Kudos for the excellent points.
The fact that Ahlverez is effectively going around three sides of a square or a 'U' or 'V' route to Fort Sheldon that has or should have given DE and EHM plenty of time to get ahead of him, being kept fully informed by Merlin etc.
Side points: First, EHM doesn't need to go to Aivahnstyn, which is over 900 miles away or at almost a month, since General Symkyn already has 75,000 men there, almost all with rifles; while traveling 900 miles west would put EHM around 200 miles east of Dairnyth or just another 5-6 days marching, for a far more strategic objective, so which way do you really think he's headed?
Keep in mind, Kaitswyrth had only ~9,000 rifles left after DE drove him back 100 miles back into Westmarch [and all replacements went to the MHoGatA], while his HQ in Aivahnstyn is 200 miles further back, which makes Kaitswyrth's command and communications capability even worse than they could be.
Given Symkyn's evident competence, and being several hundred miles south of Guarnak, Kaitswyrth will be toast very soon without any help from EHM.
We still don't have a time hack for his march, so Ahlverez could have been marching for 2 or 3 5days already, and from your point for his location is some 600 miles from Fort Sheldyn or at least 3-4 more 5days, the latter more likely given his men's weary state, more than enough time for DE and EHM to get in front of him, if they aren't already.
Given DE's probable familiarity with Ahlverez's condition, I suspect he's sent close to half his army or EHM's forward, beyond Fort Sheldyn while he stays to meet Ahlverez.
Again I don't see Hanth settling down for a 'siege' of Evrytyn.
Last time, he was clearly on the defensive, with only his ~7500 men, not he has closer to 20,000 minimum, if not more from the still 'missing' 50,000+ Port Royal convoy we've yet to here from, so he may equal if not also outnumber Rychtyr, which as Thirsk pointed out to his officers is a losing proposition, so Hanth with superior firepower can maneuver Rychtyr out of his fortifications by threatening his canal.
I can't help wondering if DE acting on Cayleb's instructions, might offer Ahlverez terms that permit his men to go home if Dohlar stops fighting the alliance, in effect holding his men ransom for a change in Dohlar's war on the alliance, even if it's a temporary truce, which sprouts all sorts of interesting potential possibilities.
For example, Dohlar doesn't have an army to oppose EHM if he's headed for Dairnyth, and might even not try given the advantages such an excuse would give them, even evacuating the city as the "only thing they could do" since they had no army to stop him etc...
Or, suppose Rychtyr accepted such an offer if only for 6 month's or 200 days etc, King Rahnyld might object but it might then be too late if Rychtyr is already retreating.
Intriguing times.
L
McGuiness wrote:*quote="Louis R"*What's your definition of 'best map we have available'? Kind of hard to know what you're saying if we don't know what you're looking at
If it's the one Pokermind posted for us upthread, I'd guess from the text that he's probably a lot further toward the hilt of the sword - somewhere within 100 miles of the center of the line from Malyktyn to the top of the east upright on the H. That's a lot closer to what his thoughts indicate, IMV. He'd have been moving fairly quickly up to the point where he left the high road. He didn't start slogging until then, and would still have been in fairly good shape for the first 5-6 days after leaving the road. Progress is bad now, and getting worse quickly, so I'm guessing that he covered a good 2/3 of the distance he's marched in half the elapsed time, or even less. He'll be further out into the South March than the description we just saw would suggest, and probably further north than you seem to be thinking.
*quote="lyonheart"*"Howdy everybody",
< snip >
Fourth, despite the several chapters of HFQ, Ahlverez is still "over 300 miles from Thesmar" (NTM almost 300 from Kharmych) or further than he was at the end of LaMA; so it may have only been 7-8 days since LaMA ended, so he's approximately near the northeast side of the 'o' in 'South March Lands' on the best map we have available.
< snip >
L*quote**quote*Using the map from LaMA, since there doesn't seem to be a link to a map from Pokermind in my browser, I'd peg Ahlverez's position somewhere in the area of the "T" in the "South March Lands." His next destination is Malys, which is 80 miles southwest of his current position, which would be 30-40 miles directly south of the "S" in "South March." From there he intends to move northwest towards Fort Sheldyn, which will require him to cross the Cheryk - Fort Tairys high road, passing slightly north of the center of the cross on the shield to get there. Evidently his lousy map must show some sort of road leading to Fort Sheldyn from Malys, which has five roads forking from it.
His army is in no shape to march 500 miles to Alyksberg, and we don't know if Fort Sheldyn or Syrk to the north of it on the high road are still in CoGA hands. Brahnselyk and Cheyvair were both captured by the Army of Cliff Peak, lead by Earl Highmount, and we don't know how far south the AoCP troops went before the majority of them pulled back to prepare for an assault on Kaitswyrth as soon as the weather allows.
LaMA is fairly clear that the Dohlarans were rushing supplies and troops forward to Evrytyn to hold that position, not to stop Hanth's advance. He's likely to dig in and shell the place until the Delthak arrives, and then things will get interesting. Hanth will either cut the canal behind Evrytyn, forcing a Dohlaran retreat, or the Delthak will blast through the defenses and force the Dohlarans to blow the locks and retreat. Either way, there may be no friendly faces anywhere nearby when (and if) Ahlverez finally reaches Fort Sheldyn. It's possible that the Dohlarans there pulled back, as did those at Syrk when Hanth moved up from the south when Brahnselyk fell to the north.
At best Ahlverez is aiming for a narrow corridor that's not garrisoned or picketed by allied troops. As he explained, “The way I see it, our best bet is to strike northwest from Malys, through Thyssyk, across the high road, and then through Fyrnyst and on up to Fort Sheldyn. Once we cross the high road, we break almost due north for Alyksberg.”
Although it isn't shown on the map in LaMA, the online map from MTaT shows a high road from Fort Sheldyn to Alyksberg. If the area northwest of the fort is still in CoGA hands, Ahlverez could possibly make his escape, especially if the fort is still held by CoGA forces and he can take its garrison and their weapons with him.
That's his plan, which surprisingly takes into account Hanth's offensive all the way to Evrytyn, which I thought began at roughly the same time as the Battle of Kyplynger. I'm surprised that Ahlverez knows about it.
The bad news for Ahlverez - well, more bad news... Duke Eastshare is undoubtedly moving tens of thousands of troops from Kharmych and will have the entire high road picketed all the way to Cheryk. Seijin Zhevons could drop by anytime to give him the location of the shattered remains of Ahlverez's army, which would force Ahlverez to surrender rather than face a pitched battle. Even if the Dohlaran scouts that are looking for him with the news of Hanth's offensive find him, he already seems to have that news, and their information of whether his intended escape route will work is going to be outdated by the time he receives it.
At this point DE is several times more mobile using the high road than Ahlverez, and his army is intact, well fed, and flush with victory. For the first time the ICA actually outnumbers the enemy force it faces, and it's not short of weapons or ammunition, but the Dohlarans are.
Once DE links up with Hanth, any corridor of retreat will close and Ahlverez will have no chance of escape. If that hasn't happened already, it will within the next couple of five days. That will vastly simplify DE's logistics as well, since he'll be supplied through Thesmar.
Ahlverez is toast. If he makes it home he'll be executed as a scapegoat, so the best use of him as a character is as the senior Dohlaran POW, and later as part of a regency council with Thirsk after the EoC captures and executes King Rahnyld for turning Gwylym Manthyr and the rest of the Charisian POWs over to the Inquisition. I do realize that's an aberration from how the EoC has treated enemy leaders in the past, but Cayleb and Sharleyan have sworn that Rahnyld will pay personally for that action. Plus the EoC isn't trying to annex Dohlar.
Don't expect the EoC to even try to conquer Dohlar, or even cross the Dohlar/Siddarmark border except to conduct small raids. Dohlar has 97 million people vs. 72 million for the entire EoC. It's also the most technologically advanced of the mainland realms. The EoC simply doesn't have the troops to garrison it, couldn't possibly hold on to it, and it doesn't need to invade it to win the war.
Unlike most of the other mainland realms, Dohlar does have the option to surrender, since its geography makes that possible. It's surrounded on the three sides by the Gulf of Dohlar, and is bordered on the east by Siddarmark (which is out for blood) and the Grand Duchy of Silkiah, which is neutral and located across the apparently impenetrable Salthar mountains. In other words, Dohlar can be effectively separated from CoGA control and invasion by any CoGA forces. The EoC will soon have complete control of the Gulf of Dohlar, and no CoGA army is going to be able to get past Hanth and DE on the Dohlaran border with Siddarmark to threaten internal Dohlaran politics.
Desnair and South Harchong will also be out of the war in the next few months, once the Haarahld VIIs arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar. Those countries won't surrender, but they won't contribute much to the war effort either. Desnair's land route through Silkiah is cut off, and its days of building commerce raiders are coming to a messy end due to Merlin's "network of spies." South Harchong will be completely cut off from the war once the ICN controls the entire Gulf of Dohlar.
Keep running, Sir Ahlverez. Hanth and Duke Eastshare are waiting to save you and your troops from the wrath of the Inquisition!
