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HFQ Official Snippet #20

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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by anwi   » Fri Mar 20, 2015 1:03 pm

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Hi Lyonheart, some comments further below.
However, on the issue of what to do with Dohlar (you want to invade, I'll leave it to the navy) and where the Harchongians will be (I see them all in Tarikah, for a start, you probably assume some go to Dohlar), we're simply on different sides of the argument. We'll have to wait and read...

lyonheart wrote:Remembering that Kaitswyrth had only around 9,000 rifles at last report while Symkyn has some 75,000 well armed men, Kaitswyrth and what's left of his army aren't long for this world, nor do I expect Wyrshym to last until May either.


First, I'd expect some resupply and reinforcements for Kaitswyrth. But, basically, you're right. Both can't withstand a concentrated assault of their respective opponents. While I fully expect them to be driven back to the Hildermoss, I don't expect both Kaitswyrth and Wyrshym to be encircled and captured. But that's open to debate.

lyonheart wrote:Given all the bad news about to happen to their armies the Go4 will have to split up their last army, making it far easier to defeat in detail.

That strategic decision of Maigwair (probably) is still unknown. I assume that he wants to keep all the Harchongians well under his thumb, on a workable supply line and in "one place". The rationale would be that no army of men could hold its ground against a million soldiers attacking simultaneously. Now, Maigwair'll get an object lesson in the false premise in the previous statement, but I figure that trying to swamp the ICA units is about the best strategy he will come up with. So, I see the MHoG in Tarikah Province at the start of the campaign season. And there's not a lot the Alliance could do against that, given the positions of their units. Nor should they...

lyonheart wrote:I think your point was that they weren't pursued like they could or should have been.

We don't know how many started out to follow Hennet, so these could be the few survivors.

Yes. I got the impression that the entrapment at Kharmych was largely successful, and relatively few of the Desnairian units escaped. But we could be wrong there, in which case there should be ICA troops pursuing those units north. Still, the textev says that these stragglers reached the Army of Glacierheart, and that's rather unlikely if the Army of Glacierheart is defeated as early as your strategic movements assume.

lyonheart wrote:If EHM takes Dairnyth, then Kaitswyrth and any MHoGatA sub army heading west from the Langhorne Canal will soon starve,

Why bother. ICA land troops can't realistically be there before the King Haraahld VII - and before the action in the north resumes in late spring. Give the navy some credit. Moreover, if you dislodge Kaitswyrth from Aivahnstyn and force him back north, his supply line via Dairnyth is irrelevant anyways.

lyonheart wrote:Since you're worried about the MHoGatA getting to the Hildermoss or points east, suppose the ironclads make an appearance again but this time only to trigger the locks being blown, again draining the canals and leaving the MHoGatA's supply barges stuck; high and dry, unable to be supplied for weeks so they too are facing starvation too soon and have to retreat regardless of what Clyntahn insists is their duty.

First, I have to agree with others that already pointed out that flanking attacks on the MHoG will be difficult at best, especially if you're planning to do those over more than 500 miles and over land. Whatever.
I'm not worried about the MHoG reaching Hildermoss Province, it's simply my assumption about their likely deployment and progress before they can realistically make contact with leading ICA and SRA units. And your remark on an attack on their supply route, e.g. by river class monitors, is one of my favourite options for tackling the MHoG. Therefore, the deployment of ICA troops should be accordingly: You drive Kaitswyrth and Wyrshym back to the Hildermoss, prepare strong defensive positions with the troops you have and then let the MHoG come and stop them dead in their tracks. After that, cut off the supply route and you make a good catch at the shores of Lake Isyn.
But for that approach to work, you better be sure that the MHoG really won't swamp your lines. The way RFC has written about the battle-readiness of the MHoG, they are seen as a serious threat by Merlin and Cayleb. (We both agree that the threat actually is far less...) They will likely want to have the elite units under DE and EHM at their disposal for the campaign.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by Louis R   » Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:30 pm

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A couple of things:

I still think you're underestimating the degree to which psychology can trump strategy. The Might Host etc. is Clyntahn's fair-haired child. Unlike those closet Reformists from Dohlar and Desnair [of course they are - they keep on quitting instead of trusting God to hand them the victory!], all they need to do is line up shoulder to shoulder to trample Siddarmark into the mud. What can possibly withstand their inexorable progress. Gunpowder? Piffle! The heretics will shoot themselves dry and be smashed by the weight of the remainder. Why would he _allow_ them to be split up. He might permit some discussion of whether it would make better sense to send them around the north or the south, and even let himself be persuaded to do both [which actually does have a strategic argument in its favour] but it won't be for any merely practical reasons.

Sure, Maigwair and especially Duchairn know better, but do you think they'll be able to pry operational control of _this_ force out of Clyntahn's hands? Maigwair can't even be sure who his direct subordinates are going to obey. For that matter, is Maigwair himself proof against the vision of Juggernaut bearing down on the opposition on 4 million legs?

Something you are probably _over_estimating is the significance of the South to either side for a considerable period - likely, for the remainder of the war. You also seem to be forgetting what the object of the exercise has to be for the Allies: they need to _destroy_ the AoG, not allow it to withdraw, lick its wounds further and come back, with or without the Mighty etc. Sure, taking Dairnyth cuts off Kaitwyrth's supply line and puts the alliance back on the Bay of Bess, but what does the AoGht do then? Probably, hightails it back to Lake City, with water transport available most, maybe all, the way to the Sair. Even if Kaitswyrth hasn't learned anything, you can be sure his better divisional commanders have. Let Maigwair get them back in reach and had them over to our friend Bishop Barhnabai, and the AoSyl won't be going anyplace it doesn't want to. The immediate need is to cut Kaitwyrth off in Aivahnstyn, or better pull him into a deployment to the south and east, pin him down and destroy him. Which means that the Army of Cliff Peak has to hook up behind him _now_, not take a holiday on the sea shore. It would make a lot of sense for Eastshare to head to Dairnyth first, then move back up the Fairmyn leaving Hanth to keep the Dohlarans trimmed back, but High Mount should be heading straight to the Daivyn behind Aivahnstyn, hopefully with something going on to distract Kaitswyrth and keep him from noticing or at least thinking that he should maybe ignore the urging he's getting to hold fast.

The AoSyl needs the same treatment, but unfortunately I'm not very sanguine about Wyrshym letting it happen. Ideally, the AoM will slip in behind him while his attention is held by an attack on his forward units out of the Gap. If that happens, his army is gone, and hopefully all its senior commanders killed of captured, but it depends on him not noticing a whole army marching down out of the Ohlahrn Gap until too late. Somehow, I can't see that happening. I'm not at all sure that even Kaitswyrth can be nailed down, although his personality suggests that there's at least a good chance of doing it.


lyonheart wrote:Hi Anwi,

Given the alliance has 2-3 month's before the MHoGatA gets to the front, I think the alliance has plenty of time to make things much worse for the Go4, forcing them to split it into at least 4 sub armies as I've suggested so many times before.

Regarding whether they're being ready for war, I guess it depends on your definition of trained troops [a few month's training during the winter really won't prepare them for what they're about to experience, and I suspect RFC is going to highlight many of their inadequacies as they get closer to the front lines.

< snip >
Remembering that Kaitswyrth had only around 9,000 rifles at last report while Symkyn has some 75,000 well armed men, Kaitswyrth and what's left of his army aren't long for this world, nor do I expect Wyrshym to last until May either.

Given all the bad news about to happen to their armies the Go4 will have to split up their last army, making it far easier to defeat in detail.

So no, they don't need to concentrate the ICA all up north.

I've previously explained in probably too much detail how one or two ICA/alliance armies working together could defeat the respective MHoGatA sub armies rather easily, especially given the strategic and tactical mastery the ICA has already demonstrated.

I don't see why Symkyn couldn't provide the viewpoint character needed to eliminate Kaitswyrth, since that's how he was first used in MTaT.

< snip >

Given EHM is west and north of DE, having him go further south seems far less efficient than I'd expect from DE, crossing 2 supply lines etc.

Given DE's preference for celerity from the first time we read his interaction with Merlin, I don't think he's moving very slowly now, especially when he has the enemy on the run.

Granted he has to sort out the POW's, and save as many of the ~60-67,000 captured cavalry mounts (how many have to be put down etc) and possibly send them south to those patriotic provinces to restore, since they're rather rare and valuable in the republic right now, but that's probably another thread.

If EHM takes Dairnyth, then Kaitswyrth and any MHoGatA sub army heading west from the Langhorne Canal will soon starve, providing rather more depth for the republic, and enabling Symkyn to flank any sub army headed east via the repaired canals, and cut its supply line behind it.

< snip >

L

anwi wrote:
I agree that Eastshare and High Mount have a strategic decision to take: Reinforce Hanth at the Seridahn or revert back to the northern theatre. For me, the Dohlarans are sidelined already; keeping them contained for now and keep South March an effective "wasteland" with no good military objectives should do the trick.
Simultaneously, the "mighty host" will arrive in two or three months at the borders of Hildermoss Province. You might want to have all the elite troops there where you need them. Thus, it's very likely that - after mopping up around Kharmych - a larger part of both Eastshare's and High Mount's units returns north. I guess it'll be Eastshare to go back to his original theatre via the Branath canal - although that guess is based on RFC's need to have DE there as a viewpoint character to tell the spring campaign against Kaitswyrth.
In that scenario, EHM might stay back to capture Ahlverez.
There's only one caveat here: We know that 8000 stragglers reached Kaitswyrth. That adds up only if there is no hot pursuit of Charisian troops (dragoons in particular) on the way north (or if more Desnairians escape the trap than I assume and they were harried north...). So, if I'm correct, DE took his time. But I'm not seeing him invading Dohlar or heading to Dairnyth at all.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by n7axw   » Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:31 pm

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Hi Louis R,

I see Wyrshym being trapped between BGV who takes Guernak (sp) and the units holding the cork in the Sylvan Gap. The good Baron might not take him completely by surprise, but the whole point of his winter march was to accomplish exactly that.

As for Kaitwryth, his vulnerability is that he has so few firearms at this point in time. He is going to have to retreat or he is going to be flanked and besieged with his supplies cut off. He might be able to retreat, but if well armed EOC dragoons catch him out in the open, at this point he has no viable counter given his shortage of rifles.

We are probably going to disagree on this, but I don't think either AOG army will get away intact.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Mar 21, 2015 1:19 am

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Hi PeterZ,

It's always good to read your posts.

Dohlar could easily collapse into the chaos you describe so well, but my gut feeling is RFC won't let it happen for various reasons, in part because of what he's long planned for Thirsk and Ahlverez to do to prevent it.

Dohlar may have to learn the hard way what real naval superiority means to a country with a long indefensible coastline, as well as the downside of doing the Go4's bidding in attacking a neighbor when the neighbor strikes back, besides all the internal turmoil and change generated from the jihad.

Part of the 50+K force may already be reinforcing Hanth, although I'd rather have them all taking the Salthar-Silk Town Canal very soon, but the textev implication is that's not going to happen as soon as I'd like.

So Dohlar's full trial might have to wait until summer when the KH VII's arrive.

L


[quote="PeterZ"]Very Nice, Lyonheart. I forgot about that last 50,000 leaving Chisholm. If they take the Salthar Canal, they could send the Rivers to clear a landing in the Duchy of Salthar.

My thought was the central duchies and Salthar would vie for filling the vacuum left by the chaos of the allies attacks on the border and coastal duchies. The end result is that there would be no central authority to keep the peace.

Assuming those 50,000 do take Silk Town and the Salthar Canal, the duchy of Salthar is threatened. The ICN is raiding the Western coast of Dohlar and DE, EHM and Hanth are relentlessly moving in from the Siddermarkian border. It would seem to me that the longer Dohlar resists, the less able they will be to maintain order if the allies leave them to their own devices. Whoever ends up in control of Dohlar would have to pacify the brigands and other lawless elements that will have arisen.

Yes, Ahlvarez will have the reputation to organize forces to begin the pacification. I just don't see Dohlar giving up before the ICN and Corisande let 30k-50k troops raiding the Western coast thoroughly destroy that infrastructure. What they leave behind will not support any sizable shipping volume for years to come. They simply cannot leave that infrastructure behind unless they plan to occupy. Barring occupation the allies cannot leave a potential supply line to support the GH in a southern campaign.

That destroyed infrastructure means many unemployed harbor workers looking for livelihood. Farmers will have no place to send their goods beyond what would be needed for local consumption. More workers at loose ends. The allies march South-Westward from Siddermark will send more refugees towards the inner duchies. Now toss in the Salthar prong and that's even more refugees fleeing towards the apparent safety of the inner duchies.

Seems to me that there would be a huge incentive for someone to take over for the current leadership for no other reason that to surrender before the allies complete the destruction of Dohlar. I doubt this will be a protracted, multi-factioned affair; either the putsch will be quick and clean or it will fail. So, with the Salthar prong in place, I see Dohlar either surrendering early or resisting until they turn into a morass of chaos for Ahlvarez to clean up after his release. I doubt the allies can generate any goodwill with Dohlar. their need to defeat the GH will leave Dohlar a bleeding mess.

[quote="lyonheart"]Hi PeterZ,

Having such strong support among the army veterans will be quite a potent power base for Ahlverez, regardless whether he escapes or not.

If Dohlar drags out its surrender/accommodation until summer, by which time the ICN is raiding its whole long coast, the remaining nobility will have too much on their plates keeping what they have, to waste too much time scrambling for the national leadership; if the ICN isn't raiding specifically to remove them, while an alliance army from Salthar advances on Gorath, with Hanth etc driving from Siddermark, the terms they might get being far less. ;)

L


[quote="PeterZ"]What happens if Ahlvarez is captured with his men and kept with all the other POWs captured in the Kyplinger? I suspect that Ahvarez will turn that group into a coherent unit. Fast forward to the destruction of Dohlar's coastal cities by the KH VIIs and the shredding of Dohlar's armed forces. Dohlar can turn into Somalia as the petty aristos fight for supremacy or an effective leader turns up. Thirsk is either dead or does not have enough pull with the army to gather a sufficient force to consolidate power. How much is Ahlvarez and his coherent force worth then? Quite a lot if the goal is to make Dohlar stable.[/quote][/quote][/quote]
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:58 am

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Hi McGuiness,

I'll comment below between **'s, if I may. ;)

McGuiness wrote:
PeterZ wrote:What happens if Ahlvarez is captured with his men and kept with all the other POWs captured in the Kyplinger? I suspect that Ahvarez will turn that group into a coherent unit. Fast forward to the destruction of Dohlar's coastal cities by the KH VIIs and the shredding of Dohlar's armed forces. Dohlar can turn into Somalia as the petty aristos fight for supremacy or an effective leader turns up. Thirsk is either dead or does not have enough pull with the army to gather a sufficient force to consolidate power. How much is Ahlvarez and his coherent force worth then? Quite a lot if the goal is to make Dohlar stable.
Whether Ahlverez makes it home or spends some time as a POW, he's most likely got a role to play in Dohlar after the war. Since Dohlar may be the first of the mainland realms to officially come to terms with the EoC, he may be repatriated sooner than he suspects. Keep in mind that he thought "I owe Thirsk an apology" when he realized that his relative who led the Dohlaran galley fleet in OAR to its complete destruction was every bit as arrogant and stupid as the Desnairan leadership of the AoS.

I don't think RFC mentioned that fleeting thought just to compare the arrogant incompetence that led both commanders and their forces to utter ruin. I think it was a foreshadowing that Thirsk and Ahlverez will have a joint role in the future of Dohlar.


**I think most posters have that same conclusion, or so it appeared to me from past threads, which is why I've touted Thirsk and Ahlverez as co regents etc.**


Cayleb may or may not shorten King Rahnyld by a head, but some aggressive vengeance is in order to protect any future allied POWs. If a king of one of the great mainland realms who was duly appointed by the vicarate can be executed for turning POWs over to the Inquisition, what ruler or military commander would dare to turn POWs over to the Inquisition in the future? (Especially if Mab's letter to Clyntahn has been posted on a lot of walls?) :twisted:


**I think there are several similar reasons Rahnyld IV's reign won't last much longer on Safehold, but you're quite right and well put about setting the standard of correct treatment of POW's, and warning all current and future national leaders of the punishment they face if they fail to protect their POW's.

Keep in mind, that this message, if not new rule of war, transcends if not outright supplants the CoGA's authority as the arbiter of the laws of war; denying the whole concept of jihad or holy war as enabling all such atrocities.

This alliance proclamation will hit the Go4 and the current continental powers in ways they may not ever fully fathom.

That said, I suspect Cayleb's term's to Dohlar are going to be relatively generous as usual, possibly playing the good cop to the Lord Protector's bad cop. 8-) **


As the ranking Dohlaran POW, Ahlverez would be ashamed by the drastic contrast between how he and his men are treated in contrast to how Dohlar treated Gwylym Manthyr and his men. Although Thirsk did his best to protect them, he would have been executed if he'd defied the lawful order to hand them to the Inquisition. So the head of the NoG and Dohlar's premier general both see the Inquisition as the monster it is, in stark contrast to how the EoC treats its prisoners - and that it takes prisoners!

Ahlverez clearly feels the same betrayal and loathing for the Inquisition that Thirsk feels, since he's convinced that Clyntahn will make a scapegoat of him if he manages to lead his ragged army home. I'm sure the ICA will be more than happy to merely incarcerate him and his forces for the duration if it captures them, but if the tables were turned, Ahlverez would be forced by the psychotic Inquisition to slaughter any allied prisoners to the last man. He also knows that the Charisians still follow the Laws of War, since he left his wounded behind and the ICA cared for them as if they were their own.

Thirsk and Ahlverez both feel the shame of defeat and the fear of the Inquisition, which wishes to make scapegoats of them both. Thirsk longs to escape, and Ahlverez is beginning to wonder if it's worth it for him to accomplish the daunting task of leading his army home, merely to be arrested by the Inquisition.

Clyntahn is clearly his own worst enemy, but he has no understanding that his fanatical zeal to destroy "heresy" wherever it can be found (or invented) is affecting the military commanders of the CoGA. Someday soon that's going to bite him on the butt. :lol:


** All quite true.

If Dairnyth is taken fairly soon, ie in another month or so more, then the Dohlar leadership will have more flexibility in admitting the Go4's errors and adapting to their new post Go4 environment.

Their adaptation may signal to the remaining continental nations just how much things have changed already, even before the alliance takes Zion and the temple, even if temporarily for obvious political reasons.

Clyntahn is indeed his own worst enemy, and his increasing insanity as witnessed by his own textev thinking, indicate its only getting worse; how RFC will justly end such a monster, including revealing how outclassed and out thought he was, is something I'm looking forward to.

"Thus to all tyrants"

L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:42 am

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Hi Don,

I quite agree. ;)

Having Ahlverez spend some time as an alliance POW, something I hadn't previously considered in such a positive light, thus providing him with some additional perspective on who is more honorable etc could be critical in where Dohlar goes after Rahnyld IV gives up the ghost.

The inquisition is going to quite busy elsewhere, especially since Duchairn and Magwair know it was Desnarian logistic incompetence that sabotaged their army AGAIN, so scapegoating Ahlverez won't fly, especially if Duchairn and the others send congratulations to Ahlverez before Clyntahn can condemn him.

What does Clyntahn know in the first place?

Fyrnach, like all of his other probable Desnari critics, is probably dead or at best a POW, so he isn't able to blame Ahlverez for being sensible either, while Duchairn and Magwair will defend his common sense if not wisdom.

Clyntahn sending the inquisition after Ahlverez could certainly end the popular support for it in Dohlar, crucial to any future changes, so I suspect something like that will happen in some form that will go public, with the other 3 blaming him for 'losing' Dohlar, something that might include Magwair bringing in more temple guards or arming them more heavily etc.

You may well be right that the local inquisitors will know they're toast [I prefer raspberry on mine] if they carry out Clyntahn's orders, and do so in only a half-hearted fashion, that enables Ahlverez to escape or capitalize on it.

If as I suggest in my new thread regarding the smaller ironclads getting to the Bay of Bess sooner than expected via the Dairnyth canal, the inquisitors who make it that far might have fun trying to dodge the ICN patrols, if not OWL's broadsides throughout Dohlar offering rewards for their capture.

Given so many fires and nothing left except the MHoG to put them out, I don't see how the Go4 can do anything but divide the MHoG into 3-4 smaller sub armies to deal with all of them.

With Wyrshym and Kaitswyrth both effectively gone by April or May, and Dohlar truly on the ropes, 3 sub-armies seem a minimum.

Keeping a quarter as a reserve to be reequipped and retrained with the latest weapons, would seem obvious to me, but Clyntahn will probably insist on the biggest club possible.

L


n7axw wrote:Either Alhverez gets home with his troops or as a released POV. That, of course, assumes that he doesn't become a casualty.

I don't think that the Inquisition will be able to scapegoat anyone, by the time he gets back either way. If he gets back before Dohlar surrenders, the politics of getting his people home are going to work in his favor. In that event Dohlar will be isolated from Zion and the local inquisitors will be looking to themselves with both their lines of communication cut and their authority severely weakened since the Dohlarans themselves will no longer be particularly cooperative. They will gladly blame Desnair, particularly since the Dohlarans don't really like Desnair anyhow.

If Dohlar surrenders, the inquisitors know they are toast (maybe with peanut butter or jelly) when the EOC gets ahold of them which will probably render any notions of scapegoating Ahlverez mute.

As for Clyntahn, he is shortly going to have larger issues to deal with as both of the Temple's main armies are taken off the board, leaving only the Harchongians between him and the heretics.

Don
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Mar 21, 2015 6:48 am

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Hi McGuiness,

I'm sorry I passed this up, I confused it with another one of your posts.

Again what does MOH mean? ;)

**My comments between the **'s :D


[quote="McGuiness"][quote="n7axw"]When the MOH starts to move, it's going to be strung out like beads on a string. I hope the allies have someone in position for a flanking attack, or even better, cut off their supplies.

<snip>

What I mean is that they are going to have a very l-o-n-g flank and a very narrow front. IIRC the AOS had something like an 18 mile long flank as they traveled toward Ft. Tairys... Well organized flanking attacks by allied units should be very effective in chopping up the MOH train, given their comparatively slow ability to react and maneuver.

** Actually it was Ahlverez after Alyksberg in MTaT, and that was with only around 50,000 men, so the MHoG sub army of 400K would take 8 times that or ~216 miles.**

Don[/quote]Snipers could certainly harry the massive line of soldiers, barges, and wagons as the MOH moves along. I'm sure it will have extensive cavalry units protecting its flanks, although there are certainly places where that won't be possible - like [i]"the sides of the Ambyltyn Hill Cut, no more than four miles east of Sarkyn, [which] towered over four hundred feet above canal level at the cut’s deepest point! And smooth, like polished marble!"[/i] If there are any locations like that in Siddarmark (that offer a safe route of retreat!) the allies could certainly make the MOH pay a [i]serious [/i]price to fight its way past them, while avoiding a repeat of being overrun like the blocking force that stopped Kaitswyrth's initial thrust into Glacierheart before DE arrived, but died to the last man.


** First of all, the MHoG will easily pass Sairkyn before the alliance armies could ever get close to it at the moment, but that's fine if it means Symkyn can cut the Langhorne at Sarkyn later at the appropriate time, ie about a month or 9 5days after the MHoG goes by.

Of course trying to defend everything the alliance armies might attack could reduce the MHoG by 5-10% at each such node or vulnerability like a lock etc, could reduce the MHoG numerical superiority to zero rather quickly.**


My worry is that the MOH will be split into two or more massive parts and sent after Hanth to save Dohlar, to reinforce Kaitswyrth, and to smash BGV. Granted it's easier to defeat an army of 600,000 that carries "only" 200,000 rifles than one of 1.6 million with 600,000 rifles! :?


** Yup.
I've previously labeled the IHA or MHoG sub-armies as North, Center, and South; with the obvious Operation Barbarossa army groups' connotations of ultimate failure. 8-)

The center army might reach it's theater soonest, by marching straight across the Border states to the Charayn Canal [~800 miles] in around 20 days at best, then relying on river barges up the Fairmyn for supply, until Symkyn and some river ironclads destroy it on the South Daivyn River a couple of 5days later.

Some believe there's some yet unknown physical terrain still unmarked that makes such a march unlikely or rather difficult, which might be quite true; but Clyntahn will insist on replacing Kaitswyrth, though via the canals could take over three times as long.

Remembering Napoleon's dictum "ask me for anything but time", infers such a round about route is again doomed to failure.**


This is the point where I wonder if the Great Canal Raid was a good idea, assuming that Earl Highmount would have arrived in time to stop Wyrshym from curling around the mountains east of the Sylmahn Gap to attack Old Province from the north. If he had, then the hordes of Harchongese would have been very little more than cannon fodder, a [i]massive [/i]drain on the CoGA's logistics, and much more dangerous to the local [i]daughters [/i]of Mother Church than the enemy during most of their travels. The revulsion that would have resulted among even the TLs in Siddarmark as they were the victims of multiple waves of rape and plunder would have turned them against the jihad, even though most of them wouldn't dare to raise a hand against the CoGA.


** You are free to wonder that, but you need to study the textev and maps to plot the MHoG's advance and time to Lake City etc; they were starting from just too far west to ever be truly considered by the Go4 as combatants last year, whatever Clyntahn may have wished.

For future reference, always keep in mind that there was simply no way the MHoGatA was going to get into Siddarmark especially that far east before winter even before the 'GCR' [Cayleb's "Great Canal Raid"].

They were going to get trapped for the winter somewhere around Lake City in October [if they got that far] and freeze to death, if they didn't stop earlier and adequately prepare, given the great backlog of barges blocking the way to Lake City; which is what Duchairn recommended to Magwair, who was smart enough to approve such wisdom.

The point about being turned into soldiers includes the discipline of not acting like a mindless mob raping and plundering especially given all the emperor's spears as police, plus Duchairn's mastery of that part of logistics should make foraging etc unnecessary for the MHoG as they move up the canal**


Merlin may have some of the same thoughts about the Great Canal Raid's unintended results - and if he does, it will be one of the few times I've managed to accurately predict what's coming. Even if he doesn't, he and the allies are now forced to look at the Harchongese force with a great deal of dismay. Of course the CoGA isn't necessarily overjoyed, since it has to treat the MOH as a two-edged sword. It's basically a swarm of locusts as it travels, especially if the church's logistics force it to forage. Slaves that are turned loose on a local populace who they believe have turned against God are going to commit atrocities (even the local TLs) when they believe God has waived all rules of decency due to the rules of jihad.


** Please think through all that you're apparently so worried about.

Given that the AoG already passed through the same route last year, the TL's are the only ones left and are thus protected by the CoGA if not the AoG directly, so any mistreatment will be punished by church if not the laws of war etc, so given how devout the Harchong serfs are supposed to be, it's not going to be that big of a problem in the first place, assuming they get past Five Forks, which I doubt.

So lighten up, man!**


The best thing to do with the MOH from the allied viewpoint is to send it home with all its rifles, plenty of ammo, and blood in its eye after learning that not only did its masters intend that none of the serfs that make up the vast majority of its numbers ever return home, but that they intended to use them as cannon fodder! Once the serfs of the MOH learn that their devotion was betrayed, the thirst for vengeance against their masters is going to overwhelm them, and they would be rather seek revenge against those who have lied to and mistreated them rather than die at the hands of the allied forces.


**This has been theorized about more than a time or two here, and you are very welcome to suggest workable ways how to accomplish that task so logically and simply, remembering you're dealing with at least 1.6 million rather complicated humans.

Targeting the aristocratic officers by the alliance may be part of such a strategy of demonstrating the alliance's superior long range firepower without killing the ex-serf soldiers in job lots, but I don't think its going to be that easy; the whole problem is obviously far more complicated than you make it seem.**


I'm not sure how the allies could get the MOH (or any part of it) to surrender and return home for vengeance without putting Siddarmarkans through a second round of rape and pillage as it retreats. I doubt anyone but Merlin and Archbishop Staynair would feel too badly for the Border States and Harchong as the horde makes its way home, or for the massive slave revolt that would result once it arrives...


** Yep.

Well, once the CoGA stops feeding it, getting the whole MHoG home as such a large organised force this year or next pretty much goes out the window, unless the alliance somehow comes up with the food and fodder to supply them all the way home, via the same church controlled canals [who would destroy the locks to prevent such a devastating march through their remaining territory], which seems a bit of a stretch for RFC when it comes to story telling believability.

Given how much of the MHoG is internal police or woefully doomed in battle against the alliance, getting a quarter back to Harchong so soon seems another large stretch, that I'm thinking RFC has other plans.

Such as settling the MHoG ex-serfs on RSA, ex-BS, or ex-eastern KotTL land, and making them citizens etc, so they know and understand self rule etc, so when the North Harchong idiots violate whatever peace treaty, this large well trained 'militia' will be primed and prepared to share all they have learned, and sooner than the remaining CoGA adherents expect, thanks to steam tugs or rails to Zion etc by then.**


Should that happen, I doubt Magwair would survive. That would unbalance the Go4, weakening Duchairn as well, since he's in charge of logistics. At that point Duchairn would be forced to attempt any coup he may have planned with the aid of Captain Phandys. That would result in a civil war among the Temple Guard and the forces controlled by the Inquisition in the temple and Zion. Clyntahn might get what's coming to him, but I don't see how - he has complete control of the large Inquisition forces in the area, as well as the Temple Guard - as far as we know. ;)


** Again keep the time required for all you suggest in perspective, it'll take the better part of a year for the MHoG to go home if it does immediately, of which I have my doubts; NTM there are going to be so many things happening to the CoGA and Go4 by then that singling Magwair out for that will be lost in all the other chaos I can see coming down the road.

For example by the end of this year [897 YoG] the EoC should have produced something near 300,000 M96's, which means they could turn that many old Mahndrayns over to the RSA, which combined with their own production and captured rifles could mean the alliance has over million men equipped with some kind of rifle, while after the MHoG is destroyed or surrendered etc, the Go4 may have half that left since Dohlar will be gone, to try to defend the KotTL, since they're going to abandon the Border States to buy time to build up their replacement armies.

How the Border States respond to such betrayal will also be interesting, but I think the RoS will find extending its western border further westward won't be that hard. 8-) **

Merlin still [i]needs [/i]Clyntahn as much as he hates him, since the Grand Iniquitor never met a dispensation he didn't like as long as it helps the war effort. Having someone like Duchairn in charge, who would be likely to reform the vicarate and cleanse the Inquisition is the [i]last [/i]thing Merlin needs in his attempt to industrialize Safehold and spur innovation. The day that the CoGA is forced to sue for terms is coming, but I expect that will only happen after the ICN sails into Temple Bay and captures the Temple, allowing Merlin and the inner circle to be in position to thwart whatever is lurking in the Temple basement.[/quote]

** Yup.

That's all pretty much a given, assuming Duchairn would survive.

Sorry this took so long.

L


**
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:12 am

lyonheart
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Hi Tootall,

Which is why I hold out hope Ahlverez makes it, which also demonstrates RFC's skills as a storyteller, since I loathed him in MTaT.

I didn't see any typical inquisitors with Ahlverez's army, except possibly in MTaT, but I suspect his intendants may be treated rather better since Merlin etc knows they didn't get the opportunity to apply the jihad in the first place, and maybe were more circumspect as they gained a better perspective during the long campaign, as intendant Sulyvyn Fyrmyn did even though he's a Schuelerite.

Regarding you numbered points:

1) Yes, he retreated, but from Thirsk's snippets, why is well understood, at least in Dohlar, so no harm there.

2) Only after fighting his men's guts out, while Harless et. al. were still ramming their heads into the tree, refusing to learn the obvious.

3) Maybe, given how Dennys's Bishop Executor turned out, I think keeping these alive might be useful for a variety of reasons, while still punishing those known to be guilty of atrocities.

If he makes it back, denouncing him from the pulpit may become too hazardous...

L


tootall wrote:n7axw
If Dohlar surrenders, the inquisitors know they are toast (maybe with peanut butter or jelly) when the EOC gets ahold of them which will probably render any notions of scapegoating Ahlverez mute. (lol)

Must be my week to ponder outcomes for Rainos Ahlverez:
Consider Takeo Kurita, at Letye Gulf off Samar: He decided to retreat when he had his objective within his grasp. The Imperial Japanese Navy thereafter lost all those ships (that were in his force) anyway and to no purpose. Had he continued toward the landing zones he would have lost most of his fleet-but accomplished his mission, doing damage along the way to Oldendorf's 7th fleet. (This does not consider whether or not the complete destruction of the Fleet then would have actually been worse for Japan in the long run)

Back to Ahlverez, he may have to surrender his army, (losing his inquisitors to the vengeful heretics), when they all could have died fighting in the forest-at least- taking some of the enemy with them.

So from Zion, it may look like: 1) He ran 2) He gave up (quit) 3) He surrendered up some of God's holy priests to be murdered.
Furthermore, were I the Inquisition, I'd blame the defeat FROM THE PULPIT, on Ahlverez. That blackens his name in Dohlar and deflects blame from the Church-(and the Inquisition).
("We were stabbed in the back-BETRAYED by those whom we trusted with God's holy work," etc. etc. etc.)
Not that I think RunsFor would do that...
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:28 am

lyonheart
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Hi EdThomas,

I wouldn't surprised if there were at least 40 camps, each of around 40,000 men each, on both sides of the canal, perhaps 5-10 miles apart, thus stretching in a line ~100-200 miles long.

Marching them adjacent to the canal with their supplies could mean a road length over 432 miles long using 2 high roads; each having 20 men in each rank on both sides of the canal [if there are two], having them all march on the road makes it some 40,000 ranks in each, before adding the cavalry's greater length and the intervals that would at least triple that; just consider the command and control problems, ie getting messages to the van or rear, they boggle the mind!

Where in history has anyone ever attempted to control or send such a huge single force by a single (or pair of) road or one canal?

If they don't split it up, its a disaster waiting to happen.

L


EdThomas wrote:
n7axw wrote:When the MOH starts to move, it's going to be strung out like beads on a string. I hope the allies have someone in position for a flanking attack, or even better, cut off their supplies.

Don

Do you mean there will be significant (e.g. greater than one hour) gaps between units?
Road marches would have the usual accordion thing and canal movements would have standard convoy distances, whatever they might be, in a smooth stream.
Last edited by lyonheart on Mon Mar 23, 2015 2:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:32 am

lyonheart
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Hi PeterZ,

Kudos for pointing this out.

I suspected RFC might have injected more such hidden meanings in some of the characters names since Merlin and Nimue etc.

Who knows, Thirsk may end up supporting him for king if Rahnyld IV doesn't have any worthy sons.

Thanks again.

L


PeterZ wrote:Rainos Ahlvarez. Patronymic of Spanish descent. Given name means kingdom in that language. Pray tell, where is Ahlvarez's kingdom? Stretching this logic further out on that limb, the surname means son of Alvar at its roots. Alvar is a good, solid Nordic name. So....kingdom of the conquoring raiders. Perhaps his is the kingdom he conquers?
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