Given all the bad news about to happen to their armies the Go4 will have to split up their last army, making it far easier to defeat in detail.
[/quote]
That strategic decision of Maigwair (probably) is still unknown. I assume that he wants to keep all the Harchongians well under his thumb, on a workable supply line and in "one place". The rationale would be that no army of men could hold its ground against a million soldiers attacking simultaneously. Now, Maigwair'll get an object lesson in the false premise in the previous statement, but I figure that trying to swamp the ICA units is about the best strategy he will come up with. So, I see the MHoG in Tarikah Province at the start of the campaign season. And there's not a lot the Alliance could do against that, given the positions of their units. Nor should they...

** Sorry, but I don't think Magwair is that dumb or so egotistical {Clyntahn's another story], especially when the rest of their armies are effectively gone by the time part of the MHoG could advance up the Langhorne, so they all have to be replaced by splitting the MHoG into 3-4 sub-armies.

Never in human history has such a huge force been so concentrated in so little area, regardless of what some old histories claim, be they were incapable of being supplied.

Safehold has dragons, but I really don't see RFC having the MHoG all in one place, and defeated just once, etc.

1.6 million men trying to all march or barge together is just too huge and inflexible a force to be really practicable, especially for Safehold, even with dragon wagons.

To travel just 1 day or 40 miles from the canal requires 533 dragons for the 2 way round trip, and the same again for each additional day away from the canal.

I don't think they have that many dragons.

Even if they marched with a front 80 miles wide, assuming the terrain permitted such an improbability as they advancing on line, they could still be flanked well to the rear and their supplies cut off.

So they have to detail guards for their flanks, how many per mile so they can't be overwhelmed by the alliance?

Such a questions will soon loom large in the remaining CoGA armies.**

[quote="lyonheart"]
I think your point was that they weren't pursued like they could or should have been.

We don't know how many started out to follow Hennet, so these could be the few survivors.
[/quote]
Yes. I got the impression that the entrapment at Kharmych was largely successful, and relatively few of the Desnairian units escaped. But we could be wrong there, in which case there should be ICA troops pursuing those units north. Still, the textev says that these stragglers reached the Army of Glacierheart, and that's rather unlikely if the Army of Glacierheart is defeated as early as your strategic movements assume.


** I don't know where I gave that impression, since I haven't given that detailed a calendar for when I think things will happen, but defeating Kaitswyrth certainly seems possible sometime this spring if not by early summer.

We still don't have a confirmed date for the snippets or the conclusion in LaMA, but from past monthly averages of chapters per month, it could well be the middle of March, so the almost 8,000 stragglers would now have had the time [15-16 days at ~60m/day] to make it to Aivahstyn.

I expect Kaitswyrth to be toast by the end of March or April, nor do I expect him to retreat safely up the North Daivyn River when all his supplies are coming up the Fairmyn.**

[quote="lyonheart"]
If EHM takes Dairnyth, then Kaitswyrth and any MHoGatA sub army heading west from the Langhorne Canal will soon starve,
[/quote]
Why bother. ICA land troops can't realistically be there before the King Haraahld VII - and before the action in the north resumes in late spring. Give the navy some credit. Moreover, if you dislodge Kaitswyrth from Aivahnstyn and force him back north, his supply line via Dairnyth is irrelevant anyways.


**Why do you want Kaitswyrth to get away?

Contrary to your opinion above, the KH VII's won't arrive until mid July at the earliest, while EHM could reach Dairnyth by early April, with DE a 5day or two behind, or 3 month's ahead of the KH VII's; while the campaigns in the northern climes never started before May, ie before BGV's little surprise.

Furthermore, General Symkyn with 75,000 well armed men and far more firepower won't let Kaitswyrth retreat anywhere, assuming Clyntahn and his rabid intendant Sedryk Zavyr were to agree in any way to let him retreat, the same going for Wyrshym.**


[quote="lyonheart"]
Since you're worried about the MHoGatA getting to the Hildermoss or points east, suppose the ironclads make an appearance again but this time only to trigger the locks being blown, again draining the canals and leaving the MHoGatA's supply barges stuck; high and dry, unable to be supplied for weeks so they too are facing starvation too soon and have to retreat regardless of what Clyntahn insists is their duty.
[/quote]
First, I have to agree with others that already pointed out that flanking attacks on the MHoG will be difficult at best, especially if you're planning to do those over more than 500 miles and over land. Whatever.
I'm not worried about the MHoG reaching Hildermoss Province, it's simply my assumption about their likely deployment and progress before they can realistically make contact with leading ICA and SRA units. And your remark on an attack on their supply route, e.g. by river class monitors, is one of my favourite options for tackling the MHoG. Therefore, the deployment of ICA troops should be accordingly: You drive Kaitswyrth and Wyrshym back to the Hildermoss, prepare strong defensive positions with the troops you have and then let the MHoG come and stop them dead in their tracks. After that, cut off the supply route and you make a good catch at the shores of Lake Isyn.
But for that approach to work, you better be sure that the MHoG really won't swamp your lines. The way RFC has written about the battle-readiness of the MHoG, they are seen as a serious threat by Merlin and Cayleb. (We both agree that the threat actually is far less...) They will likely want to have the elite units under DE and EHM at their disposal for the campaign.[/quote]


** Did you mean Lake Isyk or Lake Maysn?

There are flank attacks and there are flank attacks, Symkyn cutting the Langhorne 500-1000 miles behind the MHoG is is one possibility, a couple of dragoon brigades etc harassing a sub army for 200 miles along its march etc is another.

I don't see the alliance sending all its armies up north against your very hypothetical concentrated MHoG, abandoning the rest of the republic's frontier etc, until they had iron confirmation for even the Siddarmarkians, even if the Charisians were willing to do such a stupid thing.

If anything their armies would be inclined to make as much trouble elsewhere to compel the MHoG being split up to deal with all of them.

I don't think Clyntahn will accept or agree that the South March Lands are effectively a neutralized wasteland; that Shiloh with all those desperate TL's are beyond even Duchairn's logistical miracles[granted sending another army there this year would probably destroy it even quicker than Harless's Army of Shiloh.

That is, if the alliance has armies there, that's where part of the MHoG should be sent, besides any political etc concerns about shoring up [threatening] Dohlar; so he'll want at least one army for the south possibly two, another to replace Kaitswyrth, and a third or fourth to replace Wyrshym.

Regarding your Hildermoss scenario, it could happen [I've also wondered where the MHoG's high water mark might be], albeit with a sub army against just BGV [who's been considerably reinforced by new RSA divisions etc, so it's only 3 or 4-1 odds], and more ironclads with a another corps coming up from Salyk to cut the river connection route there while Symkyn cuts it well west of Lake city, with possibly a division or corps taking that city to grab all its supplies as well.

The MHoG might well be 5-6 times as dangerous to the enemy as it was before the AoG instructors and advisers etc arrived [according to the Harchong noncom in LaMA, February 897 YoG, chapter 1], but 5-6 times pitiful is still pretty awful.

Hopefully we'll have a clarifying snippet in a few more days.

L

Hi LouisR,

Thanks for the thoughtful post.

I'll comment below between the **.

Louis R wrote:A couple of things:

I still think you're underestimating the degree to which psychology can trump strategy. The Might Host etc. is Clyntahn's fair-haired child. Unlike those closet Reformists from Dohlar and Desnair [of course they are - they keep on quitting instead of trusting God to hand them the victory!], all they need to do is line up shoulder to shoulder to trample Siddarmark into the mud. What can possibly withstand their inexorable progress. Gunpowder? Piffle! The heretics will shoot themselves dry and be smashed by the weight of the remainder. Why would he _allow_ them to be split up. He might permit some discussion of whether it would make better sense to send them around the north or the south, and even let himself be persuaded to do both [which actually does have a strategic argument in its favour] but it won't be for any merely practical reasons.


**I have to disagree with your whole view of the Go4 dynamics, Clyntahn isn't all powerful; he knows his failures have encouraged Magwair and Duchairn, but he can't stop their continued cooperation.

The failure of the Army of Shiloh will continue that process.

Clyntahn's irrationality may be increasing, but he still doesn't have and hasn't tried to control the MHoG from the textev.

Any such attempt will come latter after they get in theater, which will be at least a couple month's at best, since he won't be able to fault Magwair and Duchairn until then.

Breaking the pattern of Magwair and Duchairn's orders requires some overriding reason, which Magwair and Duchairn being rational won't provide him the excuse for attempting this putsch.**


Sure, Maigwair and especially Duchairn know better, but do you think they'll be able to pry operational control of _this_ force out of Clyntahn's hands? Maigwair can't even be sure who his direct subordinates are going to obey. For that matter, is Maigwair himself proof against the vision of Juggernaut bearing down on the opposition on 4 million legs?


** Yes, Magwair is at least that smart.

Remember he created the AoG, which given all its complexity and even faults still impresses Duchairn and even BGV somewhat, according to their textev thoughts.

Magwair has been exercising operational control while they've been traveling over 2000 miles, so I don't see Clyntahn being stupid enough to try to seize control anytime soon, and the message lag means it'll be too late for him to change the outcome of any battle, no matter what kind of military genius he thinks he may be or have become by then.**


Something you are probably _over_estimating is the significance of the South to either side for a considerable period - likely, for the remainder of the war. You also seem to be forgetting what the object of the exercise has to be for the Allies: they need to _destroy_ the AoG, not allow it to withdraw, lick its wounds further and come back, with or without the Mighty etc. Sure, taking Dairnyth cuts off Kaitwyrth's supply line and puts the alliance back on the Bay of Bess, but what does the AoGht do then? Probably, hightails it back to Lake City, with water transport available most, maybe all, the way to the Sair. Even if Kaitswyrth hasn't learned anything, you can be sure his better divisional commanders have. Let Maigwair get them back in reach and had them over to our friend Bishop Barhnabai, and the AoSyl won't be going anyplace it doesn't want to. The immediate need is to cut Kaitwyrth off in Aivahnstyn, or better pull him into a deployment to the south and east, pin him down and destroy him. Which means that the Army of Cliff Peak has to hook up behind him _now_, not take a holiday on the sea shore. It would make a lot of sense for Eastshare to head to Dairnyth first, then move back up the Fairmyn leaving Hanth to keep the Dohlarans trimmed back, but High Mount should be heading straight to the Daivyn behind Aivahnstyn, hopefully with something going on to distract Kaitswyrth and keep him from noticing or at least thinking that he should maybe ignore the urging he's getting to hold fast.

** How is it you think I don't expect the AoG to be destroyed in detail very soon?

That is, by mid April at the latest.

Given General Symkyn's [GS] superior troops and firepower, I don't think Kaitswyrth will get away.

For some reason you and Anwi seem to keep forgetting him and his 75,000 man army.

Sending EHM up to Aivahstyn would mean Kaitswyrth is occupying the attention of 2 alliance armies that have around twice his effective numbers, I don't see the alliance, especially the inner circle being that stupid.

Given how demented you think Clyntahn is, having him finally grant Kaitswyrth permission to retreat counters your whole argument.

The connecting canal locks won't be fixed until April, Kaitswyrth may not exist by the time he might try to use them if he did get permission.

EHM isn't headed to Dairnyth for a holiday, but to hold and defend the alliance flank, NTM cut the temple's communications with Dohlar, Silkiah and the whole continent of Howard, among other strategically important things; I thought you had seen and argued for that before.

Now I've previously argued that EHM should head for the Daivyn River because I've expected that the MHoG center sub-army would head directly across from the Bedard canal east end to the Charayn Canal to replace Kaitswyrth ASAP in only about 20+ days if they had enough dragons etc.

I've then described how a combination of ironclads and GS on the north shore and EHM on the south might destroy AGC rather easily.**


The AoSyl needs the same treatment, but unfortunately I'm not very sanguine about Wyrshym letting it happen. Ideally, the AoM will slip in behind him while his attention is held by an attack on his forward units out of the Gap. If that happens, his army is gone, and hopefully all its senior commanders killed of captured, but it depends on him not noticing a whole army marching down out of the Ohlahrn Gap until too late. Somehow, I can't see that happening. I'm not at all sure that even Kaitswyrth can be nailed down, although his personality suggests that there's at least a good chance of doing it.


** I'm betting BGV will achieve strategic surprise, and Wyrshym's remaining army down at the lake will be too deep to escape [200-250 miles south of Guarnak in winter] and being caught between both alliance forces will be effectively crushed.

I don't see Clyntahn suddenly authorizing either to retreat, however sensible that might be.

Given all the concern about Ahlverez being condemned from the pulpit for running away, I don't see the same idiot permitting the AoG armies to get away with doing the same, when he hasn't before.

Before the MHoG can begin to move, the Go4 are going to find themselves with a couple fewer armies, allies and a continent than they thought they had..

Expecting them to keep the MHoG wholly intact after that disaster is absurd.

I look forward to your future posts**


*quote="lyonheart"*Hi Anwi,

Given the alliance has 2-3 month's before the MHoGatA gets to the front, I think the alliance has plenty of time to make things much worse for the Go4, forcing them to split it into at least 4 sub armies as I've suggested so many times before.

Regarding whether they're being ready for war, I guess it depends on your definition of trained troops [a few month's training during the winter really won't prepare them for what they're about to experience, and I suspect RFC is going to highlight many of their inadequacies as they get closer to the front lines.

< snip >
Remembering that Kaitswyrth had only around 9,000 rifles at last report while Symkyn has some 75,000 well armed men, Kaitswyrth and what's left of his army aren't long for this world, nor do I expect Wyrshym to last until May either.

Given all the bad news about to happen to their armies the Go4 will have to split up their last army, making it far easier to defeat in detail.

So no, they don't need to concentrate the ICA all up north.

I've previously explained in probably too much detail how one or two ICA/alliance armies working together could defeat the respective MHoGatA sub armies rather easily, especially given the strategic and tactical mastery the ICA has already demonstrated.

I don't see why Symkyn couldn't provide the viewpoint character needed to eliminate Kaitswyrth, since that's how he was first used in MTaT.

< snip >

Given EHM is west and north of DE, having him go further south seems far less efficient than I'd expect from DE, crossing 2 supply lines etc.

Given DE's preference for celerity from the first time we read his interaction with Merlin, I don't think he's moving very slowly now, especially when he has the enemy on the run.

Granted he has to sort out the POW's, and save as many of the ~60-67,000 captured cavalry mounts (how many have to be put down etc) and possibly send them south to those patriotic provinces to restore, since they're rather rare and valuable in the republic right now, but that's probably another thread.

If EHM takes Dairnyth, then Kaitswyrth and any MHoGatA sub army heading west from the Langhorne Canal will soon starve, providing rather more depth for the republic, and enabling Symkyn to flank any sub army headed east via the repaired canals, and cut its supply line behind it.

< snip >

L

anwi wrote:
I agree that Eastshare and High Mount have a strategic decision to take: Reinforce Hanth at the Seridahn or revert back to the northern theatre. For me, the Dohlarans are sidelined already; keeping them contained for now and keep South March an effective "wasteland" with no good military objectives should do the trick.
Simultaneously, the "mighty host" will arrive in two or three months at the borders of Hildermoss Province. You might want to have all the elite troops there where you need them. Thus, it's very likely that - after mopping up around Kharmych - a larger part of both Eastshare's and High Mount's units returns north. I guess it'll be Eastshare to go back to his original theatre via the Branath canal - although that guess is based on RFC's need to have DE there as a viewpoint character to tell the spring campaign against Kaitswyrth.
In that scenario, EHM might stay back to capture Ahlverez.
There's only one caveat here: We know that 8000 stragglers reached Kaitswyrth. That adds up only if there is no hot pursuit of Charisian troops (dragoons in particular) on the way north (or if more Desnairians escape the trap than I assume and they were harried north...). So, if I'm correct, DE took his time. But I'm not seeing him invading Dohlar or heading to Dairnyth at all.

*quote*

Hi don,

I concur completely.

How's that for brevity?

L

n7axw wrote:Hi Louis R,

I see Wyrshym being trapped between BGV who takes Guernak (sp) and the units holding the cork in the Sylvan Gap. The good Baron might not take him completely by surprise, but the whole point of his winter march was to accomplish exactly that.

As for Kaitwryth, his vulnerability is that he has so few firearms at this point in time. He is going to have to retreat or he is going to be flanked and besieged with his supplies cut off. He might be able to retreat, but if well armed EOC dragoons catch him out in the open, at this point he has no viable counter given his shortage of rifles.

We are probably going to disagree on this, but I don't think either AOG army will get away intact.

Don

lyonheart wrote:** Its more a question of time, mid-July etc is 4 month's away, **

Here's probably our first divergence. The Langhorne canal is intact. Already in late February, the latest in March, Maigwair and Duchairn will start to move the MHoG. I assume that a good chunk of the MHoG will be between Lake City and Traynos by mid-April or so. (They'll use the canals while there's still ice on them.)

lyonheart wrote:** Sorry, but I don't think Magwair is that dumb or so egotistical {Clyntahn's another story], especially when the rest of their armies are effectively gone by the time part of the MHoG could advance up the Langhorne, so they all have to be replaced by splitting the MHoG into 3-4 sub-armies.

I agree that moving the MHoG as one big unit would be ultimate folly. That won't happen. There will have to be several, say, "corps" moving separately, in separate waves so to say. But the way I see it, all these units will probably move along the Langhorne canal, the Tarikah and Hildermoss river (locks there repaired by the start of spring). At Lake Masyn they might start to branch to their respective areas of operation. That'll repeat the original deployment of the AoG in MTAT and LAMA.
I don't think that Maigwair chose that approach without reason and I'd assume he'll want to repeat it because it's the fastest way to move large units with their provisions.

lyonheart wrote:We still don't have a confirmed date for the snippets or the conclusion in LaMA, but from past monthly averages of chapters per month, it could well be the middle of March, so the almost 8,000 stragglers would now have had the time [15-16 days at ~60m/day] to make it to Aivahstyn.

I expect Kaitswyrth to be toast by the end of March or April, nor do I expect him to retreat safely up the North Daivyn River when all his supplies are coming up the Fairmyn.**

Several comments: 60m a day, that'd be two marathons a day for foot soldiers "straggling" back to safety. I'd say they would be lucky if they make 15m/day on average, as they are on foot and can't follow the canals/high roads due to ICA and SRA units. So, for the about 700 miles I'd assume something like 45 days. And that'll bring us squarely into at least early spring before a defeat of Kaitswyrth would be likely.
As to Kaitswyrth's supply route, I'd understood the results of the canal raid so that the supply route via Dairnyth was commandeered by Durchairn for Kaitswyrth and diverted from supplying Ahlverez/Harless. So, his original and primary supply route would go back to the north. That route should be open again, so he'll likely retreat that way if pressed. But he may also use the Charayn canal back to Dairnyth. In that case (but only then), cutting him off at the Fairmyn should be attempted.

lyonheart wrote:**Why do you want Kaitswyrth to get away?

I just think that Kaitswyrth won't let himself trapped. He'll probably retreat in time. And ICA units are (currently) not positioned to prevent that.

lyonheart wrote:** Did you mean Lake Isyk or Lake Maysn?

There are flank attacks and there are flank attacks, Symkyn cutting the Langhorne 500-1000 miles behind the MHoG is is one possibility, a couple of dragoon brigades etc harassing a sub army for 200 miles along its march etc is another.

Lake Isyk. But it might well be Lake Masyn. As to those flanking attacks. Overland supply route over more than 500 miles through un-pacified territory. Sorry, I don't buy it. There's no reason for the ICA to take that risk. Remember, they can't affort to pull a Pyrrhos, Maigwair can...

lyonheart wrote:I don't think Clyntahn will accept or agree that the South March Lands are effectively a neutralized wasteland; that Shiloh with all those desperate TL's are beyond even Duchairn's logistical miracles[granted sending another army there this year would probably destroy it even quicker than Harless's Army of Shiloh.

But even Clyntahn will realize he can't do much about it; TLs in Shiloh, South March, even Cliff Peak should now be fleeing into CoGA controlled lands. The Siddarmarkians will surely clean house in their rear areas. When Harless lost at Ft. Tairys, the TL cause east of the Branath mountains was lost. Moreover, as I read Clyntahn, he'll likely assign the duty of "liberating" South March (for starters) to his loyal subjects in Desnair and Dohlar. So he's bound to request from Emperor and King another "Army of Justice". We'll see what he gets...

lyonheart wrote:Hi EdThomas,

I'd say it depends on whether the ambushing force plans to maintain contact with its victim for a long or short time [ie raid], the latter only if supplies are short, the former if proper preparations have been made, which can be quite a surprise in itself.
BIG SNIP

My bad! I was following the herd and ignoring the southern route you brought up ( I think I'm the only one who mentioned it ).

I like your thinking here. It pretty much eliminates the concerns I voiced because I was thinking only of attacks along the Langhorne. The supply problem is much more manageable in this area, possibly even using a cache system or pre-arranged link ups with re-supply convoys. The convoy option also takes care of my biggest concern about the seriously wounded.
You've mentioned scout schooners somewhere else in this thread (I think!). If they're available, the harassment/interdiction effort benefits hugely. The schooners can provide intelligence, re-supply drops and medical evacuation where necessary. The captains of these beauties might have to be advised to not get close enough inshore to join in the shooting though.
Artillery, rifle, and mine attacks will definitely slow the columns down. The impact on morale will be devastating, especially on units not armed with rifles. It should become very obvious after one or two attacks that they can do nothing to harm the heretics or even to defend themselves other than to lay on the ground or get behind something solid. We might even see some of this type unit refusing to move or even just dissolving into the countryside. The latter action could cause some real problems for the citizens along the coast.
I may be waxing euphoric but it is not inconceivable, to me at least, that this MHOG Army might not even reach Dairnyth.

Which brings us back to the key plot driver. Just how insightful or stupid is Magwair and how good a schemer is Duchairn?

I believe Magwair and his R&D crew can project capabilities based on what they know Charis is capable of now. That shipment of bolt action rifles and brass rounds should give Magwair the cold sweats. How many production man hours do those rounds represent? If Charis can produce enough of those rounds, the ICA armed with those bolt action rifles will cut through any number of the MHoG like a hot knife through butter. Once the RSA is full reconstituted and similarly armed, Zion is lost. Back of the napkin math will suggest the jihad a year at most to stop the Allies.

If Magwair shares this insight with Duchairn, can Duchairn scheme Clyntahn out of power? If so, the CoGA sues for peace. They offer the CoC a negotiated truce. Perhaps they reform the separation of powers embodied in the original CoGA structure to defang the inquisition. They offer something the Allies cannot refuse.

Because if they don't do that, the CoGA is toast.

EdThomas wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi EdThomas,

I'd say it depends on whether the ambushing force plans to maintain contact with its victim for a long or short time [ie raid], the latter only if supplies are short, the former if proper preparations have been made, which can be quite a surprise in itself.
BIG SNIP

My bad! I was following the herd and ignoring the southern route you brought up ( I think I'm the only one who mentioned it ).

I like your thinking here. It pretty much eliminates the concerns I voiced because I was thinking only of attacks along the Langhorne. The supply problem is much more manageable in this area, possibly even using a cache system or pre-arranged link ups with re-supply convoys. The convoy option also takes care of my biggest concern about the seriously wounded.
You've mentioned scout schooners somewhere else in this thread (I think!). If they're available, the harassment/interdiction effort benefits hugely. The schooners can provide intelligence, re-supply drops and medical evacuation where necessary. The captains of these beauties might have to be advised to not get close enough inshore to join in the shooting though.
Artillery, rifle, and mine attacks will definitely slow the columns down. The impact on morale will be devastating, especially on units not armed with rifles. It should become very obvious after one or two attacks that they can do nothing to harm the heretics or even to defend themselves other than to lay on the ground or get behind something solid. We might even see some of this type unit refusing to move or even just dissolving into the countryside. The latter action could cause some real problems for the citizens along the coast.
I may be waxing euphoric but it is not inconceivable, to me at least, that this MHOG Army might not even reach Dairnyth.

anwi wrote:But even Clyntahn will realize he can't do much about it; TLs in Shiloh, South March, even Cliff Peak should now be fleeing into CoGA controlled lands. The Siddarmarkians will surely clean house in their rear areas. When Harless lost at Ft. Tairys, the TL cause east of the Branath mountains was lost. Moreover, as I read Clyntahn, he'll likely assign the duty of "liberating" South March (for starters) to his loyal subjects in Desnair and Dohlar. So he's bound to request from Emperor and King another "Army of Justice". We'll see what he gets...

As far as Clyntahn getting another "Army of Justice" out of either Dohlar or Desnair, the old saying about snowballs in hell comes to mind....

As for Kaitswryth, all Symkyms needs to do is circle around Aivysthan with his dragoons and Kaitswryth is trapped. He doesn't have either the rifles or the artillery to break through. Or if those dragoons catch him away from his fortifications, they can hold him in play long enough for the rest of Symkyns army to finish the business.

Don

Hi JeffEngel,

I'll post my comments between the stars ** after yours, okay?

JeffEngel wrote:My apologies if I am mis-attributing quotes by now - they've grown far too complicated and nested for me to keep straight.

lyonheart wrote:Given that the AoG already passed through the same route last year, the TL's are the only ones left and are thus protected by the CoGA if not the AoG directly, so any mistreatment will be punished by church if not the laws of war etc, so given how devout the Harchong serfs are supposed to be, it's not going to be that big of a problem in the first place, assuming they get past Five Forks, which I doubt.

So lighten up, man!

It will be remarkably amusing if the Mighty Host of God never reaches enemy areas before being turned back. Also, the getting back may be made a little easier if
(1) they are well-supplied until the supply system vanishes behind them,
(2) foraging remains available in the areas they have gone through on the way back, because they were supplied that far,
and (3) (the one you can count on) they are hardy serfs, used both to privation anyway and eking out the remainder of their diet from the wild and marginal food-stuffs.

**It will indeed be amusing if the MHoG follows in the footsteps of the AoJ/Shiloh and never gets to the inquisition's first base as it were.

Your further points [1-3] are well taken, and if the MHoG stay well organised on the march back they might make it.

Unfortunately the sheer distance, 4000+ miles by then, is more of an obstacle than the inability of the locals or the CoGA to stop them directly, but there's the winter they'd have to weather and overcome.

A 100-200 day march from late summer or fall means they have to stop someplace and camp through the winter, which means accumulating the supplies needed for ~120-150 days which at 7200 tons per day for the whole MHoGatA, or 864-1080,000 tons of food and fodder assembled at their camps.

I don't think they can do that on their own.

But maybe they could.

Given how meager their remaining military capabilities will be by then, NTM concentrated to protect Zion and the temple, the Go4's primary tactic for stopping them would be by denying them those winter supplies anywhere in front of them, probably even if destroying them is the only way, regardless of the effect upon the local population's or their reaction to destroying their food.

It's possible the 'good' or reborn MHoG {RMHOG?] might negotiate or bargain with the various BS populations to provide those supplies in return for not plundering them, the alliance making up much of the balance if it can, but again that's explicit alliance support, that some may feel the alliance won't want to be seen to be doing, at least officially, if the RMHoG starts plundering and raping on its way back to Harchong.

Theoretically, such an amount might come from ~17,000 square miles [~130 miles on a side] assuming 200 lbs per acre is a fair Safehold average crop [experts on 19th century agricultural production can correct these figures from past threads] if everyone on those farms has abandoned them and fled, or perhaps only a bearable tithe from an area ten times that size, which might be agreeable if the farmers are given a pass on double tithes the following year etc.

Given the 10-20% levelers among the BS population, who'd strongly support destroying the Harchong hegemony ASAP, this could happen more easily than I'd initially figured.**


Given how much of the MHoG is internal police or woefully doomed in battle against the alliance, getting a quarter back to Harchong so soon seems another large stretch, that I'm thinking RFC has other plans.

Such as settling the MHoG ex-serfs on RSA, ex-BS, or ex-eastern KotTL land, and making them citizens etc, so they know and understand self rule etc, so when the North Harchong idiots violate whatever peace treaty, this large well trained 'militia' will be primed and prepared to share all they have learned, and sooner than the remaining CoGA adherents expect, thanks to steam tugs or rails to Zion etc by then.

It's an interesting idea. One problem with it may be that it leaves all the women (well, absent those that managed to come along as camp followers or disguised as men to fight) back in Harchong. War in Siddarmark may have left more dead men than women of that generation, but direct combat deaths that are demographically skewed that way are still dwarfed by all of those from starvation, cold, and Clyntahn's Einsatzgruppen. Societies too far from a 1:1 male:female ratio and a tradition of heterosexual monogamy as a norm tend to get issues. Particularly, lots and lots of young men without many women around to act as control rods tend to get a little nuclear. Specifically armed and angry young men are really worrisome that way.


** It wasn't intended as a long term solution, merely an understood preparatory stage to the liberation of northern Harchong, and out of a 102 million BS population, I think there are probably enough single women (~2%), to say nothing of Siddarmark's losses in manpower to mitigate this short term concern.

Given South Harchong's incipient independence resulting from the war, courtesy of the ICN, I could see South Harchong subsidizing the RMHoG's advance to North Harchong to distract it from dealing with the South, or even buying the serf's wives from North Harchong [as previously discussed in earlier threads] then sending them to the RMHoG etc.**


It would help plenty if those serfs-soldiers-immigrants can be spread across Siddarmark (and perhaps beyond), but that undermines their utility as a concentrated militia and may sit poorly with their own remaining sense of Harchongese identity. Perhaps "Harchongtowns" set up across western Siddarmark, with socialization as citizens and girls nearby all around each of them, may be a good compromise.

** I was thinking they'd mostly be in the BS, but the depopulated western republic provinces also works.

If the RMHoG does advance during this war, camping for the winter in their old, now current camps would probably be very amusing to all.

L

Hi Jeremyr,

Welcome to the forums, please enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum.

There's also cinnamon-sugar, or simply buttered toast and chocolate milk; ambrosia in the morning or anytime.

L

jeremyr wrote:

lyonheart wrote:

You may well be right that the local inquisitors will know they're toast [I prefer raspberry on mine]

L

Me too! Raspberry is my favorite.