HFQ Official Snippet #20

Rainos Ahlvarez. Patronymic of Spanish descent. Given name means kingdom in that language. Pray tell, where is Ahlvarez's kingdom? Stretching this logic further out on that limb, the surname means son of Alvar at its roots. Alvar is a good, solid Nordic name. So....kingdom of the conquoring raiders. Perhaps his is the kingdom he conquers?

EdThomas wrote:

n7axw wrote:When the MOH starts to move, it's going to be strung out like beads on a string. I hope the allies have someone in position for a flanking attack, or even better, cut off their supplies.

Don

Do you mean there will be significant (e.g. greater than one hour) gaps between units?
Road marches would have the usual accordion thing and canal movements would have standard convoy distances, whatever they might be, in a smooth stream.

What I mean is that they are going to have a very l-o-n-g flank and a very narrow front. IIRC the AOS had something like an 18 mile long flank as they traveled toward Ft. Tairys... Well organized flanking attacks by allied units should be very effective in chopping up the MOH train, given their comparatively slow ability to react and maneuver.

Don

n7axw wrote:When the MOH starts to move, it's going to be strung out like beads on a string. I hope the allies have someone in position for a flanking attack, or even better, cut off their supplies.

<snip>

What I mean is that they are going to have a very l-o-n-g flank and a very narrow front. IIRC the AOS had something like an 18 mile long flank as they traveled toward Ft. Tairys... Well organized flanking attacks by allied units should be very effective in chopping up the MOH train, given their comparatively slow ability to react and maneuver.

Don

Snipers could certainly harry the massive line of soldiers, barges, and wagons as the MOH moves along. I'm sure it will have extensive cavalry units protecting its flanks, although there are certainly places where that won't be possible - like "the sides of the Ambyltyn Hill Cut, no more than four miles east of Sarkyn, [which] towered over four hundred feet above canal level at the cut’s deepest point! And smooth, like polished marble!" If there are any locations like that in Siddarmark (that offer a safe route of retreat!) the allies could certainly make the MOH pay a serious price to fight its way past them, while avoiding a repeat of being overrun like the blocking force that stopped Kaitswyrth's initial thrust into Glacierheart before DE arrived, but died to the last man.

My worry is that the MOH will be split into two or more massive parts and sent after Hanth to save Dohlar, to reinforce Kaitswyrth, and to smash BGV. Granted it's easier to defeat an army of 600,000 that carries "only" 200,000 rifles than one of 1.6 million with 600,000 rifles!

This is the point where I wonder if the Great Canal Raid was a good idea, assuming that Earl Highmount would have arrived in time to stop Wyrshym from curling around the mountains east of the Sylmahn Gap to attack Old Province from the north. If he had, then the hordes of Harchongese would have been very little more than cannon fodder, a massive drain on the CoGA's logistics, and much more dangerous to the local daughters of Mother Church than the enemy during most of their travels. The revulsion that would have resulted among even the TLs in Siddarmark as they were the victims of multiple waves of rape and plunder would have turned them against the jihad, even though most of them wouldn't dare to raise a hand against the CoGA.

Merlin may have some of the same thoughts about the Great Canal Raid's unintended results - and if he does, it will be one of the few times I've managed to accurately predict what's coming. Even if he doesn't, he and the allies are now forced to look at the Harchongese force with a great deal of dismay. Of course the CoGA isn't necessarily overjoyed, since it has to treat the MOH as a two-edged sword. It's basically a swarm of locusts as it travels, especially if the church's logistics force it to forage. Slaves that are turned loose on a local populace who they believe have turned against God are going to commit atrocities (even the local TLs) when they believe God has waived all rules of decency due to the rules of jihad.

The best thing to do with the MOH from the allied viewpoint is to send it home with all its rifles, plenty of ammo, and blood in its eye after learning that not only did its masters intend that none of the serfs that make up the vast majority of its numbers ever return home, but that they intended to use them as cannon fodder! Once the serfs of the MOH learn that their devotion was betrayed, the thirst for vengeance against their masters is going to overwhelm them, and they would be rather seek revenge against those who have lied to and mistreated them rather than die at the hands of the allied forces.

I'm not sure how the allies could get the MOH (or any part of it) to surrender and return home for vengeance without putting Siddarmarkans through a second round of rape and pillage as it retreats. I doubt anyone but Merlin and Archbishop Staynair would feel too badly for the Border States and Harchong as the horde makes its way home, or for the massive slave revolt that would result once it arrives...

Should that happen, I doubt Magwair would survive. That would unbalance the Go4, weakening Duchairn as well, since he's in charge of logistics. At that point Duchairn would be forced to attempt any coup he may have planned with the aid of Captain Phandys. That would result in a civil war among the Temple Guard and the forces controlled by the Inquisition in the temple and Zion. Clyntahn might get what's coming to him, but I don't see how - he has complete control of the large Inquisition forces in the area, as well as the Temple Guard - as far as we know.

Merlin still needs Clyntahn as much as he hates him, since the Grand Iniquitor never met a dispensation he didn't like as long as it helps the war effort. Having someone like Duchairn in charge, who would be likely to reform the vicarate and cleanse the Inquisition is the last thing Merlin needs in his attempt to industrialize Safehold and spur innovation. The day that the CoGA is forced to sue for terms is coming, but I expect that will only happen after the ICN sails into Temple Bay and captures the Temple, allowing Merlin and the inner circle to be in position to thwart whatever is lurking in the Temple basement.

McGuiness wrote:

n7axw wrote:When the MOH starts to move, it's going to be strung out like beads on a string. I hope the allies have someone in position for a flanking attack, or even better, cut off their supplies.

<snip>

What I mean is that they are going to have a very l-o-n-g flank and a very narrow front. IIRC the AOS had something like an 18 mile long flank as they traveled toward Ft. Tairys... Well organized flanking attacks by allied units should be very effective in chopping up the MOH train, given their comparatively slow ability to react and maneuver.

Don

Snipers could certainly harry the massive line of soldiers, barges, and wagons as the MOH moves along. I'm sure it will have extensive cavalry units protecting its flanks, although there are certainly places where that won't be possible - like "the sides of the Ambyltyn Hill Cut, no more than four miles east of Sarkyn, [which] towered over four hundred feet above canal level at the cut’s deepest point! And smooth, like polished marble!" If there are any locations like that in Siddarmark (that offer a safe route of retreat!) the allies could certainly make the MOH pay a serious price to fight its way past them, while avoiding a repeat of being overrun like the blocking force that stopped Kaitswyrth's initial thrust into Glacierheart before DE arrived, but died to the last man.

My worry is that the MOH will be split into two or more massive parts and sent after Hanth to save Dohlar, to reinforce Kaitswyrth, and to smash BGV. Granted it's easier to defeat an army of 600,000 that carries "only" 200,000 rifles than one of 1.6 million with 600,000 rifles!

This is the point where I wonder if the Great Canal Raid was a good idea, assuming that Earl Highmount would have arrived in time to stop Wyrshym from curling around the mountains east of the Sylmahn Gap to attack Old Province from the north. If he had, then the hordes of Harchongese would have been very little more than cannon fodder, a massive drain on the CoGA's logistics, and much more dangerous to the local daughters of Mother Church than the enemy during most of their travels. The revulsion that would have resulted among even the TLs in Siddarmark as they were the victims of multiple waves of rape and plunder would have turned them against the jihad, even though most of them wouldn't dare to raise a hand against the CoGA.

Merlin may have some of the same thoughts about the Great Canal Raid's unintended results - and if he does, it will be one of the few times I've managed to accurately predict what's coming. Even if he doesn't, he and the allies are now forced to look at the Harchongese force with a great deal of dismay. Of course the CoGA isn't necessarily overjoyed, since it has to treat the MOH as a two-edged sword. It's basically a swarm of locusts as it travels, especially if the church's logistics force it to forage. Slaves that are turned loose on a local populace who they believe have turned against God are going to commit atrocities (even the local TLs) when they believe God has waived all rules of decency due to the rules of jihad.

The best thing to do with the MOH from the allied viewpoint is to send it home with all its rifles, plenty of ammo, and blood in its eye after learning that not only did its masters intend that none of the serfs that make up the vast majority of its numbers ever return home, but that they intended to use them as cannon fodder! Once the serfs of the MOH learn that their devotion was betrayed, the thirst for vengeance against their masters is going to overwhelm them, and they would be rather seek revenge against those who have lied to and mistreated them rather than die at the hands of the allied forces.

I'm not sure how the allies could get the MOH (or any part of it) to surrender and return home for vengeance without putting Siddarmarkans through a second round of rape and pillage as it retreats. I doubt anyone but Merlin and Archbishop Staynair would feel too badly for the Border States and Harchong as the horde makes its way home, or for the massive slave revolt that would result once it arrives...

Should that happen, I doubt Magwair would survive. That would unbalance the Go4, weakening Duchairn as well, since he's in charge of logistics. At that point Duchairn would be forced to attempt any coup he may have planned with the aid of Captain Phandys. That would result in a civil war among the Temple Guard and the forces controlled by the Inquisition in the temple and Zion. Clyntahn might get what's coming to him, but I don't see how - he has complete control of the large Inquisition forces in the area, as well as the Temple Guard - as far as we know.

Merlin still needs Clyntahn as much as he hates him, since the Grand Iniquitor never met a dispensation he didn't like as long as it helps the war effort. Having someone like Duchairn in charge, who would be likely to reform the vicarate and cleanse the Inquisition is the last thing Merlin needs in his attempt to industrialize Safehold and spur innovation. The day that the CoGA is forced to sue for terms is coming, but I expect that will only happen after the ICN sails into Temple Bay and captures the Temple, allowing Merlin and the inner circle to be in position to thwart whatever is lurking in the Temple basement.

My notion is that the snipers be angle cannon at a range of two miles as the prequel to a nice solid attack column that smashes its way through the Hachomgian column and comes out the other side.

There is no textev for the inquisition ever being organized as military units. They are the guys that show up at your doorstep at 4 am rather than the milkman.

Don

McGuiness wrote:... - like "the sides of the Ambyltyn Hill Cut, no more than four miles east of Sarkyn, [which] towered over four hundred feet above canal level at the cut’s deepest point! And smooth, like polished marble!"

That sounds like a good place for snipers and indirect artillery fire to create a logjam of dead bodies. I don't know if it would be a practical consideration for the ICA, but Don is correct that the Harchong forces are going to be strung out where they can be defeated in detail before they can consolidate into a homogenous force.

Weird Harold wrote:That sounds like a good place for snipers and indirect artillery fire to create a logjam of dead bodies. I don't know if it would be a practical consideration for the ICA, but Don is correct that the Harchong forces are going to be strung out where they can be defeated in detail before they can consolidate into a homogenous force.

Thanks for the clarification Don.
Speaking in my half-empty voice, 1 Any raiding force has to go, and return a looong distance with only what they're carrying with them. 2 Getting the wounded out will difficult, and we know there will be wounded. 3 The MHOG/COGA commanders will use their cavalry to widely screen their route, canal or road, so it will be virtually, IMHO, impossible to get any large units in to the point where they can do much damage.
One possible tactic would be to start attacks with the only purpose to force the MHOG to stop and deploy. This will slow the march and only expose attacking forces to lightly armed cavalry screen.
The cut through the mountain would be a good place to put a lot of dynamite to use to do some really serious damage to the Canal. Assuming of course Admiral Pei's canal diggers didn't make the cut too wide to drop a jillion tons of rock in it.

Hi Anwi,

Given the alliance has 2-3 month's before the MHoGatA gets to the front, I think the alliance has plenty of time to make things much worse for the Go4, forcing them to split it into at least 4 sub armies as I've suggested so many times before.

Regarding whether they're being ready for war, I guess it depends on your definition of trained troops [a few month's training during the winter really won't prepare them for what they're about to experience, and I suspect RFC is going to highlight many of their inadequacies as they get closer to the front lines.

The AoG did well when the RSA had no rifles, now its trained the MHoGatA to the same standard; albeit warning them about ICA breechloaders, mortars and very superior artillery; but we've seen no indication of any improved tactics, but feel free to suggest some, its been an infrequent thread for years here, and no suggestions have passed muster from the experienced veterans here.

While they may have up to 640,000 rifles, of which no more than 14% are breechloaders; that's only 40% of the whole army with firearms which leaves the rest in as bad shape as the surviving AoG; the Army of Glacierheart and the army of the Sylman, the former Army of Justice/Shiloh and most of the Army of the Seridahn, NTM rather vulnerable to lots of things the AoG/AoS's/Go4 etc don't know the ICA can do yet.

Aside: For the future, can we stop using the confusing term AoS, since there are three CoGA armies with those initials?

NTM what exactly does MOH mean?

MHoG is far more acceptable.

To all posters trying that short cut, if you don't want to spell the whole thing, may I suggest you please use enough consonants to make your meaning clear?

Remembering that Kaitswyrth had only around 9,000 rifles at last report while Symkyn has some 75,000 well armed men, Kaitswyrth and what's left of his army aren't long for this world, nor do I expect Wyrshym to last until May either.

Given all the bad news about to happen to their armies the Go4 will have to split up their last army, making it far easier to defeat in detail.

So no, they don't need to concentrate the ICA all up north.

I've previously explained in probably too much detail how one or two ICA/alliance armies working together could defeat the respective MHoGatA sub armies rather easily, especially given the strategic and tactical mastery the ICA has already demonstrated.

I don't see why Symkyn couldn't provide the viewpoint character needed to eliminate Kaitswyrth, since that's how he was first used in MTaT.

Regarding the less than 8,000 cavalry stragglers that somehow made it to Aivahstyn over 900 miles away, which assuming the TL's in Cliff Peak were able to provide the almost 120 tons of fodder per day, and that they somehow used a high road the whole time so they could travel 60 miles per day, they might have made it in just over 3 5days, which might give us a time hack for how long Ahlverez has been marching.

I think your point was that they weren't pursued like they could or should have been.

We don't know how many started out to follow Hennet, so these could be the few survivors.

Who knows, it could be their report that was the basis for what Thirsk saw, but i don't think they're improving Kaitswyrth's 'AoGlcrhrt' morale [to distinguish it from AoG-God] very much.

Given EHM is west and north of DE, having him go further south seems far less efficient than I'd expect from DE, crossing 2 supply lines etc.

Given DE's preference for celerity from the first time we read his interaction with Merlin, I don't think he's moving very slowly now, especially when he has the enemy on the run.

Granted he has to sort out the POW's, and save as many of the ~60-67,000 captured cavalry mounts (how many have to be put down etc) and possibly send them south to those patriotic provinces to restore, since they're rather rare and valuable in the republic right now, but that's probably another thread.

If EHM takes Dairnyth, then Kaitswyrth and any MHoGatA sub army heading west from the Langhorne Canal will soon starve, providing rather more depth for the republic, and enabling Symkyn to flank any sub army headed east via the repaired canals, and cut its supply line behind it.

If the MHoGatA marches north with it supplies all on barges, on the parallel high roads, 20 men abreast on both [assuming there's one on each side], from the textev concerning the road length of Ahlverez's ~50K army in MTaT was some 27 miles for an army under a hundred thousand means even a 400K sub army would be some 108 miles long, too long to protect its vanguard, center, or rear from all that the alliance can do to such a target.

Of course if they instead all travel in barges, then the 6" angle guns with their new HE shells might sink bunches of barges with just 1-2 hits per barge, each with 800-1000 Harchong aboard; that's before the new smaller river class ironclads sink them as they steam through them.

Since you're worried about the MHoGatA getting to the Hildermoss or points east, suppose the ironclads make an appearance again but this time only to trigger the locks being blown, again draining the canals and leaving the MHoGatA's supply barges stuck; high and dry, unable to be supplied for weeks so they too are facing starvation too soon and have to retreat regardless of what Clyntahn insists is their duty.

When you start thinking about all the ways the alliance can wreck the MHoGatA, so its sheer size becomes almost its worst enemy, I suspect we'll see each sub army destroyed or forced to surrender by a different unique tactic that will demonstrate RFC's brilliance.

L

anwi wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Side points: First, EHM doesn't need to go to Aivahnstyn, which is over 900 miles away or at almost a month, since General Symkyn already has 75,000 men there, almost all with rifles; while traveling 900 miles west would put EHM around 200 miles east of Dairnyth or just another 5-6 days marching, for a far more strategic objective, so which way do you really think he's headed?
[SNIP]
Given DE's probable familiarity with Ahlverez's condition, I suspect he's sent close to half his army or EHM's forward, beyond Fort Sheldyn while he stays to meet Ahlverez.

I agree that Eastshare and High Mount have a strategic decision to take: Reinforce Hanth at the Seridahn or revert back to the northern theatre. For me, the Dohlarans are sidelined already; keeping them contained for now and keep South March an effective "wasteland" with no good military objectives should do the trick.
Simultaneously, the "mighty host" will arrive in two or three months at the borders of Hildermoss Province. You might want to have all the elite troops there where you need them. Thus, it's very likely that - after mopping up around Kharmych - a larger part of both Eastshare's and High Mount's units returns north. I guess it'll be Eastshare to go back to his original theatre via the Branath canal - although that guess is based on RFC's need to have DE there as a viewpoint character to tell the spring campaign against Kaitswyrth.
In that scenario, EHM might stay back to capture Ahlverez.
There's only one caveat here: We know that 8000 stragglers reached Kaitswyrth. That adds up only if there is no hot pursuit of Charisian troops (dragoons in particular) on the way north (or if more Desnairians escape the trap than I assume and they were harried north...). So, if I'm correct, DE took his time. But I'm not seeing him invading Dohlar or heading to Dairnyth at all.

Hi Don,

MOH?

Otherwise quite right.

I've pointed out many times that even a 400K sub army is a disaster waiting to happen if it tries to use only the high road going where they want.

So they won't be traveling any 40 miles per day etc.

Furthermore, since they don't know the full range of the angle guns, especially with the new powder etc, how wide can they march or patrol their flanks when the infantry are in the barges?

80,000 cavalry trying to cover the flanks of an army marching that's over 100 miles long would mean only a couple hundred per mile assuming no more than half were scouting the front, which against a regiment of dragoons is just asking for massive casualties, from all sorts of nasty tactics.

L

n7axw wrote:When the MOH starts to move, it's going to be strung out like beads on a string. I hope the allies have someone in position for a flanking attack, or even better, cut off their supplies.

Don

Hi Don,

Again he may have some of the 50+K Port Royal force so he may easily outnumber Rychtyr even if Ahlverez joins him.

L

n7axw wrote:

anwi wrote:*quote="lyonheart"*
Side points: First, EHM doesn't need to go to Aivahnstyn, which is over 900 miles away or at almost a month, since General Symkyn already has 75,000 men there, almost all with rifles; while traveling 900 miles west would put EHM around 200 miles east of Dairnyth or just another 5-6 days marching, for a far more strategic objective, so which way do you really think he's headed?
[SNIP]
Given DE's probable familiarity with Ahlverez's condition, I suspect he's sent close to half his army or EHM's forward, beyond Fort Sheldyn while he stays to meet Ahlverez.
*quote*

I agree that Eastshare and High Mount have a strategic decision to take: Reinforce Hanth at the Seridahn or revert back to the northern theatre. For me, the Dohlarans are sidelined already; keeping them contained for now and keep South March an effective "wasteland" with no good military objectives should do the trick.
Simultaneously, the "mighty host" will arrive in two or three months at the borders of Hildermoss Province. You might want to have all the elite troops there where you need them. Thus, it's very likely that - after mopping up around Kharmych - a larger part of both Eastshare's and High Mount's units returns north. I guess it'll be Eastshare to go back to his original theatre via the Branath canal - although that guess is based on RFC's need to have DE there as a viewpoint character to tell the spring campaign against Kaitswyrth.
In that scenario, EHM might stay back to capture Ahlverez.
There's only one caveat here: We know that 8000 stragglers reached Kaitswyrth. That adds up only if there is no hot pursuit of Charisian troops (dragoons in particular) on the way north (or if more Desnairians escape the trap than I assume and they were harried north...). So, if I'm correct, DE took his time. But I'm not seeing him invading Dohlar or heading to Dairnyth at all.

At this point, Hanth's shortage of people makes him vulnerable. I hope he does get reinforced soonest.

Don

Rather wildly impractical, IMV: they are indeed enormously strung out, but that string runs all the way back to the Bedard Canal. It's possible, in fact quite likely, that the head of it didn't even get as far as Sarkyn. IOW, completely out of the reach of the Allies, since not only do they need to sweep aside the AoG, they have to overrun the Border States. Judging by the 400-foot cut, that's some seriously rugged terrain down there. Slow going, IOW.

Weird Harold wrote:

McGuiness wrote:... - like "the sides of the Ambyltyn Hill Cut, no more than four miles east of Sarkyn, [which] towered over four hundred feet above canal level at the cut’s deepest point! And smooth, like polished marble!"

That sounds like a good place for snipers and indirect artillery fire to create a logjam of dead bodies. I don't know if it would be a practical consideration for the ICA, but Don is correct that the Harchong forces are going to be strung out where they can be defeated in detail before they can consolidate into a homogenous force.