Louis R wrote:A couple of things:
I still think you're underestimating the degree to which psychology can trump strategy. The Might Host etc. is Clyntahn's fair-haired child. Unlike those closet Reformists from Dohlar and Desnair [of course they are - they keep on quitting instead of trusting God to hand them the victory!], all they need to do is line up shoulder to shoulder to trample Siddarmark into the mud. What can possibly withstand their inexorable progress. Gunpowder? Piffle! The heretics will shoot themselves dry and be smashed by the weight of the remainder. Why would he _allow_ them to be split up. He might permit some discussion of whether it would make better sense to send them around the north or the south, and even let himself be persuaded to do both [which actually does have a strategic argument in its favour] but it won't be for any merely practical reasons.
**I have to disagree with your whole view of the Go4 dynamics, Clyntahn isn't all powerful; he knows his failures have encouraged Magwair and Duchairn, but he can't stop their continued cooperation.
The failure of the Army of Shiloh will continue that process.
Clyntahn's irrationality may be increasing, but he still doesn't have and hasn't tried to control the MHoG from the textev.
Any such attempt will come latter after they get in theater, which will be at least a couple month's at best, since he won't be able to fault Magwair and Duchairn until then.
Breaking the pattern of Magwair and Duchairn's orders requires some overriding reason, which Magwair and Duchairn being rational won't provide him the excuse for attempting this putsch.**
Sure, Maigwair and especially Duchairn know better, but do you think they'll be able to pry operational control of _this_ force out of Clyntahn's hands? Maigwair can't even be sure who his direct subordinates are going to obey. For that matter, is Maigwair himself proof against the vision of Juggernaut bearing down on the opposition on 4 million legs?
** Yes, Magwair is at least that smart.
Remember he created the AoG, which given all its complexity and even faults still impresses Duchairn and even BGV somewhat, according to their textev thoughts.
Magwair has been exercising operational control while they've been traveling over 2000 miles, so I don't see Clyntahn being stupid enough to try to seize control anytime soon, and the message lag means it'll be too late for him to change the outcome of any battle, no matter what kind of military genius he thinks he may be or have become by then.**
Something you are probably _over_estimating is the significance of the South to either side for a considerable period - likely, for the remainder of the war. You also seem to be forgetting what the object of the exercise has to be for the Allies: they need to _destroy_ the AoG, not allow it to withdraw, lick its wounds further and come back, with or without the Mighty etc. Sure, taking Dairnyth cuts off Kaitwyrth's supply line and puts the alliance back on the Bay of Bess, but what does the AoGht do then? Probably, hightails it back to Lake City, with water transport available most, maybe all, the way to the Sair. Even if Kaitswyrth hasn't learned anything, you can be sure his better divisional commanders have. Let Maigwair get them back in reach and had them over to our friend Bishop Barhnabai, and the AoSyl won't be going anyplace it doesn't want to. The immediate need is to cut Kaitwyrth off in Aivahnstyn, or better pull him into a deployment to the south and east, pin him down and destroy him. Which means that the Army of Cliff Peak has to hook up behind him _now_, not take a holiday on the sea shore. It would make a lot of sense for Eastshare to head to Dairnyth first, then move back up the Fairmyn leaving Hanth to keep the Dohlarans trimmed back, but High Mount should be heading straight to the Daivyn behind Aivahnstyn, hopefully with something going on to distract Kaitswyrth and keep him from noticing or at least thinking that he should maybe ignore the urging he's getting to hold fast.
** How is it you think I don't expect the AoG to be destroyed in detail very soon?
That is, by mid April at the latest.
Given General Symkyn's [GS] superior troops and firepower, I don't think Kaitswyrth will get away.
For some reason you and Anwi seem to keep forgetting him and his 75,000 man army.
Sending EHM up to Aivahstyn would mean Kaitswyrth is occupying the attention of 2 alliance armies that have around twice his effective numbers, I don't see the alliance, especially the inner circle being that stupid.
Given how demented you think Clyntahn is, having him finally grant Kaitswyrth permission to retreat counters your whole argument.
The connecting canal locks won't be fixed until April, Kaitswyrth may not exist by the time he might try to use them if he did get permission.
EHM isn't headed to Dairnyth for a holiday, but to hold and defend the alliance flank, NTM cut the temple's communications with Dohlar, Silkiah and the whole continent of Howard, among other strategically important things; I thought you had seen and argued for that before.
Now I've previously argued that EHM should head for the Daivyn River because I've expected that the MHoG center sub-army would head directly across from the Bedard canal east end to the Charayn Canal to replace Kaitswyrth ASAP in only about 20+ days if they had enough dragons etc.
I've then described how a combination of ironclads and GS on the north shore and EHM on the south might destroy AGC rather easily.**
The AoSyl needs the same treatment, but unfortunately I'm not very sanguine about Wyrshym letting it happen. Ideally, the AoM will slip in behind him while his attention is held by an attack on his forward units out of the Gap. If that happens, his army is gone, and hopefully all its senior commanders killed of captured, but it depends on him not noticing a whole army marching down out of the Ohlahrn Gap until too late. Somehow, I can't see that happening. I'm not at all sure that even Kaitswyrth can be nailed down, although his personality suggests that there's at least a good chance of doing it.
** I'm betting BGV will achieve strategic surprise, and Wyrshym's remaining army down at the lake will be too deep to escape [200-250 miles south of Guarnak in winter] and being caught between both alliance forces will be effectively crushed.
I don't see Clyntahn suddenly authorizing either to retreat, however sensible that might be.
Given all the concern about Ahlverez being condemned from the pulpit for running away, I don't see the same idiot permitting the AoG armies to get away with doing the same, when he hasn't before.
Before the MHoG can begin to move, the Go4 are going to find themselves with a couple fewer armies, allies and a continent than they thought they had..
Expecting them to keep the MHoG wholly intact after that disaster is absurd.
I look forward to your future posts**
*quote="lyonheart"*Hi Anwi,
Given the alliance has 2-3 month's before the MHoGatA gets to the front, I think the alliance has plenty of time to make things much worse for the Go4, forcing them to split it into at least 4 sub armies as I've suggested so many times before.
Regarding whether they're being ready for war, I guess it depends on your definition of trained troops [a few month's training during the winter really won't prepare them for what they're about to experience, and I suspect RFC is going to highlight many of their inadequacies as they get closer to the front lines.
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Remembering that Kaitswyrth had only around 9,000 rifles at last report while Symkyn has some 75,000 well armed men, Kaitswyrth and what's left of his army aren't long for this world, nor do I expect Wyrshym to last until May either.
Given all the bad news about to happen to their armies the Go4 will have to split up their last army, making it far easier to defeat in detail.
So no, they don't need to concentrate the ICA all up north.
I've previously explained in probably too much detail how one or two ICA/alliance armies working together could defeat the respective MHoGatA sub armies rather easily, especially given the strategic and tactical mastery the ICA has already demonstrated.
I don't see why Symkyn couldn't provide the viewpoint character needed to eliminate Kaitswyrth, since that's how he was first used in MTaT.
< snip >
Given EHM is west and north of DE, having him go further south seems far less efficient than I'd expect from DE, crossing 2 supply lines etc.
Given DE's preference for celerity from the first time we read his interaction with Merlin, I don't think he's moving very slowly now, especially when he has the enemy on the run.
Granted he has to sort out the POW's, and save as many of the ~60-67,000 captured cavalry mounts (how many have to be put down etc) and possibly send them south to those patriotic provinces to restore, since they're rather rare and valuable in the republic right now, but that's probably another thread.
If EHM takes Dairnyth, then Kaitswyrth and any MHoGatA sub army heading west from the Langhorne Canal will soon starve, providing rather more depth for the republic, and enabling Symkyn to flank any sub army headed east via the repaired canals, and cut its supply line behind it.
< snip >
L
anwi wrote:
I agree that Eastshare and High Mount have a strategic decision to take: Reinforce Hanth at the Seridahn or revert back to the northern theatre. For me, the Dohlarans are sidelined already; keeping them contained for now and keep South March an effective "wasteland" with no good military objectives should do the trick.
Simultaneously, the "mighty host" will arrive in two or three months at the borders of Hildermoss Province. You might want to have all the elite troops there where you need them. Thus, it's very likely that - after mopping up around Kharmych - a larger part of both Eastshare's and High Mount's units returns north. I guess it'll be Eastshare to go back to his original theatre via the Branath canal - although that guess is based on RFC's need to have DE there as a viewpoint character to tell the spring campaign against Kaitswyrth.
In that scenario, EHM might stay back to capture Ahlverez.
There's only one caveat here: We know that 8000 stragglers reached Kaitswyrth. That adds up only if there is no hot pursuit of Charisian troops (dragoons in particular) on the way north (or if more Desnairians escape the trap than I assume and they were harried north...). So, if I'm correct, DE took his time. But I'm not seeing him invading Dohlar or heading to Dairnyth at all.