Hi McGuiness,
I'm sorry I passed this up, I confused it with another one of your posts.
Again what does MOH mean?
**My comments between the **'s
[quote="McGuiness"][quote="n7axw"]When the MOH starts to move, it's going to be strung out like beads on a string. I hope the allies have someone in position for a flanking attack, or even better, cut off their supplies.
<snip>
What I mean is that they are going to have a very l-o-n-g flank and a very narrow front. IIRC the AOS had something like an 18 mile long flank as they traveled toward Ft. Tairys... Well organized flanking attacks by allied units should be very effective in chopping up the MOH train, given their comparatively slow ability to react and maneuver.
** Actually it was Ahlverez after Alyksberg in MTaT, and that was with only around 50,000 men, so the MHoG sub army of 400K would take 8 times that or ~216 miles.**
Don[/quote]Snipers could certainly harry the massive line of soldiers, barges, and wagons as the MOH moves along. I'm sure it will have extensive cavalry units protecting its flanks, although there are certainly places where that won't be possible - like [i]"the sides of the Ambyltyn Hill Cut, no more than four miles east of Sarkyn, [which] towered over four hundred feet above canal level at the cut’s deepest point! And smooth, like polished marble!"[/i] If there are any locations like that in Siddarmark (that offer a safe route of retreat!) the allies could certainly make the MOH pay a [i]serious [/i]price to fight its way past them, while avoiding a repeat of being overrun like the blocking force that stopped Kaitswyrth's initial thrust into Glacierheart before DE arrived, but died to the last man.
** First of all, the MHoG will easily pass Sairkyn before the alliance armies could ever get close to it at the moment, but that's fine if it means Symkyn can cut the Langhorne at Sarkyn later at the appropriate time, ie about a month or 9 5days after the MHoG goes by.
Of course trying to defend everything the alliance armies might attack could reduce the MHoG by 5-10% at each such node or vulnerability like a lock etc, could reduce the MHoG numerical superiority to zero rather quickly.**
My worry is that the MOH will be split into two or more massive parts and sent after Hanth to save Dohlar, to reinforce Kaitswyrth, and to smash BGV. Granted it's easier to defeat an army of 600,000 that carries "only" 200,000 rifles than one of 1.6 million with 600,000 rifles!
** Yup.
I've previously labeled the IHA or MHoG sub-armies as North, Center, and South; with the obvious Operation Barbarossa army groups' connotations of ultimate failure.
The center army might reach it's theater soonest, by marching straight across the Border states to the Charayn Canal [~800 miles] in around 20 days at best, then relying on river barges up the Fairmyn for supply, until Symkyn and some river ironclads destroy it on the South Daivyn River a couple of 5days later.
Some believe there's some yet unknown physical terrain still unmarked that makes such a march unlikely or rather difficult, which might be quite true; but Clyntahn will insist on replacing Kaitswyrth, though via the canals could take over three times as long.
Remembering Napoleon's dictum "ask me for anything but time", infers such a round about route is again doomed to failure.**
This is the point where I wonder if the Great Canal Raid was a good idea, assuming that Earl Highmount would have arrived in time to stop Wyrshym from curling around the mountains east of the Sylmahn Gap to attack Old Province from the north. If he had, then the hordes of Harchongese would have been very little more than cannon fodder, a [i]massive [/i]drain on the CoGA's logistics, and much more dangerous to the local [i]daughters [/i]of Mother Church than the enemy during most of their travels. The revulsion that would have resulted among even the TLs in Siddarmark as they were the victims of multiple waves of rape and plunder would have turned them against the jihad, even though most of them wouldn't dare to raise a hand against the CoGA.
** You are free to wonder that, but you need to study the textev and maps to plot the MHoG's advance and time to Lake City etc; they were starting from just too far west to ever be truly considered by the Go4 as combatants last year, whatever Clyntahn may have wished.
For future reference, always keep in mind that there was simply no way the MHoGatA was going to get into Siddarmark especially that far east before winter even before the 'GCR' [Cayleb's "Great Canal Raid"].
They were going to get trapped for the winter somewhere around Lake City in October [if they got that far] and freeze to death, if they didn't stop earlier and adequately prepare, given the great backlog of barges blocking the way to Lake City; which is what Duchairn recommended to Magwair, who was smart enough to approve such wisdom.
The point about being turned into soldiers includes the discipline of not acting like a mindless mob raping and plundering especially given all the emperor's spears as police, plus Duchairn's mastery of that part of logistics should make foraging etc unnecessary for the MHoG as they move up the canal**
Merlin may have some of the same thoughts about the Great Canal Raid's unintended results - and if he does, it will be one of the few times I've managed to accurately predict what's coming. Even if he doesn't, he and the allies are now forced to look at the Harchongese force with a great deal of dismay. Of course the CoGA isn't necessarily overjoyed, since it has to treat the MOH as a two-edged sword. It's basically a swarm of locusts as it travels, especially if the church's logistics force it to forage. Slaves that are turned loose on a local populace who they believe have turned against God are going to commit atrocities (even the local TLs) when they believe God has waived all rules of decency due to the rules of jihad.
** Please think through all that you're apparently so worried about.
Given that the AoG already passed through the same route last year, the TL's are the only ones left and are thus protected by the CoGA if not the AoG directly, so any mistreatment will be punished by church if not the laws of war etc, so given how devout the Harchong serfs are supposed to be, it's not going to be that big of a problem in the first place, assuming they get past Five Forks, which I doubt.
So lighten up, man!**
The best thing to do with the MOH from the allied viewpoint is to send it home with all its rifles, plenty of ammo, and blood in its eye after learning that not only did its masters intend that none of the serfs that make up the vast majority of its numbers ever return home, but that they intended to use them as cannon fodder! Once the serfs of the MOH learn that their devotion was betrayed, the thirst for vengeance against their masters is going to overwhelm them, and they would be rather seek revenge against those who have lied to and mistreated them rather than die at the hands of the allied forces.
**This has been theorized about more than a time or two here, and you are very welcome to suggest workable ways how to accomplish that task so logically and simply, remembering you're dealing with at least 1.6 million rather complicated humans.
Targeting the aristocratic officers by the alliance may be part of such a strategy of demonstrating the alliance's superior long range firepower without killing the ex-serf soldiers in job lots, but I don't think its going to be that easy; the whole problem is obviously far more complicated than you make it seem.**
I'm not sure how the allies could get the MOH (or any part of it) to surrender and return home for vengeance without putting Siddarmarkans through a second round of rape and pillage as it retreats. I doubt anyone but Merlin and Archbishop Staynair would feel too badly for the Border States and Harchong as the horde makes its way home, or for the massive slave revolt that would result once it arrives...
** Yep.
Well, once the CoGA stops feeding it, getting the whole MHoG home as such a large organised force this year or next pretty much goes out the window, unless the alliance somehow comes up with the food and fodder to supply them all the way home, via the same church controlled canals [who would destroy the locks to prevent such a devastating march through their remaining territory], which seems a bit of a stretch for RFC when it comes to story telling believability.
Given how much of the MHoG is internal police or woefully doomed in battle against the alliance, getting a quarter back to Harchong so soon seems another large stretch, that I'm thinking RFC has other plans.
Such as settling the MHoG ex-serfs on RSA, ex-BS, or ex-eastern KotTL land, and making them citizens etc, so they know and understand self rule etc, so when the North Harchong idiots violate whatever peace treaty, this large well trained 'militia' will be primed and prepared to share all they have learned, and sooner than the remaining CoGA adherents expect, thanks to steam tugs or rails to Zion etc by then.**
Should that happen, I doubt Magwair would survive. That would unbalance the Go4, weakening Duchairn as well, since he's in charge of logistics. At that point Duchairn would be forced to attempt any coup he may have planned with the aid of Captain Phandys. That would result in a civil war among the Temple Guard and the forces controlled by the Inquisition in the temple and Zion. Clyntahn might get what's coming to him, but I don't see how - he has complete control of the large Inquisition forces in the area, as well as the Temple Guard - as far as we know.
** Again keep the time required for all you suggest in perspective, it'll take the better part of a year for the MHoG to go home if it does immediately, of which I have my doubts; NTM there are going to be so many things happening to the CoGA and Go4 by then that singling Magwair out for that will be lost in all the other chaos I can see coming down the road.
For example by the end of this year [897 YoG] the EoC should have produced something near 300,000 M96's, which means they could turn that many old Mahndrayns over to the RSA, which combined with their own production and captured rifles could mean the alliance has over million men equipped with some kind of rifle, while after the MHoG is destroyed or surrendered etc, the Go4 may have half that left since Dohlar will be gone, to try to defend the KotTL, since they're going to abandon the Border States to buy time to build up their replacement armies.
How the Border States respond to such betrayal will also be interesting, but I think the RoS will find extending its western border further westward won't be that hard.
**
Merlin still [i]needs [/i]Clyntahn as much as he hates him, since the Grand Iniquitor never met a dispensation he didn't like as long as it helps the war effort. Having someone like Duchairn in charge, who would be likely to reform the vicarate and cleanse the Inquisition is the [i]last [/i]thing Merlin needs in his attempt to industrialize Safehold and spur innovation. The day that the CoGA is forced to sue for terms is coming, but I expect that will only happen after the ICN sails into Temple Bay and captures the Temple, allowing Merlin and the inner circle to be in position to thwart whatever is lurking in the Temple basement.[/quote]
** Yup.
That's all pretty much a given, assuming Duchairn would survive.
Sorry this took so long.
L
**
