HFQ Official Snippet #20

McGuiness wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:I'd like to add: Merlin impersonating Thirsk for the apparent assassination. Thirsk is whisked away; his heart-torn but Church-loyal assassin can report a successful operation; Nimue gets the family out; happy endings.

Great idea, but unfortunately a PICA can only be reconfigured in a limited fashion. Quoting Sharleyan: “Well, I must say you’re much … solider-looking in person,” Sharleyan observed ... "And you really don’t look very much like Merlin. But there’s … something ... A family resemblance, I suppose.”

“Bone structure, probably,” Nimue replied ... “He altered his a bit when he decided he had to be a man instead of a woman, but it’s still basically the same, really, except for the jawline.”

Since there's been no mention of a PICA imitating the appearance of anyone else, which the TF certainly would have frowned upon, while RFC has gone into great detail regarding the limitations of a PICA's ability to alter its appearance, I highly doubt that either Merlin or Nimue could impersonate Thirsk. Merlin is too tall and Nimue is too short for starters, and there isn't much variation available in a PICA's height. (Which was a major reason that Nimue is much shorter than Merlin - she can imitate both a woman or a man, as long as she wear heels.)

I think Thirsk will manage his own escape, with the help of Ahlvyn Khapahr. With Thirsk "dead" there's no reason for the Inquisition to keep his family in "protective custody." At that point they can quietly slip away and join his corpse in exile.

There's also the possibility that the ICN attack on Gorath Bay may result in a reshuffling of Dohlaran royalty, since King Rahnyld may end up hanging by the neck until dead. (If Cayleb is feeling charitable!)

Should something like that occur, a regency council will be needed, and who better to serve on it than the heroic commander of the NoG who actually defeated several Charisian war galleons, and whose researchers added greatly to the defense during the Battle of Gorath Bay?

I'd toss Ahlverez into the mix as well, once he's no longer a POW. That won't occur until the EoC and Dohlar reach terms. That may seem to be a stretch at the moment, but Dohlar is about to have its armies decimated and chased back to its borders. It's going to be cut off from all the other CoGA forces, and it faces a resurgent Siddarmark out for blood on its eastern border. Finally, it may very well lose its king and have an enemy fleet in Gorath Bay able to shell most of the city with impunity.

In that case reaching terms with the allies will be a very good idea, especially since Clyntahn isn't going to have an easy time punishing "cowards" and "traitors" when he can't even send assassins into the country.

The terms? Here's some possibilities:

1. Dohlar renounces the jihad.
2. War reparations to Siddarmark.
3. Reestablishment of trade.
4. Limitations on the size of the Dohlaran military.
5. A regency council with Thirsk as a member, since
he's known to be an honorable man.
6. A possible arranged marriage with Zhan or
Zhanayt, depending on the age and sex of Rahnyld's
children. (But I wouldn't want to be the one
married off to a Dohlaran, since I doubt Dohlar
will be quick to forgive the hanging of their king.
Perhaps Cayleb will only require him to abdicate.)
7. Recognition of the CoC as an alternative way to
God, with a mandate requiring religious toleration
and allowing CoC congregations in Dohlar.

Feel free to add your own terms, or tell me why some I've suggested won't work. For example, the marriage of state may be impossible if Rahnyld is executed, and recognition of the CoC as the official reformist church may simply spark a religious civil war within Dohlar. Cayleb and Merlin are smart enough not to ask for terms that will only make things worse.

this last snippet reminds me of Napoleon's retreat from Moscow.... Miserable conditions, lack of proper clothing, food, weapons, and ammunition.

At least the army is not being harassed by Cossacks.... just my thoughts... thanks for the Snippet.

McGuiness wrote:

Louis R wrote:What's your definition of 'best map we have available'? Kind of hard to know what you're saying if we don't know what you're looking at

If it's the one Pokermind posted for us upthread, I'd guess from the text that he's probably a lot further toward the hilt of the sword - somewhere within 100 miles of the center of the line from Malyktyn to the top of the east upright on the H. That's a lot closer to what his thoughts indicate, IMV. He'd have been moving fairly quickly up to the point where he left the high road. He didn't start slogging until then, and would still have been in fairly good shape for the first 5-6 days after leaving the road. Progress is bad now, and getting worse quickly, so I'm guessing that he covered a good 2/3 of the distance he's marched in half the elapsed time, or even less. He'll be further out into the South March than the description we just saw would suggest, and probably further north than you seem to be thinking.

Using the map from LaMA, since there doesn't seem to be a link to a map from Pokermind in my browser, I'd peg Ahlverez's position somewhere in the area of the "T" in the "South March Lands." His next destination is Malys, which is 80 miles southwest of his current position, which would be 30-40 miles directly south of the "S" in "South March." From there he intends to move northwest towards Fort Sheldyn, which will require him to cross the Cheryk - Fort Tairys high road, passing slightly north of the center of the cross on the shield to get there. Evidently his lousy map must show some sort of road leading to Fort Sheldyn from Malys, which has five roads forking from it.

His army is in no shape to march 500 miles to Alyksberg, and we don't know if Fort Sheldyn or Syrk to the north of it on the high road are still in CoGA hands. Brahnselyk and Cheyvair were both captured by the Army of Cliff Peak, lead by Earl Highmount, and we don't know how far south the AoCP troops went before the majority of them pulled back to prepare for an assault on Kaitswyrth as soon as the weather allows.

LaMA is fairly clear that the Dohlarans were rushing supplies and troops forward to Evrytyn to hold that position, not to stop Hanth's advance. He's likely to dig in and shell the place until the Delthak arrives, and then things will get interesting. Hanth will either cut the canal behind Evrytyn, forcing a Dohlaran retreat, or the Delthak will blast through the defenses and force the Dohlarans to blow the locks and retreat. Either way, there may be no friendly faces anywhere nearby when (and if) Ahlverez finally reaches Fort Sheldyn. It's possible that the Dohlarans there pulled back, as did those at Syrk when Hanth moved up from the south when Brahnselyk fell to the north.

At best Ahlverez is aiming for a narrow corridor that's not garrisoned or picketed by allied troops. As he explained, “The way I see it, our best bet is to strike northwest from Malys, through Thyssyk, across the high road, and then through Fyrnyst and on up to Fort Sheldyn. Once we cross the high road, we break almost due north for Alyksberg.”

Although it isn't shown on the map in LaMA, the online map from MTaT shows a high road from Fort Sheldyn to Alyksberg. If the area northwest of the fort is still in CoGA hands, Ahlverez could possibly make his escape, especially if the fort is still held by CoGA forces and he can take its garrison and their weapons with him.

That's his plan, which surprisingly takes into account Hanth's offensive all the way to Evrytyn, which I thought began at roughly the same time as the Battle of Kyplynger. I'm surprised that Ahlverez knows about it.

The bad news for Ahlverez - well, more bad news... Duke Eastshare is undoubtedly moving tens of thousands of troops from Kharmych and will have the entire high road picketed all the way to Cheryk. Seijin Zhevons could drop by anytime to give him the location of the shattered remains of Ahlverez's army, which would force Ahlverez to surrender rather than face a pitched battle. Even if the Dohlaran scouts that are looking for him with the news of Hanth's offensive find him, he already seems to have that news, and their information of whether his intended escape route will work is going to be outdated by the time he receives it.

At this point DE is several times more mobile using the high road than Ahlverez, and his army is intact, well fed, and flush with victory. For the first time the ICA actually outnumbers the enemy force it faces, and it's not short of weapons or ammunition, but the Dohlarans are.

Once DE links up with Hanth, any corridor of retreat will close and Ahlverez will have no chance of escape. If that hasn't happened already, it will within the next couple of five days. That will vastly simplify DE's logistics as well, since he'll be supplied through Thesmar.

Ahlverez is toast. If he makes it home he'll be executed as a scapegoat, so the best use of him as a character is as the senior Dohlaran POW, and later as part of a regency council with Thirsk after the EoC captures and executes King Rahnyld for turning Gwylym Manthyr and the rest of the Charisian POWs over to the Inquisition. I do realize that's an aberration from how the EoC has treated enemy leaders in the past, but Cayleb and Sharleyan have sworn that Rahnyld will pay personally for that action. Plus the EoC isn't trying to annex Dohlar.

Don't expect the EoC to even try to conquer Dohlar, or even cross the Dohlar/Siddarmark border except to conduct small raids. Dohlar has 97 million people vs. 72 million for the entire EoC. It's also the most technologically advanced of the mainland realms. The EoC simply doesn't have the troops to garrison it, couldn't possibly hold on to it, and it doesn't need to invade it to win the war.

Unlike most of the other mainland realms, Dohlar does have the option to surrender, since its geography makes that possible. It's surrounded on the three sides by the Gulf of Dohlar, and is bordered on the east by Siddarmark (which is out for blood) and the Grand Duchy of Silkiah, which is neutral and located across the apparently impenetrable Salthar mountains. In other words, Dohlar can be effectively separated from CoGA control and invasion by any CoGA forces. The EoC will soon have complete control of the Gulf of Dohlar, and no CoGA army is going to be able to get past Hanth and DE on the Dohlaran border with Siddarmark to threaten internal Dohlaran politics.

Desnair and South Harchong will also be out of the war in the next few months, once the Haarahld VIIs arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar. Those countries won't surrender, but they won't contribute much to the war effort either. Desnair's land route through Silkiah is cut off, and its days of building commerce raiders are coming to a messy end due to Merlin's "network of spies." South Harchong will be completely cut off from the war once the ICN controls the entire Gulf of Dohlar.

Keep running, Sir Ahlverez. Hanth and Duke Eastshare are waiting to save you and your troops from the wrath of the Inquisition!

tootall wrote:(Pretty sad when one quotes oneself) ANYway,
tootall wrote:
Well, I have to admit how wrong I was about the condition of Ahlverez's troops.
I recall that he took his supply train with him when he began his retreat and that he had several "intact" units left from the disaster. I assumed that he still had a "force in being". Guess not.

So I was glancing thru LaMA and came on this passage:
"...less than 8000 stragglers from Earl Hennet's cavalry-plus, of course, the gallant earl and his bodyguard- had escaped to the Army of Glacierheart's protection."

Given the woeful state of Ahlverez's force, I can't believe the earl's men were in much better condition-supply-wise. And how dismal is their impact on the morale our dear Bishop Kaitswyrth's command? That command that already got their tails kicked by Eastshare. That command that must now know that Eastshare just kicked some more tail- this time to the tune of: Let's destroy an army of a quarter of a million men.
So Hennet's cavalry came in ill supplied, and as unassailable evidence of another terrible defeat. It probably would have been better for the morale of Kaitswyrth's troops if they'd not escaped at all. At least the defeat could have been kept secret from the rank and file.

To quote McGuiness again- Things are "bleek."

saber964 wrote:

tootall wrote:(Pretty sad when one quotes oneself) ANYway,
tootall wrote:
Well, I have to admit how wrong I was about the condition of Ahlverez's troops.
I recall that he took his supply train with him when he began his retreat and that he had several "intact" units left from the disaster. I assumed that he still had a "force in being". Guess not.

So I was glancing thru LaMA and came on this passage:
"...less than 8000 stragglers from Earl Hennet's cavalry-plus, of course, the gallant earl and his bodyguard- had escaped to the Army of Glacierheart's protection."

Given the woeful state of Ahlverez's force, I can't believe the earl's men were in much better condition-supply-wise. And how dismal is their impact on the morale our dear Bishop Kaitswyrth's command? That command that already got their tails kicked by Eastshare. That command that must now know that Eastshare just kicked some more tail- this time to the tune of: Let's destroy an army of a quarter of a million men.
So Hennet's cavalry came in ill supplied, and as unassailable evidence of another terrible defeat. It probably would have been better for the morale of Kaitswyrth's troops if they'd not escaped at all. At least the defeat could have been kept secret from the rank and file.

To quote McGuiness again- Things are "bleek."

Actually no. IIRC Earl Hennet had a bodyguard of better fed solders and horses when he took off for the AoGH. Too quote an old TV show Hennet ''as some 'Splanin to do.'

tootall wrote:

Louis R wrote:Hennet's bodyguard isn't likely to have been anything like 8000 strong. 80 is more like it.

The Desnairian cavalry was being much better treated than the infantry - after all, they're simply better. Nonetheless, IIRC, some 30% had already lost their horses, so the ones who made it up to Aivahnstyn started out in better than average condition, but are still going to be in pretty rough shape.



Hennet "and friends" were in good condition when they started. The other troops were in better shape than the infantry- but were still not good. It's a long way to Aivahnstyn. That's why I quoted "me" about Ahlverez. If his men are in bad shape, the Desniarians with their woeful supply situation are a lot worse. To repeat: It's a long way to Aivahnstyn.
If I recall, Kaithswyrth's troops are well supplied. Seeing the staggering straggling condition of the Desnairian cavalry will be a shock.

And yes, the earl has some "splainin to do".

And yes:
"It's all Ahlverez's fault!!!"
"I only rode all this way so that you'd know about that Dohlarian traitor!!"
"I wanted to stay and fight, but my duty required that I report the truth in person!!"
etc. etc. etc.