HFQ Official Snippet #20

lyonheart wrote:Side points: First, EHM doesn't need to go to Aivahnstyn, which is over 900 miles away or at almost a month, since General Symkyn already has 75,000 men there, almost all with rifles; while traveling 900 miles west would put EHM around 200 miles east of Dairnyth or just another 5-6 days marching, for a far more strategic objective, so which way do you really think he's headed?
[SNIP]
Given DE's probable familiarity with Ahlverez's condition, I suspect he's sent close to half his army or EHM's forward, beyond Fort Sheldyn while he stays to meet Ahlverez.

I agree that Eastshare and High Mount have a strategic decision to take: Reinforce Hanth at the Seridahn or revert back to the northern theatre. For me, the Dohlarans are sidelined already; keeping them contained for now and keep South March an effective "wasteland" with no good military objectives should do the trick.
Simultaneously, the "mighty host" will arrive in two or three months at the borders of Hildermoss Province. You might want to have all the elite troops there where you need them. Thus, it's very likely that - after mopping up around Kharmych - a larger part of both Eastshare's and High Mount's units returns north. I guess it'll be Eastshare to go back to his original theatre via the Branath canal - although that guess is based on RFC's need to have DE there as a viewpoint character to tell the spring campaign against Kaitswyrth.
In that scenario, EHM might stay back to capture Ahlverez.
There's only one caveat here: We know that 8000 stragglers reached Kaitswyrth. That adds up only if there is no hot pursuit of Charisian troops (dragoons in particular) on the way north (or if more Desnairians escape the trap than I assume and they were harried north...). So, if I'm correct, DE took his time. But I'm not seeing him invading Dohlar or heading to Dairnyth at all.

When the MOH starts to move, it's going to be strung out like beads on a string. I hope the allies have someone in position for a flanking attack, or even better, cut off their supplies.

Don

anwi wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Side points: First, EHM doesn't need to go to Aivahnstyn, which is over 900 miles away or at almost a month, since General Symkyn already has 75,000 men there, almost all with rifles; while traveling 900 miles west would put EHM around 200 miles east of Dairnyth or just another 5-6 days marching, for a far more strategic objective, so which way do you really think he's headed?
[SNIP]
Given DE's probable familiarity with Ahlverez's condition, I suspect he's sent close to half his army or EHM's forward, beyond Fort Sheldyn while he stays to meet Ahlverez.

I agree that Eastshare and High Mount have a strategic decision to take: Reinforce Hanth at the Seridahn or revert back to the northern theatre. For me, the Dohlarans are sidelined already; keeping them contained for now and keep South March an effective "wasteland" with no good military objectives should do the trick.
Simultaneously, the "mighty host" will arrive in two or three months at the borders of Hildermoss Province. You might want to have all the elite troops there where you need them. Thus, it's very likely that - after mopping up around Kharmych - a larger part of both Eastshare's and High Mount's units returns north. I guess it'll be Eastshare to go back to his original theatre via the Branath canal - although that guess is based on RFC's need to have DE there as a viewpoint character to tell the spring campaign against Kaitswyrth.
In that scenario, EHM might stay back to capture Ahlverez.
There's only one caveat here: We know that 8000 stragglers reached Kaitswyrth. That adds up only if there is no hot pursuit of Charisian troops (dragoons in particular) on the way north (or if more Desnairians escape the trap than I assume and they were harried north...). So, if I'm correct, DE took his time. But I'm not seeing him invading Dohlar or heading to Dairnyth at all.

At this point, Hanth's shotage of people makes him vulnerable. I hope he does get reinforced soonest.

Don

anwi wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Side points: First, EHM doesn't need to go to Aivahnstyn, which is over 900 miles away or at almost a month, since General Symkyn already has 75,000 men there, almost all with rifles; while traveling 900 miles west would put EHM around 200 miles east of Dairnyth or just another 5-6 days marching, for a far more strategic objective, so which way do you really think he's headed?
[SNIP]
Given DE's probable familiarity with Ahlverez's condition, I suspect he's sent close to half his army or EHM's forward, beyond Fort Sheldyn while he stays to meet Ahlverez.

I agree that Eastshare and High Mount have a strategic decision to take: Reinforce Hanth at the Seridahn or revert back to the northern theatre. For me, the Dohlarans are sidelined already; keeping them contained for now and keep South March an effective "wasteland" with no good military objectives should do the trick.
Simultaneously, the "mighty host" will arrive in two or three months at the borders of Hildermoss Province. You might want to have all the elite troops there where you need them. Thus, it's very likely that - after mopping up around Kharmych - a larger part of both Eastshare's and High Mount's units returns north. I guess it'll be Eastshare to go back to his original theatre via the Branath canal - although that guess is based on RFC's need to have DE there as a viewpoint character to tell the spring campaign against Kaitswyrth.
In that scenario, EHM might stay back to capture Ahlverez.
There's only one caveat here: We know that 8000 stragglers reached Kaitswyrth. That adds up only if there is no hot pursuit of Charisian troops (dragoons in particular) on the way north (or if more Desnairians escape the trap than I assume and they were harried north...). So, if I'm correct, DE took his time. But I'm not seeing him invading Dohlar or heading to Dairnyth at all.

At this point, Hanth's shortage of people makes him vulnerable. I hope he does get reinforced soonest.

Don

Very Nice, Lyonheart. I forgot about that last 50,000 leaving Chisholm. If they take the Salthar Canal, they could send the Rivers to clear a landing in the Duchy of Salthar.

My thought was the central duchies and Salthar would vie for filling the vacuum left by the chaos of the allies attacks on the border and coastal duchies. The end result is that there would be no central authority to keep the peace.

Assuming those 50,000 do take Silk Town and the Salthar Canal, the duchy of Salthar is threatened. The ICN is raiding the Western coast of Dohlar and DE, EHM and Hanth are relentlessly moving in from the Siddermarkian border. It would seem to me that the longer Dohlar resists, the less able they will be to maintain order if the allies leave them to their own devices. Whoever ends up in control of Dohlar would have to pacify the brigands and other lawless elements that will have arisen.

Yes, Ahlvarez will have the reputation to organize forces to begin the pacification. I just don't see Dohlar giving up before the ICN and Corisande let 30k-50k troops raiding the Western coast thoroughly destroy that infrastructure. What they leave behind will not support any sizable shipping volume for years to come. They simply cannot leave that infrastructure behind unless they plan to occupy. Barring occupation the allies cannot leave a potential supply line to support the GH in a southern campaign.

That destroyed infrastructure means many unemployed harbor workers looking for livelihood. Farmers will have no place to send their goods beyond what would be needed for local consumption. More workers at loose ends. The allies march South-Westward from Siddermark will send more refugees towards the inner duchies. Now toss in the Salthar prong and that's even more refugees fleeing towards the apparent safety of the inner duchies.

Seems to me that there would be a huge incentive for someone to take over for the current leadership for no other reason that to surrender before the allies complete the destruction of Dohlar. I doubt this will be a protracted, multi-factioned affair; either the putsch will be quick and clean or it will fail. So, with the Salthar prong in place, I see Dohlar either surrendering early or resisting until they turn into a morass of chaos for Ahlvarez to clean up after his release. I doubt the allies can generate any goodwill with Dohlar. their need to defeat the GH will leave Dohlar a bleeding mess.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Having such strong support among the army veterans will be quite a potent power base for Ahlverez, regardless whether he escapes or not.

If Dohlar drags out its surrender/accommodation until summer, by which time the ICN is raiding its whole long coast, the remaining nobility will have too much on their plates keeping what they have, to waste too much time scrambling for the national leadership; if the ICN isn't raiding specifically to remove them, while an alliance army from Salthar advances on Gorath, with Hanth etc driving from Siddermark, the terms they might get being far less.

L

PeterZ wrote:What happens if Ahlvarez is captured with his men and kept with all the other POWs captured in the Kyplinger? I suspect that Ahvarez will turn that group into a coherent unit. Fast forward to the destruction of Dohlar's coastal cities by the KH VIIs and the shredding of Dohlar's armed forces. Dohlar can turn into Somalia as the petty aristos fight for supremacy or an effective leader turns up. Thirsk is either dead or does not have enough pull with the army to gather a sufficient force to consolidate power. How much is Ahlvarez and his coherent force worth then? Quite a lot if the goal is to make Dohlar stable.

Very Nice, Lyonheart. I forgot about that last 50,000 leaving Chisholm. If they take the Salthar Canal, they could send the Rivers to clear a landing in the Duchy of Salthar.

My thought was the central duchies and Salthar would vie for filling the vacuum left by the chaos of the allies attacks on the border and coastal duchies. The end result is that there would be no central authority to keep the peace.

Assuming those 50,000 do take Silk Town and the Salthar Canal, the duchy of Salthar is threatened. The ICN is raiding the Western coast of Dohlar and DE, EHM and Hanth are relentlessly moving in from the Siddermarkian border. It would seem to me that the longer Dohlar resists, the less able they will be to maintain order if the allies leave them to their own devices. Whoever ends up in control of Dohlar would have to pacify the brigands and other lawless elements that will have arisen.

Yes, Ahlvarez will have the reputation to organize forces to begin the pacification. I just don't see Dohlar giving up before the ICN and Corisande let 30k-50k troops raiding the Western coast thoroughly destroy that infrastructure. What they leave behind will not support any sizable shipping volume for years to come. They simply cannot leave that infrastructure behind unless they plan to occupy. Barring occupation the allies cannot leave a potential supply line to support the GH in a southern campaign.

That destroyed infrastructure means many unemployed harbor workers looking for livelihood. Farmers will have no place to send their goods beyond what would be needed for local consumption. More workers at loose ends. The allies march South-Westward from Siddermark will send more refugees towards the inner duchies. Now toss in the Salthar prong and that's even more refugees fleeing towards the apparent safety of the inner duchies.

Seems to me that there would be a huge incentive for someone to take over for the current leadership for no other reason that to surrender before the allies complete the destruction of Dohlar. I doubt this will be a protracted, multi-factioned affair; either the putsch will be quick and clean or it will fail. So, with the Salthar prong in place, I see Dohlar either surrendering early or resisting until they turn into a morass of chaos for Ahlvarez to clean up after his release. I doubt the allies can generate any goodwill with Dohlar. their need to defeat the GH will leave Dohlar a bleeding mess.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Having such strong support among the army veterans will be quite a potent power base for Ahlverez, regardless whether he escapes or not.

If Dohlar drags out its surrender/accommodation until summer, by which time the ICN is raiding its whole long coast, the remaining nobility will have too much on their plates keeping what they have, to waste too much time scrambling for the national leadership; if the ICN isn't raiding specifically to remove them, while an alliance army from Salthar advances on Gorath, with Hanth etc driving from Siddermark, the terms they might get being far less.

L

PeterZ wrote:What happens if Ahlvarez is captured with his men and kept with all the other POWs captured in the Kyplinger? I suspect that Ahvarez will turn that group into a coherent unit. Fast forward to the destruction of Dohlar's coastal cities by the KH VIIs and the shredding of Dohlar's armed forces. Dohlar can turn into Somalia as the petty aristos fight for supremacy or an effective leader turns up. Thirsk is either dead or does not have enough pull with the army to gather a sufficient force to consolidate power. How much is Ahlvarez and his coherent force worth then? Quite a lot if the goal is to make Dohlar stable.

PeterZ wrote:What happens if Ahlvarez is captured with his men and kept with all the other POWs captured in the Kyplinger? I suspect that Ahvarez will turn that group into a coherent unit. Fast forward to the destruction of Dohlar's coastal cities by the KH VIIs and the shredding of Dohlar's armed forces. Dohlar can turn into Somalia as the petty aristos fight for supremacy or an effective leader turns up. Thirsk is either dead or does not have enough pull with the army to gather a sufficient force to consolidate power. How much is Ahlvarez and his coherent force worth then? Quite a lot if the goal is to make Dohlar stable.

Whether Ahlverez makes it home or spends some time as a POW, he's most likely got a role to play in Dohlar after the war. Since Dohlar may be the first of the mainland realms to officially come to terms with the EoC, he may be repatriated sooner than he suspects. Keep in mind that he thought "I owe Thirsk an apology" when he realized that his relative who led the Dohlaran galley fleet in OAR to its complete destruction was every bit as arrogant and stupid as the Desnairan leadership of the AoS.

I don't think RFC mentioned that fleeting thought just to compare the arrogant incompetence that led both commanders and their forces to utter ruin. I think it was a foreshadowing that Thirsk and Ahlverez will have a joint role in the future of Dohlar.

Cayleb may or may not shorten King Rahnyld by a head, but some aggressive vengeance is in order to protect any future allied POWs. If a king of one of the great mainland realms who was duly appointed by the vicarate can be executed for turning POWs over to the Inquisition, what ruler or military commander would dare to turn POWs over to the Inquisition in the future? (Especially if Mab's letter to Clyntahn has been posted on a lot of walls?)

As the ranking Dohlaran POW, Ahlverez would be ashamed by the drastic contrast between how he and his men are treated in contrast to how Dohlar treated Gwylym Manthyr and his men. Although Thirsk did his best to protect them, he would have been executed if he'd defied the lawful order to hand them to the Inquisition. So the head of the NoG and Dohlar's premier general both see the Inquisition as the monster it is, in stark contrast to how the EoC treats its prisoners - and that it takes prisoners!

Ahlverez clearly feels the same betrayal and loathing for the Inquisition that Thirsk feels, since he's convinced that Clyntahn will make a scapegoat of him if he manages to lead his ragged army home. I'm sure the ICA will be more than happy to merely incarcerate him and his forces for the duration if it captures them, but if the tables were turned, Ahlverez would be forced by the psychotic Inquisition to slaughter any allied prisoners to the last man. He also knows that the Charisians still follow the Laws of War, since he left his wounded behind and the ICA cared for them as if they were their own.

Thirsk and Ahlverez both feel the shame of defeat and the fear of the Inquisition, which wishes to make scapegoats of them both. Thirsk longs to escape, and Ahlverez is beginning to wonder if it's worth it for him to accomplish the daunting task of leading his army home, merely to be arrested by the Inquisition.

Clyntahn is clearly his own worst enemy, but he has no understanding that his fanatical zeal to destroy "heresy" wherever it can be found (or invented) is affecting the military commanders of the CoGA. Someday soon that's going to bite him on the butt.

Either Alhverez gets home with his troops or as a released POV. That, of course, assumes that he doesn't become a casualty.

I don't think that the Inquisition will be able to scapegoat anyone, by the time he gets back either way. If he gets back before Dohlar surrenders, the politics of getting his people home are going to work in his favor. In that event Dohlar will be isolated from Zion and the local inquisitors will be looking to themselves with both their lines of communication cut and their authority severely weakened since the Dohlarans themselves will no longer be particularly cooperative. They will gladly blame Desnair, particularly since the Dohlarans don't really like Desnair anyhow.

If Dohlar surrenders, the inquisitors know they are toast (maybe with peanut butter or jelly) when the EOC gets ahold of them which will probably render any notions of scapegoating Ahlverez mute.

As for Clyntahn, he is shortly going to have larger issues to deal with as both of the Temple's main armies are taken off the board, leaving only the Harchongians between him and the heretics.

Don

n7axw
If Dohlar surrenders, the inquisitors know they are toast (maybe with peanut butter or jelly) when the EOC gets ahold of them which will probably render any notions of scapegoating Ahlverez mute. (lol)

Must be my week to ponder outcomes for Rainos Ahlverez:
Consider Takeo Kurita, at Letye Gulf off Samar: He decided to retreat when he had his objective within his grasp. The Imperial Japanese Navy thereafter lost all those ships (that were in his force) anyway and to no purpose. Had he continued toward the landing zones he would have lost most of his fleet-but accomplished his mission, doing damage along the way to Oldendorf's 7th fleet. (This does not consider whether or not the complete destruction of the Fleet then would have actually been worse for Japan in the long run)

Back to Ahlverez, he may have to surrender his army, (losing his inquisitors to the vengeful heretics), when they all could have died fighting in the forest-at least- taking some of the enemy with them.

So from Zion, it may look like: 1) He ran 2) He gave up (quit) 3) He surrendered up some of God's holy priests to be murdered.
Furthermore, were I the Inquisition, I'd blame the defeat FROM THE PULPIT, on Ahlverez. That blackens his name in Dohlar and deflects blame from the Church-(and the Inquisition).
("We were stabbed in the back-BETRAYED by those whom we trusted with God's holy work," etc. etc. etc.)
Not that I think RunsFor would do that...

n7axw wrote:When the MOH starts to move, it's going to be strung out like beads on a string. I hope the allies have someone in position for a flanking attack, or even better, cut off their supplies.

Don

Do you mean there will be significant (e.g. greater than one hour) gaps between units?
Road marches would have the usual accordion thing and canal movements would have standard convoy distances, whatever they might be, in a smooth stream.