HFQ Official Snippet #20

lyonheart wrote:Hi SighsHeavily,

Greetings and welcome to the forums, please enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum.

Dohlar is a kingdom, and demoting it to princedom status will not endear the alliance to the Dohlaran public, whatever the nobility might have agreed to, ie seeing a prince has less authority than a king, making their positions seem more secure.

Making Thirsk king has been suggested before, but given his limited support among the nobility and the powers that be, that seems much too risky for the alliance.

Making him co-regent with Ahlverez seems more acceptable to the Dohlaran public to me.

L

SighsHeavily wrote:...Since most readers respect Thirsk and wished he weren't playing for the wrong team, getting him to defect has long been a fond dream of ours...

Quite. Many of us DO wish Thirsk would stop musing in cathedrals about how bad the team he is playing for is (Midst Toil Etc.) and figure out a way out. However, getting him out of Dohlar would have been an early to mid-game strategy for the EoC in my opinion...and the game is moving on rapidly. Frankly, while it is easy to get bogged in the details when getting the story in agonizing little snippets, Himself is writing a major story arc and the Empire has to hold and control what it acquires by whatever means...and without consuming too much scarce person-power. In the past, this has meant doing practical deals with conquered princes and/or replacing them (a la Zebediah) with reliable parties like General C. However, soon, at least some on this forum speculate, Charis will be in a position to occupy Dohlar Very good. Who then, however, to have as a tributary prince in Dohlar? Just as Prince Hector appointed a local Zebedian noble as "Grand Duke" after conquering that Princedom, the Empire may well wish a Dohlaran prince of their own choosing but less likely to be seen as a foreign interloper by the locals. At that juncture, one may ask: "Who better than the irritatingly competent, honorable, "knows he has no future," and increasingly Zion-sceptical Thirsk?" Thus, in this scenario, no one spirits out Thirsk or his family. At most a team of scout snipers (or similar) is sent on ahead during the confusion of invasion to take out the temple guards/inquisitors watching Thirsk's family. Once they are safe and the Princedom is held the Empire can negotiate with the Earl - they do not even have to defeat his fleet as a fleet with no home port will soon be no fleet at all.

On the above note, one might speculate that one fine day the King of Delferahk may find a letter on his pillow from his loving niece, now married into the Ahrmahk family, suggesting to her Uncle that it is time to get into the boat with the winners and out of the water with the Temple losers. Again, this is in accordance with the type of realpolitik themes already used by the redoubtable Mr. Weber in this series. Now that might be a real blow to the Grand Inquisitor! Thirsk as Prince followed by Delferahk's change of allegiance. After all, how much territory does the EoC take and how many princedoms does it acquire before there is a rush to the exits by the remaining rulers of Safehold? Hmmmm....?

Dear lyonheart:

Old Tilman is fine with me. Thank you for noting that a very long time 'lurker in branches' has emerged and thank you for the greetings. As for "Kingdom" - I ought to have been clearer. NO original title of any subsidiary realm of the Empire has any real meaning...and only two people can be Emperor and Empress of the Empire. That said, the local title is not very relevant in the grand scheme - whether the King of Tarot or the Prince of Emerald or the "Grand Duke" of Zebediah (a former Princedom) all of these lesser rulers are nobles and princes of the Empire, FIRST. Indeed, I point to the fact that the Prince of Emerald was specifically granted a very high precedence status amongst the nobles of the Empire as part of the deal by which Emerald became part of the Empire. It did not matter that Tarot had a King when they joined the Empire etc., Prince Nahrmahn had higher precedence - it was and is the precedence among the Imperial nobility that counts. Furthermore, Machiavelli in Il Principe refers to rulers as "Princes" - to distinguish those who actually rule from others regardless of their actual title (and there were some odd ones in the [not so...] good old days...). I have been unclear and apologize for that but when I refer to a "prince" I mean firstly an actual ruler and secondly, in the instance of Safehold, the ruler of one of the constituent realms of the Empire.

As for a co-rulership in Dohlar post-conquest? These are inevitably messy and impractical ...even when there are no pre-existing personal tensions. The nobility as trouble makers post-conquest? Most of those will flee or have their wings clipped - nor do the few great nobles of a small place such as Dohlar have much in the way of standing levies of their own (actually none in all likelihood). Frankly, the sooner any surviving nobles make trouble the sooner they can be culled by the Empire.

Other than the nobles there are the local equivalent of the gentry, the skilled working classes any small nascent "middle class" and the mobile populace (probably well north of 90% of the population) - we do not know their precise opinions, nor how they really feel about the policies of the Temple - however, Thirsk actually speculates on this very point in Chapter 13 of Midst Toil Etc. and notes both creeping reformism and the possibility of doubt in the general populace as to what is going on. I do note that even conquered populations a la Corisande and in a sense, Zebediah, have been remarkably complacent post-conquest or acquisition. Speculating on precisely how such a populace might react depends on many factors including reformist sentiment, disgust with the Temple, disgust with the current King (who is a profligate among other things) etc. It also depends on what surprises Mr. Weber may be saving for us poor groundlings to be amazed at! Overall, I would suggest that a unitary ruler and one who has gained the love, or at least respect, of many of the populace by a) insisting on pay for his pressed sailors and b) treating his crews well amongst other things might surprise you - especially in a small Kingdom.

To conclude, I never meant to suggest that a successor to King R would be 'demoted' to the status of "Prince" - the Empire, to date, has maintained all pre-existing local titles. What I meant (and did not clarify, alas) in my first post was that all these local rulers whatever their local titles are first and foremost Princes of the Empire.

Again thank you for your greetings, apologies for my lamentable lack of clarity and best wishes to all on these forums who put so much time and effort into attempting to divine the Weberian tea-leaves. Since there are no possible thanks for Mr. Weber for his work that those more eloquent than I have not already expressed over the years I will confine myself to remarking that I join many others - I am sure - in hoping that things go supremely well for Mr. Weber and his family personally.

Petrus

...they also serve who stand and wait...

It seems to me that the Church of God Awaiting has been quite competent to date in disallowing their forces from being cut off. Kaitsworth was able to keep his forces from being cut off in the Ahstynwood Forest allowing him to withdraw them to Aivhanstyn. Ahlverez got his forces out of the Kyplinger Forest, and is trying to withdraw to Alykberg. Rychtyr got his forces away from Thesmar and is withdrawing up the Seridahn. Wyrshym has been extremely responsive to reports of movement in Midhold Province, moving forces in response to The Northland Gap in order to avoid being cut off. The only one who's really been trapped has been Harless, and his forces were hampered by the death of their commander at a critical moment. Is it surprising that even with Charis's extreme advantage in mobility that they have yet to be able to completely isolate an opposing force? The navy has been much more successful, at Craig Reach and Darcos Sound.

~Tonto

What's your definition of 'best map we have available'? Kind of hard to know what you're saying if we don't know what you're looking at

If it's the one Pokermind posted for us upthread, I'd guess from the text that he's probably a lot further toward the hilt of the sword - somewhere within 100 miles of the center of the line from Malyktyn to the top of the east upright on the H. That's a lot closer to what his thoughts indicate, IMV. He'd have been moving fairly quickly up to the point where he left the high road. He didn't start slogging until then, and would still have been in fairly good shape for the first 5-6 days after leaving the road. Progress is bad now, and getting worse quickly, so I'm guessing that he covered a good 2/3 of the distance he's marched in half the elapsed time, or even less. He'll be further out into the South March than the description we just saw would suggest, and probably further north than you seem to be thinking.

lyonheart wrote:"Howdy everybody",

< snip >
Fourth, despite the several chapters of HFQ, Ahlverez is still "over 300 miles from Thesmar" (NTM almost 300 from Kharmych) or further than he was at the end of LaMA; so it may have only been 7-8 days since LaMA ended, so he's approximately near the northeast side of the 'o' in 'South March Lands' on the best map we have available.

< snip >
L

I wonder if there's any chance of Aivah Pahrsahn's organisation getting Thirsk and his family out from under the baleful eyes of their Inquisition guards?

I'm wondering if we're giving Aivah too much credit.
That is to say, there is a limit on how much one person can control. And it is essential that the people that she controls are trustworthy. (Recall the demise of the Circle.) There are only so many people who can do that sort of work. And they have to be identified and then rigorously trained.
It appears that her main focus was in Zion.(her main network) And, apparently, to some extent, in Siddermark-which she may have viewed as a counter weight to the Church. We have not had any evidence that she had anyone on the "out islands". I would not expect that she has a "network" in Dohlar or Harchong or the Desnairian Empire.
The critical thing is competent trained and trustworthy agents. Over the years, one leak, one clue that there's an unknown "player" out there would have started the inquisition on the hunt. Large numbers of agents or agents in many places seems unwise.
I don't think she has the resources to pull off a rescue in Dohlar.

lyonheart wrote:

Kudos for the excellent points.

Thank you.

lyonheart wrote:

Letting Ahlverez exhaust his men might be cruel but it might also put them in the proper frame of mind to surrender when the trap is sprung.

If Ahlverez surrendered to the Alliance, the cruelty would end. His choice. Besides, war is cruel by itself in this context.

I do wonder if one option for the Alliance is to just block his passage. If he can't go forward, and is running out of food, then he might just surrender without a fight.

lyonheart wrote:

Besides ending serfdom and Rahnyld IV's rule, whatever demands should the alliance make?

- Expel all Schulerites from Dohlar? (Myke can be an exception )
- Turn over all Inquisitors to the Alliance?
- Cease the "we own the Gulf of Dohlar" crap?
- Permit trade on Charisian bottoms (although if I were a Charisian captain, I wouldn't want to go there).
- No barge traffic through Dohlar for CoGA and it's allies.

-- Bob G

Thank you for the snippet!

So, Ahlverez made a plan. A pretty good plan, actually, provided he was in a regular-style fantasy story. What he does not know is that he's in sf story, so I agree with the rest of you here - he's going to surrender soon. OTOH, the idea somebody gave here intrigued me - the one about Ahlverez having an access to place where Thrisk's family is. Perhaps...

Ooooh... Perhaps Ahlverez and Merlin/Abraim/Nimue could strike some kind of a deal? After all, Abraim is known for breaking in "unenterable" places and having fruitful conversations with no one outside the wiser. Given how Merlin is unsettled by all the bloodshed he believes he has caused, perhaps it's time for some under-the-table actions? Maybe some kind of a deal along the lines of "you help us bring Dohlar to allies - we let your army pass safely". Of course, for Ahlverez it would be a classical deal with the devil, but then we have already seen that he's getting more and more likely to put the lives of his man over his personal fate.

Also...

anwi wrote:Ten little Dohlarans were walking through South March,
one got lost in the Kyplyngyr, nine still on the march;
Nine little Dohlarans arrived at Tairys late,
One fell to Duke Eastshares men and then there were only eight,
Eight little Dohlarans ...

Dear my, this is just lovely. May I suggest, in the light of this snippet:
Eight little Dohlarans were marching way, way south,
One stayed behind with cannons, seven kept marching on;
Seven little Dohlarans decided to go north...

In response to the notion of picking rulers for Dohlar or making Dohlar subsidiary to the Empire, in my opinion, all of that would be unwise. The EOC's only interest in Dohlar is to knock or negotiate Dohlar's exit from the war.
Once that's accomlished, the rest should be up to the Dohlarans themselves. If they are still willing to tolerate ole Rahnauld, that is their own business.

Don

Kakai wrote:

anwi wrote:Ten little Dohlarans were walking through South March,
one got lost in the Kyplyngyr, nine still on the march;
Nine little Dohlarans arrived at Tairys late,
One fell to Duke Eastshares men and then there were only eight,
Eight little Dohlarans ...

Dear my, this is just lovely. May I suggest, in the light of this snippet:
Eight little Dohlarans were marching way, way south,
One stayed behind with cannons, seven kept marching on;
Seven little Dohlarans decided to go north...

You may, but I'll raise you a rhyme (well sort of) and a stanza.

Ten little Dohlarans were walking through South March,
one got lost in the Kyplyngyr, nine still on the march;
Nine little Dohlarans arrived at Fort Tairys too late,
One fell to Duke Eastshare's men and then there were only eight,
Eight little Dohlarans were on the flight, almost craven,
One stayed with the cannons and then there were only seven,
Seven little Dohlarans were toiling through scrub, mud in the mix,
one was hungry and looked for food and then there were only six,
Six little Dohlarans ...

Well, know it depends on what happens next. But it should rhyme on five...

Hi Joat42,

Kudos for the excellent points!

I think most posters are in agreement RFC took the snippet out of context that would explain things, since it seems so contrary to what we think we know about Thirsk and his relationship with his officers.

L

Joat42 wrote:Re RFC's negative on Thirsk and family getting rescued by Aivah's organization.

Faking his death may indeed be the best or quickest way to get his daughters released, though he doesn't plan to truly defect, just hide from the inquisition somewhere.

The problem with Merlin impersonating anyone is his height, Nimue would be closer to most Safeholdians.

L


I have posited the theory that Thirsks family could be saved by Aivah's organization quite a while ago, but thinking about it now I doubt it's very realistic.

The same goes for Merlin rescuing his family, however if Thirsk is dead there is no need for the inquisition to keep them under their thumb.

So, we have a couple of scenarios that might be possible:

1. Thirsk gets killed because the enmity from a certain Dohlarian noble which sees his chance to get his revenge.
2. Thirsk gets killed because the inquisition thinks he is of no further use.
3. Thirsk plans his own "death" as a way to defect. See LAMA Aug 896 - Ch IX and his thoughts about Ahlvyn Khapahr and his daugthers.
4. Thirsk plans his own death as a way to save his family from the inquisition.
5. Merlin impersonates Ahlvyn Khapahr and feigns killing Thirsk as a way to help him defect.

In my opinion, Thirsk's death by Ahlvyn Khapahr hand is very fishy since we know that Thirsk thrusts him implicitly and we have the reference to that Ahlvyn is up to something that Thirsk can't tell his daughters about (see point 3 above for reference).

lyonheart wrote:I think most posters are in agreement RFC took the snippet out of context that would explain things, since it seems so contrary to what we think we know about Thirsk and his relationship with his officers.

Fair to say. Quite a bombshell, too.
But: RFC let Hector live despite him being mortally wounded. And RFC put a full stop at a position where the sentence went on in the book - sneaky guy.
Granted, he might do that again, but the chances are more than even that Thirsk actually has been betrayed.
Equally, I see no reason for Merlin, Aivah or anyone else on the Charisian side to go for Thirsk's family. There are so many innocents dying every day, why does Thirk's family matter more?
And let's face it: There's no gain here if Thirsk is not able to break Dohlar free from the CoGA.
So while I can understand some rooting for our good villain, I don't think RFC will be too emotional about his destiny.